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e dead are twice as good as one but not so two railways from london to york thus we are so sensible have schooled ourselves to so close a semblance of prudent financiers taking careful thought before we add to the financial burdens of posterity by building them houses to live in that we have no such easy escape from the sufferings of unemployment we have to accept them as an inevitable result of applying to the conduct of the state the maxims which are best calculated to enrich an individual by enabling him to pile up claims to enjoyment which he does not intend to exercise at any definite time posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday december 27 2014 how monopoly finance capital produces stagnation and upheaval the image and the post title are from a book review by david fields at naked keynesianism the book is the endless crisis how monopoly finance capital produces stagnation and upheaval from the usa to china by john bellamy foster robert w mcchesney fields writes as such what has taken place is an historical transformation towards the process of financialization with an inability to absorb effectively economic surpluses concerning the promotion of rising wages along with productivity nfcs or non financial corporations are coerced to paying a larger share of their internal funds specifically via debt leveraging including consumers to financial institutions these financial institutions which are increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people have become some of the most powerful actors borrowers borrow savers save when borrowers repay some perhaps most of the payment stays in finance fewer funds circulate more borrowing is required more than before just to sustain the same level of economic activity as before the natural pattern that arises is that money accumulates in finance until the economy can no longer sustain economic growth and then we have a problem posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 11 comments thursday december 25 2014 getting new hardware is like having a lobotomy i managed to put microsoft office on this new computer as i had it on the piece of shit unusable netbook found a site with instructions http superuser com questions 606149 how do i transfer excel from one computer to another w o installation cd it sent me to get the free produkey utility and it gave me a download site the download wanted the product key and accepted the info i took from produkey we re in posted by the arthurian at 3 12 pm 0 comments tuesday december 23 2014 rgdp less the employment population ratio this is the third graph from yesterday graph 1 real gdp red and the employment population ratio blue i want to subtract the blue line from the red one and see the difference i couldn t figure how to have fred do that because showing percent change is fred s last step i need one more step after that the subtraction so download the values and do it in a spreadsheet why god gave us the internet then change the graph to make both series quarterly and download the data again rename the file and upload it to zoho again and discover the wrap text button delete the first few rows where the employment population ratio has no data delete the last row where there s as yet no data for the last three months of 2014 press ctrl home insert 5 columns and 20 rows the graph will go in the upper left of the sheet and the calculations that support it will go on rows below the graph maybe fewer new rows the dates in the fred download file are always formatted as 1953 01 01 yyyy mm dd i always want them as 1953q1 year and quarter number i always forget the calculation i always have to work it out again there it is but i won t remember next time i ll have to work it out again good thing it s simple anyway here s the graph well i have to look at that one for a while posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday december 22 2014 one two three take the employment population graph from 21 december and show all the years 1 compare it to the picture of inflation adjusted gdp 2 there s not much similarity to write home about however take those two series put em together on the same graph and look at percent change from year ago 3 the employment to population ratio runs generally lower but the two lines are similar now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 21 2014 appears to flatten before onset of recession graph 1 payems divided by pop fred v3m the uptrend goes flat before the 1980 recession the 1982 recession the 1991 recession briefly but twice the 2001 recession and the 2009 recession does that mean it will necessarily happen again the next time no but is it interesting yes is the uptrend flattening now no is that interesting yes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels predicting recession saturday december 20 2014 like a digital signal turning off graph 1 the ratio of required reserves to total reserves the signal was on up near the value 1 0 for half a century or more suddenly it turned off dropping to zero you couldn t get a much better representation of a digital signal the shutdown occurs between august and november of 2008 i was shocked when i first saw that graph as i hope you are but when i caught my breath i realized what it shows is a change in policy it doesn t show that the whole economy changed in an instant it only shows the impact of a single policy decision or so i think if you look at economic data industrial production for example you see a more gradual change graph 2 graph 2 the ratio from graph 1 blue and the industrial production index red 2002 2014 the red line shows a pretty severe change but not instantaneous posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments friday december 19 2014 feynman on reading do not read so much look about you and think of what you see there richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday december 18 2014 feynman on assumptions whenever you see a sweeping statement that a tremendous amount can come from a very small number of assumptions you always find that it is false there are usually a large number of implied assumptions that are far from obvious if you think about them sufficiently carefully richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday december 17 2014 feynman on discovery the chance is high that the truth lies in the fashionable direction but on the off chance that it is in another direction a direction obvious from an unfashionable view of field theory who will find it only someone who has sacrificed himself by teaching himself quantum electrodynamics from a peculiar and unfashionable point of view one that he may have to invent for himself richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday december 16 2014 feynman on uncertainty people search for certainty but there is no certainty people are terrified how can you live and not know it is not odd at all you only think you know as a matter of fact and most of your actions are based on incomplete knowledge and you really don t know what it is all about or what the purpose of the world is or know a great deal of other things richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday december 15 2014 velocity nber 14144 and satisfaction this is one of those posts where i don t so much have something to say as i have something to see for myself i didn t think it through before i wrote it i just had an idea and started investigating making notes along the way these are those notes so if the thing is unreadable don t say i didn t warn you if you can t read it skip to the end to check out the graphs i m happy how they worked out my suspicions were not unfounded this is new to me using nber data to chase down an answer the most interesting of the fred velocity series is the one that goes back into the 1800s from the notes on that series data were computed from wartime current prices divided by money which had been centered to june 30 for each year source simon kuznets nber this nber data series a14187 appears on the nber website in chapter 14 at http www nber org databases macrohistory contents chapter14 html nber indicator a14187 i clicked the chapter 14 link and came to a whole page of nber links on money and banking searched for a14187 found one db dat doc a14187 u s velocity of money stock 1869 1966 the three d links look to me to be database data and documentation i clicked doc and found this c var 0075 14187 velo ty 1r 869 966 md 1e 37 c ref 0075 loc 636 width 9 dk 10 col 71 79 c exp dec 3 c c velocity of money stock c c c nber series 14187 c area covered u s c units ratio c annual coverage 1869 1966 c quarterly coverage none c monthly coverage none c seasonal adjustment none c source simon kuznets nber c c notes data were computed from wartime current prices c divided by money which had been centered to june 30 for each c year c c checked manually no corrections necessary c c oh okay i backed out of that and did another search this time for money stock i found u s velocity of money stock 1869 1966 again and then u s money stock series m14144a this time the doc file captured my attention here s the body of it money stock commerical banks plus currency held by public seasonally adjusted nber series 14144 area covered u s units billions of dollars annual coverage none quarterly coverage none monthly coverage 05 1907 12 1946 seasonal adjustment seasonally adjusted by nber source data are computed by nber from the sum of series 14125 currency held by the public and series 14145 demand deposits adjusted and time deposits all commericial banks see friedman and schwartz monetary statistics of the united states nber 1970 notes series 14144 is presented here as four variables 1 seasonally adjusted data 1867 1906 2 seasonally adjusted data 1907 1946 3 original data 1955 1969 4 seasonally adjusted data 1947 1969 data are for the wednesday nearest the end of the month currency plus demand deposits plus time deposits friedman and schwartz four variables data back to 1867 and forward to 1969 i can use this i backed out of the doc and clicked the dat three columns of data year month and value in a textfile should be importable into a spreadsheet firefox let me save each dat page easily and oh there are only three 14144 pages and nothing going back into the 1800s hm i searched around a bit no luck well that s disappointing okay i ll go with what i found openoffice opened the dat file in writer crap maybe i can copy and paste it to the spreadsheet nope not in a useful way i need import maybe insert sheet from file fixed width detect special numbers ok yes rename the worksheet before importing the others okay got em all that went quick now document the data there is no header info in the nber dat files copy a few lines from the nber page paste to the blogger compose editor db dat doc m14144a u s money stock commerical banks plus currency held by public seasonally adjusted 05 1907 12 1946 db dat doc m14144b u s demand deposits adjusted time deposits all commericial banks plus currency held by the public 01 1955 09 1969 db dat doc m14144c u s demand deposits adjusted time deposits all commercial banks plus currency held by the public seasonally adjusted 01 1947 09 1969 the thing comes out as a fully formatted table sweet sometimes stuff just works i gave it the border and white background to dress it up i don t think i need the m14144b file the other two are both seasonally adjusted and b doesn t say it is anyway file a takes me from 1907 to the end of 1946 and file c picks up at the beginning of 1947 and goes to 1969 hm i started my senior year in college 1969 damn i wish i had the numbers back to 1867 file m14144a how to get annual data from these monthly numbers move the file to excel and use vba no why do i care can i use monthlies no the gdp data will be quarterly or annual just do some calculation that pulls out annual numbers okay that works i figured the average of 12 monthly values to get an annual number then i just added 12 to the starting row number to to figure the next year s annual value i used the same method to calculate my year values if i didn t get nice round year numbers i d know i had something wrong everything came out okay now do the same for file c i did it for file b also hey you never know i might need it okay now i want to copy the three sets of annual data all onto the same worksheet and then go round up some gdp data so i can calculate velocity and compare it to fred s velocity of money stock for united states graph 1 the nber money stock data nber s a file blue and c file red fit together and cover the whole 1908 1968 period there s a gap between the two lines because the blue ends in 1946 and the red starts in 1947 that gap ll disappear when i treat the two datasets as one data series nber s file b dashed green starts in 1955 and follows the same path as the red data i don t need the b data i divided measuringworth s us gdp numbers by nber s money stock numbers to figure velocity in red on graph 2 for comparison i took fred s velocity that goes back to the 1800s in blue graph 2 fred s a14187usa163nnbr blue and nber s m14144 series red in velocity calculations the red one looks like my gold one yesterday the historical statistics m2 velocity the one where i said to my eye the gold and blue are very similar as if the blue line was produced in part by revising the gold line i think i was right about that on the research stlouisfed org page down near the bottom there s a bunch of links for my account and about and services and more among the links for research is monetary aggregates if you follow that link you find these notes we often receive requests for monetary aggregates data that cover time periods prior to january 1959 the beginning date for the board of governors currently published monetary aggregates various data are available for these years but not all data are consistent with the current definitions of the board s monetary aggregates this section discusses available data the problem is not one of finding data the problem is one of constructing monetary aggregates that are consistent with currently published definitions fred probably revised the nber data to make it consistent the nber numbers are older fred s were revised in 2012 so i wanted to see fred s numbers relative to nber s to see how the numbers were changed graph 3 fred s number as a share of nber s number high and dry until the depression then the fred velocity starts falling away we re looking at velocity numbers gdp divided by money stock to make velocity fall taking gdp as a given we d have to increase the money number so graph 3 shows fred s money numbers are higher than nber s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday december 14 2014 velocity 1870 2013 jim s graph here jim says m1 velocity trends downward after its peak in 1981 if you use m1 adjusted for sweeps as the money stock is much more satisfying...
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