Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
april, 2015, the, wednesday, sunday, savings, and, economics, thursday, tuesday, monday, saturday, friday, of, new, arthurian, debt, excessive, john, munro, an, money, how, much, is, looking, for, he, ending, so, on, at, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, keynesian, 10, chief, object, debasement, think, just, finessing, idea, from, archives, finance, ceteris, paribus, economy, rogoff, cycles, optimism, interesting, detail, components, m2, in, historical, federal, workforce, still, something, definite, thinks, grumpy, it, ain, sociology, 101, alternate, josh, hendrickson, asks, good, question, inflexible, trends, cluelessness, focus, expectation, little, evidence, hand, also, year, problem, mendacity, fred, tangent, do, you, measure, success, working, interest, into, mix,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (728), and (256), that (255), for (116), money (95), debt (89), you (81), but (72), #savings (68), was (64), with (60), have (58), not (57), year (57), graph (54), from (52), this (51), are (51), can (46), interest (43), more (43), than (43), inflation (39), there (38), fred (37), like (36), line (36), april (35), all (34), don (34), they (34), value (33), when (33), then (33), red (32), see (31), one (30), arthurian (29), say (29), people (29), because (29), what (29), 2015 (28), years (27), 2009 (27), economy (27), comments (26), total (26), real (26), out (26), into (26), numbers (26), think (26), make (25), posted (25), just (25), blue (25), much (25), now (24), how (24), economic (24), time (24), problem (24), know (24), maybe (24), series (23), gross (23), gdp (22), growth (22), future (22), only (21), may (21), things (21), look (20), other (20), about (20), income (20), saving (20), want (19), would (19), number (19), same (19), data (19), here (18), calculation (18), new (18), might (18), financial (18), assets (18), cost (18), deposits (18), show (17), graphs (16), dollar (16), does (16), has (16), stock (16), thought (16), good (16), rogoff (16), dollars (15), something (15), get (15), were (15), shows (15), too (15), will (15), smith (15), barter (15), well (14), looking (14), our (14), few (14), prices (14), before (14), right (14), still (14), post (14), which (14), federal (13), back (13), use (13), since (13), less (13), accumulated (13), why (13), lower (13), even (13), also (13), different (13), makes (13), their (13), hendrickson (13), rate (13), present (13), finance (13), deflation (13), munro (13), after (12), world (12), measure (12), where (12), price (12), change (12), thing (12), those (12), his (12), find (12), argument (12), had (12), policy (12), singular (12), def (12), flow (11), 2013 (11), most (11), really (11), did (11), sure (11), december (11), view (11), five (10), cents (10), each (10), two (10), course (10), march (10), any (10), small (10), first (10), didn (10), some (10), long (10), such (10), link (10), question (10), says (10), vast (10), class (10), times (10), october (10), gold (10), credit (10), january (10), pay (9), shown (9), zero (9), doesn (9), way (9), away (9), divide (9), higher (9), started (9), today (9), already (9), work (9), should (9), ending (9), start (9), based (9), point (9), focus (9), starts (9), demand (9), crisis (9), plural (9), page (9), supercycle (9), stagnation (9), john (9), february (9), june (9), july (9), august (9), september (9), november (9), between (8), shortfall (8), expect (8), could (8), been (8), little (8), big (8), going (8), come (8), base (8), using (8), easy (8), made (8), sense (8), expectations (8), very (8), words (8), natural (8), spend (8), funds (8), found (8), notes (8), percent (8), component (8), coinage (8), coined (8), him (7), borrow (7), paid (7), need (7), better (7), accumulation (7), adjustment (7), many (7), added (7), dividing (7), lot (7), actual (7), lines (7), got (7), domestic (7), them (7), recent (7), nothing (7), these (7), end (7), current (7), economics (7), trend (7), off (7), conclusion (7), adam (7), paying (7), trillion (7), spending (7), components (7), cycle (7), secular (7), optimism (7), debasement (7), nominal (6), payments (6), created (6), equal (6), type (6), adjusted (6), result (6), true (6), again (6), its (6), household (6), stuff (6), enough (6), down (6), remember (6), attention (6), jim (6), thinking (6), day (6), part (6), reason (6), yesterday (6), increase (6), put (6), while (6), term (6), take (6), excessive (6), 2014 (6), 1967 (6), noticed (6), trends (6), bound (6), rates (6), quantity (6), among (6), market (6), monetary (6), least (6), account (6), learned (6), definition (6), historical (6), read (6), exports (6), trade (6), medieval (6), bank (5), newer (5), consider (5), principal (5), standard (5), variable (5), during (5), wrong (5), over (5), let (5), old (5), changes (5), goes (5), cross (5), left (5), median (5), reasons (5), difference (5), took (5), pretty (5), version (5), writing (5), private (5), head (5), blog (5), another (5), comment (5), expected (5), own (5), anyway (5), wanted (5), erosion (5), 2010 (5), great (5), who (5), never (5), retail (5), went (5), brings (5), negative (5), public (5), form (5), supply (5), economist (5), making (5), enhance (5), process (5), looked (5), saw (5), interesting (5), terms (5), profit (5), cochrane (5), government (5), circulation (5), friedman (5), stf (5), given (5), transactions (5), employment (5), period (5), increased (5), professor (5), age (5), metal (5), louis (4), fed (4), posts (4), suppose (4), repaid (4), gap (4), rather (4), friday (4), success (4), means (4), 2012 (4), calculated (4), includes (4), effects (4), stripped (4), pieces (4), recession (4), bigger (4), looks (4), top (4), gives (4), almost (4), previous (4), able (4), values (4), 1947 (4), sunday (4), sometimes (4), demanding (4), reading (4), being (4), always (4), tell (4), mind (4), measures (4), hey (4), your (4), later (4), trying (4), size (4), figure (4), 1962 (4), ago (4), mean (4), wednesday (4), upon (4), writes (4), existing (4), facts (4), confident (4), situation (4), definite (4), rule (4), quite (4), simply (4), past (4), evidence (4), steve (4), believe (4), output (4), default (4), cannot (4), 1949 (4), above (4), otherwise (4), asks (4), model (4), takes (4), general (4), likely (4), inequality (4), suddenly (4), greater (4), particular (4), preference (4), grew (4), table (4), capital (4), distinctions (4), around (4), factors (4), common (4), bearing (4), somebody (4), banks (4), 2008 (4), useful (4), without (4), produce (4), portion (4), national (4), billions (4), seen (4), broad (4), commonly (4), links (4), exchange (4), balances (4), google (4), modern (4), denomination (4), article (4), civilization (4), chronic (4), deleveraging (4), goods (4), ceteris (4), paribus (4), object (4), archive (4), silver (4), precious (4), scarcities (4), lead (3), borrowed (3), comparing (3), amounts (3), ten (3), worth (3), received (3), lender (3), word (3), reasonable (3), working (3), best (3), star (3), trek (3), dredd (3), saturday (3), mostly (3), removed (3), under (3), must (3), confusing (3), adjust (3), works (3), until (3), smaller (3), faster (3), next (3), product (3), labels (3), used (3), high (3), four (3), push (3), responses (3), write (3), along (3), yeah (3), hit (3), soon (3), mistake (3), calculations (3), laid (3), creditor (3), loss (3), feel (3), breaking (3), borrowing (3), help (3), fix (3), earliest (3), 1960 (3), gonna (3), correctly (3), hope (3), doing (3), starting (3), thursday (3), came (3), finegold (3), though (3), thoughts (3), below (3), opening (3), kates (3), central (3), beyond (3), krugman (3), keynesian (3), cluelessness (3), reaches (3), dates (3), runs (3), add (3), leave (3), area (3), blank (3), white (3), showing (3), both (3), last (3), call (3), bad (3), josh (3), important (3), turned (3), preferences (3), answer (3), provision (3), stored (3), hands (3), consensus (3), arise (3), curve (3), monday (3), wasn (3), weak (3), approach (3), large (3), policymakers (3), create (3), tuesday (3), economists (3), three (3), man (3), labor (3), anything (3), notion (3), rising (3), classes (3), distinguished (3), wages (3), payment (3), milton (3), simple (3), 100 (3), deposit (3), united (3), states (3), consists (3), mmdas (3), thrifts (3), image (3), download (3), forget (3), personnel (3), history (3), depository (3), institutions (3), name (3), cause (3), introductory (3), vox (3), downs (3), pattern (3), reduced (3), global (3), cycles (3), borio (3), fireworks (3), expensive (3), competitive (3), consequences (3), costs (3), profits (3), balance (3), nixon (3), causes (3), sequence (3), volume (3), coin (3), coinages (3), stage (3), theory (3), coins (3), debase (3), oresme (3), merchants (3), prince (3), chief (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), reserve (2), 2016 (2), org (2), older (2), annually (2), recently (2), specifically (2), pass (2), open (2), office (2), mix (2), itself (2), known (2), chronicles (2), riddick (2), karl (2), activity (2), hand (2), outstanding (2), prior (2), addition (2), remove (2), separate (2), piece (2), accurate (2), perhaps (2), often (2), certainly (2), incorrect (2), problems (2), matter (2), company (2), pie (2), war (2), set (2), increases (2), rid (2), divided (2), across (2), disposable (2), personal (2), slope (2), isn (2), buy (2), seem (2), multiply (2), shift (2), flat (2), mendacity (2), tangent (2), dogs (2), corrected (2), forced (2), hard (2), pointed (2), couple (2), brain (2), speed (2), unlike (2), willing (2), accept (2), fitting (2), comes (2), debtors (2), plan (2), clarify (2), myself (2), obvious (2), debtor (2), totals (2), saying (2), concept (2), exactly (2), outcome (2), anonymous (2), mistaken (2), 1961 (2), except (2), expecting (2), run (2), late (2), correct (2), check (2), calcs (2), following (2), seems (2), definitely (2), dataset (2), mine (2), wrote (2), equipment (2), largely (2), irrelevant (2), partly (2), assume (2), issue (2), practice (2), truth (2), convention (2), state (2), continue (2), far (2), specific (2), keynes (2), oriented (2), expectation (2), broken (2), window (2), fallacy (2), probably (2), plot (2), space (2), 1966 (2), guys (2), date (2), reverse (2), order (2), laugh (2), ends (2), death (2), inflexible (2), talk (2), debate (2), questions (2), gets (2), imagine (2), ideas (2), rest (2), quoted (2), bit (2), happens (2), depends (2), majority (2), kind (2), allows (2), everyone (2), bulk (2), valuation (2), arrive (2), others (2), easier (2), explain (2), equilibrium (2), perfect (2), holds (2), warfare (2), yes (2), keep (2), prefer (2), avoid (2), eventually (2), early (2), capitalism (2), drive (2), continued (2), grow (2), contributed (2), experience (2), policies (2), changed (2), grown (2), once (2), becomes (2), apply (2), describe (2), creates (2), alternate (2), chart (2), dammit (2), column (2), considered (2), focused (2), owners (2), resources (2), land (2), begin (2), everything (2), business (2), types (2), person (2), receive (2), regulating (2), sorts (2), belong (2), readily (2), rent (2), ain (2), 101 (2), sociology (2), underlying (2), low (2), forever (2), quoting (2), dreamed (2), spent (2), collecting (2), arrangement (2), failed (2), inside (2), agreements (2), short (2), paper (2), suffering (2), free (2), thinks (2), grumpy (2), noun (2), putting (2), compare (2), gni (2), similar (2), passbook (2), offering (2), roth (2), proxy (2), biggest (2), 2011 (2), wikipedia (2), side (2), green (2), clicking (2), 1000 (2), relation (2), art (2), etc (2), branch (2), military (2), click (2), million (2), stuck (2), population (2), spreadsheet (2), era (2), workforce (2), datasets (2), 1970s (2), counted (2), ordinarily (2), mutual (2), stdsl (2), rmfsl (2), m2sl (2), investment (2), 000 (2), savingsl (2), accounts (2), illiquid (2), included (2), retirement (2), detail (2), reinhart (2), ken (2), analysis (2), fits (2), continues (2), cyclical (2), unexplained (2), due (2), circular (2), near (2), leverage (2), peaks (2), rose (2), decline (2), headwinds (2), subside (2), prove (2), extrapolations (2), performance (2), suggest (2), phase (2), views (2), crises (2), moving (2), main (2), average (2), falling (2), stable (2), scope (2), consumers (2), share (2), imbalance (2), 1971 (2), kennedy (2), ultimately (2), according (2), decade (2), export (2), context (2), strong (2), raising (2), wealth (2), archives (2), ignorance (2), liked (2), economies (2), sequences (2), patterns (2), repeating (2), rely (2), vastly (2), move (2), transition (2), development (2), patently (2), unhistorical (2), sole (2), medium (2), merely (2), transaction (2), finessing (2), idea (2), farther (2), governments (2), currency (2), gain (2), explanation (2), motive (2), foreign (2), bullion (2), mints (2), debasements (2), power (2), final (2), 2018 (2), taxes (2), sumner (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), banking (2), dave (2), ross (2), translate (2), html (2), blogger (2), charts (2), tax (2), pdf (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, http, research, stlouisfed, fred2, horse, water, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, home, lump, sum, ratios, fill, remain, reduces, shortened, example, lent, assumes, inflationary, assumption, cough, count, browser, successfully, deleted, interrupted, updated, playing, éomer, second, third, installments, peter, jackson, lord, rings, trilogy, leonard, bones, mccoy, darkness, cupid, julius, caesar, xena, warrior, princess, kirill, bourne, supremacy, vaako, judge, film, urban, effect, straightforward, represents, consideration, split, totaled, sounds, leads, conclusions, strip, continuously, ones, remains, place, titles, evident, border, mid, 1980s, slick, trick, weren, fooled, 059, 777, title, text, heck, redo, 1991, sucker, moved, flatten, block, play, listen, radio, car, introvert, interferes, wife, excuses, regularly, keeping, alive, thank, gene, callahan, asshole, guess, weeks, criticism, excellent, fact, resolved, getting, acclimated, soak, fit, direct, wow, lumber, yard, burned, erodes, equally, worse, creditors, fills, fascinate, difficult, worked, became, responsible, loosely, hang, contributes, key, funky, yearly, additions, figuring, instead, idiot, deflator, peel, previously, showed, needed, leaving, confusion, thanks, listening, owes, inflate, indicates, removes, coincidentally, solves, discussed, floating, jonathan, spin, considerations, prospective, yields, certain, events, forecasted, confidence, foolish, forming, attach, weight, matters, uncertain, therefore, guided, considerable, degree, somewhat, decisively, relevant, knowledge, vague, scanty, enter, disproportionately, formation, usual, project, modified, extent, tacitly, agreed, fall, essence, lies, assuming, affairs, indefinitely, embodies, titled, excerpt, rich, grateful, insane, idiocy, completely, ridiculous, bizarre, utter, nonsense, stupid, provided, skousen, howler, heights, establishes, display, computer, anymore, plotted, spaces, m1adj, sweeps, feature, happened, routine, code, forgot, funny, knew, described, scratch, dozen, hell, straight, embarrassingly, excel, tfaabshno, points, permeated, defines, sets, skip, pulls, okay, models, chopped, tweak, wording, predominate, invalidate, opinions, round, decisions, restate, accommodate, handful, accomplish, sentence, creeps, quietly, tipping, notice, essentially, unchanged, live, preparing, widely, equitably, distributed, shares, hold, comprehend, latter, develop, precedence, conspiracy, agreement, shared, interests, standing, highly, accumulate, strengthened, sudden, luck, ourselves, financially, naturally, predominant, horizontal, conditions, mathematically, imply, define, markets, information, perfectly, flexible, tight, everyday, deal, rebuttal, deny, engaging, denial, arguments, altogether, developed, gradually, began, days, effectively, forward, seemed, undermining, slowdown, taught, further, ineffectiveness, device, obtaining, overrides, dominant, applies, wants, begins, harm, belief, damage, done, inevitable, item, said, differences, groups, workers, evaluate, schumpeter, shall, aristocracy, commoners, category, busyness, importance, caught, swing, realistic, categories, various, identified, sociologist, revenue, persons, confounded, language, concession, talks, propose, structure, perpetual, coupons, himself, mmm, every, sitting, settled, meanwhile, gave, invented, electronic, overnight, repurchase, commercial, fulfills, 1969, optimal, satiated, liquidity, solution, concise, statement, verb, act, stockpile, adopted, terminology, half, adheres, clear, brief, annual, corresponds, track, backward, twice, recall, ever, progress, close, follows, note, 1000000000, converts, anybody, percentage, winterspeak, pretending, innuendo, bothered, skipped, wander, happy, pondering, subtract, method, estimates, unfortunately, figured, trust, indexmundi, clip, 188, 2008q4, 225, 2012q3, 269, 2014q1, draw, asset, friggin, linked, related, equilibrium007, prize, clicked, summary, section, description, source, program, somewhere, package, review, borrowers, lenders, reaching, worry, surely, turn, acts, depositing, loans, nor, sit, attempt, headed, finds, details, fraction, position, yahoo, rutledge, bruited, technically, defined, embodied, counterintuitively, relative, vernacular, bills, aren, embodiments, checking, stocks, bonds, safe, hate, suggests, equals, endless, wrangling, divisias, googling, management, executive, civilians, uniformed, legislative, judicial, search, bother, employees, grabbed, trending, vietnam, returned, vengeance, largest, force, payroll, comfortable, obviously, wondering, googled, bicentennial, edition, innnovation, mzm, yet, simplify, understand, whether, save, distinction, accessible, adds, switched, letters, record, ballpark, separately, messy, stacked, dark, constructed, weekly, collected, institute, m1sl, plus, include, mmmfs, statistics, significant, individual, ira, keogh, pre, withdrawals, aggregates, heavy, penalties, excludes, ring, bell, principle, science, heads, tails, surprised, downright, topic, catches, eye, paragraph, clarity, contrast, ups, actually, moves, cyclic, return, offers, observes, arose, overall, wide, phrase, knocking, door, adopt, allow, grief, levels, depression, scale, quickly, 2000s, 1920s, deleverage, leaves, room, baseless, comparison, 1929, peak, update, appears, tail, sunk, per, capita, driven, significantly, deficiency, reflect, argue, provides, framework, understanding, transpired, phenomenon, matches, hundred, capture, heart, attack, experienced, slow, demographics, sharp, housing, bubbles, collapses, orthodox, heterodox, suited, greatly, amplified, breakdown, vigorously, pursued, countries, roughly, several, thomas, herndon, falls, kenneth, sidebar, claudio, attached, interested, finishing, response, dove, paragraphs, stronger, affects, offs, confused, unfinished, diffused, puff, smoke, extension, competes, level, persistently, hours, apple, automobile, skyscraper, consumption, raw, material, managerial, oversight, producers, fell, aside, drives, basket, disadvantage, contributing, unfavorable, 1974, attribute, 1960s, johnson, administrations, become, critical, 1950, factor, principles, regulate, parts, commodities, concerns, services, loomed, discussions, muellbauer, shaped, deep, seated, regardless, pathology, stands, sustainable, expansion, however, reflexive, association, weakness, symptom, aggregate, boost, damaging, pushing, unemployment, inducing, delay, beneficial, incomes, empirical, helleiner, fundamental, madness, amongst, students, sexual, frustration, study, wisdom, immediately, stumbled, european, occurred, afraid, emerge, human, nature, throughout, happen, reject, outright, stop, glad, kept, emphasis, toward, confirms, resumption, west, commercialization, producing, believing, mythical, rise, displaced, greco, roman, utilizing, conversely, sophisticated, thus, popular, advanced, 19th, century, german, historians, bruno, hildebrand, deeply, influenced, evolutionary, theories, realize, europe, effecting, pitfall, supposing, recorded, book, register, notations, represent, function, footnote, pointless, frequently, favorite, presents, local, princely, greed, fiscal, encourage, bring, themselves, returning, face, purchasing, content, minted, former, nicholas, 1390, advisor, king, charles, france, dukes, burgundy, opinion, pretends, altering, vain, contemporaries, prime, motivation, mint, revenues, supplies, striking, conscious, deliberate, achieve, goals, virtually, absent, correlated, princes, copyright, arthur, shipman, zoho, withering, shoots, waste, fraud, abuse, verdoorn, urgency, unsustainable, umic, ulc, tot, tongue, cheek, tint, knob, taylor, symmetry, deception, stimulus, deviation, stagflation, spreadsheeting, special, report, slack, simulated, simulacron, serfdom, scott, reviews, reduction, printing, controls, predicting, pfi, parameters, oil, non, linear, tools, motives, multiplier, mmt, math, matched, fekete, malaise, limits, ego, captain, introduction, iceberg, couldn, sleep, humor, hover, craft, hodrick, prescott, hoarding, revisionism, calc, gresham, law, shortage, gds, gang8, fun, mpc, full, disclosure, fpi, digit, financialization, feedback, fcm, composition, failure, embrace, evolution, excuse, eroc, forces, echoes, dpd, disarray, pull, outside, limit, reissue, bulge, recovery, efficiency, coping, civ, calculating, bullard, earthquake, behavioral, finte, artish, adjusting, accidental, discoveries, accelerated, repayment, 400k, smoothing, revision, 1986, 2000, contact, website, tufte, normalized, scaled, mental, workout, numerical, kardi, teknomo, organize, supreme, court, jester, prac, vin, faq, nice, bloogger, within, color, codes, sentral, test, www, schools, menu, host, tips, spoiler, theory2life, irrational, unsettling, oak, redonomics, margin, freshman, dolor, rants, mayday, books, jbpeebles, addicts, anon, frozen, arctic, tundra, blended, purple, candid, troublesome, action, nextblog, skeptical, optimist, worthwhile, canadian, father, tim, duy
Text of the page (random words):
ns and think sure the natural rate of interest can be negative we just have to assume that the rate of time preference is negative while this might mathematically be true it would seem to imply that people value the future more than the present okay models are not my thing i like to look at ideas and see if they make sense so does hendrickson s conclusion make sense or since i chopped off the rest of his conclusion does the part i quoted make sense does it make sense in our zero lower bound state if that s where we are to say that people value the future more than the present yeah it does but i need to tweak his wording just a bit when hendrickson asks are we really to believe that the the zero lower bound is a problem because the general public s preferences change such that they suddenly value the future more than the present he has turned people into the general public it doesn t need to be that way the 99 may still value the present more maybe it s only the 1 that values the future more if 1 of the people have most of the money their preferences predominate and then what happens depends not on what the majority of the people want but on what the people with the majority of the money want that doesn t invalidate hendrickson s conclusion makes it more likely than not i d say it s the trends of the money not the opinions of the many that make the world go round when a few people make the decisions for most of the money it might be easier to get into a situation where interest rates tell us that people value the future more than the present so let s say we restate hendrickson s view to accommodate the the kind of inequality that allows a handful of people to accomplish things that the general public cannot and suppose we take the suddenly out of his sentence for it may not be that we suddenly value the future more than the present it may be something that creeps up on us quietly for a long time before it reaches the tipping point that makes everyone take notice hendrickson s question is essentially unchanged are we really to believe that the the zero lower bound is a problem because the predominant preferences change such that they come to value the future more than the present i can live with it in this form let me answer a question with a question how might we show that we value the future more than the present that s easy saving is provision for the future if you don t spend a dollar today you re preparing to be able to spend it in the future so if people value the future more than the present we would expect to see a vast quantity of savings stored up do we have a vast quantity of savings stored up you know we do is this vast savings widely and equitably distributed or is the bulk of it in few hands so that the great shares they hold are greater even than we comprehend if the latter are the bulk of those funds in so few hands that a consensus could develop among the few a consensus on a new and different economic view such that their valuation of the future takes precedence over our valuation of the present you know it could but there need be no consensus no conspiracy no particular agreement the few have shared interests simply because of their financial standing each of the few on his own may arrive at this new and different economic view that values the future more highly than the present and as their savings accumulate their view is strengthened if we had sudden luck and found ourselves financially among those few in us would naturally arise the same preference for the future as in the others posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday april 12 2015 inflexible trends when you make a graph at fred the first series you use establishes the start and end dates for the default display maybe you start with a series that runs from 1947 to 2014 then you add another series and divide the one by the other but the new one you added only starts in 1967 maybe so the computer cannot figure the first 20 years anymore because it s a number you have divided by a number you don t have so they just leave that out but the default dates don t change that s probably a good thing so you are left with a plot area that starts at 1947 and a plotted line that only starts in 1967 the first 20 years of your graph show blank white space if you look at fred graphs people have made you ll often find those big white spaces in the starting years you can find it on a lot of my fred graphs for sure maybe you never noticed but now that you know about it you ll see it all the time i started with a fred graph showing total financial assets fred s tfaabshno the data runs from 1949 to 2014 then i added the m1adj series m1 adjusted for retail sweeps which runs from 1967 to 2013 so of course the plot area was blank for the years 1949 1966 then i added a trend line to the graph that s a new feature at fred here s what i got graph 1 the blue line showing my calculated data starts at 1967 but the red line fred s trend line is shown on the graph starting at 1949 what happened the guys that added the trend line routine to the fred code forgot to check where the data starts they just went with the default start date and so that s what the graph shows this is funny stuff i knew about the reverse order thing that i described above so i created the graph again from scratch but this time i started with the series that starts in 1967 then added the series that starts in 1949 so by default there is no blank white space the years before 1967 are simply not shown then i added the trend line again and here s what i got graph 2 i had a good laugh at that then i noticed that the red line is exactly the same on both graphs and had another good laugh then i noticed that the trend line is good for maybe the first dozen years and for the last few and otherwise it is way the hell off from where it should be and then i noticed that they don t even do a trend calculation the red line starts at the first value of the blue line and ends at the last value of the blue line and what they call a trend line is really just a straight line from the first blue point to the last blue point that s embarrassingly bad i think but hey don t take my word for it let s see what excel gives us that s more like it cross posted at on the death of fred posted by the arthurian at 8 09 am 0 comments saturday april 11 2015 excessive savings and cluelessness below the opening lines from a post titled excessive savings and keynesian economics by steve kates see if you can find an argument in the excerpt excessive savings and keynesian economics posted on 7 38 pm december 29 2014 by steve kates there was a comment on my previous post krugman s keynesian cluelessness reaches new heights that got me to thinking here is the comment put up by rich for which i am very grateful i was looking up the broken window fallacy in comments at the link that steve kates provided about skousen s gross output the words that were a howler to me was the concept of excessive savings excessive savings insane right who could believe such idiocy that our central economic problem is too much saving completely ridiculous and beyond bizarre utter nonsense how stupid would you have to be to believe such stuff posted by the arthurian at 5 41 pm 4 comments friday april 10 2015 so much focus on expectation so little on evidence at hand came upon this by jonathan finegold keynes point is that expectations are not past oriented thoughts but future oriented thoughts as such past expectations are largely irrelevant in the same post finegold writes the current stock of equipment of course embodies past expectations so the current stock of equipment is largely irrelevant finegold makes my head spin here s keynes the considerations upon which expectations of prospective yields are based are partly existing facts which we can assume to be known more or less for certain and partly future events which can only be forecasted with more or less confidence it would be foolish in forming our expectations to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain it is reasonable therefore to be guided to a considerable degree by the facts about which we feel somewhat confident even though they may be less decisively relevant to the issue than other facts about which our knowledge is vague and scanty for this reason the facts of the existing situation enter in a sense disproportionately into the formation of our long term expectations our usual practice being to take the existing situation and to project it into the future modified only to the extent that we have more or less definite reasons for expecting a change in practice we have tacitly agreed as a rule to fall back on what is in truth a convention the essence of this convention though it does not of course work out quite so simply lies in assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change posted by the arthurian at 6 13 am 0 comments thursday april 9 2015 also following up on yesterday s thought it seems to me that for the inflation adjustment of debt maybe for all real calculations but definitely for real debt calculations you want to have the base year at the start of the dataset not at the end of it the real calculation removes the effects of inflation inflation is prices going up if you remove the increase in prices your numbers get lower to show the lower you have to put the base year at the start of the series so it just makes sense to do it see also mine of 5 april coincidentally or not using the first year as the base year solves the starting year problem that i discussed yesterday come to think of it when i did inflation adjusted debt calcs a while back i wrote about a floating base year posted by the arthurian at 5 41 am 1 comments wednesday april 8 2015 the ending year is a problem i like writing it s like private time i get to block out the world and play with things in my head i don t even listen to the radio in the car that s how much an introvert i am but sometimes the world interferes too many dogs demanding attention too much going on at work demanding attention and the wife demanding attention eh that s all just excuses i like writing regularly and keeping the blog alive and reading the responses to the things i say i like being right and i like being corrected when i m not and i like being forced to think about things so thank you still sometimes it s hard to write i have a problem with gene callahan one of us is an asshole him or me the thought that it might be me makes it hard to write why i don t know it just does i have a bigger problem with my inflation adjustment of debt stuff that s what this post is about it s not always easy to tell i guess there was one problem pointed out in two anonymous comments a couple weeks back that was a good criticism excellent in fact i resolved that one pretty well i think but along the way there was another comment this one from jim i would have expected that 70 years of inflation adjustment would inflate the debt a lot more than the graph indicates yeah i would have expected that too but jim hit me with it too soon i was still getting acclimated to the other adjustment to the calculation things soak into my brain at their own speed there s nothing i can do about that like jim i expected a different result on the graph but unlike a lot of people i am willing to accept what graphs show me and fit my thinking to that but then if there is a mistake in my calculations i really want to direct my attention to the mistake rather than fitting my thinking to it wow you know the lumber yard burned down the other day nothing left i don t know why this comes to mind now anyway i wanted to look at the difference between real and nominal debt measures when inflation erodes debt things get better for debtors and equally worse for creditors i wanted to look at interest paid on debt and see how well it fills the gap between the real and nominal debt measures things like that fascinate me i laid out a plan using some made up numbers to clarify for myself what i wanted to do with the numbers that part was easy it was much more difficult for some reason fitting actual numbers to the plan attention demanding but as i worked it out it became obvious to me that the debtor is only responsible i use the word loosely for the creditor s loss during the time that the debtor owes the creditor if you have a dollar and you hang on to it for ten years and there is inflation during that ten years hey it s your loss if i borrow that dollar and pay you back five years later then if during that five years there is inflation the erosion of value contributes to the gap between real and nominal debt totals i am not saying debtors should make up the difference i am trying to clarify how big the difference is to get a better feel for the growth of debt and when i pay back the creditor and i don t have his dollar any more if there is inflation after that it s on him that s the key concept if i want to see the size of the erosion of debt in 2009 say then i have to do my funky year by year calculation breaking 2009 s total outstanding debt into the yearly additions that accumulated and for each of those years figuring the erosion of debt for that year s addition to debt from that year to 2009 and that should be exactly right but if i want to see the size of the erosion in 2010 instead i have to adjust for inflation from the year of borrowing to the ending year 2010 not 2009 here s the problem i was an idiot i was using 2009 for the ending year to figure all the values because i was using a gdp deflator that has 2009 for its base year so all the years before 2009 on the graphs i did for these post all the years before 2009 show the gap bigger than it really was and all the years after 2009 show it smaller that it really was the outcome or what i expect the outcome to be is that jim was right i expect to see real debt peel away from nominal debt faster and higher than my previously corrected graphs show my graph that was wrong showed the faster and higher thing i thought that was right that s why i needed the anonymous help to fix my mistaken start value calculation but i think when i fix the ending value calculation using inflation from the earliest data to 1960 for the 1960 calculation from earliest data to 1961 for the 1961 calculation from earliest to 1962 for the 1962 calculation and leaving 2009 out of the calculation except in the year 2009 i think the graph will show something more like what jim and i were expecting to see but i still have to work it out i m just gonna post this and run i m already late to work and the dogs are still out but i m pretty sure when i did the inflation adjustment of debt thing a year or two ago i did the ending calculation correctly i mean what i m saying now is the correct calculation i didn t check that but i think that s right so anyway now t...
|
