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ts a similar goal for 2019 by default we plan to continue with our relatively low level of focus and resource deployment in other areas e g macroeconomic stabilization policy the 2019 progress 2020 plans post confirms this we also wrote by default we plan to continue with our relatively low level of focus and resource deployment in other areas e g macroeconomic stabilization policy other grants included the center for global development global health and development california yimby land use reform the international refugee assistance immigration policy employ america macroeconomic stabilization policy and the center for election science other the 2019 progress 2020 plans post sets a similar goal for 2020 by default we plan to continue with our relatively low level of focus and resource deployment in other areas e g macroeconomic stabilization policy the 2020 progress 2021 plans confirms this we also wrote by default we plan to continue with our relatively low level of focus and resource deployment in other areas e g macroeconomic stabilization policy our giving in causes beyond those listed above remained at comparatively low levels grants in these areas included the center for global development immigration policy employ america macroeconomic stabilization policy mercy corps immigration policy the international refugee assistance project immigration policy and yimby law land use reform and it says the same for 2021 by default we plan to continue with our relatively low level of grantmaking in other areas e g macroeconomic stabilization policy how the evolution of grantmaking in migration policy compares with other cause areas certain cause areas have been prioritized by open philanthropy this prioritization can be seen in the annual progress reports and is also reflected when we look at the pattern of grantmaking example areas include ai safety animal welfare and biosecurity and pandemic preparedness some indicators of continued focus in these areas include at least a few grants in 2021 large amount of annual grantmaking at least several million a year diversity of grantees large numbers of distinct grantees identification as a high priority area in blog posts and public materials migration policy clearly isn t in league with these but perhaps it s better to compare migration policy with other areas that are more structurally similar land use reform and macroeconomic stabilization policy here is what the comparison indicates all three areas get a similar treatment in open philanthropy s annual progress plans report migration policy has slightly higher overall spend across the years though with the dubious distinction of a lot of exit grants which is more evidence of open philanthropy scaling back in the area land use reform like migration policy has had a relatively quiet last couple of years although the amount donated hasn t fallen much the diversity of organizations receiving grants in recent years has reduced however it doesn t seem to have had explicitly announced exit grants and one of the factors causing infrequent granting is the long timeframes for grants meaning less frequent renewal so there isn t that much change to the number of organizations being supported if you consider whether they are stilll within the timeframe of a previous grant the graphic here helps visualize this macroeconomic stabilization policy relatively speaking is teeming with activity in terms of diversity of grantees my overall assessment is that migration policy is pretty comparable with land use reform though with slight pattern differences macroeconomic stabilization policy is a little ahead right now factors influencing the reduced involvement when open philanthropy published its labor mobility cause report back in may 2013 it considered the area to have high potential similar cause reports were published for other areas over time some of these areas took off with open phil deciding to spend much more on them and others such as migration policy and land use reform continued at maintenance levels what happened in the intervening years that affected this let s understand a bit about how open phil evaluates causes and then look both at how their general thinking has evolved and their specific learnings in the migration policy space importance neglectedness and tractability and botecs open phil follows a framework similar to the framework of importance neglectedness and tractability they want to pick important causes that have been neglected by other funders and are tractable the initial cause report established migration policy as important but was ambivalent about the questions of neglectedness and tractability over the years open phil has acquired more evidence on neglectedness and tractability particularly tractability of the kinds of areas where money can move things forward one of the practices followed commonly in open philanthropy s internal grant writeups is that of botecs back of the envelope calculations that roughly estimate the cost effectiveness of a grant botecs incorporate the ideas of importance neglectedness and tractability all into a single formula in addition beyond individual grants open philanthropy uses similar cost effectiveness calculations to inform how much to focus on particular cause areas evolution of the bar for grants in thinking about different buckets of money allocation open philanthropy separates long termist grantmaking from near termist grantmaking recently renamed global health and wellbeing and further separates human centric grantmaking from animal centric grantmaking the near termist human centric group of grants includes several areas such as global health and development scientific research immigration policy land use reform and macroeconomic stabilization policy one key evolution in open philanthropy s thinking particularly as it applies to near termist human centric grantmaking is in the bar that grants must satisfy in terms of the cost effectiveness multiplier expected this evolution is described in detail in the 2019 blog post givewell s top charities are increasingly hard to beat as the blog post describes open philanthropy s original bar for cost effectiveness was that it should beat out the 100x multiplier expected for unconditional cash transfers however by the time of the 2019 blog post open philanthropy is considering a bar of 500 1 500x comparable with givewell top charities the raising of the bar is a reflection of greater confidence in the cost effectiveness estimates underlying givewell s top charity selection as well as more confidence that there is enough room for more funding for these charities to use up in a review of past botecs this led to the conclusion that out of 33 grants whose internal writeups including ex ante botecs all passed the original 100x bar but only 8 of the 33 passed the 1000x bar a predicted consequence of this raising of the bar would be a reduction in grantmaking in near termist human centric areas including criminal justice reform migration policy land use reform and macroeconomic stabilization policy however the blog post disavows any immediate major changes to grantmaking patterns we are still in the process of thinking through the implications of these claims and we are not planning any rapid changes to our grantmaking at this time we currently plan to continue making grants in our current focus areas at approximately the same level as we have for the last few years while we try to come to more confident conclusions about the balance of considerations above as holden outlined in a recent blog post a major priority for the next couple years is building out our impact evaluation function we expect that will help us develop a more confident read on our impact in our most mature portfolio areas and accordingly will place us in a better position to approach big programmatic decisions we will hopefully improve the overall quality of our botecs in other ways as well if after building out this impact evaluation function and applying it to our work to date we decided to substantially reduce or wind down our giving in any of our current focus areas we d do so gradually and responsibly with ample warning and at least a year or more of additional funding as much as we feel is necessary for a responsible transition to our key partner organizations we have no current plans to do this and we know funders communicating openly about this kind of uncertainty is unusual and can be unnerving but our hope is that sharing our latest thinking will be useful for others more recent developments however suggest that open philanthropy is following through on its plans to scale back in areas of grantmaking where this bar is not met the most salient example is the spinout of the criminal justice reform grantmaking to its own organization just impact while the scale of giving in migration policy is probably too small to justify a spinout to a separate organization the general thinking around scaling back grantmaking may also apply to migration policy and other areas added after the original post open philanthropy reaffirms in a new post that it has been using the roughly 1 000x bar for funding new programs since the 2019 post as of 2019 we switched to tentatively thinking of roughly 1 000x as our bar for new programs because that was roughly our estimate of the unfunded margin of the givewell top charities and we thought we would be able to find enough other opportunities at that cost effectiveness to hit our overall spending targets specific learning by open philanthropy about migration combining information gleaned from various grant write ups the following are some learnings open philanthropy appears to have acquired about the migration space they have become a bit more bullish on refugee migration here s a blurb found on a few recent refugee migration grants such as the 2019 irap grant in the past our immigration policy work has not focused much on refugee resettlement which we had assumed would be more crowded than other aspects of immigration policy with funders aimed at supporting increased opportunities for people to move to the u s for humanitarian reasons while we continue to believe that is directionally correct our increased interest in supporting advocacy around refugee resettlement is partially based on learning more about the fairly limited foundation funding for advocacy around refugee resettlement the largest ongoing commitment seems to be support for irap at a rate of 500 000 year they have struggled to find success in the space of influencing policy around labor mobility or migration more generally they ve exited the space in various ways including exiting niskanen center exiting labor mobility partnerships after helping start it and reducing ongoing commitment to the center for global development s migration program to 200 000 year their efforts to fund programs that directly support worker visas such as grants to the u s association for international migration and protect the people for haiti h 2a visas didn t give the desired magnitude of results though not mentioned in their write ups their efforts to create sustainable flows from haiti got a big blow when haiti was removed from the eligible countries list in january 2018 this was after they published their october 2017 retrospective discussion of the implications both in terms of what we can learn from open philanthropy and what it means for the crowdedness or lack thereof of the space open philanthropy s reasons for not focusing on migration policy are related to tractability as best as i can make out open philanthropy has not significantly changed its thinking on the importance of the issue or its neglectedness with the exception of refugee migration where it has updated toward that area being more neglected rather the biggest updates have been around tractability where there was initially a lot of uncertainty to break that down further this is talking about the tractability of what open philanthropy and its grantees can accomplish and not the tractability of what they could accomplish if they had the ability to directly write migration policies one important multiplier that significantly diminished tractability is the uncertainty of pushing desired changes through political systems this applies particularly to political advocacy think tank work etc another factor affecting tractability is that individual programs to navigate complex systems such as the h 2a use by haiti can suffer from program design challenges and limitations new patterns of migration tend to start slowly and grow over time which also makes the evaluation of programs to push for these more complicated neither of these reasons has much effect on our estimate of the value of changing migration policies themselves it s more about open philanthropy s relative lack of power in affecting those changes this is an update of sorts against migration philanthropy for donors with a similar quantitative focus open philanthropy is well funded and has devoted a fair amount of time and energy to exploring possibilities in migration philanthropy if they have not found strong opportunities for migration philanthropy that suggests that such options are probably either not available or hard to find so while this shouldn t change our view on the moral justness or practical consequences of immigration restrictions it should make us more pessimistic about the ability of philanthropy to meaningfully move this for donors who are moderately cause agnostic it does look like relative to other causes migration policy may not be the right thing to focus on there is space for other donors passionate about migration policy to make donations even if we update against migration policy from a purely near termist cost effectiveness angle there s still plenty of room to donate in the space for donors who are interested both in helping people now and in shaping the long term discourse open philanthropy has transformed spaces like animal welfare and ai safety by pumping huge amounts of money into these spaces in animal welfare they were a major source of funding for cage free campaigns with ai safety they re a major source of funding for several ai safety organizations along with jann tallinn via the survival and flourishing fund in contrast because of the various reasons discussed in the post they have not flooded the migration policy space with money for donors who are not looking at immediate cost effectiveness and are passionate about this cause the many opportunities including ones that open phil has funded and ones it passed up on would be worth looking into a comparison of different migration policy philanthropy options would be a separate post i did one years ago collating comments on an econlog post i do have more updated thoughts on the matter but it would take some time to write them up conclusion although funding migration policy did not take off as ...
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