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hould be the best time of life but instead we are become flaming squid huggers look i am eager to learn stuff i don t know which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement but as you will understand i don t like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead brad delong copyright notice everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody often but not always that somebody is me for things that are not mine i either have obtained permission or claim fair use feel free to quote me but attribute please my photos and poetry are dear to my heart and may not be used without permission ditto my other intellectual property such as charts and graphs i m probably willing to share let s talk violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by rosanne barr mrs miller look her up and trombonists who are unable play in tune you cannot possibly imagine the agony if you have a question email me jazzbumpa gmail com i ll answer when i feel like it cheers tuesday october 21 2014 who am i in my own pov thoughts on theon greyjoy warning spoilers for adwd read more posted by jazzbumpa at 12 22 pm 1 comment labels asoiaf friday october 17 2014 industrial production index mark has a pessimistic l ook at the log of the industrial production index and sees a curved and flattening trend channel it s a good fit but i see it a bit differently the data set goes back to 1946 and the measurements follow a perfect linear trend channel through late 1981 you can always divide a curve into a series of straight line segments but when the first segment is half the data set you have to give it some credence as the trend candidate note also that when the trend fails it fails at the mid line of the channel this happens commonly in all sorts of data sets after a decline into early 83 pierces the former lower boundary a new upward trend with significantly lower slope developed this channel was also much narrower than the previous one the inability to sustain vigorous growth is yet another anemic manifestation of the great stagnation this trend failed by starting a decline from the top channel boundary in late 2000 then dribbling along the bottom boundary for about 3 years no surprise since the first decade of the century was marked by the closing of 10 s of thousands of factories the top in 2000 might have been the start of a new trend and i ve indicated it as such it s still slanting up though at a very weak slope since the bottom in 2009 production has made a comeback rising with a slope slightly greater than that of the 83 to early naughts trend it s approaching the upper bound of the presumed current trend channel on both my graph and on mark s whether you prefer mark s vision or mine a test of the upper limit is coming soon but with the economy at the effective demand limit i see very little chance that the upper channel boundary will be breached posted by jazzbumpa at 8 51 pm 1 comment labels disappointment economics thoughts on the royals i did a little google questing this afternoon mlb started the wild card in 1994 three years later a wild card team won the world series here is the complete list of wild card world series winners florida marlins 1997 anaheim angels 2002 florida marlins 2003 boston red sox 2004 st louis cardinals 2011 five incidents in 20 years so not at all rare this year the list will grow since the royals and the giants were both wild card teams this has only happened one other time in 2002 when the giants and angels met they were 95 and 99 game winners respectively this year s contenders were both sub 90 game winners so this outcome has to be considered a bit of a fluke i doubt that any team in any sport has ever fluked its way into a championship series like the royals did this year they were down 7 3 to the a s in the 8th inning of the single wild card playoff game scored three tied it in the 9th gave up a run in the top if the 12th and scored 2 to win in the bottom 9 8 exciting sure but a bit too story book for the real world i d say then they swept out the angels 98 game winners with two extra inning wins and a 3rd game 8 3 blow out three extra inning wins in a row says something about your bull pen but even more about luck in the regular season the royals scored 4 04 runs per game 14th of 30 mlb teams in the post season they ve outscored everybody with 42 runs in 8 games for a 5 25 average alcides escobar has hit 16 regular season home runs in 4 full years with the royals he knocked one out for the first run scored in the orioles series mike moustakas whose offensive stats have declined in each of his 4 years with the royals has hit 4 hrs in the playoffs in 32 plate appearances 1 in every 8 in the regular season he had 15 in 500 pas 1 in every 33 as a team the royals have 8 hrs in 8 games second only to the cardinals 15 in 9 games but with only 95 hr s this season the royals were dead last in the majors the cardinals btw were next to last with 105 in the regular season during the regular season the orioles hit 11 more than the entire state of missouri but only 6 in 7 post season games the royals have a decent rotation above average defense and perhaps the best bull pen in mlb what they do not have is offense up until these playoff games there is no rational explanation for the royals post season success one might suspect divine intervention but this is baseball and i consider it far more likely that someone has made a pact with the devil posted by jazzbumpa at 4 51 pm 1 comment labels snark sports newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom change in plans no 2 stock market musings are now located at amateur elliott amateur elliott welcome readers i know you re out there come on say something topic label list and links are at the bottom of this column have fun disclaimer do i need to point out that i am not a financial adviser registered stock analyst or anything other than a guy playing with ideas for his own amusement get your own data do your own thinking make your own decisions i am not telling anybody to do anything with even a single penny of their assets happy speculating gold via www kitco com change in plans starting sunday feb 6 2010 light hearted stuff has been moved to a new blog if you are meant to find it you probably will if you need directions write me meanwhile the heavy hearted and heavy handed stuff stays here cheers jzb rules of engagement over at angry bear mike kimel has posted a list of things to think about if you want to be taken seriously it might be worth your time to check it out a few are specific to his situation most are not examples 1 don t cite authority as proof 2 get your data from a reputable source 7 do not argue by assertion 15 time moves in a single direction about me jazzbumpa somewhere great lakes basin united states mediocre trombonist excellent grandfather reasonably decent husband concerned thinking citizen left leaning pseudo intellectual shallow analytical thinker versifier parodist snarkmeister amateur philologist grey haired old man occasional cook congenital smart ass view my complete profile about this blog main topics musings on politics and the economy snark oddities snark pictures music cross word puzzles snark possible humor life the universe and everything and the occasional fairy search this blog lijit search wijit lijit search my angry bear posts from 2013 are listed here from 2012 are listed here my take on the great stagnation what is the great stagnation what has changed since about 1980 i keep a running list here followers real life adventures 9 06 2010 visitor count from 10 2 09 view my stats my most prized possesion king 2b silversonic required reading common sense by thomas paine why america is important an anti royalist rabble rousing revolution inspiring polemic delong on the great depression screwed by thom hartman the undeclared war against the middle class and what we can do about it 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