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why the gt is called general is because keynes saw it as applying to all economies regardless of institutional framework and political system on this i think there is no room for misunderstanding we agree that you said this and we agree on what you meant by it we also agree keynes was attempting a theory of economic behaviour so of course mutatis mutandis if that theory is correct in one set of institutional circumstances it would fit all 2 ok next you cite the german preface of gt in support of your contention in 1 above 3 my argument is that while keynes may well have seen his theory as being applicable not only to economies with democratic institutions that was most definitely not his reason for using the term general unless i ve missed something altogether possible of course i see no scope for misunderstanding while i would contend the german preface is not a place to find keynes theory i do think what he says on page three is definitive and i m sure you know this passage well my added emphases i have called this book the general theory of employment interest and money placing the emphasis on the prefix general the object of such a title is to contrast the character of my arguments and conclusions with those of the classical theory of the subject upon which i was brought up and which dominates the economic thought both practical and theoretical of the governing and academic classes of this generation as it has for a hundred years past i shall argue that the postulates of the classical theory are applicable to a special case only and not to the general case the situation which it assumes being a limiting point of the possible positions of equilibrium moreover the characteristics of the special case assumed by the classical theory happen not to be those of the economic society in which we actually live with the result that its teaching is misleading and disastrous if we attempt to apply it to the facts of experience finally it is surely the case that keynes really did not think of marshall et al were simply writing about the victorian british economy whilst the general theory would apply to the victorian british economy as well as the german totalitarian economy and indeed any others his point is that the classical theory applies to no economy except in special circumstances yes i made you read the whole of chapter one twice now forgive me but it s an important paragraph it s important not to misunderstand it i think peter l has it exactly right emphases and all maynard was telling us that the economy is much bigger than we think bigger and more of a whole economists today argue whether something somebody said a hundred or a hundred and fifty years ago is right or wrong all else aside isn t that pathetic everybody is wrong sometimes but most people try to get it right any economist who is worth anything tries to get it right so taking the best of what someone offers that part of what they say is probably correct or close so why is it we take these things people said back when when the economy was different than it is now why is it we take these things and just call them wrong and reject them are we not being most disrespectful are we not missing the bigger picture are we not dismissing something brief clear and important enough to make it into the first chapter of the general theory in thoughts on brad s thoughts on economic theology robert waldmann quotes joseph stiglitz via brad delong a peculiar doctrine came to be accepted the so called neoclassical synthesis it argued that once markets were restored to full employment neoclassical principles would apply the economy would be efficient we should be clear this was not a theorem but a religious belief the idea was always suspect waldmann adds brad notes that the peculiar doctrine is due to keynes delong offers a different quote but that particular doctrine is the one keynes established in the first chapter which by now you ve read at least twice stiglitz rejects it delong says it is not true in practice and waldmann rejects it also saying i don t think that even given full employment markets are efficient i say markets were efficient at the time economists observed efficient markets the time of say and ricardo and smith today no but that s a different matter here s the thing stiglitz and delong and waldmann flat out reject the notion that markets can be efficient even when the special case holds true i think the special case is a unique time a peak in the cycle of civilization now really which view is more interesting posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments labels cycle of civilization friday july 25 2014 but it s yglesias big chains pay better than mom and pop stores says the title of the post but it s a story by matthew yglesias so i already have my doubts he writes high school graduates who work for companies with over 1 000 employees earn 15 percent more than similarly educated workers who are employed by smaller firms workers with at least a little college education see a bigger pay boost and earn 25 percent more when employed by big companies similarly for retail establishments the researchers find that not only do big companies pay higher wages but big stores pay higher wages high school graduates working at retail establishments with over 500 workers earn 26 percent more than similarly educated workers at smaller shops those with at least some college education again earn an even larger premium 36 percent more at big stores than small ones i wonder how those numbers would look if business size was based on volume of sales rather than number of employees how would it look if we compared worker pay to gross business income i want to see ratios of dollar values to dollar values rather than dollar values to head counts i don t think the bigger the better would hold up so well if you did the dollars to dollars comparison posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday july 24 2014 denominator problems at economist s view from james choi one of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by americans posted by the arthurian at 7 14 pm 0 comments if you ve gone postal lately tell us about your recent postal experience posted by the arthurian at 4 00 pm 1 comments descartes thanks be to god i did not find myself in a condition which obliged me to make a merchandise of science for the improvement of my fortune from descartes selections edited by ralph m eaton the modern student s library philosophy series charles scribner s sons new york 1927 page 8 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday july 23 2014 focus smith was not the first nor the only 18th century political economist he wrote just before what we call the industrial revolution his focus was on history not the future he did not make predictions for the future he tried to understand the past as a guide to the present gavin kennedy on adam smith posted by the arthurian at 10 52 pm 0 comments what s wrong with economic theory today one of the first of the considerations that occurred to me was that there is very often less perfection in works composed of several portions and carried out by the hands of various masters than in those on which one individual alone has worked descartes posted by the arthurian at 10 22 pm 1 comments tuesday july 22 2014 but they haven t learned how to theorize frances woolley at wci they can follow the most complicated plans and build any model they are asked to build but they struggle to come with an idea of their own to decide what they want to build nothing in their training has encouraged them to fill their minds with ideas nor taught them to distinguish the awesome from the not so awesome posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday july 20 2014 new and different i want to make it clear that i am talking about a new and different policy we have a new and different chairman at the federal reserve janet yellen but having a new and different chairman does not necessarily mean new and different policy from brookings fed unveils a new job market index by david wessel in her testimony to congress this week ms yellen said that significant slack remains in the labor markets and noted that wages are rising very slowly all of which points to an economy which has not yet fully recovered from the great recession and still needs the sustenance of low interest rates most people might evaluate yellen s remark by focusing on whether or not significant slack remains everyone is wagging the same tongue the economy is recovering or it is not it is time to raise interest rates or it is not inflation is just around the corner or it is not endless prattle tiresome and nonproductive open your mind this is not the thing we have one policy that lowers interest rates to boost economic growth and another policy that raises interest rates to fight inflation that s not it this is it we have a policy that raises or lowers interest rates depending on whether we are more concerned about inflation or growth it is one policy we change interest rates it is only one policy with two phases you might say so if we toss aside one fed chairman and install another hoping to see or not to see a change in the path of interest rates this is not a change it would be a change if we were to abandon our policy of raising and lowering interest rates and adopt some other policy or combination of policies in its place that would be a change that would be new and different thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest for that may enable the so called boom to last the right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi slump but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi boom j m keynes david wessel says janet yellen says that the economy still needs the sustenance of low interest rates no not still needs the economy always needs the sustenance of low interest rates but this means we cannot raise interest rates as a policy tool to fight inflation and that means we need a different policy tool to fight inflation see this is what i mean by new and different it isn t new and different if we push interest rates up instead of down it isn t new and different if we hold interest rates down instead of letting them up it s not different if we exhale instead of inhale it would be different if we suddenly got gills or if we started absorbing oxygen through the skin and didn t need lungs anymore that would be different we have to keep interest rates on the low side always so that the economy can grow if you do not reject this idea immediately you can think about it and you must say but if interest rates remain low there will be too much borrowing and spending and we will get inflation you are right so let us examine the problem that arises if we keep interest rates low we get too much borrowing the increased borrowing leads to increased spending and the increased spending leads to inflation okay that wasn t nearly as painful as i thought now if we keep interest rates low and remain permanently in a quasi boom we get increased borrowing and increased spending we get increasing debt and increasing prices this is undeniable it happened in the 1960s and 70s and yet did you notice in the years after 2008 there was a great deleveraging debt stopped increasing and the money supply stopped growing the fed responded with bizarre emergency measures boosting the quantity of money to avoid deflation people focused on paying down debt and the threat of inflation disappeared did you notice paying down debt is a way to fight inflation suppose we keep interest rates low and as a result we see an increase in borrowing and the growth of debt we see an increase in spending and rising prices but if we can only find a way to encourage a more rapid paydown of debt we can have the increase in borrowing without seeing the growth of debt we can get the economic vigor that comes from new borrowing without having to face the significant slack that arises from an excessive burden of debt and if we find a way to encourage more rapid paydown of debt the paydown of debt will drain money from the spending stream limit the increase of spending and limit inflation if we can only find a way to encourage a more rapid paydown of debt child s play all we have to do is start weeding out the policies that encourage use of credit and accumulation of debt and replace them with policies designed to accelerate the repayment of debt this is what i mean by new and different policy not interest rates that run high and low like the tides rather a commitment to low rates and strong growth permanently and commitment to a tax policy that fights inflation by accelerating the repayment of debt and by preventing the excessive accumulation of private debt permanently this is what i mean by new and different more an arthurian future geanakoplos and the can of worms sumner engages the crystal ball posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday july 19 2014 penn world tables the notes tab of fred s total factor productivity page has a for more information link to the research tab at penn world table pwt the pwt page offers several tables including a data table that table lists several measures of real gdp but also da and ga development accounting and growth accounting da provides the sources of differences in living standards at a point in time that sounds interesting the words living standards capture one s attention ga growth accounting provides the sources of economic growth over time not too long ago i looked a bit at the solow growth model it s something i want to look at again i clicked this one here s a piece of what i got data goes back to 1950 that s decent several countries okay capital stock values yeah that s related to the solow growth model okay if they re so blunt as to present that particular set of nations instead of maybe the g7 nations they have to be bold enough to make it easy to change what shows up on the list yup see that red dot in the upper left just above the table adjust criteria you got it there s a lot of countries to pick from and more and it s pretty intuitive and the adjust criteria page has a red dot in the upper right pointing right that gets you back to the data table very nice something i never saw on line before in the table in the header area at the left it says toggle display i didn t try that one yet but to the right of it there are four little arrows hover over the down arrow and a tag says change order hover over the diagonal arrow and the tag says move to y axis that i never saw on line before i didn t play with the buttons i adjusted the criteria to show only u s data because i m focused or myopic whatever the previous table shows capital stock at constant 2005 national prices for half a dozen countries the following table shows capital stock and four other growth accounting re...
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