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ber 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 how does it get from this balance sheet to that one red tips financial cycles squeezing a balloon how to recognize pseudoscience parsimony occam s income money value wealth piketty lovers must read let s go surfing now as bogus as a three dollar bill related fragments at asymptosis modern monetarist thoughts on wea gillibrand is one of 29 co sponsors of the measur when it s too late it ll be too late there s nothing wrong with the common trope the repayment of household debt simple nuanced monetarism something must have caused it marcus comes up empty one interesting thought gavin kennedy a metaphor is a metaphor fungal inflation myth in the myth of the great moderation squaring the circle maybe the problem is excessive debt zero hedge two points non financial sector productive sector five short blasts forum an important ratio i said a little and reduced it graeber said noth a way in to minsky paying down debt is the right way to fight inflation the best guarantee of full employment and price s author libertarian and american enterprise i april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math 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as money in circulation at any given moment that pipe going out of and back into the money bathtub is instantaneous it s either in this account or it s in that account it s never in between or in transmission there is not money out there on the highway as there are cars money doesn t actually move there are only changes in the tallies on balance sheets dollar bills are just physical tokens representing balance sheet tallies see r wray on the origins and nature of money it s on this balance sheet or it s on that balance sheet it s on this balance sheet or it s on that balance sheet steve says but how does it get from this balance sheet to that one at last we have hit upon the difference between accounting and economics accounting deals with balance sheets economics deals with forces that change balance sheets adam smith comments the gold and silver which can properly be considered as accumulated or stored up in any country may be distinguished into three parts first the circulating money secondly the plate of private families and last of all the money which may have been collected by many years parsimony and laid up in the treasury of the prince there is money we plan to spend and money we plan not to spend the former is in circulation the latter is savings it s that simple the federal reserve defines this clearly on the notes tab for the m1sl series m1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending the m1 number the funds that are readily accessible for spending is probably a little more than the amount of money people plan to spend because everybody wants to save a dollar the spending money i have that gets me through the week i don t want to be broke on payday i want a few bucks left over anyway suppose we take total outstanding debt as a measure of total outstanding money this is somewhat like steve roth saying that the total value of assets is money accumulated debt is a measure of money that exists somewhere that borrowers are still paying interest on because they didn t pay off the debt yet they didn t extinguish the money so we can take the funds available for spending fred s m1sl and compare that number to accumulated debt as a proxy for the total amount of money that exists that people are paying interest to maintain in existence fred s tcmdo graph 1 m1 the money we use to pay off debt per dollar of debt in 1960 there was about 20 cents of circulating money that is the money that becomes income for each dollar of accumulated debt that number was down below ten cents by 1980 today there is only about four cents of circulating money for every dollar of debt four cents no wonder debt seems a burden today every dollar of that debt corresponds to a dollar of money that was newly created when the debt was created the debt still exists so where is the other 96 cents a lot of it went into savings and other financial assets and out of circulation there s a big focus these days on income inequality here s the root of the problem some people are earning interest and others are paying interest on more and more and more of the money in our economy it s a mad house a mad house the graph shows there s only four cents left with which to pay the interest and principal on a dollar of debt and still do everything else we need money for and paying off a dollar of debt reduces that four cents by a dollar posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 11 comments friday may 30 2014 red tips this graph shows percent change from the previous quarter of household assets with blue for total assets and red for financial assets graph 1 percent change in total assets blue and total financial assets red quarterly data notice the red tips on all the high and low points tells me that the change in financial assets is consistently more volatile than the change in total assets assuming total assets is the sum of financial and non financial assets the graph tells me that the difference in volatility would be even more if we compared financial assets to non financial assets to do that look at financial assets and total assets less financial assets change in total financial assets red same as graph 1 and total non financial assets blue the difference in volatility is much greater in this graph non financial assets consistently are far more stable than financial assets posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday may 29 2014 financial cycles you never know what s gonna turn up responding to steve roth i poked and prodded assets just a bit at fred this one didn t allow me to make any bold claims so i didn t use it graph 1 total financial assets as a percent of total assets among households but thinking about it later i remembered it as a cyclic pattern the repeating ups and downs there was a sudden slight gasp and i said i wonder if that matches borio s financial cycle i pulled borio s graph from an old post graph 2 borio s the business cycle red and the financial cycle blue as it happens borio s graph has a see through background made my day i overlaid his graph on the other then scaled it down and moved it to make the dates match and the recession bars line up i got tips from stackoverflow com for both overlaying and scaling i hope it works on everybody s device borio s graph has a gray background so it s easy to find on the fred graph the numbers are tiny and hard to read but you can see the recession bars okay and you can refer back to graph 2 for the numbers here s the fred graph with the borio overlay graph 3 the combo graph nah the blue lines don t show a similar pattern too bad but i noticed something there is a definite downtrend during the great inflation when financial asset values eroded before the great inflation when the economy was good there was an uptrend and toward the end during the bubbles there were uptrends maybe not during the bubbles that last uptrend runs from 2006 to 2011 like after the bubble and all through the crisis huh the ratio of financial assets to total assets doesn t seem related to economic performance i find that surprising no conclusions yet posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday may 28 2014 squeezing a balloon on 21 may at asymptosis and at angry bear steve roth wrote i ve bruited the notion in the past that money should be technically defined as a term of art as the exchange value embodied in financial assets in the past in other words steve has spread the idea that the definition of money should be such and so as given in the excerpt above maybe he has spread that idea in the past and regrets it now or maybe he is continuing to spread that idea in his post of the 21st i assume the latter but let s leave the door open roth in this definition counterintuitively relative to the vernacular dollar bills aren t money they re embodiments of money as are checking account balances stocks bonds etc etc i think that s supposed to be a clarification the list of financial assets creates an aura of familiarity but forget the list and focus on the statement in this definition dollar bills aren t money they re embodiments of money that s his second use of the word embody and we re only three sentences in to the post so roth says dollar bills aren t money they re just a tangible or visible form of money or the representation or expression of money dollar bills and all the other kinds of financial assets are not money but are representations of money more words less meaning skip a sentence and resume with the next paragraph if this definition is safe then the stock of money equals the total value of financial assets forget the endless wrangling about monetary base m1 m2 divisias and all that add up the value of all financial assets and that s the money stock another list forget the list roth is saying that financial assets are the money stock or possibly that the value of all those financial assets is the money stock in a comment on mine roth writes one thing i m saying is that financial assets money is wrong you keep saying i m saying that and i m not so i guess he means it s the value of all those financial assets that is the money stock not the assets but money is not value and value is not money it s like squeezing a balloon for a moment it feels like you ve got something but squeeze a little tighter and there s nothing there posted by the arthurian at 9 12 pm 9 comments how to recognize pseudoscience parsimony occam s razor from paranormal phenomena info does the theory require you to discard any established laws of physics or other science if so is the new theory really more robust than the old remember the theory which is simplest and relies on the least number of unproven assumptions is most likely to be correct that s not bad related links how to detect junk science carl sagan s bullshit detection kit posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday may 27 2014 income money value wealth steve roth of 24 may the key and i think hugely simplifying and clarifying distinction money is to financial assets as e...
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