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Text of the page (random words):
mount of bias may be more than offset by a substantial gain in precision more importantly when a population exhibits significant heterogeneity the average treatment effect estimated from a sample may differ considerably from the average treatment effect in the wider population if that is the case the value of extrapolating findings from trial samples to other populations becomes highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials involve only a single randomisation the properties that would emerge over an infinite sequence of repeated randomisations provide little reassurance about the validity of the one experiment that is actually conducted it is difficult to see why knowledge of what would happen under circumstances that will never occur should make us more confident about the conclusions drawn from the single study we have performed the problem faced by many randomistas when they underestimate heterogeneity and interaction effects is not merely one of external validity when attempting to transfer regression results across periods contexts or populations it is also an internal problem affecting the millions of regression estimates produced by economists each year ideally controlled experiments can tell us with certainty what causes what effects but only given the appropriate closure assumptions making valid extrapolations from experiments whether ideal accidental natural or quasi experimental to different settings populations or target systems is far from straightforward since trials are rarely repeated properties such as unbiasedness and balance in repeated sampling tell us nothing directly about any particular trial it works there is not evidence that it will work here causes identified in an experimental setting must still be shown to possess an export warrant to the target population or system the underlying causal assumptions must be justified and without such a warrant the value of even the most rigorous and precise methods and of knowledge that holds only on average is severely limited rcts have little reach beyond describing what has occurred in the past from the perspective of future decision making and public policy they are often of limited value because they cannot tell us which background factors were held constant when the intervention was implemented nor do rcts generally provide evidence that their results are exportable to other target systems they cannot simply be assumed to yield generalisable findings the fact that something works somewhere for someone is no guarantee that it will work for us here or indeed that it works more generally randomisation may in the right circumstances help us draw causal conclusions however it is neither necessary for establishing causality nor sufficient for securing scientific validity randomisation guarantees nothing just as observational studies are vulnerable to various forms of bias so too are randomised studies and trials share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky model reification in statistics and econometrics 15 jun 2026 at 10 57 posted in economics statistics econometrics 2 comments conventional statistical methods assume that within measured covariate levels the data come from surveys with purely random selection from a sharply defined population or from experiments with purely random treatment assignment in which the researcher has complete control and understanding of every important aspect of those who entered the analysis and how they were treated the methods thus provide logically sound inferences only in ideal cases rather than correct answers for our actual imperfect applications they are however widely applied and misinterpreted in studies that fall far short of their assumptions we may view each statistical analysis as a thought experiment in a fictional small world or toy example sharply restricted by its simplifying assumptions the questions that motivated the study must be translated properly into this fictional world statistical methods then answer the questions via mathematical deductions from the assumptions but those answers apply with logical force only within a fictional world in which all the assumptions hold sander greenland since econometrics aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects it needs many assumptions limiting model assumptions in economic science always have to be closely examined because if we are to show that the mechanisms or causes we isolate in our models are stable in the sense that they do not change when we export them to our target systems we must also demonstrate that they do not hold only under ceteris paribus conditions if they do they are of limited value to explanations and predictions of real economic systems unfortunately real world social systems are usually not governed by stable causal mechanisms or capacities the kinds of laws and relations that econometrics has established are about entities in models that presuppose invariant atomistic and additive causes but when causal mechanisms operate in the real world they mostly do so in ever changing and unstable ways if economic regularities obtain they do so as a rule only because we have engineered them for that purpose outside man made nomological machines they are rare or even non existent model reification in econometrics is evident when properties that belong strictly to models are treated as if they were real world features econometricians standardly aim to export model based mechanisms to target systems without change this metaphor itself implies reification the gap between model assumptions and messy reality is a gap that econometrics often forgets treating engineered regularities as inherent economic laws is reification pure and simple share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky why democracy outperforms dictatorship 14 jun 2026 at 10 35 posted in statistics econometrics 1 comment the power of diversity is not merely a social ideal it is a mathematical fact the diversity prediction theorem demonstrates that bringing together people who think differently generates a measurable performance advantage imagine that you fill a transparent jar with 1000 jelly beans and ask a group of students to estimate how many are inside amanda guesses 980 bob 1050 clark 1020 and david 940 individually their estimates are relatively inaccurate however when we treat the students as a collective the average of their guesses is 997 5 remarkably close to the true number the diversity prediction theorem explains why collective error average individual error prediction diversity the accuracy of a group depends both on the average quality of its members judgements and on the extent to which their predictions differ from one another if the students are sufficiently diverse making independent estimates based on different information experiences or perspectives much of the individual error effectively cancels out producing a collective estimate that is closer to the truth from an economic perspective the diversity prediction theorem challenges conventional models of rationality and efficiency diversity is not simply a matter of fairness or representation it generates a tangible advantage the most resilient and innovative economies are those that harness the power of a wide range of perspectives experiences and ways of thinking the diversity prediction theorem also provides a theoretical argument for why democratic systems often have an advantage over dictatorships they can harness the knowledge and perspectives of many different people reducing collective error and improving decision making it does not prove that democracy is always superior but it helps explain why inclusive and participatory political systems standardly outperform rule by a single leader or a narrow elite share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky tidöregeringens dårhusmässiga ekonomiska visdom 11 jun 2026 at 15 57 posted in economics politics society 4 comments det är inte troligt att alla som med gillande upprepa talet om att vi måste spara och därför inte kunnat skaffa arbete åt de arbetslösa ha gjort klart för sig vad deras ståndpunkt innebär den leder nämligen till den fantastiska slutsatsen att arbete är en lyx att arbete åt alla medborgare är något man kan kosta på sig i rika och välmående samhällen men som långt överstiger krafterna hos ett fattigt land som sverige och överhuvudtaget hos alla de av krisen drabbade länderna ju svårare krisen blir ju mera arbetslösheten växer desto mindre blir inkomsterna i hela samhället desto mer måste alltså kravet på sparsamhet skärpas och desto omöjligare skulle det bli att sätta igång arbeten inför den växande arbetslösheten skulle medborgarna alltså bekymrat men undergivet säga till varandra vi äro för fattiga för att kunna arbeta och ju fattigare vi bli desto mindre har vi råd att arbeta det finns intet folk med sitt sunda förnuft i behåll som i längden kan slå sig till ro med en ekonomisk visdom av detta dårhusmässiga slag ernst wigforss i den grundläggande modell som används av dagens mainstream makroekonomer är arbetsmarknaden alltid i jämvikt den representativa agenten maximerar sin nyttofunktion genom att anpassa sitt arbetsutbud penninghållning och konsumtion över tid som svar på förändringar i räntan förväntad livstidsinkomst eller reallön viktigast av allt om reallönen av någon anledning avviker från sitt jämviktsvärde justerar agenten sitt arbetsutbud så att när reallönen är högre än jämviktsvärdet ökar arbetsutbudet och när reallönen är under jämviktsvärdet minskar arbetsutbudet i denna modellvärld är arbetslöshet alltid ett optimalt val som svar på förändrade förhållanden på arbetsmarknaden därmed är arbetslöshet helt frivillig att vara arbetslös är något man optimalt väljer en slags förlängd semester även om denna bild av arbetslöshet som en slags självvald optimalitet för de flesta framstår som fullständigt absurd verkar tidöpartierna ha fullt ut anammat denna walt disney världsbild av varför vi har den tredje högsta arbetslösheten i eu enligt färsk statistik från scb fortsätter arbetslösheten i sverige att stiga från en redan hög nivå och uppgår nu till nio procent detta borde vara en tydlig signal om hur illa den ekonomiska politiken fungerar i dag trots detta lyser diskussionerna om den oacceptabelt höga arbetslösheten nästan helt med sin frånvaro i medierna med tanke på att sverige en gång i tiden var en internationell förebild för framgångsrik sysselsättningspolitik är denna tystnad närmast skandalös sänkta löner och lägre ersättningar räddar varken jobb eller konkurrenskraft tvärtom ökar allmänna lönesänkningar risken för stigande arbetslöshet keynes visade redan på 1930 talet att denna politik var en återvändsgränd resultatet blev massarbetslöshet världen över en generell politik för lägre löner skulle dessutom kunna utlösa en farlig spiral fallande priser ökade reala skuldbördor och en skulddeflationskris med minskade investeringar och stigande arbetslöshet kort sagt dörren till en ny depression skulle stå på glänt istället för att verkligen göra rejäla arbetsmarknadssatsningar för att få ned den rekordhöga arbetslösheten väljer tidöregeringen att minska på bidrag till redan utsatta familjer folk framför allt de med invandrarbakgrund sägs frivilligt avstå från att etablera sig på arbetsmarknaden och istället leva på de bidrag man får om man skaffar flera barn sänker man bidragen kommer de här flerbarnsföräldrarna att få det sämre och därför helt rationellt välja att göra rätt för sig och etablera sig på arbetsmarkanden ja vad ska man säga om denna dårhusmässiga verklighetsuppfattning man tager sig för pannan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship tidöregeringens dårhusmässiga ekonomiska visdom comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent comments jan wiklund on arbetslösheten inte st lars on 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