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growth to debt led growth i have trouble with that it suggests new borrowing grew significantly faster in the later period but that s not correct back in march at new left project andrew kliman evaluated sam gindin s take on the global economic crisis kliman wrote according to gindin workers incomes stagnated as their wages declined or grew slowly this not only boosted profits but also contributed substantially to the growth of the financial sector as workers became dependent on credit in order to keep their standard of living from falling in particular they came to depend heavily on their homes as collateral for borrowings however although gindin cites a lot of data elsewhere in his article almost no hard evidence accompanies this account of capitalism under neoliberalism and the hard evidence fails to support much of it since something like this account has become conventional wisdom among much of the left it is important to review the facts in detail according to kliman the conventional wisdom is not correct he says the share of personal consumption spending funded by consumer credit i e all household borrowing except for home mortgages did not rise over time in other words consumption did not increasingly come to depend on consumer credit consumption did not increasingly come to depend on consumer credit that assertion of kliman s stopped me cold the first time i read his article it should make you stop too it should make you second guess yourself as it did me well maybe you don t like second guessing yourself but i m pretty sure you do like this the fisher dynamics of household debt as mark thoma said this research knocks a hole in the story that it was lack of self control that caused the increase in household debt prior to the financial crisis when thoma says it wasn t a lack of self control he means it wasn t increased borrowing that caused debt to increase at thoma s link jw mason summarizes the research it s a well known fact that household debt has exploded in recent decades rising from 50 percent of gdp in 1980 to over 100 percent on the eve of the great recession it s also well known that household borrowing has increased sharply over this period in fact though while the first of these is certainly true the second is not mason says the same thing as kliman we think consumption increasingly came to depend on credit since 1980 but that s not correct now you have to stop and think now you have to take a step back from the conventional wisdom doesn t matter how cute that five minute video was we have to get this right debt grew faster after 1980 than before not because of an increase in borrowing but because of the disinflation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 7 comments saturday may 10 2014 squaring the circle from the world economy may well be stuck in neutral for years it is now nearly seven years since the start of the financial crisis yet despite growing evidence in america and britain of a return to relative normality something remains profoundly broken at the heart of the world economy one manifestation of this much discussed among the officials finance ministers and central bankers gathered in washington this week for the spring meeting of the international monetary fund is the persistence of unnaturally low interest rates very low interest rates are in essence the natural corollary of a stagnating economy money has rarely been as abundant and cheap but there is nowhere productive for it to go unfortunately no meaningful way of squaring the circle is offered money has rarely been as abundant and cheap but there is nowhere productive for it to go that s not quite right there is nowhere profitable for the money to go in the productive sector that s what they mean i think but it s not what they said and being unclear on that small point is the reason there seems no way to square the circle there s too much money in finance not enough money is spent out of finance basically not enough money is pissed away money that you piss away is how other people make a profit if you refuse to do anything with your money other than count it nobody can profit at your expense if the people with all the money all hang on to it nobody can make a profit as long as nobody can make a profit there is nowhere profitable for money to go and when there s nowhere profitable for money to go people say things like there is nowhere productive for it to go posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday may 9 2014 maybe the problem is excessive debt syll quotes roger farmer the nk economist accepts milton friedman s concept of the natural rate of unemployment which asserts that in the long run there is a unique equilibrium level of unemployment associated with stable inflationary expectations if inflation appears following a recession a policy maker who accepts nk economics will infer that the economy is operating above potential if unemployment is now 6 rather than 3 it must be that the natural rate of unemployment has increased okay but why has the natural rate of unemployment increased sunspots c mon jack something must have caused it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments thursday may 8 2014 zero hedge two points from here s a chart you won t see on cnbc at zero hedge today we are happy that more are starting to notice this simple math problem here is deutsche bank s torsten slok who is the latest to be struck by this revelation if you look at cash levels relative to debt levels you find that corporate cash holdings are at the lowest level in 15 years good point cash or let s say money relative to debt is an important measure hmmm where have i seen it before today i am happy that zh is starting to notice zero hedge makes a good follow up point of course as long as rates are low and keep declining this record debt hoard is not a big issue once rates start going up however nobody would possibly have been able to foresee the absolute massacre that will take place at corporations levered with publicly tradable debt to never before seen levels you hear that all the time about government debt if rates go up there ll be a problem but it is just as true outside of government as in as zh notes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments wednesday may 7 2014 non financial sector productive sector from 3 april the point is not that there s just as much financial income as there is financial cost the point is that there s no production nor any consumption associated with either financial income or financial cost every dollar of credit that was used for production or for consumption could instead have been spent out of income there need be no loss of production or of consumption by this different economics there is only less need for finance it all comes down to management of money government has to make its money such that people want to use and accumulate it but government must prevent people from accumulating so much of it that they undermine the government s management of its money you ll often see people say the government must prevent people from spending so much money that the result is inflation my focus is not so much on the using as on the accumulating on the failure to use the balance between use and accumulation is key related post disastrous cumulative and far reaching repercussions of saving posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday may 6 2014 five short blasts forum pete murphy writes real sciences are rooted in data and real scientists go unafraid wherever the data takes them scientists examine all possibilities i like that go unafraid wherever the data takes you that s it yeah posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday may 5 2014 an important ratio nick edmonds the quantity that is determined by bank lending is not money but total bank debt money our purchasing power is just a subset of that and is not fixed by the amount of lending that s right and the relation between the two quantities is an important one the debt to money ratio increased from 1916 to 1970 except during the fdr years graph 1 total public and private debt per circulating dollar after fdr our economy saw a golden age followed by the end of those good times but the debt to money ratio continued increasing until the crisis except for a few years just before the good economy of the latter 1990s graph 2 total tcmdo debt per circulating dollar when the ratio is low and increasing the economy is good when the ratio is high and increasing the economy struggles when the ratio falls whether by policy or crisis it creates conditions for the return of the good economy keep the ratio permanently low by creating policies that accelerate the repayment of debt and we create the monetary conditions for a permanent quasi boom posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday may 4 2014 i said a little and reduced it graeber said nothing and expanded on it here s what i wrote what is debt debt is a measure of credit that has been put to use and a record of required repayment debt is a cost here are words that fill the box repeated by the usually excellent syll what is debt what s been happening since nixon went off the gold standard in 1971 has just been another turn of the wheel though of course it never happens the same way twice however in one sense i think we ve been going about things backwards in the past periods dominated by virtual credit money have also been periods where there have been social protections for debtors once you recognize that money is just a social construct a credit an iou then first of all what is to stop people from generating it endlessly focus now the question was what is debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments saturday may 3 2014 a way in to minsky at debtwatch a 16 minute talk by steve keen oh the accent reminds me of our computer guy at work keen uses his minsky software to model the economy under austerity and stimulus it wasn t awesome but i don t wish i could have my 16 minutes back anyway you can download both minsky and the model from the link excellent if you ve been thinking about experimenting with minsky 19 meg as a zip file wow i ll let you know how it works out posted by the arthurian at 7 53 am 3 comments paying down debt is the right way to fight inflation why is paying down debt the right way to fight inflation in our time you re kidding right look at the damn graph graph 1 gdp red and total credit market debt blue posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday may 2 2014 the best guarantee of full employment and price stability is full employment and price stability comparing unemployment and inflation rates to federal reserve targets ed dolan writes first as market monetarists point out the best guarantee of full employment and price stability over the long run is steady growth of nominal gdp in the range of 4 to 5 percent per year comparing irving fisher s debt deflation theory of great depressions to frank herbert s dune story geerussell writes market monetarists would be the guild navigators huffing spice and folding space to move from point a to point b avoiding everything in between that sums it up perfectly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday may 1 2014 author libertarian and american enterprise institute scholar real time bill maher episode 315 25 april 2014 bill maher s guests included charles murray author libertarian and american enterprise institute scholar i transcribed some of the conversation from episode 315 beginning at 42 50 charles murray but if you re talking about taxes here s the real problem if you want to jack up the rates on the really rich the amounts of money that that ll bring in are trivial compared to jacking up rates on the middle class the money if you want to raise more money it s going to have to come from tax rate increases on the middle class and nobody s going to do that maher i agree murray nobody s gonna do it maher well if they have to they will i m sure murray s argument is not that rich people are poor his argument must be that there just aren t enough rich people to make taxing them worthwhile want to argue that point don t you could rebut him with the story that the worlds richest 85 people have more money than the poorest three billion whatever the numbers were i don t remember but don t get sucked in you know their argument is bullshit the we have to balance the federal budget argument don t let them make an argument based on the need to balance the federal budget don t let them choose the topic murray presents a picture of our economy that is like a snapshot a still life it s a picture of a big hole in the ground the federal debt and a big pile of dirt which is the money that the rich people have or the poor people or somebody murray wants us to buy this static image discover that we re the ones with the big pile of dirt and and i don t know what he wants us to decide not to want to fill the hole that can t be right maybe he wants us to throw our hands up in disgust and give up our quest i want you to realize that the static image is the wrong image the economy isn t static the economy is dynamic the economy is motion the economy is activity the economy is transaction income flow you don t fill the hole by shoveling this pile of dirt into that hole you fill the hole gradually a little at a time in a full length motion picture by tweaking things every now and then when a pile seems to be getting too big or a hole too deep if you re talking about taxes you re talking about tweaking things i don t want to jack up the rates on the really rich i think we should have a standard deduction well above poverty level and a flat tax on income over that a flat percentage that would work out to be progressive because of the large standard deduction and then we should have an upper limit to what a person can earn in a year a lower limit on the value of the dollar is what that is and wealthy people should like that idea and on income above that upper limit the tax rate is 100 not 70 or 90 or any kind of equivocation like that a one hundred percent tax on income above whatever ten million dollars a year maybe ten million is too high from my perspective but the dollar s not worth much any more tweak it set a limit you don t raise taxes to raise more money you tweak taxes to get money flowing in the directions you want and then when people learn how to take advantage of the tax code that s the lucas critique i think you change the tax code again did you notice i m not talking about how high or low taxes should be i m talking about what kind of taxes we should have posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom you can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink stay thirsty my friends fred graphs federal reserve bank of st louis 2016 all rights reserved all fred graphs appear courtesy of federal reserve bank of st louis http 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