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oggle display i didn t try that one yet but to the right of it there are four little arrows hover over the down arrow and a tag says change order hover over the diagonal arrow and the tag says move to y axis that i never saw on line before i didn t play with the buttons i adjusted the criteria to show only u s data because i m focused or myopic whatever the previous table shows capital stock at constant 2005 national prices for half a dozen countries the following table shows capital stock and four other growth accounting related data categories if you need to see it bigger click the image or just go to penn world tables i like the place already posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday july 18 2014 they re five cents lower per pound on welding wire you know you have to compare prices to get the best deal you also know that the big companies can give you lower prices than the little companies it s buying in bulk or economies of scale or some such thing but let me ask you this do you think it s right that the government should help the big companies more than it helps little ones help walmart drive mom n pop out of business is that right certainly not and yet we have a business income tax system that lets you write off all your expenses gives you a tax break for all your expenses so if you re mom n pop with business expenses of a hundred thousand a year you avoid paying taxes on 100 000 if you re one of the big guys with business expenses of several billion dollars a year you avoid taxes on several billion dollars because of our tax system our tax system favors bigness and then we moan about too big to fail btw the total amount of business income tax deductions is approximately twice the size of gdp posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments thursday july 17 2014 scatterplotting debt at the fred blog debt and deficit to gdp dynamics three scatter plots of government debt versus government deficit since 2001 graphs for the u s japan and the euro area i will only look at u s data the opening sentence of the fred blog post several historical examples show that financial crises generate large increases in private and public debt that take many years and sometimes drastic measures to resolve sadly ironically typically they speak of private and public debt but they only look at public debt that s okay i ll fill in the blank here s the first graph from the fred blog post graph 1 federal debt vertical scale versus federal deficit horizontal scale 2001 2013 the uppermost red dot represents 2013 if you count years backwards from that dot following the red line you see that the leftmost dot represents 2009 and that the dot before that 2008 is far removed from the 2009 dot and clustered with the dots from before 2008 if you know that the federal debt for 2013 was the highest since world war two you can tell that the highest dot on the graph is the 2013 dot and if you know that 2009 had the big increase in federal deficits and that the deficits have been getting smaller since you can tell that the leftmost point is the 2009 dot i didn t remember those things so i had to look around some i followed the blog s customize link to the fred source page and pushed the start date back to 1970 so we can see all the dots on the first graph and more graph 2 federal debt vertical scale versus federal deficit horizontal scale 1970 2013 easier to see now the 2008 dot is the last in a cluster for some reason the color setting changed when i changed the start year i couldn t duplicate their setting what this graph shows is that before 2009 the federal deficits ranged between zero and six percent of gdp it also shows the budget surplus of the clinton years looks like four years in surplus with a maximum surplus of just over 2 of gdp during that time 1970 to 2008 the federal debt ranged from 30 to about 65 of gdp never over 70 but tending to increase rather than decrease the big massive jump from 2008 to the leftmost dot 2009 pushed debt up over 80 of gdp a slowing economy i mean slowing gdp growth also helped push the dots higher since the fred blog failed to do it i thought i d look at federal debt versus non federal debt graph 3 federal debt horizontal versus non federal debt vertical 1949 2013 the last dot on the right represents 2013 counting backwards you can see the line runs flat back to 2008 no up and down movement no change in non federal debt and large rightward steps showing big increase in the federal debt before 2008 there is a general upward trend the dots climb with regularity from the start then there is a sweep around to the right and back to the left suddenly then it turns a corner and climbs with regularity again toward 2008 counting backwards from the rightmost dot again 2013 it turns out that the dot at the corner represents 2001 the leftward sweep for the few years before 2001 just below it on the graph show the latter clinton years when the federal budget was coming briefly into balance on graph 3 the horizontal scale which shows the size of federal debt runs from zero to something over 10000 the vertical scale which shows the size of non federal debt runs much higher up to 50 000 but here s the thing on the vertical scale the distance from zero to 10 000 is about half an inch maybe less on the horizontal scale the distance from zero to 10 000 is about 3 inches maybe more the two scales are quite different i re sized the graph to make 10 000 vertical about the same size as 10 000 horizontal this should give you a better feel for the relative sizes of federal and non federal debt horizontal distances measure federal debt verticals measure everyone else s debt graph 4 federal horizontal v nonfederal vertical debt similar scaling you don t even believe it do ya posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday july 16 2014 gds vs gdp crude but you get the idea the snowplow hit our mailbox last winter broke the post i went out and got a 2x4 and made a new mailbox post the work was easier than i expected the other day i was looking for something in the garage i found a 3 foot length of 2x4 left over from the mailbox repair i kept it because because you never know it occurs to me that the 2x4 i bought is a model of gross domestic spending the part of the 2x4 i used to make the post well that s the output that s gdp final spending and the 3 foot difference that s sort of like non final spending if i had a customer that paid me for the mailbox job my little metaphor would be more accurate but as it is i was the final customer mine was the final spending my work was for my own satisfaction according to the irs so i got no tax deductions for my spending and my 3 foot leftover piece is just post consumption detritus guess i could pay somebody to haul it to the dump and that would add a little more to gdp what seems to bother most people about gdp is that it doesn t measure happiness i think that s weird what bothers me about gdp is that it ignores trillions of dollars of spending just because we get to subtract those trillions from our taxable income so i invented gross domestic spending gds posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments labels gds tuesday july 15 2014 analogy from friday s notes drove past a construction site on my way to work this morning yesterday there were one lane signs up today all the heavy equipment is off the road in the clearing they made yesterday looks like they will be reconstructing the culvert that lets water flow under the road at that point the culvert the concrete work the clearing of land the redirection of water flow this is infrastructure i suppose but think of it as the institutions we create to shape and form out economy the one thing our institutions cannot change is the fact that water seeks its own level we cannot change the most important thing about our economy posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday july 14 2014 finally we d give up on the ideas that worked in the 1960s most of them but not the idea that we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money because we always want that from yesterday s 4am post what s that you said they wouldn t do that you mean they would never say we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money is that what you think graph 1 dollars of debt per dollar of base money in 1950 there was 12 90 of debt for every dollar of base money in 1970 24 3 a peak came in 1990 at 47 debt per dollar of money this was exponential increase the ratio fell from the peak reaching a low of 39 8 in 1994 then increase resumed the ratio reached 60 9 in 2008 more than 60 of debt per dollar of base money if the interest rate was 2 we were paying 1 20 interest for every 1 of base after 2008 crisis brought the number down but it was the crisis that brought the number down it wasn t policy that did it this is how you know policy was in error we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money that s the problem other than the last few years the only place on the graph that we see the ratio fall is from 1990 to 1994 and after that fall in the ratio the economy was actually good for a few years posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments sunday july 13 2014 soon or late it is ideas not vested interests which are dangerous for good or evil i am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas not indeed immediately but after a certain interval for in the field of economic and political philosophy there are not many who are influenced by new theories after they are twenty five or thirty years of age so that the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply to current events are not likely to be the newest but soon or late it is ideas not vested interests which are dangerous for good or evil j m keynes tgt chapter 24 the power of ideas you would think so wouldn t you reading over this morning s post i thought the one person who needs to read this is representative hensarling of texas figured i d send a link i don t expect him to read it but maybe an underling maybe by chance my idea would click with somebody who could present it to hensarling in a way that makes sense to him what the hell it was easy to find hensarling on the internet i clicked contact and got the step one page i am unable to reply to any email from constituents outside of the district first time i read it i read as far as regrettably i am unable and said dammit and gave up but i went back to the step one page a few minutes later because i really think he needs to consider my idea i read a little more this time i am unable to reply to any email from constituents outside of the district oh i can live with that i don t want a reply from the guy i want to share an idea with his idea people that s all no problem ho hum i dutifully filled in my five digit zip code then looked around till i found my 4 extension and entered that too then i clicked go to next step gee they make it so simple here s what i got next i am only able to accept messages from residents of the 5th district soon or late it is ideas that matter i guess but not today posted by the arthurian at 4 00 pm 2 comments a published formula from the new york times house republicans resume efforts to reduce fed s power by binyamin appelbaum july 10 2014 washington house republicans frustrated by the federal reserve s expansive economic stimulus campaign and its growing role as a financial regulator are renewing their efforts to constrain the central bank the fed would be required to set monetary policy based on a published formula under legislation introduced this week by leading republicans on the financial services committee other bills would eliminate the fed s responsibility to maximize employment or eliminate the fed entirely the bills face uncertain prospects in the house and have no future in the senate while it remains under democratic control but they highlight ideas that republicans are likely to revisit if they win a majority in both houses of congress in the midterm elections we have seen a radical departure from the historic norms of monetary policy conduct representative jeb hensarling of texas who is chairman of the financial services committee said at a hearing on thursday monetary policy is at its best in maintaining stable healthy economic growth when it follows a clear predictable rule or path it s easy to draw a triangle with all sides equal and it is easy to draw a triangle with one square corner but it is impossible to draw one triangle that has all sides equal and one square corner we want to take the top corner of the all sides equal triangle circled and slide it over to the left upper red arrow to make one square corner when we do that the one side of the triangle slowly rotates to the left lower red arrow and the other side of the triangle stretches out and gets longer dashed line but as soon as that side starts to stretch out the triangle is no longer all sides equal and we have failed at our task this sort of thing is obvious to someone like me who makes autocad drawings eight hours a day in autocad you can literally grab that corner of the triangle and move it and you can see what happens when you do so if the boss comes to us and says i want an equilateral right triangle well it just can t be done the boss probably wouldn t come to us with that request but he does come to us with equally impossible requests usually he ll tell us the features he wants in the drawing and when we draw it sometimes there is a combination of features that simply cannot be done i think it s because he s looking at the big picture and not the little details that s okay that s my job the little details but if i tell the boss it can t be done and if i m right of course then it can t be done whether he understands the reason or not if he gets red in the face and tells me just slide that top corner over to the left until the bottom corner is square i can do it because he s no longer telling me to keep all sides equal his required combination of features has changed but he s red in the face and he doesn t want to hear my story to me the economy is like the triangles there are some things that just cannot be done there are other things that can be done but the boss congress is red in the face and doesn t want to hear it just make interest rates obey the taylor rule he says just slide that top point over to the left don t worry about keeping all sides equal monetary policy is at its best in maintaining stable healthy economic growth according to representative hensarling when it follows a clear predictable rule or path well yeah that could work but it won t work if it s the wrong rule or the wrong path suppose the rule is we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money think that rule would work it would work for a while i guess like in the 1960s then it would start to fa...
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