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he credit you get the bill now it s not credit use anymore now it is debt and now it s like paying for something without getting anything that s why debt is always bad don t argue with me dammit i m trying to make an idea simple in the pdf they say moderate levels of debt improve growth but that s wrong it s the credit use that improves growth because credit use is demand it s debt that harms growth because the payment is disconnected from demand and with debt there is payment but no demand moderate levels of debt improve growth not really moderate levels of debt harm the economy less than high levels of debt moderate debt is easier to bear because moderate credit use can balance against it when you have high levels of debt it takes high levels of credit use to offset the drag from the debt to understand debt keep three principles in mind debt always hurts the economy credit use always helps the economy and credit use always creates debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels non linear the difference between debt and credit tuesday february 17 2015 credit use is good for growth but accumulated debt is not so the effect is non linear vox financial development and output growth in developing asia and latin america a comparative sectoral analysis by joshua aizenman yothin jinjarak donghyun park the global crisis put to the fore the possibility that the relationship between financial depth and output growth may be non linear the development of the financial sector may benefit the real sector but only up to a point 1 beyond that point further financial development may have no effect or even a negative effect on growth the evidence suggests that the level of service flow of financial sector is good only up to a point after which it becomes a drag on sectoral growth in the sample countries overall our evidence is consistent with the hypotheses we set forth at the outset in particular the non linear effect of financial development on growth and its uneven effect across sectors in addition we find that financial depth has a negative effect on manufacturing in east asia and a positive effect on finance insurance and real estate sector in latin america financial efficiency as measured by lending deposit interest spread is positively associated with the growth of finance insurance and real estate sector we also find some evidence of a financial dutch disease the faster the growth of financial services and the larger the lending deposit interest spread the slower the growth of the manufacturing sector footnotes 1 boyd and smith 1992 show that the quality of financial intermediation has first order effects on capital flows and economic growth providing a nice interpretation to the lucas paradox 1992 of capital flowing uphill a topic that gained even more attention in the context of the global imbalances in the 2000s see laura et al 2003 ju and wei 2011 and the references therein cecchetti and kharroubi 2012 study how financial development affects growth at both the country and industry level they find the level of financial development is good only up to a point after which it becomes a drag on growth these results are in line with rousseau and wachtel 2011 s vanishing effect i e credit has no statistically significant impact on gdp growth over the 1965 2004 period looking at the more recent data philippon and reshef 2013 concluded that at the very high end of financial development rapidly diminishing social returns may have set in aizenman et al 2013 found that periods of accelerated growth of the financial sector are more likely to be followed by abrupt financial contractions than are periods of slower financial sector growth though these studies do not identify the mechanisms associated with the vanishing effect of finance they are consistent with minsky 1974 s hypothesis over time that financial deepening may eventually divert financial resources from financing real activities into speculative and ultimately destabilising risky and bubbly yield seeking financial investments nonlinear sure the part i like best rousseau and wachtel in the footnote credit has no statistically significant impact on gdp growth over the 1965 2004 period yeah accumulated debt has been excessive since 1965 yeah from the list of references rousseau p and p wachtel 2011 what is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth economic inquiry 49 276 288 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels non linear monday february 16 2015 the mortgage forgiveness debt relief act and debt cancellation irs the mortgage forgiveness debt relief act and debt cancellation if you owe a debt to someone else and they cancel or forgive that debt the canceled amount may be taxable if you borrow money and the lender later cancels or forgives the debt you may have to include the cancelled amount in income for tax purposes depending on the circumstances when you borrowed the money you were not required to include the loan proceeds in income because you had an obligation to repay the lender when that obligation is subsequently forgiven the amount you received as loan proceeds is normally reportable as income because you no longer have an obligation to repay the lender i have to say the last couple sentences there make perfect sense a loan doesn t count as income because i have to repay it so then if it turns out i don t have to repay it i guess it does have to count as income here s what doesn t make sense it doesn t make sense when everything that happens in the economy drives people to use more and more debt until suddenly debt breaks the camel s back and the economy practically shuts down it doesn t make sense to push accumulated debt to such a high level that the economy can no longer even grow and then turn around and say you have to pay income tax on any debt that s forgiven that makes no sense posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday february 15 2015 victor ehrenberg from solon to socrates from my old notes excerpts out of from solon to socrates greek history and civilization during the sixth and fifth centuries b c by victor ehrenberg london methuen co ltd 1968 from the introductory material the period between solon and socrates includes the sixth and fifth centuries b c that is to say the culmination and the end of the archaic age and the finest flowering of the classical age i do not include the fourth century in spite of plato and praxiteles because of the decline and change in politics during that period solon was a poet and a statesman he is the first greek politician who still speaks to us with socrates one epoch ends and another begins his execution was the first unforgivable crime of the restored democracy which traced its origins back to solon the two men solon and socrates neither of them an extremist tried to create new bonds between the extremes in society notes on solon from hesiod onward oppression and injustice were causes of growing complaint the community needed a stronger supreme authority a unified domestic and foreign policy and above all social peace and economic prosperity in various cities the opportunity was seized by individual leaders strong personalities who gained power by usurpation the greeks called them tyrants athenian pottery had flourished in the ninth and eighth centuries after that there is no evidence that athens was of importance till the time of solon the nobility were the large landowners mainly corn growers and to some extent cattle breeders later cultivators of olives and vines these wealthy families were a clear minority of the people but they held most of the fertile land in the attic plains while the small farmers generally lived on the poorer land in the hills the nobility firmly entrenched in the security of their political power and their bonds of kinship cult and neighbourhood and so far not yet seriously affected by the slow rise of the peasantry were to face an economic and social crisis which not only undermined their own power but also severely shook the whole community the enmities among the noble families and the blood bath that ended the cylonian affair were symptoms rather than causes of general conditions otherwise hardly known to us after that aristotle writes there was for a long time civic struggle between the nobles and the people in general the lower classes were in a sorry plight what their situation exactly was depends on some facts which cannot be regarded as clearly established one thing we do know is that down to solon money economy hardly began to exert any influence at athens it was a question of land and its produce solon seems to have given a law to prevent the unlimited accumulation of land the fact that the plight of the peasantry was so widespread and also that athens did not send out colonies makes it likely that there was no bar to dividing the ordinary lot except that it may frequently have been too small for further division thus the number of very small farms would increase and make it more likely that so many peasants fell into debt aristotle maintains that loans were on the security of the persons of the debtor and his family sale into slavery was the ultimate consequence of that rule when a peasant tried to get help from a wealthy neighbour it was quite common as solon expressly states for the rich to make the most unfair use of their opportunities solon reproached them for avarice and arrogance thus condemning on moral grounds what he knows was at the same time a grave social danger solon was elected archon for the year 594 593 and was given full power the foremost thing he did was to free the debtors and their land he did this by cancelling all debts and this was called seisachtheia the shaking off of burdens it certainly was a radical measure but the loss for the creditors did not touch the substance of their wealth at the same time he forbade for the future all loans on the security of the person so that never again could a man or his wife and family be enslaved for debt it is possible that he cancelled thereby a law of dracon s solon was a man of the middle road that will have been a trend of his nature but it was also the result of a reasoned approach to politics rather than an a priori principle solon learnt the wisdom that in great things it is hard to please everybody he proudly claimed to the demos i have given such honour as is sufficient neither taking away nor granting them more for those who had power and were great in riches i equally cared that they should suffer nothing wrong thus i stood holding my strong shield over both and i did not allow either side to prevail over justice posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday february 14 2015 greece now and then article 50 of the consolidated treaty on european union 1 any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements 2 a member state which decides to withdraw shall notify the european council of its intention in the light of the guidelines provided by the european council the union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that state setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the union that agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with article 218 3 of the treaty on the functioning of the european union it shall be concluded on behalf of the union by the council acting by a qualified majority after obtaining the consent of the european parliament 3 the treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or failing that two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2 unless the european council in agreement with the member state concerned unanimously decides to extend this period 4 for the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3 the member of the european council or of the council representing the withdrawing member state shall not participate in the discussions of the european council or council or in decisions concerning it a qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with article 238 3 b of the treaty on the functioning of the european union 5 if a state which has withdrawn from the union asks to rejoin its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in article 49 here are three points made by article 50 the eu shall set out the arrangements for a member state s withdrawal the withdrawal agreement shall be negotiated by the council after obtaining the consent of the european parliament in other words if the parliament does not consent there can be no withdrawal agreement and evidently no withdrawal the treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question that is the withdrawing state is no longer a member of the eu as soon as the withdrawal agreement takes effect or failing that two years after the state notifies the union of its intent to withdraw unless the european council decides to extend this period wikipedia delian league encarta 96 delian league delian league federation of city states of ancient greece whose main purpose at the time was to prepare against a possible renewal of aggression by persia the league sometimes called confederation of delos was founded in 478 bc after the failure of a persian attempt to invade greece because it appeared probable that persian aggression might come by sea rather than by land athens as the greatest sea power in greece became the leading member of the league the confederation had its headquarters on the island of delos and each of the member states which at one time numbered more than 200 made a contribution in manpower and equipment in proportion to its resources as time passed fewer of the allies in the league contributed men and ships most of them substituting money payments which became in effect tribute to athens as this trend continued the program of the league gradually changed from one of defense against persia to that of strengthening athens when several members were restrained by force from seceding the alliance of sovereign states was transformed into what modern scholars call the athenian empire wikipedia greco persian wars the allies of athens were not released from their obligations to provide either money or ships despite the cessation of hostilities h g wells the outline of history and it was chiefly the poorer citizens of athens who sustained this empire by their most vigorous and incessant personal service every citizen was liable to military service at home or abroad between the ages of eighteen and sixty sometimes on purely athenian affairs and sometimes in defence of the cities of the empire whose citizens had bought themselves off posted by the arthurian at 11 17 am 0 comments friday february 13 2015 your choice you can dismiss this graph because it shows something called the money multiplier graph 1 the money multiplier or you can look at the damn thing and see what...
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