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all sides equal and one square corner we want to take the top corner of the all sides equal triangle circled and slide it over to the left upper red arrow to make one square corner when we do that the one side of the triangle slowly rotates to the left lower red arrow and the other side of the triangle stretches out and gets longer dashed line but as soon as that side starts to stretch out the triangle is no longer all sides equal and we have failed at our task this sort of thing is obvious to someone like me who makes autocad drawings eight hours a day in autocad you can literally grab that corner of the triangle and move it and you can see what happens when you do so if the boss comes to us and says i want an equilateral right triangle well it just can t be done the boss probably wouldn t come to us with that request but he does come to us with equally impossible requests usually he ll tell us the features he wants in the drawing and when we draw it sometimes there is a combination of features that simply cannot be done i think it s because he s looking at the big picture and not the little details that s okay that s my job the little details but if i tell the boss it can t be done and if i m right of course then it can t be done whether he understands the reason or not if he gets red in the face and tells me just slide that top corner over to the left until the bottom corner is square i can do it because he s no longer telling me to keep all sides equal his required combination of features has changed but he s red in the face and he doesn t want to hear my story to me the economy is like the triangles there are some things that just cannot be done there are other things that can be done but the boss congress is red in the face and doesn t want to hear it just make interest rates obey the taylor rule he says just slide that top point over to the left don t worry about keeping all sides equal monetary policy is at its best in maintaining stable healthy economic growth according to representative hensarling when it follows a clear predictable rule or path well yeah that could work but it won t work if it s the wrong rule or the wrong path suppose the rule is we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money think that rule would work it would work for a while i guess like in the 1960s then it would start to fail like in the 1970s finally we d give up on the ideas that worked in the 1960s most of them but not the idea that we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money because we always want that and the changes would change things we discover thirty years later when deleveraging becomes suddenly fashionable what s that you said they wouldn t do that you mean they would never say we always want debt to grow a little faster than the quantity of money is that what you think i think you re wrong graph 1 debt blue and money green compared to gdp red they always want debt to grow a little faster than money oh see the green line on the right there the last half inch of it or less where it s no longer flat and so close to zero that it is almost invisible see it there around 2009 where it starts to go up you ve seen that before everybody showed it to you by itself it looks like this graph 2 base money green the same as on graph 1 everybody showed you this graph and expected you to be shocked and dismayed it is troubling i admit but the increase that looks so troubling on graph 2 is really next to nothing compared to the growth of debt as you can see on graph 1 it was the growth of debt for half a century and more that was the real problem the growth of debt at a more rapid pace than the growth of money for half a century and more the shocking and dismaying increase in money we see on graph 2 was the response to the long period of excessive debt growth the response to the problem created by the growth of debt the increase in money visible on graph 2 was the response if you don t believe me go ask ben bernanke it is graph 2 that bothers representative hensarling of texas he wants the federal reserve to follow a clear predictable rule or path and to keep monetary policy on the straight and narrow hensarling doesn t want the fed making the quantity of money side of the triangle suddenly long he wants to keep it good and short he s not happy with the increase in the green line visible on graph 2 that s fine but by itself his plan won t work to make it work you have to make sure that the quantity of debt side of the triangle also stays good and short really this is just a broadening of the clear predictable rule or path that hensarling wants so there it is in writing the arthurian formula posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 16 comments saturday july 12 2014 unemployment is primarily a problem of macroeconomics john quiggin if search models aren t the right way to think about unemployment what is the right way the simple answer is that unemployment is primarily a problem of macroeconomics not of labor markets if aggregate demand is far below the productive capacity of the economy workers will be unemployed and capital will be idle reminds me of something jw mason said as soon as you begin to think about employment in terms of an input of labor to a production process you ve taken a wrong turn we should not try to give supply based explanations of unemployment i e to show how the allocation of some stock of productive resources by some decision makers could generate unemployment unemployment is strictly a phenomenon of aggregate demand unemployment rises when planned money expenditure falls for a given expected money income unemployment falls when planned money expenditure rises for a given expected money income conditions of production have no direct effect one way or the other so when we see people unemployed we should never ask why does the production of society s desired outputs no longer require their labor input that is a nonsense question that will lead nowhere but confusion instead we should ask why has there been a fall in planned expenditure i would have missed it had it not been pointed out twice but quiggin and mason stand apart from the thinking that produces headlines like drop in u s jobless claims points to healing in labor market at reuters posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments friday july 11 2014 a realist not a fanatic from when ignorance is power at stumbling and mumbling it s quite possible that for some many businesses law breaking has a positive expected value the expected benefits of fraud or phone hacking exceed the expected costs a profit maximizing company should therefore undertake them one way for it to do so is for managers to turn a blind eye so they can maintain plausible deniability and ensure that if the wrongdoing is exposed that there s no smoking gun to connect them to the crime posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday july 10 2014 bad argument drives good argument out of circulation at reddit recently i came across the great american economic growth myth by lance roberts at streettalk live it s a very professional looking site brought to you by sta wealth management the logo says with links to the lance roberts radio show the site even offers website help the growth myth post has lots of good looking graphs and i couldn t wait to read what lance roberts had to say i was okay with it until i got to this part from 1950 1980 nominal gdp grew at an annualized rate of 7 55 this was accomplished with a total credit market debt to gdp ratio of less 150 the critical factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span going from roughly 5 to a peak of nearly 15 there was a couple of reasons for this first lower levels of debt allowed for personal savings to remain robust which fueled productive investment in the economy secondly the economy was focused primarily in production and manufacturing which has a high multiplier effect on the economy this feat of growth also occurred in the face of steadily rising interest rates which peaked with economic expansion in 1980 however beginning in 1980 the shift of the economic makeup from a manufacturing and production based economy to a service and finance economy where there is a low economic multiplier is partially responsible for this transformation the decline in economic output was further exacerbated by increased productivity through technological advances and outsourcing of manufacturing which plagued the economy with steadily decreasing wages unlike the steadily growing economic environment prior to 1980 the post 1980 economy has experienced by a steady decline therefore a statement that the economy has had an average growth of x since 1980 is grossly misleading the trend of the growth is far more important and telling than the average growth rate over time inflation not a word about inflation hey i m sympathetic to what this guy is saying lower levels of debt is definitely the key to getting better growth the focus on production rather than finance is central and lance s last three sentences unlike the steadily growing economic environment prior to 1980 the post 1980 economy has experienced by a steady decline therefore a statement that the economy has had an average growth of x since 1980 is grossly misleading the trend of the growth is far more important and telling than the average growth rate over time contain an element of wisdom that i tried to capture and use in mine of 5 july when you say average it suggests up and down variation but it also implies stability in the value if intermediate consumption is trending upward as a share of gross output it is deceptive to speak of its average value when i was writing mine i didn t even realize where the idea came from that s a nice bit of writing lance roberts i owe ya one but i m surprised that i got that far reading the article the paragraph before the graph is simply horrendous here read it again from 1950 1980 nominal gdp grew at an annualized rate of 7 55 this was accomplished with a total credit market debt to gdp ratio of less 150 the critical factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span going from roughly 5 to a peak of nearly 15 there was a couple of reasons for this as soon as you read about economic growth reaching almost 15 sometime before 1980 you have to think of inflation you absolutely have to but inflation is not noted among the couple of reasons roberts presents in that paragraph nor is it noted in the paragraph that follows the graph in fact there is only one occurrence of the word inflation in the whole article the economy currently requires 2 75 of debt to create 1 of real inflation adjusted economic growth there is no reference to inflation s contribution to the growth numbers anywhere in the article personally i think this outrageous after reading the streettalk live article i went back to reddit to get other readers reactions only one other reader shared my concern cassander wrote that would be an amazing headline chart except for the fact that it is a nominal gdp growth graph that peaks at the height of the 70s inflationary period thus rendering it completely deceptive i picked up on that and replied i love graphs and i approached the linked article with great anticipation but wow was i disappointed the the decline of economic prosperity graph displays the effects of the great inflation and considers it great growth the article doesn t even mention inflation in relation to that graph the article depends on the reader s ignorance to make its argument i went on to express similar disappointment with other graphs in the article cassander got back to me it s depressing really the charts really are extremely well done they even have nice nonstandard coloring someone clearly went to a lot of effort but they re all complete nonsense i couldn t agree more i recreated the nominal gdp yoy growth that roberts shows in his graph and so you could see the difference i added inflation adjusted gdp in red graph 4 rates of growth of inflating blue gdp and inflation adjusted red gdp on lance s graph before 1980 we see a trend of increasingly higher peaks as time goes by my graph shows that too in blue but if you look at the red peaks growth with inflation stripped away the trend is clearly down real economic growth was getting slower before 1980 not faster we definitely put too much emphasis on finance in this economy lance roberts is right about that and we definitely have too much private debt in this economy so much that it hinders growth and yes the inflation that roberts fails to point out did help to keep debt levels low until around 1980 but the growth that he attributes to all those things that i agree with the growth he points to explicitly nearly 15 annual growth must be attributed to inflation it pains me to say it because i agree with so much of what he says posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments wednesday july 9 2014 turn off your television sets and turn on your speakers posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday july 8 2014 finding philippon s fineff pdf i found it sort of here better than nothing here s figure 1 here it is as a pdf from ssrn free thanks guys now i have to go and backfill a few of my posts with a new copy of the figure 1 graph when i wrote those posts i trusted foolishly that phillippon s paper would always be available at stern where i first found it it ain t ps at ssrn the pdf filename is ssrn id1972808 edit 18 may 2017 but maybe the graph i want is philippon s figure 7 from that pdf graph 2 from has the u s finance industry become less efficient posted by the arthurian at 10 00 pm 0 comments gross domestic spending documentation this post provides links to two excel files and eleven short pdfs the gds data series file is outputs the result of my industry the business population file is inputs the source data that i used the gds data series xls file is an excel file generated by openoffice calc the file contains one sheet the first two columns of the sheet contain the year and gds values columns farther to the right document the calculations used to come up with the numbers the business population xls spreadsheet is an excel file generated by openoffice calc the file contains two sheets the data entry sheet lists the source files and data values obtained from them columns further to the right are notes on units and on the column headers which evolved a bit over the years note that there is some duplication of data on this sheet as i was comparing the values provided by newer and older sources at the overlaps this duplication is eliminated from the other sheet in the file the other sheet in this file is named arts data series this sheet lists the source file the year and number receipts and net profit for total business enterprises that is for sole proprietorships partnerships and corporations combined for 1959 through 2008 i...
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