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e money multiplier was running nearly flat there was a stiff resistance to downtrend in the multiplier at that time now that s interesting and that was during the bush years explain that s the second of the two disturbances the other the first begins just after the 1990 recession peaks at the end of 1993 and returns to red by around mid 1997 can you explain this one i think i can the blue trend away from red from early 1991 to late 1993 matches up with a unique downtrend in the debt per dollar dpd ratio and the blue return to red from late 1993 to mid 1997 and then further to the end of 1999 matches up with the return to trend of the dpd i went back and started with the blue line again the money multiplier from graph 1 i added my debt per dollar ratio in green graph 3 the money multiplier blue and total debt per dollar green both of these ratios use fred s m1sl data series this may account for some of the similarity that will soon become apparent the blue line divides m1sl by the monetary base ambsl the green line divides accumulated public and private debt tcmdo by m1sl next i eyeballed two trend lines red for the money multiplier and black for debt per dollar graph 4 the multiplier and dpd with trend lines on graph 4 between the years 1990 and 2000 you see the disturbance where the blue line moves away from the red and then gradually returns this is the disturbance noted above that i said i can explain for the same 1990 2000 period you can see a disturbance where the green line moves away from the black and then gradually returns these two disturbances the blue and the green occur at the same time and display similar shapes except the one is the mirror opposite of the other i took graph 4 and highlighted the disturbance areas graph 5 the multiplier and dpd with the disturbances highlighted i think that s pretty interesting what does it mean i don t know but i don t need to know what it means today i never looked at the money multiplier this way before today i don t want to jump to any conclusions we have the beginning years the middle years and the ending years of the money multiplier all fitting themselves to that down trending red line and we have explained the first disturbance the disturbance of the 1990s all that remains is the second disturbance the bush years disturbance oh but you were going to explain that one but hey it s the money multiplier we re looking at here so maybe you should just dismiss it it s your choice posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday february 12 2015 what would you do the money multiplier graph 1 the fred series mult the money multiplier people say there s no such thing as the money multiplier but of course there is i just showed it to you it goes down on their notes tab fred says the m1 multiplier is the ratio of m1 to the st louis adjusted monetary base there is a data series for m1 and there is a series for the base and we can divide the one by the other to get the ratio doing that the ratio goes farther back in time than the mid 1980s graph 2 the money multiplier going back to 1959 it still goes down it goes down from 1959 to the mid 1980s jumps up just a bit and then wanders downhill more rapidly than before it s not what you d call stable if you were the fed you could put a dollar into the economy and see it become 3 50 or so but that worked only briefly in the 1960s your dollar would have become 3 if you did it sometime in the 1970s 2 50 briefly in the mid 90s then 2 around the year 2000 and then a little over a buck and a half just before the crisis then it dropped straight down to the 1 0 level where the fed adding a dollar to the economy resulted in no further increase at all and now it is below 1 0 so that when the fed adds a dollar to the economy only about 75 cents actually makes it into the economy the monetary multiplier has fallen to less than one people argue about the fiscal multiplier and whether it s greater than one people who favor government spending say yes people who oppose government spending say no they argue i guess because there s no clear evidence but there is clear evidence for the monetary multiplier and it is clearly less than one monetary stimulus in other words is most definitely not working the money multiplier is less than one okay so we know that monetary policy is not working but there is no clear evidence regarding fiscal policy what should we do what would you do i know what policymakers do they rely on monetary policy because the fiscal multiplier is low posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday february 11 2015 arnold j toynbee on the big endogenous social cycle from the somervell abridgement of a study of history in studying the growths of civilizations we found that they could be analysed into successions of performances of the drama of challenge and response and that the reason why one performance followed another was because each of the responses was not only successful in answering the particular challenge by which it had been evoked but was also instrumental in provoking a fresh challenge which arose each time out of the new situation that the successful response had brought about this repetitiveness or recurrency of challenge is likewise implied in the concept of disintegration but in this case the responses fail in consequence instead of a series of challenges each different in character from a predecessor which has been successfully met and relegated to past history we have the same challenge presented again and again when the outcome of each successive encounter is not victory but defeat the unanswered challenge can never be disposed of and is bound to present itself again and again until it either receives some tardy and imperfect answer or else brings about the destruction of the society which has shown itself inveterately incapable of responding to it effectively posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday february 10 2015 callahan and hoffmann on endogenous social cycles via la bocca della verità the ssrn download page for gene callahan and andreas hoffman s two population social cycle theories from the abstract discerning family resemblances in the world of theories can be useful for several reasons for one thing noticing that two theories share the traits of a family of theories may help us to understand each of them better secondly noticing the family resemblances may help us to model them more easily in this paper we note the large family of two population social cycle theories all based on a pattern of disruptions and adjustments akin to the well known predator prey model oh the predator prey model i know that one foxes and rabbits foxes eat rabbits so the rabbit population declines rabbits grow scarce so the fox population declines with fewer foxes hunting rabbits the rabbit population increases then the hunting is good so the fox population increases and again foxes eat rabbits so the rabbit population declines even i know that one callahan s blog is great so i figured i d give the ssrn paper a shot here s the first paragraph this paper sets out to describe and begin modeling what we argue is a related group of theories of social cycles all built on the framework of two populations each of which disrupts the other and adjusts to those disruptions leading to the emergence of cyclical patterns in society we find all of these theories akin to the well known predator prey model okay yeah and i m thinking of hegel s dialectic from encarta 96 the dialectical method involves the notion that movement or process or progress is the result of the conflict of opposites probably not relevant pdf page 3 of 30 gottfried haberler 1946 sets out a detailed schemata of business cycle theories attempting to place them into a family tree i ll have to look into that the reference is haberler g 1946 prosperity and depression a theoretical analysis of cyclical movements 3rd ed new york from pdf pages 4 5 in particular what we mean by a true and endogenous social cycle is different from the fact that people will tend to flock to the beach in the summer and the ski slopes in the winter that they tend to use more artificial lighting in the evening than in the day or that harvest festivals are in the fall while lamb is eaten in the spring a social scientist may be curious as to why say people go to the beach or why there are harvest festivals at all but given these things exist it is pretty obvious why they happen when they do while as we will see in our subsequent schema these are true cycles the generation of the cyclicality is clearly exogenous to the social world we may march through the same typical sequences of events repeatedly but the fault is in our stars or our solar system or the big bang or god but the basic cyclicality is not a social product and the social component consists in the chosen response to a cycle beyond human control what is of particular interest to the social scientist are cycles that arise endogenously in the social world and not just that are there purely social cycles that occur without being intended by anyone so if a village holds a maypole dance there is not much of a puzzle as to why the dancers keep winding up in the same places that is what they intended to do but if an economy repeatedly arrives at a high level of unemployment or a political regime keeps cycling through periods of order and of chaos then those events are far more curious presumably no one has arranged to have periodic business downturns or regular episodes of violent disorder but there they are there they are i knew it would be good posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments monday february 9 2015 like the grave of a zombie krugman the problem with private debt is that we have good reason to believe that in very wide open financial systems people get irrationally exuberant lending and borrowing to an extent that they eventually realize was excessive and that there are huge negative externalities when everyone tries to deleverage at once so people get irrationally exuberant huh it has nothing to do with incomes failing to keep up with costs nothing like that more to the point has it nothing to do with policies that lead to increased use of credit and the complete absence of policies which by accelerating the repayment of debt could prevent the increased use of credit from creating an accumulation of debt that sooner or later becomes unsustainable no it s only the foolishness of over exuberance professor krugman your explanation is shallow and empty posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday february 8 2015 after this morning s drubbing of milton friedman the franklin m fisher pdf is so old that my browser s search command can t find anything in it i can t find the syll quote that way so i thought i d read the thing and look for it here s what i m finding from page 3 the central question which concerned keynes in the general theory was that of how there could be a stable equilibrium with less than full employment the pdf is so old that when you copy and paste each word comes out on a line of its own and you have to fix all that the pdf is so old that it underlines book titles these days on the internet underlining is for links and book titles are generally put in italics the quote syll used is from page 4 but nothing about milton friedman there the pages are numbered the page with page number 4 is pdf page 7 of 54 the pdf is dated 1975 and appears to have been done on a typewriter remember typewriters posted by the arthurian at 12 00 pm 0 comments wasting our time this is one of those times i have to put something on the blog to improve my chances of being able to find it again later here it is in finding equilibrium lars p syll quotes franklin m fisher an extremely prominent economist milton friedman lps long ago remarked to me in passing that the study of stability is unimportant because it is obvious that the economy is stable and if it isn t we are all wasting our time come to think of it friedman was dissing maynard keynes for in chapter 2 of his general theory keynes wrote most treatises on the theory of value and production are primarily concerned with the distribution of a given volume of employed resources between different uses but the pure theory of what determines the actual employment of the available resources has seldom been examined in great detail i mean not that the topic has been overlooked but that the fundamental theory underlying it has been deemed so simple and obvious that it has received at the most a bare mention this book keynes says in his preface has evolved into what is primarily a study of the forces which determine changes in the scale of output and employment as a whole keynes then described his book as an attempt to understand the forces determining growth and the lack of growth to understand in a word instability milton friedman then described the work of keynes as a waste of time posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday february 7 2015 new puppy all else falls by the wayside lexi rottweiler and shepherd we got her thursday the bigger paw lower right is mish posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments friday february 6 2015 the politics of what if part of a quote from wolfgang streeck in syll s the politics of public debt what if a resumption of growth as implied by older traditions of political economy requires more public investment rather than less and perhaps also a reversal of the apparently inexorable trend toward ever more inequality what if it doesn t what if it doesn t require more public investment rather than less what about that nobody ever thinks to look for some other solution other than increasing government spending or decreasing government spending everybody is still fighting the last war the war on the great depression posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday february 5 2015 the decrease in price does him no good because the decrease in his income is greater recommended reading greg s destruction of production from unbalanced trade at another amateur economist posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments wednesday february 4 2015 a pretty pebble the grandchildren came to visit for the christmas holiday at dinner sam the three year old remembered putting eggs in cups a long time ago his grandmother deciphered putting eggs in cups as coloring easter eggs and said yes we ll be doing that again in just a few months sam has yet to learn of yearly events a couple times during his visit sam said he wanted to go in the pool it s too cold he was told he d have to wait until summer he has yet to learn of the yearly cycle of seasons he gets a few years older he ll learn these things by experience me i ve seen enough business cycles to think that when car companies are hawking interest rates below 2 in tv ads the recession is over but it took half my life to figure that out and we re talking cycles of ten years or less...
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