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t of mutual assured destruction according to which a full scale nuclear attack on a power with second strike capability would devastate both parties the internationalization of deterrence including via nuclear sharing and nuclear umbrellas 14 became a key strategy for states seeking to project power while mitigating direct conflict examples include the cuban missile crisis and nato double track decision 14 general deterrence is considered successful when an actor who might otherwise take an action refrains from doing so due to the consequences that the deterrer is perceived likely to take 15 16 immediate deterrence is considered successful when an actor seriously contemplating immediate military force or action refrains from doing so 15 scholars distinguish between extended deterrence the protection of allies and direct deterrence protection of oneself 13 17 rational deterrence theory holds that an attacker will be deterred if they believe that 18 probability of deterrer carrying out deterrent threat costs if threat carried out probability of the attacker accomplishing the action benefits of the action this model is frequently simplified in game theoretic terms as costs p costs benefits p benefits history edit source world war ii edit source during world war ii some historians have argued that deterrence prevented the western allies and axis from extensive and direct chemical warfare with each other as had been used in world war i nonetheless nazi germany used chemical weapons during the siege of sevastopol siege of odessa and battle of the kerch peninsula while imperial japan frequently used chemical weapons against chinese troops citation needed conversely during the nuremberg trials hermann göring stated that initiating an exchange of chemical weapons during the operation overlord would have immobilized the wehrmacht which widely relied on horse drawn transport and a suitable gas mask for horses had not been designed 19 cold war edit source concept edit source while the concept of deterrence precedes the cold war it was during the cold war that the concept evolved into a clearly articulated objective in strategic planning and diplomacy with considerable analysis by scholars 20 most of the innovative work on deterrence theory occurred from the late 1940s to mid 1960s 21 historically scholarship on deterrence has tended to focus on nuclear deterrence 22 since the end of the cold war there has been an extension of deterrence scholarship to areas that are not specifically about nuclear weapons 5 nato was founded in 1949 with deterring aggression as one of its goals 23 a distinction is sometimes made between nuclear deterrence and conventional deterrence 24 25 26 27 the two most prominent deterrent strategies are denial denying the attacker the benefits of attack and punishment inflicting costs on the attacker 12 the lesson of munich where appeasement failed has contributed to deterrence theory in the words of scholars fredrik logevall and kenneth osgood munich and appeasement have become among the dirtiest words in american politics synonymous with naivete and weakness and signifying a craven willingness to barter away the nation s vital interests for empty promises they claimed that the success of u s foreign policy often depends upon a president withstanding the inevitable charges of appeasement that accompany any decision to negotiate with hostile powers 28 examples edit source in november 1945 general curtis lemay who led american air raids on japan during world war ii said in a speech to the ohio society of new york that since no air attack once it is launched can be completely stopped his country needed an air force that could immediately retaliate if we are prepared it may never come it is not immediately conceivable that any nation will dare to attack us if we are prepared 29 in pursuit of nuclear deterrence the superpowers of the ussr and u s engaged in a nuclear arms race warheads themselves evolved from fission weapons to thermonuclear weapons and were extensively miniaturized for both strategic and tactical use 30 nuclear weapons delivery was equally important such as the perceived bomber gap and missile gap deterrence was a primary factor in the ultimate proliferation of nuclear weapons to ten nations in total generally this was the form of the threat perceived from a nearby recently nuclear armed neighbor in the case of the nuclear programs of israel and south africa deterrence was against the threat of conventional attack citation needed additionally chemical weapons were a component of deterrence for both sides of the cold war and large stockpiles were maintained until their destruction began following the 1993 chemical weapons convention offensive biological weapons programs were pursued by both countries in the first two decades of the cold war but the united states program was ended by president richard nixon in 1969 citation needed concept edit source the concept of deterrence can be defined as the use of threats in limited force by one party to convince another party to refrain from initiating some course of action 31 4 in arms and influence 1966 schelling offers a broader definition of deterrence as he defines it as to prevent from action by fear of consequences 7 glenn snyder also offers a broad definition of deterrence as he argues that deterrence involves both the threat of sanction and the promise of reward 32 a threat serves as a deterrent to the extent that it convinces its target not to carry out the intended action because of the costs and losses that target would incur in international security a policy of deterrence generally refers to threats of military retaliation directed by the leaders of one state to the leaders of another in an attempt to prevent the other state from resorting to the use of military force in pursuit of its foreign policy goals as outlined by huth 31 a policy of deterrence can fit into two broad categories preventing an armed attack against a state s own territory known as direct deterrence or preventing an armed attack against another state known as extended deterrence situations of direct deterrence often occur if there is a territorial dispute between neighboring states in which major powers like the united states do not directly intervene on the other hand situations of extended deterrence often occur when a great power becomes involved the latter case has generated most interest in academic literature building on the two broad categories huth goes on to outline that deterrence policies may be implemented in response to a pressing short term threat known as immediate deterrence or as strategy to prevent a military conflict or short term threat from arising known as general deterrence a successful deterrence policy must be considered in military terms but also political terms international relations foreign policy and diplomacy in military terms deterrence success refers to preventing state leaders from issuing military threats and actions that escalate peacetime diplomatic and military co operation into a crisis or militarized confrontation that threatens armed conflict and possibly war 33 the prevention of crises of wars however is not the only aim of deterrence in addition defending states must be able to resist the political and the military demands of a potential attacking nation if armed conflict is avoided at the price of diplomatic concessions to the maximum demands of the potential attacking nation under the threat of war it cannot be claimed that deterrence has succeeded furthermore as jentleson et al 34 argue two key sets of factors for successful deterrence are important a defending state strategy that balances credible coercion and deft diplomacy consistent with the three criteria of proportionality reciprocity and coercive credibility and minimizes international and domestic constraints and the extent of an attacking state s vulnerability as shaped by its domestic political and economic conditions in broad terms a state wishing to implement a strategy of deterrence is most likely to succeed if the costs of noncompliance that it can impose on and the benefits of compliance it can offer to another state are greater than the benefits of noncompliance and the costs of compliance deterrence theory holds that nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons through the promise of retaliation and possibly mutually assured destruction nuclear deterrence can also be applied to an attack by conventional forces for example the doctrine of massive retaliation threatened to launch us nuclear weapons in response to soviet attacks a successful nuclear deterrent requires a country to preserve its ability to retaliate by responding before its own weapons are destroyed or ensuring a second strike capability a nuclear deterrent is sometimes composed of a nuclear triad as in the case of the nuclear weapons owned by the united states russia china and india other countries such as the united kingdom and france have only sea based and air based nuclear weapons proportionality edit source jentleson et al provides further detail in relation to those factors 34 proportionality refers to the relationship between the defending state s scope and nature of the objectives being pursued and the instruments available for use to pursue them the more the defending state demands of another state the higher that state s costs of compliance and the greater need for the defending state s strategy to increase the costs of noncompliance and the benefits of compliance that is a challenge as deterrence is by definition a strategy of limited means george 1991 goes on to explain that deterrence sometimes goes beyond threats to the actual use of military force but if force is actually used it must be limited and fall short of full scale use to succeed 35 the main source of disproportionality is an objective that goes beyond policy change to regime change which has been seen in libya iraq and north korea there defending states have sought to change the leadership of a state and to policy changes relating primarily to their nuclear weapons programs citation needed reciprocity edit source secondly jentleson et al 34 outlines that reciprocity involves an explicit understanding of linkage between the defending state s carrots and the attacking state s concessions the balance lies in not offering too little too late or for too much in return and not offering too much too soon or for too little return coercive credibility edit source this section needs more citations please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources unsourced material may be challenged and removed may 2026 learn how and when to remove this message finally coercive credibility requires that in addition to calculations about costs and benefits of co operation the defending state convincingly conveys to the attacking state that failure to co operate has consequences threats uses of force and other coercive instruments such as economic sanctions must be sufficiently credible to raise the attacking state s perceived costs of noncompliance a defending state having a superior military capability or economic strength in itself is not enough to ensure credibility indeed all three elements of a balanced deterrence strategy are more likely to be achieved if other major international actors like the un or nato are supportive and opposition within the defending state s domestic politics is limited the other important considerations outlined by jentleson et al 34 that must be taken into consideration is the domestic political and economic conditions in the attacking state affecting its vulnerability to deterrence policies and the attacking state s ability to compensate unfavourable power balances the first factor is whether internal political support and regime security are better served by defiance or there are domestic political gains to be made from improving relations with the defending state the second factor is an economic calculation of the costs that military force sanctions and other coercive instruments can impose and the benefits that trade and other economic incentives may carry that is partly a function of the strength and flexibility of the attacking state s domestic economy and its capacity to absorb or counter the costs being imposed the third factor is the role of elites and other key domestic political figures within the attacking state to the extent that such actors interests are threatened with the defending state s demands they act to prevent or block the defending state s demands rational deterrence theory edit source one approach to theorizing about deterrence has entailed the use of rational choice and game theoretic models of decision making see game theory rational deterrence theory entails 36 rationality actors are rational 13 unitary actor assumption actors are understood as unitary 13 dyads interactions tend to be between dyads or triads of states strategic interactions actors consider the choices of other actors 13 cost benefit calculations outcomes reflect actors cost benefit calculations 13 37 deterrence theorists have consistently argued that deterrence success is more likely if a defending state s deterrent threat is credible to an attacking state huth 31 outlines that a threat is considered credible if the defending state possesses both the military capabilities to inflict substantial costs on an attacking state in an armed conflict and the attacking state believes that the defending state is resolved to use its available military forces huth 31 goes on to explain the four key factors for consideration under rational deterrence theory the military balance signaling and bargaining power reputations for resolve interests at stake the american economist thomas schelling brought his background in game theory to the subject of studying international deterrence schelling s 1966 classic work on deterrence presents the concept that military strategy can no longer be defined as the science of military victory instead it is argued that military strategy was now equally if not more the art of coercion intimidation and deterrence 38 schelling says the capacity to harm another state is now used as a motivating factor for other states to avoid it and influence another state s behavior to be coercive or deter another state violence must be anticipated and avoidable by accommodation it can therefore be summarized that the use of the power to hurt as bargaining power is the foundation of deterrence theory and is most successful when it is held in reserve 38 in an article celebrating schelling s nobel memorial prize for economics 39 michael kinsley washington post op ed columnist and one of schelling s former students anecdotally summarizes schelling s reorientation of game theory thus y ou re standing at the edge of a 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