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ph 1 productivity percent change from year ago that s pretty interesting until you notice how reliable it is i mean what does it tell us it tells us if you want productivity to go up have a recession great so when we come out of the recession productivity goes high for a moment and then drops way low again so what happens if we finally solve the economic problem and never have another recession low productivity forever counting recession effect highs produces impressive but questionable productivity numbers this graph from bls says 2000 2007 had the best productivity growth since 1973 graph 2 productivity as bls sees it but the 2001 2007 business cycle was by far the weakest of the postwar period i think the bls high number for 2000 2007 is a result of counting the recession effect highs sometimes i wonder what productivity would look like if we could cut off those recession effect highs and get a better feel for productivity in the good years but how would you decide which spikes to cut off i mean sometimes there is only one spike and sometimes there are two in quick succession should we count the two as one spike and cut them both off what if it s more than two spikes should we cut them all off obviously we need a better plan if you want to measure productivity in the good years you have to know what you mean by good years here s a thought let s look at productivity in the context of debt service this next graph shows productivity as percent change not like graph 1 together with household debt service as you know i find a relation between the two low debt service implies low productivity rising debt service implies rising productivity graph 3 productivity in the context of debt service i marked up the graph to show three bottoms of the debt service bowl along with productivity at the bottom graph 4 productivity at the bottom of the debt service bowl consider one of the three consider the economy since the crisis these were not good years during the recession not good during the remarkable drop in debt service not good how about all the while debt service has been at bottom not good nobody else puts it in terms of debt service but this is what everyone has been saying my definition of not good years is the time of recession plus the years after it when debt service is falling or running low the good years then begin when debt service is rising from the bottom and the good years continue to the start of recession having what looks like a workable definition i downloaded the fred data for graph 3 and set to work brought the data in to excel went back to fred for a recession indicator added columns for bowl drop for times when debt service is falling and bowl bottom for times it is running low i ll just put a 1 in those columns on the rows where debt service is falling or running low i made a new column to total up the recession drop and bottom columns i figure i ll graph the totals column that way i can just put 1 in the cells for bad years and watch the graph change while i m working instead of showing recession bars on my graph i want to show bad years bars that s what the totals column is for my bars will be wider than fred s recession bars because i m including the drop and bottom years to make this all work i had to dig up the old recession_bars pdf from the st louis fed but i needed to use the right axis to make the bar display work so i had to move debt service off the right axis and onto the left with productivity the axis values are different for debt service and productivity conveniently though if i add 11 to the productivity values i get the same vertical scale values that debt service uses couldn t get much simpler than that the recession bars thing worked great but i need a version of the pdf written for excel 2010 this one from econ duke edu helped this is the graph i came up with graph 5 productivity and debt service with good years on white background basically the recession bars are wider than before each one continues to the right until the red line starts to go up at the 1990 recession the recession bar also inches leftward for six months two quarters as the bowl drop that time started before the nber recession start date i didn t fiddle with the white area between the 1980 and 1982 recessions obviously there is a recession effect productivity peak between those two recessions but the debt service data only starts in 1980 and i don t want to guess about any bowl drop action besides if i gray out the productivity peak after the 1980 recession there s almost no white left before the 1982 recession so i just left that one alone my next objective is to get average productivity growth rate values for the areas on white background i have in mind to compare these values to the numbers on the bls graph above so that all worked out okay i got my recession drop bottom data all on gray background and i figured average productivity rates for the good years on white background i was ready to compare my numbers to the bls numbers and i suddenly realized mine are quarterly growth rates and theirs are annual their numbers are like four times the size of mine and then i realized i didn t know how to figure what fred calls an annual rate for quarterly data i don t think you just multiply by four maybe you do i don t know so i scrounged around the web and finally found annualizing data at the dallas fed so now i have my productivity numbers as annualized rates turns out that 1994 2001 is the period of highest good years productivity not the 2000 2007 period that bls shows as expected but look how high the productivity number goes for the bad years from 2001 to 2004 graph 6 productivity growth in good years white background and bad years gray background that is a result of the recession effect average the productivity spike numbers into the years before the crisis and you make the pre crisis years look like a strong growth period when it was not recession effects are not the same as a healthy economy not by a long shot the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday september 17 2016 ergo vigor debt service is interest payments plus repayment of principal so you would expect to see some similarity between household debt service and household debt that similarity might be reduced by changes in interest rates and changes in the repayment period but the similarity is easy to find graph 1 showing similarity between debt and debt service the two data sets share an underlying pattern i marked up the graph to emphasize it my markups of the graph are nearly continuous except in two places at the start because debt service numbers before 1980 are unavailable and in the years before the crisis the gap before the crisis is much bigger for the blue than for the red this suggests that a lag developed or lengthened at that point the gap in the red contains a downward trend in the data the gap in the blue contains a comparable downward trend followed by a pretty severe uptrend in debt service crisis related no doubt i couldn t resist predicting similarity at the end where the red line rises and i expect the blue to follow i went over the graph and wrote down turning point dates for the red series and corresponding dates for the blue series for each pair i subtracted the one date from the other and came up with a length of lag number i took the lag lengths and put them on a graph graph 2 length of lags in the debt service pattern the last two are red because we have not got to the end of those lag periods yet my estimate of lag length is on the high side between four and five years one year less is plausible two years less is not i plan to take this lag information and apply it to my projection of vigor in gdp off the top of my head i ll say household debt begins rising just where it crosses the debt service line in 2012 q1 on graph 1 if the lag is four or five years we should see debt service start rising some time between early 2016 and early 2017 that increase will be the right side of the bowl shape in debt service and remember when we are going up the right side of that bowl that is when we expect labor productivity to increase ergo vigor the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday september 16 2016 what keynes said what binyamin appelbaum said growth remains slow despite the federal reserve s campaign to stimulate the economy predictions of faster growth followed a few months later by disappointment have become an annual ritual what keynes said we assume the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change what i said from yesterday s post high gdp growth soon using my lowest projection i m trying to come up with specific reasons so people can stop assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday september 15 2016 putting numbers on vigor 7 developing gdp from wednesday we have this graph 1 gdp to household debt since 2005 and five projections we re looking at the ratio of gdp to household debt a ratio that goes down except in abnormal circumstances i should toss out not only the polynomial projection that goes crazy high but also the two projections that run flat i won t toss anything yet the graph shows gdp divided by debt if i take those numbers and multiply them by the debt household debt i get gdp five projections of gdp out to 2025 these are predictions of a general trend they do not predict recessions which are disturbances to the general trend i ll take household debt and projections from tuesday s spreadsheet for now i ll just use the baseline estimate the red line between the green and gold multiply wednesday s data by tuesday s and we get estimates of gdp graph 2 gdp and projections to 2025 yeah i m getting rid of the poly projection the tall one graph 3 gdp and projections red poly omitted i should keep only the lower of the two remaining projections shown actually four remain but there is some overlap so only two are visible i should keep the lowest one in this series of posts my argument is that gdp is going to go high my evidence is what s happening to debt service which we talked about some days back i should keep the lowest one so that when debt goes high it isn t because i picked a high projection we ll get to that in the legend the projections are all called red red is a reference to the color of the baseline estimate on tuesday s graph 1 the middle projection based on the 2010 2016 numbers for household debt right now i want to look at percent change from year ago numbers for gdp graph 4 gdp and projections percent change from year ago yeah i ll just keep the one projection the lowest one linear called red lin actually the green line once again the projections are smooth while the blue line is jiggy i m thinking to make them comparable i should show the hodrick prescott for the whole thing so keep the low projection add a hodrick prescott and make the historical data faint graph 5 gdp with the lowest projection and the h p trend now we re getting there the jiggies run higher than the trend which made the low projection unimpressive on graph 4 but as 5 shows the uptrend will be quite impressive to refresh your memory this estimate of future gdp is based on present trends in household debt service household debt and the ratio of gdp to household debt the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday september 14 2016 putting numbers on vigor 6 projecting gdp we now have a projection for household debt ten years into the future nine years whatever my idea is to look at the household debt to gdp ratio and see if i can predict that graph ten years out also and then divide the debt out of it and end up with a prediction for gdp my first thought was to make a prediction based on a particular part of the debt to gdp ratio omit the early years when debt was particularly low omit the great inflation years when gdp was particularly high and omit the housing bubble years when debt was particularly high i m left with the the years from 1986 to 2000 where the ratio runs straight and somewhat uphill graph 1 household debt as a percent of gdp it s easy to imagine the future if it follows a straight line and it seems right because the line runs uphill then i looked at the gdp to household debt ratio and it seemed a better choice the general trend of the line is down rather than up so the changes in recent years are smaller rather than bigger i felt i could make a better prediction because the recent changes are smaller it s the same numbers just b divided by a instead of a divided by b i know that but i went with it anyway the first rightmost four worksheets in today s excel file develop this idea what i imagine looks something like this graph 2 gdp as a multiple of household debt it s easier to see on this graph than the previous one in the years before 1960 the blue line was high but coming down because debt was so low but growing quickly from the mid 1960s to the mid 1980s the blue line was high because inflation pushed the gdp numbers up and after 2000 the blue line went low because there was so much housing bubble debt i was not comfortable with the idea of using 15 to 30 year old data to predict future data values but i went through the motions in a spreadsheet it turned out that both the exponential and linear trend lines based on the 1986 2000 period ran quite near the most recent data i could explain that to myself no great inflation etc but i had no great confidence in the explanation so i decided to set this work aside and take another crack using a different approach i decided to see how the trends look if i use only the most recent data i looked at the numbers the last three show decrease before that the numbers were pretty reliably increasing since 2009 if i wanted to avoid using numbers from the housing boom correction i was left with only the last three values so i went with that i was even more unhappy about using only three values than i was about using only the 1986 2000 data so i was extra cautious i figured i d apply all of excel s different trend line types to those three data points and see what turned up the next five graphs show the three most recent values in red at the right end of the blue line and the older data in blue the trend line based on the three red values is shown as a black line the five graphs are the same except for the black line and its identifier in the legend unbelievably four of the five trend lines turned out good that is four of them are surprisingly similar to the red line on graph 2 which was my previous best guess i show all five graph 3a exponential trend graph 3b linear trend graph 3c log trend graph 3d power trend graph 3e polynomial trend the polynomial trend shows its penchant for making bowl shapes it is far from the blue line for most years on the graph a...
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