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a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 two stories order and balance it was private borrowing not public borrowing t looking failure in the face private debt 2012 17 cheap talk something s missing a roundabout definition of liquidity and other th notes on labor excess reserves in japan joão marcus thanks for writing gimmick of the week ngdp targeting there must be a better way core concept validated again china private debt 2012 16 why do you think that from your friends at cia purchasing power parity not enough foresight even in hindsight eventually there is no alternative if you do not look you can not see ouroboros and irony velocity land labor capital and finance holding that thought private debt 2012 15 870b 693b 730b the good son incompleteness 2 results and the claims of causality incompleteness dwb to the extent that spending is credit financed private debt 2012 14 mcconnell economics 1975 new feature at the times the fdr years scarecrow pretending that finance has no cost arithmetic is not economics jim glass at worthwhile canadian conditions are perfect march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the 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economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman monday april 30 2012 two stories from the atlantic of 27 april the 2 catastrophe how one number explains the miserable economy by matthew o brien i don t like it part of the problem is attitude the careless way o brien presents his ideas about fixing the economy the federal reserve is crucifying the u s economy on a cross of two percent inflation he writes the fed has fetishized two percent inflation he writes who s afraid of 3 but the bigger problem is that his economic analysis is flawed if the economy is running too hot the fed raises interest rates if it s running cold it lowers rates for 30 years this worked spectacularly recessions were rare and shallow inflation was low then 2008 happened even zero interest rates weren t enough to revive the collapsing economy for 30 years this worked spectacularly then 2008 happened yeah but 2008 was where the economy was heading for 30 years matthew o brien overlooks that and those years were not spectacular they were moderate we had moderate growth moderate inflation moderate recessions and moderate jobless recoveries and then those thirty years ended spectacularly it doesn t seem to matter to mr o brien why things were no better than moderate for so long nor does it seem to matter to him why the ending was spectacular he doesn t even appear to see the connection between the long moderating economy and its ultimate shutdown if the economy is running too hot the fed raises interest rates if it s running cold it lowers rates he says but in the end even zero interest rates weren t enough to revive the collapsing economy o brien s analysis is wrong he leads us to imagine that the fed pushed interest rates up and down in some kind of random walk then dropped them all the way to zero in 2008 this is totally inaccurate interest rates trended down for thirty years the walk was not random despite the ups and downs it was all downhill since 1981 it was all downhill graph 1 the federal funds rate since 1981 interest rates moderated just like inflation growth wages and everything else interest rates worked their way down as low as they could go when they couldn t go any lower they were no longer useful for boosting an economy that was running cold that made the economy unfixable since interest rates are all we seem to know not really the same story matthew o brien tells is it posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday april 29 2012 order and balance david lawson reviews the new book demand side economics by alan harvey at steve keen s debtwatch lawson quotes from the book this demand side economics is not new it was originated and developed by the great british economist john maynard keynes it is called demand side economics because demand is the fundamental driver of economic progress and constraint in economic stagnation we describe and display the demand side framework by following its development through the thought of a series of influential economists beginning with keynes okay but let me point out two things second in the general theory 1936 keynes wrote all production is for the purpose of ultimately satisfying a consumer first in the wealth of nations 1776 adam smith wrote consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production iterated but anyway it seems to me that smith and keynes both are saying production and consumption supply and demand balance in all things especially these posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments saturday april 28 2012 it was private borrowing not public borrowing that created the mess from paul krugman s leveraging deleveraging and fiscal policy spain and ireland were running budget surpluses not deficits before the crisis it was private borrowing not public borrowing that created the mess yes absolutely it was but say some commenters this was nonetheless malfeasance on the part of the authorities they should have been running even bigger surpluses to offset the private credit bubble does that work no if you look at a graph of private versus public debt and think about how the trend fits with economic performance this is where you end up when private debt is relatively low it has room to expand and when private debt expands the economy grows well but when private debt expands it becomes relatively high and when private debt is relatively high it chokes off growth graph 1 total nonfinancial nonfederal debt relative to the gross federal debt the initial increase corresponds to the golden age the post 1994 increase corresponds to the macroeconomic miracle that being the case the evidence says big government surpluses do not effectively offset big private deficits moreover making the government surpluses bigger makes private debt relatively higher and that only makes things worse yes it was private borrowing that created the mess posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday april 27 2012 looking failure in the face the st louis fed s featured economist on 25 april morning was william t gavin whose latest work is what is potential gdp and why does it matter federal reserve bank of st louis economic synopses apr 20 short pdf page and a half my kind of stuff gavin says pgdp is a measure of the best we can do in an imperfect world fair enough he says policymakers estimate pgdp by smoothing out actual gdp and he admits that the accuracy of our estimate depends on the accuracy of our long term forecast he also points out the importance of pgdp policymakers use it to set policy gavin provides a graph showing two versions of pgdp one from just before the crisis and one from a few years after the higher level of potential gdp was estimated in 2007 and the lower level in 2011 the reduced 2011 estimate reflects the impact of sluggish gdp growth over the past three years since they don t know how to bring conditions up to meet expectations policymakers are lowering their expectations to match conditions source what is potential gdp and why does it matter pdf see that box there on gavin s chart the box shows that the 2007 estimate was wrong by almost 10 in 2009 and by more than 11 in 2011 but the 2011 estimate was off by only about 7 in 2009 and by about 5½ in 2011 the implication is that the newer estimate is better if the forecast is less wrong it must be better right lest i am too subtle the reason we study the economy is to make things better not to put the best face on failure posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels historical revisionism thursday april 26 2012 private debt 2012 17 cheap talk this story is told over and over again look how high the federal debt is blue line the federal debt as a percent of gdp but this story inexplicably remains untold blue line the federal debt as a percent of gdp red line total debt as a percent of gdp the blue line shows the same debt in both pictures posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday april 25 2012 something s missing a second look at part of bezemer and gardiner s pdf from yesterday from the introduction thus the study of monetary policies is not just the study of tweaking interest rates of deciding on the rate of printing money or of using taxpayers money to bail out banks it is the study of administering financial accounting processes on the macroeconomic level differentiating between types of assets and liabilities look at what bezemer and gardiner want to include in monetary policy tweaking interest rates deciding on the rate of printing money using taxpayers money to bail out banks administering financial accounting processes on the macroeconomic level differentiating between types of assets and liabilities the reason i had to come back to this bit of the pdf is that something is still missing from that list tweaking interest rates that s always what the fed does to get the inflation pressures where we want them wherever that may be deciding on the rate of printing money that s the same thing using taxpayers money to bail out banks this is part of the response to the unusual circumstances and the last one that s beyond my ken bur here s the thing for about as long as anybody has been alive we have been using monetary restriction to fight inflation and credit use to stimulate economic growth the problem is that we never change this application of policy tools we always use tight money to fight inflation and we always use easy credit to stimulate this skews the playing field by reducing the quantity of money while expanding the reliance on credit and it makes the economy s behavior increasingly unusual one of our basic assumptions is that printing money causes inflation from this we come to believe that if there is inflation there must too much money everyone seems to believe this 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