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Text of the page (random words):
ey savingsl for savings deposits stdsl for small denomination time deposits and rmfsl for retail money market mutual funds i started with fred s savings series but switched to savingsl when i noticed the other four end with the letters sl for the record the stdsl series notes say the small denomination time deposits component of m2 includes time deposits at banks and thrifts with balances less than 100 000 and the rmfsl series notes say the retail money funds component of m2 is constructed from weekly data collected by the investment company institute so both these series are at least in the ballpark if we re looking for components of m2 money here are those series all shown separately graph 1 m2 money dark blue and components a bit messy same data series shown as percent of m2 graph 2 components as percent of m2 oh that s not any better get rid of the m2sl series and look at the components as percent on a stacked area graph graph 3 components of m2 money a little easier to see now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday april 20 2015 how much money is in savings posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 10 comments sunday april 19 2015 historical federal workforce googling payroll of the federal government turned up a link to a table of total government employment since 1962 from the u s office of personnel management shows executive branch civilians uniformed military personnel legislative and judicial branch personnel and a totals column that google search also turned up this hit which i didn t bother to click the era of big government has returned with a vengeance in the form of the largest federal work force in modern history it says i had already seen the table of federal employment numbers 5 4 million employees in 1962 4 2 million in 2013 so i grabbed the federal employment numbers and stuck em in a spreadsheet then i went to fred and got the numbers for total us population and stuck that in there too then i made a graph of total federal employment as a percent of total us population graph 1 federal employment trending down since before the vietnam war is now below 1 5 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday april 18 2015 still looking for savings the other day i wrote do we have a vast quantity of savings stored up you know we do i don t like that i don t like pretending innuendo is evidence maybe it bothered you too i hope so i wanted to show vast savings on a graph but that wasn t as easy to find as i thought that day i skipped the graph i looked on friday but did not find i m looking again today and today i will take a different approach to the problem i will wander from fred i will see what other people have to say i remember steve roth a while back offering a definition of money i ve bruited the notion in the past that money should be technically defined as a term of art as the exchange value embodied in financial assets in this definition counterintuitively relative to the vernacular dollar bills aren t money they re embodiments of money as are checking account balances stocks bonds etc etc if this definition is safe then the stock of money i hate the term money supply which suggests a flow equals the total value of financial assets forget the endless wrangling about monetary base m1 m2 divisias and all that add up the value of all financial assets and that s the money stock i wasn t happy with that definition of money then but maybe i can use it now it s a very very broad definition of money and when you re pondering savings a broad measure is the right one to use roth shows graphs of total assets as a proxy for the stock of broad money i like that approach it gives me numbers to work with it s also the biggest money measure that comes to mind that s why i want to use it here from it i want to subtract the portion of money that is commonly used for transactions the part that i see as money and consider the rest to be savings by this method i may arrive at a measure of savings the biggest measure of savings that i can come up with you know vast savings i found a few links to estimates of total accumulated savings most of em unfortunately are like this gross savings plural figured as the part of gross domestic income that we don t spend that s a flow dammit stf might call it gross saving singular we were looking at gross savings in yesterday s post trying to trust that it is a stock without success maybe now we know why here s a world bank link on gross savings shows the same definition as the indexmundi clip their gross savings numbers for the u s are 2 38 trillion 2010 2 45 trillion 2011 2 7 trillion 2012 and 2 91 trillion 2013 the useful total assets links i found are shown next in date order rutledge capital may 24 2009 total assets 188 trillion as of 2008q4 yahoo finance october 22 2013 total assets 225 trillion as of 2012q3 wikipedia april 17 2015 total assets 269 6 trillion as of 2014q1 that s about it really maybe you can find more hey since we can now draw lines on fred graphs i m gonna show gdp and add this total asset data to the graph graph 1 gdp blue and total us assets red hey friggin wikipedia at the financial position of the united states page that i linked above among the graphs on the right side is a green one assets of the united states as a fraction of gdp 1960 2008 clicking that brings up a bigger image along with related data the graph is by equilibrium007 who would get the arthurian prize of the day if there was one i clicked more details below the graph is a summary section where the description includes a link to the source data clicking that brings up a page of the fed s data download program somewhere i ve never been before there is a package of 16 data series there for download or review see how easy it was to find all that data but you know i m not so sure now that i want to take total assets or even total financial assets and say that it s a good proxy for vast accumulated savings a lot of financial assets most of em maybe were not created by saving they were created by borrowers and lenders reaching agreements that create money from nothing it doesn t worry me that they create money from nothing but we surely cannot then turn around and say the assets were created by acts of saving if i go to the bank and borrow 1000 and the bank creates the money by depositing it in my account there was certainly no saving that accumulated to 1000 so that i could borrow it maybe it s true i think it is quite definitely true that after i borrow the money and spend it it soon finds its way into savings so there is going to be a relation between savings and assets like loans anyway and that might be a useful relation to look at but i don t think it s correct to look at assets and say there was that much accumulated savings nor even that there is going to be that much accumulated savings it just doesn t sit right my attempt to use total assets as a measure of accumulated savings was wrong headed posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday april 17 2015 looking for something definite stf left a concise statement a while back at winterspeak i thought that was great saving is a verb it is something we can do savings is a noun it is something we might have saving singular is the act of putting money away for later savings plural is the accumulation of money you have put away saving singular is the flow of money into a stockpile of savings this all works i adopted stf s terminology right away and now four and one half years later i m still trying to figure out if fred adheres to the clear and simple standard that stf laid out in that brief comment here is fred s savings plural deposits total graph 1 savings plural the noun something we might have this graph shows the accumulated stock of savings maybe so then if i were to show change billions of dollars or if i make it annual and show change from year ago billions of dollars that would be the flow variable or saving in the singular form if i m looking at what i think i m looking at how can i tell if i m looking at what i think i am for this dataset at fred the notes say in part the savings deposits component of m2 consists of passbook type savings deposits as well as mmdas at banks and thrifts so the graph shows a portion of m2 money and m2 is a stock of money not a flow of money if the graph shows a portion of a stock the portion it shows is a stock also not a flow i m confident of that so that corresponds to savings plural and now i think i m on the right track if i show the blue line as change from year ago and compare it to some measure of saving singular ah i found gross saving singular as a percentage of gross national income and i found gross national income for united states in current dollars this will work i can figure gross saving from it if gross saving is gs and gross national income is gni then fred s gross saving as a percent of gross national income looks like this to get the gross saving number from what fred gives me i only have to multiply by gni and divide by 100 working backward from fred s number i get gs gross saving singular i want to compare these gs numbers to the change from year ago billions of dollars version of graph 1 if they are the same or similar even then i will be confident that the series shown in graph 1 is the stock variable and is correctly plural i will also be confident that the gs numbers i calculated from the gross saving singular series is correctly singular i will have learned something i looked into this a few times before at least twice on the blog as i recall without ever making this much progress so i m doing good today here s the result graph 2 not even close we have not learned that graph 1 s blue savings plural shows a stock and graph 2 s red saving singular shows a flow we have not learned that fred follows stf s singular plural rule have we learned anything nothing definite but now i want to think that graph 1 since it doesn t show a stock shows a flow of deposits into savings but i don t see how that can be given fred s note that we looked at above maybe we learned that the singular plural rule does not apply to the words deposit and deposits and maybe we learned that gross and total don t mean the same thing oh well here is something dividing by 1000000000 on graph 2 converts the red line from current dollars to billions now you can t say you ve never seen anybody do that posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday april 16 2015 he thinks he s grumpy in a recent post cochrane says all money should be interest bearing his view is a concession to the world as it is today when most but not quite all money is interest bearing the cost of interest is the central underlying problem in the world today but not because interest rates are so low no that was a solution remember the cost of interest the accumulated cost of interest is a problem because there are so many dollars already that are interest bearing the problem in other words is that there is too much debt there is so much debt that even at the zero bound the cost of finance holds the economy down cochrane s opening talks up government debt i propose a new structure for u s federal debt all debt should be perpetual paying coupons forever with no principal payment then he gets into it quoting himself economists have long dreamed of interest paying money it fulfills milton friedman s 1969 optimal quantity of money without deflation paper money is free to produce so the economy should be satiated in liquidity mmm economists have long dreamed of interest paying money well we have that every dollar of debt public and private is a dollar that somebody put into circulation and is paying interest on to keep in circulation the problem is not that there s not enough interest bearing money around the problem is that most of the money we borrowed and spent into circulation and are still paying interest on most of that money is now sitting in somebody s savings account collecting interest we are paying interest on money we spent into circulation but that money has already settled out of circulation and somebody is collecting interest on it oh and the banks are making money at both ends of that arrangement meanwhile that arrangement does nothing to help the real economy cochrane quoting cochrane our economy invented inside interest paying electronic money in the form of money market funds overnight repurchase agreements and short term commercial paper and found it useful but that money failed suffering a run in the 2008 financial crisis yeah that money failed it gave us the 2008 financial crisis posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday april 15 2015 it ain t sociology 101 i found a chart recently a table comparing the ideas of different economists can t find it now dammit one column in the chart was for adam smith one item under adam smith said his thinking was class based well i didn t like that much and i went on to other things so now when i want to link to that table i can t find it so it goes maybe adam smith s thought is considered class based because he focused on the differences among three groups the owners of natural resources the workers and the owners of man made resources land labor and capital maybe smith s thought is considered class based for other reasons i don t know anything about that so i want to evaluate just the one notion that smith s focus on land labor and capital is class based i begin with schumpeter s thought that if we do not make distinctions we shall never be able to say any more than that everything depends upon everything adam smith looked at the world around him and he saw the aristocracy and he saw the commoners and he saw a rising new class or category those people who make money by doing business it didn t start out as business you know it started out as busyness but it grew in importance and adam smith caught it on the up swing does that make his work class based maybe if you don t look into what he says smith made distinctions because if you don t make distinctions you can t say anything interesting but the distinctions he made were realistic they were based on the world of his day and he didn t focus on classes of people he focused on types of income i don t like looking at things in terms of us and them the 99 and the 1 and like that i prefer to think in terms of categories of income not classes of people so adam smith makes sense to me as smith put it writing of wages profit and rent when those three different sorts of revenue belong to different persons they are readily distinguished but when they belong to the same they are sometimes confounded with one another at least in common language classes separate people but smith pointed out that any one person can receive income of various types so for him income was not distinguished by class of person it was distinguished by type of income he also identified different regulating factors for each type of in...
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