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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2021;
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ten when we resynthesize we fail spectacularly economics is a good example of this failure to be sure the human economy is a difficult thing to understand so there is no shame when our models fail still there is a philosophical problem that hampers economics economists want to reduce the economy to micro foundations simple principles that describe how individuals behave then economists want to use these principles to resynthesize the economy it is a fool s errand the system is far too complex the interconnections too poorly understood i have picked on econophysics because its models have the advantage of being exceptionally clear whereas mainstream economists obscure their assumptions in obtuse language econophysicists are admirably explicit we assume humans behave like gas particles i admire this boldness because it makes the pitfalls easier to see by throwing away ordered connections between individuals econophysicists make the mathematics tractable the problem is that it is these ordered connections the complex relations between people that define the economy throw them away and what you gain in mathematical traction you lose in relevance that s because you are no longer describing the economy you are describing an inert gas blair fix interesting blog post building an analysis mostly on tractability assumptions is a dangerous thing to do and that goes for both mainstream economics and econophysics why would anyone listen to policy proposals that are based on foundations that deliberately misrepresent actual behaviour defenders of microfoundations and its rational expectations equipped representative agent s intertemporal optimisation frequently argue as if sticking with simple representative agent macroeconomic models doesn t impart a bias to the analysis they also often maintain that there are no methodologically coherent alternatives to microfoundations modelling that allegation is of course difficult to evaluate substantially hinging on how coherence is defined but one thing i do know is that the kind of microfoundationalist macroeconomics that new classical economists and new keynesian economists are pursuing are not methodologically coherent according to the standard coherence definition see e g here and that ought to be rather embarrassing for those ilks of macroeconomists to whom axiomatics and deductive reasoning is the hallmark of science tout court share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky john von neumann on mathematics 27 mar 2021 at 10 22 posted in theory of science methodology 2 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky wissenschaftler irren 27 mar 2021 at 10 16 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on wissenschaftler irren share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky berkson s paradox student stuff 25 mar 2021 at 17 09 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on berkson s paradox student stuff share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how economic orthodoxy protects its dominant position 25 mar 2021 at 15 29 posted in economics 1 comment john bryan davis 2016 has offered a persuasive account of the way an economic orthodoxy protects its dominant position traditional reflexive domains for judging research quality the theory evidence nexus the history and philosophy of economics are pushed aside instead research quality is assessed through journal ranking systems this is highly biased towards the status quo and reinforces stratification top journals feature articles by top academics at top institutions top academics and institutions are those who feature heavily in top journals because departmental funding is so dependent on journal scores career advancement is often made on the basis of these rankings they are not to be taken lightly it is not that competition is lacking but it is confined to those who slavishly accept the paradigm as defined by the gatekeepers the journal editors in this self referential system it is faithful adherence to a preconceived notion of good economics that pushes one ahead robert skidelsky the only economic analysis that mainstream economists accept is the one that takes place within the analytic formalistic modeling strategy that makes up the core of mainstream economics all models and theories that do not live up to the precepts of the mainstream methodological canon are pruned you re free to take your models not using mathematical models at all is considered totally unthinkable and apply them to whatever you want as long as you do it within the mainstream approach and its modeling strategy if you do not follow that particular mathematical deductive analytical formalism you re not even considered doing economics if it isn t modeled it isn t economics that isn t pluralism that s a methodological reductionist straightjacket share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky les 150 ans de la commune de paris 25 mar 2021 at 14 37 posted in economics comments off on les 150 ans de la commune de paris share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky what s wrong with economics 24 mar 2021 at 18 22 posted in economics 2 comments this is an important and fundamentally correct critique of the core methodology of economics individualistic analytical ahistorical asocial and apolitical what economics understands is important what it ignores is alas equally important as skidelsky famous as the biographer of keynes notes to maintain that market competition is a self sufficient ordering principle is wrong markets are embedded in political institutions and moral beliefs economists need to be humbler about what they know and do not know martin wolf ft mainstream economic theory today is still in the story telling business whereby economic theorists create mathematical make believe analogue models of the target system usually conceived as the real economic system this mathematical modelling activity is considered useful and essential to understand and explain relations between different entities in the real economy the predominant strategy is to build mathematical models and make things happen in these analogue economy models rather than engineering things happening in real economies without strong evidence all kinds of absurd claims and nonsense may pretend to be science as paul romer had it in his reckoning with post real economics a couple of years ago math cannot establish the truth value of a fact never has never will we have to demand more of a justification than rather watered down versions of anything goes when it comes to the main postulates on which mainstream economics is founded if one proposes efficient markets or rational expectations one also has to support their underlying assumptions as a rule none is given which makes it rather puzzling how things like efficient markets and rational expectations have become standard modelling assumptions made in much of modern macroeconomics the reason for this sad state of modern economics is that economists often mistake mathematical beauty for truth it would be far better if they instead made sure they keep their hands clean share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky modell och verklighet i ekonomisk teori 24 mar 2021 at 15 41 posted in economics comments off on modell och verklighet i ekonomisk teori if orthodox economics is at fault the error is to be found not in the super structure which has been erected with great care for logical consistency but in a lack of clearness and of generality in the premisses john maynard keynes ekonomistudenter frågar ofta vad de ska med nationalekonomin till vad är poängen med att lära sig en massa matematisk statistiska modeller när de uppenbarligen ändå inte hjälper oss att förstå eller förklara vad som händer i verkliga ekonomier varför ska vi lägga månader på att lära oss bemästra verklighetsfrämmande modeller och teorier som vi sen ändå inte kan använda för att komma med förslag och policies som förhindrar ekonomiska kriser och katastrofer yours truly brukar svara att felet inte så mycket ligger i ekonomers kompetens och kunnande förvisso ser vi ibland inte minst i media flagranta exempel på sådant men det avgörande problemet är inte enskilda ekonomers olika grad av kompetens grundproblemet är hur ekonomer går tillväga när de gör sina analyser och modeller ska vi på djupet verkligen förstå var den moderna nationalekonomin går fel måste vi studera nationalekonomins metodologiska grundvalar nationalekonomi och här avser jag främst den förhärskande neoklassiska mainstream varianten som lärs ut på våra universitet och högskolor är mer än någon annan samhällsvetenskap modellorienterad det finns många skäl till detta ämnets historia ideal hämtade från naturvetenskapen universalitetsanpråk viljan att förklara så mycket som möjligt med så lite som möjligt rigör precision med mera tillvägagångssättet är i grunden analytiskt helheten bryts ned i sina beståndsdelar så att det blir möjligt att förklara reducera aggregatet makro som ett resultat av interaktion mellan delarna mikro mainstreamekonomer baserar i regel sina modeller på ett antal kärnantaganden ca som i grunden beskriver aktörer som rationella samt ett antal auxiliära antaganden aa tillsammans utgör ca och aa vad vi skulle kunna kalla basmodellen m för alla mainstreammodeller baserat på dessa två uppsättningar av antaganden försöker man förklara och predicera både individuella mikro och samhälleliga fenomen makro kärnantagandena består typiskt av ca1 fullständighet den rationella aktören förmår alltid jämföra olika alternativ och bestämma vilket hon föredrar ca2 transitivitet om aktören föredrar a framför b och b framför c måste hon föredra a framför c ca3 icke mättnad mer är alltid bättre än mindre ca4 maximering av förväntad nytta i situationer känneteckade av risk maximerar aktören alltid den förväntade nyttan ca5 konsistenta ekonomiska jämvikter olika aktörers handlande är konsistenta och interaktionen dem emellan resulterar i en jämvikt när man beskriver aktörer som rationella i de här modellerna avser man instrumentell rationalitet som innebär att aktörer förutsätts välja alternativ som har de bästa konsekvenserna utifrån deras givna preferenser hur dessa givna preferenser har uppkommit uppfattas i regel ligga utanför rationalitetsbegreppets omfång och därför inte heller utgör en del av den ekonomiska teorin som sådan bilden man får av kärnantagandena rationella val är en rationell aktör med starka kognitiva kapaciteter som vet vad hon vill noga överväger sina alternativ och givet sina preferenser väljer vad hon tror har de bästa konsekvenserna för henne vägandes de olika alternativen mot varandra gör aktören ett konsistent rationellt val och agerar utifrån detta de auxiliära antagandena aa specificerar rums och tidmässigt vad för typ av interaktion som kan äga rum mellan rationella aktörer antagandena ger ofta svar på frågor som aa1 vilka är aktörerna och var och när interagerar de aa2 vilka är deras mål och aspirationer aa3 vilka intressen har de aa4 vilka är deras förväntningar aa5 vad för slags handlingsutrymme har de aa6 vilket slags överenskommelser kan de ingå aa7 hur mycket och vad för slags information besitter de aa8 hur interagerar deras handlingar med varandra så basmodellen för alla mainstream modeller består av en generell bestämning av vad som axiomatiskt utgör optimerande rationella aktörer ca samt en mer specifik beskrivning aa av i vad för slags situationer som dessa aktörer agerar vilket innebär att aa fungerar som en restriktion som bestämmer den tilltänkta applikationsdomänen för ca och de därur deduktivt härledda teoremen listan över antaganden kan aldrig bli fullständig eftersom det alltid också förekommer ospecificerade bakgrundsantaganden och opåtalade utelämnanden typ transaktionskostnader slutningar o d ofta baserat på något slags negligerbarhets och applikationsöverväganden förhoppningen är att denna tunna uppsättning antaganden ska vara tillräcklig för att förklara och predicera fylliga fenomen i den verkliga komplexa världen i nationalekonomiska läroböcker presenteras genomgående modeller med den grundläggande strukturen a1 a2 an teorem där en uppsättning odifferentierade antaganden används för att härleda ett teorem detta är dock för vagt och oprecist för att vara av något egentligt värde och ger inte heller någon vidare sanningsenlig bild av den gängse modellstrategin i mainstream nationalekonomi där differentieras det genomgående mellan uppsättningen av laglika hypoteser och auxiliära antaganden vilket ger den mer adekvata strukturen ca1 ca2 can aa1 aa2 aan teorem eller ca1 ca2 can aa1 aa2 aan teorem som klarare understryker aa s funktion som en uppsättning restriktioner på applicerbarheten av de deducerade teoremen i extremfallet får vi ca1 ca2 can teorem där teoremen är analytiska entiteter med universell och fullständigt obegränsad applicerbarhet eller så får vi aa1 aa2 aan teorem där teoremen förvandlats till icke testbara tautologiska tankeexperiment utan några andra empiriska ambitioner än att berätta en koherent fiktiv som om historia om man inte klart skiljer på ca och aa går det inte att göra denna helt avgörande tolkningsmässiga distinktion vilket öppnar upp för allehanda försök att rädda eller immunicera modeller från i princip all kritik genom att otillbörligt glida mellan att tolka modellerna som empiriskt tomma deduktiv axiomatiska analytiska system respektive som modeller med explicita empiriska aspirationer i vanliga fall uppfattas kanske flexibilitet som något positivt men i en metodologisk kontext är det snarast ett tecken på problem modeller som är förenliga med allting eller kommer med ospecificerade applikationsdomäner är värdelösa ur vetenskaplig synpunkt sett nationalekonomin till skillnad från logik och matematik borde vara en empirisk vetenskap och empiriska test av axiom borde vara självklart relevant för en sådan disciplin för även om mainstreamekonomen själv implicit eller explicit hävdar att hennes axiom är universellt accepterade som sanna och utan behov av bevis så utgör detta självklart inte i sig ett skäl för andra att bara rakt av acceptera dem när mainstreamekonomers deduktivistiska tänk kommer till användning resulterar detta som regel i konstruerande av som om modeller baserade på någon form av idealiseringslogik och en uppsättning axiomatiska antaganden från vilka konsistenta och precisa inferenser kan göras det vackra i detta är så klart att om de axiomatiska premisserna är sanna så ...
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