Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
february, 2015, the, and, debt, thursday, tuesday, monday, sunday, of, is, new, saturday, friday, wednesday, it, on, not, in, arthurian, economics, long, again, excellent, good, but, forgiveness, what, endogenous, social, decrease, accumulation, google, translate, blog, archive, links, labels, 28, 27, 26, 24, 23, 22, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, story, live, prosper, think, cyclical, burping, up, let, draw, conclusion, labor, nonlabor, costs, decline, international, competitiveness, rousseau, wachtel, 2008, that, complicated, credit, use, for, growth, accumulated, so, effect, non, linear, mortgage, relief, act, cancellation, victor, ehrenberg, from, solon, to, socrates, greece, now, then, your, choice, would, you, do, arnold, toynbee, big, cycle, callahan, hoffmann, cycles, like, grave, zombie, after, this, morning, drubbing, milton, friedman, wasting, our, time, puppy, politics, if, price, does, him, no, because, his, income, greater, pretty, pebble, croatia, there, back, he, sure, which, doesn, matter,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (705), and (247), that (157), debt (111), was (60), for (59), but (55), growth (55), from (54), you (47), not (44), with (42), this (37), february (35), graph (35), have (33), money (33), what (33), there (32), #arthurian (31), financial (31), more (30), #credit (30), comments (29), has (29), posted (28), which (28), are (28), they (27), than (27), 2015 (27), then (25), years (25), use (25), multiplier (25), economy (24), all (23), can (23), time (23), may (23), economic (22), two (22), one (22), line (22), when (21), after (21), again (20), out (20), social (19), costs (18), think (18), new (17), cost (17), just (17), policy (17), people (17), good (17), would (16), same (16), its (16), about (16), because (16), were (16), red (16), solon (16), gdp (16), even (15), their (15), don (15), see (15), other (15), point (14), less (14), currency (14), into (14), between (14), pdf (14), fred (13), how (13), only (13), been (13), like (13), these (13), back (13), know (13), will (12), them (12), did (12), cycle (12), trend (12), thing (12), say (12), down (12), january (12), sector (12), september (12), def (12), interest (11), borrowing (11), problem (11), inflation (11), way (11), came (11), his (11), cycles (11), find (11), spending (11), had (11), shows (11), blue (11), state (11), shall (11), european (11), effect (11), make (10), high (10), level (10), levels (10), end (10), could (10), income (10), doesn (10), most (10), who (10), our (10), some (10), year (10), over (10), page (10), first (10), why (10), march (10), period (10), council (10), unit (10), finance (9), does (9), tax (9), help (9), get (9), want (9), said (9), forgiveness (9), long (9), look (9), world (9), those (9), blog (9), here (9), theory (9), data (9), evidence (9), member (9), union (9), power (9), development (9), labor (9), april (9), june (9), july (9), august (9), october (9), november (9), december (9), rates (8), now (8), monetary (8), series (8), system (8), population (8), always (8), during (8), your (8), put (8), each (8), theories (8), before (8), dollar (8), disturbance (8), athens (8), non (8), real (8), nonlabor (8), 1985 (8), image (8), fed (7), says (7), any (7), break (7), also (7), ratio (7), government (7), three (7), old (7), few (7), pretty (7), sometimes (7), friedman (7), read (7), family (7), goes (7), crisis (7), away (7), green (7), withdrawal (7), agreement (7), league (7), 2011 (7), demand (7), taxes (7), economics (7), 1960 (7), sure (6), given (6), increases (6), little (6), much (6), service (6), either (6), low (6), makes (6), mid (6), things (6), post (6), croatia (6), yeah (6), restore (6), recession (6), civilization (6), sense (6), public (6), still (6), great (6), keynes (6), milton (6), nothing (6), increased (6), very (6), cyclical (6), challenge (6), history (6), around (6), where (6), longer (6), land (6), socrates (6), change (6), linear (6), rousseau (6), wachtel (6), bad (6), moderate (6), excellent (6), louis (5), increase (5), accumulation (5), obvious (5), takes (5), pay (5), faster (5), push (5), ever (5), something (5), until (5), work (5), particular (5), become (5), kind (5), called (5), monday (5), start (5), citizens (5), yet (5), business (5), 2000 (5), thursday (5), rather (5), politics (5), puppy (5), later (5), understand (5), different (5), general (5), pages (5), question (5), morning (5), model (5), rabbits (5), okay (5), endogenous (5), periods (5), argue (5), download (5), words (5), working (5), set (5), interesting (5), early (5), returns (5), gradually (5), 2009 (5), second (5), dpd (5), accumulated (5), article (5), greece (5), tried (5), decline (5), slower (5), button (5), google (5), bank (4), posts (4), home (4), lending (4), matter (4), rate (4), should (4), small (4), drag (4), above (4), big (4), well (4), accelerated (4), repayment (4), fiscal (4), else (4), among (4), society (4), without (4), loan (4), sunday (4), michael (4), empire (4), late (4), excessive (4), call (4), since (4), anything (4), best (4), debts (4), tuesday (4), ago (4), learn (4), times (4), took (4), economist (4), price (4), syll (4), last (4), got (4), right (4), book (4), study (4), resources (4), full (4), krugman (4), private (4), once (4), callahan (4), foxes (4), paper (4), fall (4), while (4), analysis (4), better (4), worked (4), straight (4), further (4), clear (4), choice (4), except (4), disturbances (4), explain (4), per (4), started (4), both (4), account (4), looking (4), states (4), law (4), include (4), repay (4), labels (4), associated (4), 2013 (4), competitiveness (4), factor (4), 2010 (4), blogger (4), didn (4), chrome (4), windows (4), graphs (3), federal (3), http (3), him (3), older (3), several (3), create (3), lot (3), large (3), cannot (3), really (3), raising (3), congress (3), everyone (3), brings (3), far (3), soon (3), standard (3), vigor (3), let (3), banks (3), off (3), situation (3), smith (3), wealth (3), century (3), became (3), washington (3), fresh (3), 000 (3), accounts (3), everybody (3), baker (3), today (3), 1960s (3), economists (3), scheme (3), based (3), number (3), significant (3), country (3), whose (3), sam (3), eggs (3), yes (3), events (3), couple (3), below (3), half (3), instead (3), pebble (3), context (3), wednesday (3), reading (3), another (3), production (3), decrease (3), greater (3), part (3), quote (3), investment (3), political (3), friday (3), lower (3), saturday (3), improve (3), forces (3), output (3), employment (3), whole (3), value (3), concerned (3), mean (3), passing (3), stable (3), wasting (3), equilibrium (3), browser (3), own (3), done (3), failing (3), keep (3), policies (3), becomes (3), open (3), negative (3), grave (3), predator (3), prey (3), rabbit (3), declines (3), true (3), clearly (3), response (3), related (3), known (3), share (3), responses (3), never (3), such (3), course (3), base (3), briefly (3), guess (3), notes (3), might (3), four (3), stories (3), 1990s (3), 2000s (3), suddenly (3), return (3), running (3), flat (3), downtrend (3), 1990 (3), 1993 (3), m1sl (3), lines (3), display (3), consent (3), parliament (3), withdraw (3), abroad (3), athenian (3), cities (3), persian (3), delian (3), against (3), payments (3), decides (3), accordance (3), taking (3), treaty (3), victor (3), ehrenberg (3), causes (3), foreign (3), centuries (3), security (3), likely (3), thus (3), free (3), age (3), ends (3), everything (3), amount (3), lender (3), obligation (3), mortgage (3), relief (3), act (3), 1965 (3), impact (3), spread (3), services (3), capital (3), household (3), flashing (3), disconnected (3), hudson (3), goods (3), important (3), international (3), ignore (3), role (3), issue (3), www (3), net (3), relative (3), circulation (3), log (3), values (3), slope (3), quantity (3), curve (3), coinage (3), questions (3), upload (3), trust (3), mistake (3), shut (3), safe (3), mode (3), window (3), story (3), reimage (3), repair (3), timeline (3), productivity (3), reserve (2), 2016 (2), research (2), org (2), lead (2), newer (2), winterspeak (2), evolution (2), companies (2), offers (2), rising (2), producing (2), sectors (2), varies (2), higher (2), equal (2), existing (2), boost (2), required (2), bigger (2), slows (2), fight (2), taxpayer (2), wanted (2), providing (2), using (2), excessively (2), finesse (2), wisdom (2), chosen (2), choose (2), purpose (2), commercial (2), function (2), paid (2), moral (2), ultimately (2), worth (2), eye (2), adam (2), revenues (2), ancient (2), william (2), paying (2), nations (2), crises (2), mainly (2), renewal (2), diocletian (2), affect (2), 317 (2), blocked (2), helps (2), evidently (2), dean (2), regarded (2), told (2), skeptical (2), whether (2), poorest (2), benefit (2), unusual (2), canceled (2), visit (2), remembered (2), putting (2), cups (2), doing (2), yearly (2), too (2), summer (2), life (2), recognize (2), 100 (2), won (2), carry (2), pull (2), recommended (2), destruction (2), trade (2), increasing (2), war (2), depression (2), implied (2), perhaps (2), lexi (2), being (2), come (2), primarily (2), described (2), attempt (2), word (2), waste (2), preface (2), volume (2), uses (2), topic (2), simple (2), received (2), franklin (2), fisher (2), finding (2), thought (2), titles (2), links (2), generally (2), numbered (2), drubbing (2), irrationally (2), exuberant (2), complete (2), accelerating (2), prevent (2), unsustainable (2), reason (2), extent (2), eventually (2), huge (2), zombie (2), abstract (2), eat (2), grow (2), fox (2), fewer (2), hunting (2), figured (2), ssrn (2), paragraph (2), thinking (2), encarta (2), relevant (2), haberler (2), 1946 (2), sets (2), fact (2), tend (2), beach (2), artificial (2), day (2), harvest (2), festivals (2), scientist (2), curious (2), cyclicality (2), through (2), typical (2), repeatedly (2), product (2), component (2), beyond (2), purely (2), occur (2), intended (2), anyone (2), order (2), prosperity (2), notion (2), result (2), framework (2), disruptions (2), leading (2), akin (2), resemblances (2), noticing (2), hoffmann (2), found (2), followed (2), successful (2), disintegration (2), consequence (2), predecessor (2), itself (2), answer (2), arnold (2), toynbee (2), 1980s (2), 1959 (2), bit (2), downhill (2), rapidly (2), 1970s (2), stimulus (2), going (2), dismiss (2), runs (2), 1999 (2), boundary (2), must (2), sudden (2), almost (2), bush (2), begins (2), 1997 (2), matches (2), divides (2), black (2), moves (2), similar (2), highlighted (2), middle (2), themselves (2), maybe (2), points (2), made (2), negotiated (2), obtaining (2), treaties (2), cease (2), apply (2), withdrawing (2), poorer (2), military (2), allies (2), ships (2), despite (2), wikipedia (2), prepare (2), possible (2), aggression (2), persia (2), confederation (2), delos (2), failure (2), sea (2), passed (2), men (2), changed (2), force (2), unless (2), extend (2), arrangements (2), light (2), future (2), relationship (2), functioning (2), concluded (2), qualified (2), majority (2), referred (2), purposes (2), london (2), introductory (2), growing (2), community (2), supreme (2), domestic (2), strong (2), gained (2), importance (2), till (2), nobility (2), wealthy (2), families (2), bonds (2), affected (2), peasantry (2), hardly (2), aristotle (2), plight (2), exactly (2), facts (2), influence (2), loans (2), persons (2), sale (2), rule (2), man (2), cancelled (2), please (2), neither (2), wrong (2), side (2), sixth (2), fifth (2), greek (2), irs (2), sentences (2), count (2), turns (2), forgiven (2), cancel (2), proceeds (2), cancellation (2), aizenman (2), references (2), deepening (2), statistically (2), 2004 (2), global (2), depth (2), flow (2), sectoral (2), consistent (2), manufacturing (2), asia (2), insurance (2), estate (2), latin (2), america (2), efficiency (2), deposit (2), 1992 (2), show (2), effects (2), nice (2), cecchetti (2), 2012 (2), vanishing (2), recent (2), though (2), difference (2), dammit (2), getting (2), stuff (2), month (2), improves (2), payment (2), mind (2), hurts (2), complicated (2), link (2), 2008 (2), drove (2), pushed (2), subsistence (2), markets (2), mathew (2), decker (2), prices (2), compared (2), paecon (2), paereview (2), issue57 (2), hudson57 (2), review (2), nonfinancial (2), corporations (2), bls (2), natural (2), upward (2), numbers (2), uptrend (2), head (2), quick (2), printing (2), 2014 (2), burping (2), loose (2), acts (2), koning (2), rome (2), royal (2), live (2), prosper (2), sad (2), nimoy (2), hours (2), 8pm (2), thankfully (2), spock (2), lives (2), couldn (2), load (2), happened (2), click (2), somebody (2), check (2), firefox (2), message (2), problems (2), pressed (2), clicked (2), writing (2), preview (2), 2018 (2), sumner (2), loops (2), laffer (2), jerry (2), historical (2), banking (2), five (2), expectations (2), dave (2), ross (2), translate (2), html (2), john (2), charts (2), venn (2), rights, reserved, appear, courtesy, stlouisfed, fred2, horse, water, drink, stay, thirsty, friends, subscribe, atom, describes, lists, tech, summary, contribute, consuming, massive, reach, scenario, pushes, alternative, implement, indebtedness, vary, example, booming, punitive, troubled, designed, reduce, credits, leaving, pronged, encourage, jacking, meaning, determined, max, taxpayers, surely, provides, maximum, accumulate, primary, making, evaluations, company, accompanying, risk, hazard, bubble, keeping, technology, unbundling, wood, saxon, kings, england, victuals, provisions, sorts, conqueror, introduced, custom, third, roman, worthless, forced, raise, requisitions, army, foodstuffs, supplies, 270s, onwards, romans, under, emperor, reorganized, elaborate, taxation, renovatio, domesday, expected, million, cause, lethargy, focus, convince, least, unprecedented, exceptional, comparable, director, center, succeed, indebted, major, burden, six, predictions, remain, starting, thousands, gift, wiped, named, aims, croatians, due, grandchildren, christmas, holiday, dinner, grandmother, deciphered, coloring, easter, months, pool, cold, wait, seasons, gets, experience, seen, enough, car, hawking, ads, figure, talking, ten, doubts, expect, annual, pocket, greg, amateur, unbalanced, wolfgang, streeck, require, nobody, thinks, solution, decreasing, fighting, resumption, traditions, requires, reversal, apparently, inexorable, toward, inequality, falls, wayside, rottweiler, shepherd, her, paw, mish, chances, able, lars, quotes, dissing, maynard, wrote, evolved, determine, changes, scale, determining, lack, instability, treatises, distribution, employed, pure, determines, available, seldom, examined, detail, overlooked, fundamental, underlying, deemed, bare, mention, actual, chapter, extremely, prominent, lps, remarked, stability, unimportant, isn, search, command, copy, paste, comes, fix, underlines, days, internet, underlining, italics, used, dated, 1975, appears, typewriter, remember, typewriters, central, huh, incomes, absence, creating, sooner, foolishness, exuberance, professor, explanation, shallow, empty, believe, wide, systems, realize, externalities, tries, deleverage, via, gene, andreas, hoffman, scarce, give, shot, hegel, dialectic, probably, gottfried, detailed, schemata, attempting, place, tree, reference, knew, flock, ski, slopes, winter, lighting, evening, lamb, eaten, spring, exist, happen, subsequent, schema, generation, exogenous, sequences, fault, stars, solar, bang, god, basic, consists, human, control, arise, endogenously, village, holds, maypole, dance, puzzle, dancers, winding, places, arrives, unemployment, regime, keeps, cycling, chaos, presumably, arranged, periodic, downturns, regular, episodes, violent, disorder, 3rd, york, theoretical, movements, dialectical, method, involves, movement, process, progress, conflict, opposites, describe, begin, modeling, group, built, populations, disrupts, adjusts, emergence, patterns, discerning, useful, reasons, traits, secondly, easily, note, pattern, adjustments, bocca, della, verità , studying, growths, civilizations, analysed, successions, performances, drama, performance, answering, evoked, instrumental, provoking, arose, brought, repetitiveness, recurrency, likewise, concept, case, fail, challenges, character, successfully, met, relegated, past, presented, outcome, successive, encounter, victory, defeat, unanswered, disposed, bound, present, receives, tardy, imperfect, shown, inveterately, incapable, responding, effectively, somervell, abridgement, showed, tab, adjusted, divide, farther, jumps, wanders, sometime, 90s, buck, dropped, adding, resulted, adds, cents, actually, fallen, favor, oppose, definitely, regarding, policymakers, rely, mult, damn, discover, 1987, peak, remarkably, fit, lows, midway, close, punching, thru, minimum, downtrending, waiting, passage, behind, midst, bernanke, eight, drop, decade, nearly, stiff, resistance, peaks, 1991, unique, went, added, ratios, similarity, apparent, ambsl, tcmdo, next, eyeballed, noted, shapes, mirror, opposite, areas, need, means, looked, jump, conclusions, beginning, ending, fitting, trending, explained, remains, hey, total, edge, channel, notifies, intent, chiefly, sustained, vigorous, incessant, personal, every, citizen, liable, ages, eighteen, sixty, affairs, defence, bought, outline, wells, released, obligations, provide, cessation, hostilities, greco, wars, federation, city, main, founded, 478, invade, appeared, probable, greatest, headquarters, island, 200, contribution, manpower, equipment, proportion, contributed, substituting, tribute, continued, program, defense, strengthening, members, restrained, seceding, alliance, sovereign, transformed, modern, scholars, decide, constitutional, requirements, notify, intention, guidelines, provided, negotiate, conclude, setting, 218, behalf, acting, date, entry, notification, unanimously, paragraphs, representing, participate, discussions, decisions, concerning, defined, 238, withdrawn, asks, rejoin, request, subject, procedure, consolidated, excerpts, methuen, ltd, 1968, material, onward, oppression, injustice, complaint, needed, stronger, authority, unified, peace, various, opportunity, seized, individual, leaders, personalities, usurpation, greeks, tyrants, pottery, flourished, ninth, eighth, landowners, corn, growers, cattle, breeders, cultivators, olives, vines, minority, held, fertile, attic, plains, farmers, lived, hills, firmly, entrenched, kinship, cult, neighbourhood, seriously, slow, rise, face, undermined, severely, shook, enmities, noble, blood, bath, ended, cylonian, affair, symptoms, conditions, otherwise, writes, civic, struggle, nobles, classes, sorry, depends, established, began, exert, produce, seems, unlimited, widespread, send, colonies, bar, dividing, ordinary, frequently, division, farms, many, peasants, fell, maintains, debtor, slavery, ultimate, peasant, neighbour, quite, common, expressly, rich, unfair, opportunities, reproached, avarice, arrogance, condemning, grounds, knows, danger, elected, archon, 594, 593, foremost, debtors, cancelling, shaking, burdens, certainly, radical, measure, loss, creditors, touch, substance, forbade, person, wife, enslaved, thereby, dracon, road, nature, reasoned, approach, principle, learnt, hard, proudly, claimed, demos, honour, sufficient, nor, granting, riches, equally, cared, suffer, stood, holding, shield, allow, prevail, justice, priori, seisachtheia, hesiod, includes, culmination, archaic, finest, flowering, classical, fourth, spite, plato, praxiteles, poet, statesman, politician, speaks, epoch, execution, unforgivable, crime, restored, democracy, traced, origins, extremist, extremes, perfect, happens, drives, breaks, camel, practically, shuts, turn, owe, someone, forgive, taxable, borrow, cancels, forgives, depending, circumstances, borrowed, subsequently, normally, reportable, vox, joshua, yothin, jinjarak, donghyun, park, nonlinear, footnote, list, happening, inquiry, 276, 288, fore, possibility, suggests, sample, countries, overall, hypotheses, forth, outset, uneven, across, addition, east, positive, measured, positively, dutch, disease, larger, footnotes, boyd, quality, intermediation, flows, interpretation, lucas, paradox, flowing, uphill, attention, imbalances, laura, 2003, wei, therein, kharroubi, affects, industry, results, philippon, reshef, diminishing, abrupt, contractions, studies, identify, mechanisms, minsky, 1974, hypothesis, divert, financing, activities, speculative, destabilising, risky, bubbly, yield, seeking, investments, developing, comparative, stephen, mohanty, fabrizio, zampolli, evaluate, corporate, opening, flashes, saying, emphasize, boosts, bill, anymore, trying, idea, harms, harm, easier, bear, balance, offset, principles, creates, welfare, enhances, damaging, burgeoning, empirical, literature, illustrated, consensus, however, cross, panel, weakened, considerably, liberalization, diminished, wages, reduced, similarly, merchant, emigrated, holland, settle, 1702, influential, published, 1744, attributed, deterioration, britain, levied, charges, threatened, exports, imposing, prodigious, upon, hindrance, food, essentials, wage, employers, obliged, hence, charge, ridden, essay, meaningful, degree, applies, drawn, pricing, perception, represents, distributing, match, indexed, meet, falling, outrageous, especially, considering, view, indicator, potential, consumption, fixed, imports, subsidies, miscellaneous, current, transfer, repeating, indeed, indication, compares, grew, slowly, quickly, occured, leave, acceleration, together, therefore, confirm, entirely, contained, earlier, voila, draw, conclusion, ways, barrel, behavior, decentralization, dark, doomed, repeat, sees, privatize, issuance, cash, innovators, seventh, prerogative, par, excellence, episcopal, monastic, churches, treasury, collected, profits, coining, mints, multiplied, chateau, castra, vici, mere, villas, striking, fashion, ferdinand, picked, delay, alligators, useable, griped, figuring, hasn, night, leonard, spent, news, articles, settled, images, uploaded, felt, mourning, swear, assassination, jfk, anyway, awake, basically, step, wouldn, depressed, popped, fine, clock, googled, operating, idiot, 4am, ask, stupid, code, screwed, bullshit, bunch, follow, seemed, switched, refreshing, easy, downloaded, slightly
Text of the page (random words):
each of the responses was not only successful in answering the particular challenge by which it had been evoked but was also instrumental in provoking a fresh challenge which arose each time out of the new situation that the successful response had brought about this repetitiveness or recurrency of challenge is likewise implied in the concept of disintegration but in this case the responses fail in consequence instead of a series of challenges each different in character from a predecessor which has been successfully met and relegated to past history we have the same challenge presented again and again when the outcome of each successive encounter is not victory but defeat the unanswered challenge can never be disposed of and is bound to present itself again and again until it either receives some tardy and imperfect answer or else brings about the destruction of the society which has shown itself inveterately incapable of responding to it effectively posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday february 10 2015 callahan and hoffmann on endogenous social cycles via la bocca della verità the ssrn download page for gene callahan and andreas hoffman s two population social cycle theories from the abstract discerning family resemblances in the world of theories can be useful for several reasons for one thing noticing that two theories share the traits of a family of theories may help us to understand each of them better secondly noticing the family resemblances may help us to model them more easily in this paper we note the large family of two population social cycle theories all based on a pattern of disruptions and adjustments akin to the well known predator prey model oh the predator prey model i know that one foxes and rabbits foxes eat rabbits so the rabbit population declines rabbits grow scarce so the fox population declines with fewer foxes hunting rabbits the rabbit population increases then the hunting is good so the fox population increases and again foxes eat rabbits so the rabbit population declines even i know that one callahan s blog is great so i figured i d give the ssrn paper a shot here s the first paragraph this paper sets out to describe and begin modeling what we argue is a related group of theories of social cycles all built on the framework of two populations each of which disrupts the other and adjusts to those disruptions leading to the emergence of cyclical patterns in society we find all of these theories akin to the well known predator prey model okay yeah and i m thinking of hegel s dialectic from encarta 96 the dialectical method involves the notion that movement or process or progress is the result of the conflict of opposites probably not relevant pdf page 3 of 30 gottfried haberler 1946 sets out a detailed schemata of business cycle theories attempting to place them into a family tree i ll have to look into that the reference is haberler g 1946 prosperity and depression a theoretical analysis of cyclical movements 3rd ed new york from pdf pages 4 5 in particular what we mean by a true and endogenous social cycle is different from the fact that people will tend to flock to the beach in the summer and the ski slopes in the winter that they tend to use more artificial lighting in the evening than in the day or that harvest festivals are in the fall while lamb is eaten in the spring a social scientist may be curious as to why say people go to the beach or why there are harvest festivals at all but given these things exist it is pretty obvious why they happen when they do while as we will see in our subsequent schema these are true cycles the generation of the cyclicality is clearly exogenous to the social world we may march through the same typical sequences of events repeatedly but the fault is in our stars or our solar system or the big bang or god but the basic cyclicality is not a social product and the social component consists in the chosen response to a cycle beyond human control what is of particular interest to the social scientist are cycles that arise endogenously in the social world and not just that are there purely social cycles that occur without being intended by anyone so if a village holds a maypole dance there is not much of a puzzle as to why the dancers keep winding up in the same places that is what they intended to do but if an economy repeatedly arrives at a high level of unemployment or a political regime keeps cycling through periods of order and of chaos then those events are far more curious presumably no one has arranged to have periodic business downturns or regular episodes of violent disorder but there they are there they are i knew it would be good posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments monday february 9 2015 like the grave of a zombie krugman the problem with private debt is that we have good reason to believe that in very wide open financial systems people get irrationally exuberant lending and borrowing to an extent that they eventually realize was excessive and that there are huge negative externalities when everyone tries to deleverage at once so people get irrationally exuberant huh it has nothing to do with incomes failing to keep up with costs nothing like that more to the point has it nothing to do with policies that lead to increased use of credit and the complete absence of policies which by accelerating the repayment of debt could prevent the increased use of credit from creating an accumulation of debt that sooner or later becomes unsustainable no it s only the foolishness of over exuberance professor krugman your explanation is shallow and empty posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday february 8 2015 after this morning s drubbing of milton friedman the franklin m fisher pdf is so old that my browser s search command can t find anything in it i can t find the syll quote that way so i thought i d read the thing and look for it here s what i m finding from page 3 the central question which concerned keynes in the general theory was that of how there could be a stable equilibrium with less than full employment the pdf is so old that when you copy and paste each word comes out on a line of its own and you have to fix all that the pdf is so old that it underlines book titles these days on the internet underlining is for links and book titles are generally put in italics the quote syll used is from page 4 but nothing about milton friedman there the pages are numbered the page with page number 4 is pdf page 7 of 54 the pdf is dated 1975 and appears to have been done on a typewriter remember typewriters posted by the arthurian at 12 00 pm 0 comments wasting our time this is one of those times i have to put something on the blog to improve my chances of being able to find it again later here it is in finding equilibrium lars p syll quotes franklin m fisher an extremely prominent economist milton friedman lps long ago remarked to me in passing that the study of stability is unimportant because it is obvious that the economy is stable and if it isn t we are all wasting our time come to think of it friedman was dissing maynard keynes for in chapter 2 of his general theory keynes wrote most treatises on the theory of value and production are primarily concerned with the distribution of a given volume of employed resources between different uses but the pure theory of what determines the actual employment of the available resources has seldom been examined in great detail i mean not that the topic has been overlooked but that the fundamental theory underlying it has been deemed so simple and obvious that it has received at the most a bare mention this book keynes says in his preface has evolved into what is primarily a study of the forces which determine changes in the scale of output and employment as a whole keynes then described his book as an attempt to understand the forces determining growth and the lack of growth to understand in a word instability milton friedman then described the work of keynes as a waste of time posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday february 7 2015 new puppy all else falls by the wayside lexi rottweiler and shepherd we got her thursday the bigger paw lower right is mish posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments friday february 6 2015 the politics of what if part of a quote from wolfgang streeck in syll s the politics of public debt what if a resumption of growth as implied by older traditions of political economy requires more public investment rather than less and perhaps also a reversal of the apparently inexorable trend toward ever more inequality what if it doesn t what if it doesn t require more public investment rather than less what about that nobody ever thinks to look for some other solution other than increasing government spending or decreasing government spending everybody is still fighting the last war the war on the great depression posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments thursday february 5 2015 the decrease in price does him no good because the decrease in his income is greater recommended reading greg s destruction of production from unbalanced trade at another amateur economist posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments wednesday february 4 2015 a pretty pebble the grandchildren came to visit for the christmas holiday at dinner sam the three year old remembered putting eggs in cups a long time ago his grandmother deciphered putting eggs in cups as coloring easter eggs and said yes we ll be doing that again in just a few months sam has yet to learn of yearly events a couple times during his visit sam said he wanted to go in the pool it s too cold he was told he d have to wait until summer he has yet to learn of the yearly cycle of seasons he gets a few years older he ll learn these things by experience me i ve seen enough business cycles to think that when car companies are hawking interest rates below 2 in tv ads the recession is over but it took half my life to figure that out and we re talking cycles of ten years or less who will recognize 50 year 80 year 100 year cycles everyone will have doubts who will recognize the 2000 year cycle of civilization you won t see it if you expect to find it the way we find annual cycles and business cycles instead carry the c of c like a pretty pebble in your pocket that you want to pull out sometimes to look at see if the world makes more sense when you think of things in the context of a cycle of civilization posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday february 3 2015 debt forgiveness in croatia from the washington post croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens starting monday thousands of croatia s poorest citizens will benefit from an unusual gift they will have their debts wiped out named fresh start the government scheme aims to help some of the 317 000 croatians whose bank accounts have been blocked due to their debts fresh start is expected to affect about 60 000 of the 317 000 with blocked bank accounts out of croatia s population of 4 4 million people the number of indebted citizens is significant and has become a major economic burden for the country after six years of recession growth predictions for croatia s economy remain low for this year yeah among economists the scheme is regarded as unprecedented and exceptional i can t think of anything comparable dean baker co director of the washington based center for economic and policy research told the washington post some economists among them baker are skeptical whether the scheme will succeed i am not sure that this is the best way to help low income people yeah no don t think of it that way don t think of debt forgiveness as a way to help low income people think of debt forgiveness as a way to restore vigor to the economy debt forgiveness helps everybody evidently dean baker does not see excessive accumulation of debt as the cause of economic lethargy if he did he would call for more debt forgiveness not less this is always my focus to convince people that excessive debt slows the economy that this is our problem today and that it has been the problem in the u s at least since the 1960s posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday february 2 2015 there and back again from domesday by michael wood in the mid third century after a series of economic crises the currency of the roman empire became worthless and the government was forced to raise most of its revenues by requisitions in kind and to pay the army mainly in kind with foodstuffs and supplies then from the 270s onwards came what the late romans called the renovatio the renewal under the emperor diocletian it was diocletian who reorganized things into an elaborate system of taxation in kind from the wealth of nations by adam smith the revenues of the ancient saxon kings of england are said to have been paid not in money but in kind that is in victuals and provisions of all sorts william the conqueror introduced the custom of paying them in money posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday february 1 2015 he s not sure which but it doesn t matter in technology and the unbundling of commercial banks winterspeak describes the evolution of finance and lists several new high tech lending companies he offers this summary the primary purpose of commercial banks the function that makes them banks is making credit evaluations any company which takes on that function without the accompanying risk if the loan is not paid off is in a moral hazard situation which will ultimately create a credit bubble i m not sure which of these does that but worth keeping an eye on i m not sure which winterspeak says no matter which they all create debt so they all contribute to rising financial cost they all increase costs for the producing and consuming sectors at any given interest rate the cost of finance varies with the level of debt accumulation the more debt the higher the cost it should be obvious that as the cost of finance increases the break even point for new borrowing also increases it takes little borrowing to equal the financial cost of a small debt but it takes a lot of borrowing to equal the cost of a massive debt the break even point is how much we have to pay to service existing debt when new borrowing is less than the break even point the boost from borrowing is less than the drag from existing debt only above the break even point does new borrowing boost economic growth when debt is large high levels of new borrowing are required just to reach the break even point but high levels of new borrowing make a big debt bigger faster and push the break even point even higher this is a scenario that cannot end well the problem is not borrowing really the problem is that we let borrowing accumulate as debt the only policy we have that ever slows the growth of debt is raising interest rates to fight inflation but raising interest rates increases the cost of finance and pushes...
|
