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o a greater degree than ever before thanks to three years of johnson and six weeks of his successor and raising growth is hard work there isn t one simple trick read my nesta blog growth isn t just unleashed any more see my other blog and read everything by dieter vollrath there is just too much already there 4 5tn of capital 33m workers a vast amount of inertia a gradual shift towards more services baumol s cost disease your policy ideas are small in comparison you need frankly amazing estimates for how much a tax cut or capital increase can raise production to believe otherwise the risk is that this level of sensible conservativism leads to fatalism if every government has to confront this triangle of crapness then what is the point of voting but to escape it you need something better than a vacuous ted lasso theory of change in which you can take over an establishment no matter how rubbish and transform its performance simply through a change in the management and some positive thinking so here are a few reasons i think the labour inheritance might end up being better than currently feared in no particular order that there is definitely a negative feedback loop within the triangle points unavoidably to there being a positive one as well improve the economy make public services more efficient sort out the public finances and you can get a virtuous circle going too the miracle of compounding too many people look at this chart and treat it as our future but what i see is how relatively small starting conditions build over time if nothing at all is done about them it suggests that we might end up with a debt gdp ratio of 150 in 2050 in about 25 budgets time but that many budgets ago the world economy was beginning to do so well that alan greenspan fretted before congress about the prospect of endless fiscal surpluses oh woe small improvements now or avoiding mistakes like those greenspan era tax cuts make a huge difference focus on now not 2073 the inflation problem is going to resolve itself and not necessarily in a bad way as tim points out sometimes it serves to boost revenues and lighten the deficit and one of the reasons that inflation has proven stubborn is that the widely predicted uk recession has still not arrived for the next few months we may enjoy something of a goldilocks period falling producer prices the beginning of some real wage increases a renewed sense that interest rates are near or at their peak furthermore the shift finally out of a zero interest rate world isn t all bad either sure it is worse for the indebted government but negative real rates were a miserable signal for the economy pension schemes will be more solvent now above all it may be easier to eke out productivity gains in an economy closer to running hot than one bumping along in deflationary conditions trying to raise productivity in a cold economy is much harder like trying to float a boat off the rocks when the tide is low for individuals and businesses the incentive to do it isn t there as much when conditions are slack what motivates investment training innovation and all those productivity boosting good things is the press of business the actual experience of not having enough capacity to serve what is coming through your door we have finally stumbled upon how to run the economy hot ish the pessimism about public sector reform is a bit overdone i can see why the economist s bagehot columnist goes after the reform fairy in politician speak it has supplanted efficiencies as the magic balancing item there is no doubt that some key reforms need upfront investment such as spending more on the planning system and nhs capital and some injustices just demand money like the two child benefits limit but having reviewed a nice book about public sector reforms a couple of years ago how should a government be the new levers of state power by jaideep prabhu i refuse to believe we have exhausted all possibilities the excellent dutch buurtzorg social care system for example is simply a better way of arranging care it does not have to cost more countries like vietnam manage to improve their education system without oodles of money so has the uk it is also too glib to conclude that just because reeves is trying to sound as close to hunt as possible there are going to be no fiscal recourses available there are tax breaks and allowances for business riddled through our fiscal system look at the oecd examination that amount to quite a few billions and the business bungs are small compared to those aimed at individuals see these figures on this topic i also subscribe to a little ted lasso style thinking simply removing the pressure of the conservative backbenchers with their constant clamour for unfunded tax cuts is a fiscal plus it hasn t generated extra growth or more sustainable public finances fundamentally there is an optimistic way of responding to how badly the uk has done this last fifteen years we have fallen ever further away from the productivity frontier that is a huge pity but it also means growing is less about performing achingly high tech best in class actions you just need to catch up to what is possible elsewhere don t have such a centralized government don t have such a sclerotic planning system stick to the same investment incentives for more than a year at a time improve your deal with europe you don t need to host the world s first quantum computer or fusion reactor though by all means go for it and significant chunks of the uk are pretty close to the frontier already see tyler cowen on south england so there is nothing fundamentally prosperity repelling about the uk s laws and customs we just need the whole country to be closer to that level i feel weird projecting any kind of optimism about this discombobulated country of ours brexit in particular still has the capacity to depress me read peter foster on the negative ratchet it has put between us and the eu i never stop worrying about ukraine but if we have learned anything about the last 15 years it is that the future course is never set sometimes things can get better posted by freethinkingeconomist july 21 2023 july 21 2023 posted in uncategorized 2 comments on ted lasso versus the triangle of crapness maybe europe is winning after all today when i should have been enjoying the non monetary benefits of wimbledon common i was instead getting depressed by the economist which i listen to as i walk it isn t difficult to be depressed the world is full of shitty news but the particular theme that got me this week was the way europe had regulated itself into american vassalage thanks to a longstanding habit of stifling its companies with rules red tape and risk aversion the old continent is now utterly reliant on the new for its high end digital services its energy even its payment systems the uk and europeans are also terribly hobbled by the fragmentation and conservatism of its defence procurement failing to learn the obvious and very near lessons of ukraine terrifyingly the uk is so far from being to operate a really independent nuclear deterrent that the economist felt the need to do the maths i don t have any analytical beef with all this even if you don t think the point of the economy is to generate tech billionaires the continuous failure of european companies to achieve global flight speed is surely indicative of something important and with important consequences not least if our supposed ally starts to develop gangster ish tendencies as feared in the vassalage piece i would really like this moment of crisis to generate a strong agile response the most warlike continent in history ought to be able to defend itself with room to spare on its own resources but i also think euro gloom overlooks the benefits of a better regulated society being less agile capitalist brutal and laissez faire is meant to achieve something anyone who has been involved in the process of regulation in the uk is aware of the impact assessment which tots up the costs of what is being called for against benefits no doubt the maths veers from speculative to dodgy but they capture the principle these things are being done for a reason if you only weigh up the time managers spend checking chemicals are safe building materials reliable or capital sufficient you miss the whole asset side of the leger less death and disaster life has definitely become more complicated how on earth can it be that it would take 17 years to build a trident replacement when the original bomb took so much less but there are reasons and europe s more regulated society generates benefits and you can quantify them i spent too much of that lovely walk in wimbledon querying on gemini the costs that europe would be facing were it to suffer as badly as the usa in various obvious categories death from guns tens of thousands a year drug overdoses 100 000 traffic accidents 28 000 in birth 9000 healthcare costs several thousand dollars a citizen loss of leisure to a driving and b not having as much holiday which comes to nearly 200 hours a year stuck in a car much less time stuck to a sun lounger other social ills like higher child poverty more money wasted on keeping 2m people in jail the original numbers that were returned were staggering and needed scrutiny but i also realised that i had not taken into account inequality how we should be measuring a society s success by its median not its mean citizen a lucky 1 having unbelievably high levels of consumption ought not to weigh in our calculations much in any case when i got back i asked claude to scrutinize and render more conservative all the calculuations taking down the value of a life saved from 5m and an hour wasted in a car for example but the results are still clear see them in the table at the bottom and almost unavoidable when you have two similar countries and one of them produces around 200 000 more horrible avoidable deaths is more unequal keeps its people a little less healthy for a vastly higher bill leaves them stuck in cars for hours and with less holiday at the end well then the superficial gap in gdp per person can vanish the best things in life are free you can walk in the park read shakespeare and listen to beethoven for nothing what matters is having health and time two final points first all of this depends on which game of civilisation you think you re playing if the object is world domination then inequality lack of freedom and military capability are the thing call it the russian strategy long lived contented people less so and we don t necessarily get to choose measured gdp is highly state contingent the ability to generate luxury goods and happy pensioners is not all that pertinent when war needs suddenly rise up the agenda does anyone really think italy s gdp is bigger than russia s if the point of it was creating defence goods europe should remain worried and rattled by the behaviour of its supposed ally and thinking harder about tilting the balance from butter to guns strategic autonomy and the right not to be bossed around by random blowhards from a foreign country s political establishment are valued goods not included in my table below second however let us not be too zero sum about it the sort of regulatory flexibility and market creation that europe needs to get better at need not stop its citizens enjoying a good life you have have brilliant pollution free cities full of people biking between beaches theatres galleries and cafes and also a well equipped military world leading science base and valuable companies i give europe a better chance of raising its economic game than the us of fixing its healthcare or gun laws there is no reason to be gloomy a government review in 2013 found that it would take 17 years to field a new trident warhead and 24 years for a cruise missile warhead actually i think this figure may reflect higher infant mortality so not in birth posted by freethinkingeconomist april 26 2026 april 26 2026 posted in uncategorized tags europe politics quality of life usa war 2 comments on maybe europe is winning after all the grifto matic you may already be aware of the grifting phenomenon known as crypto treasury companies described in the link as businesses that hold substantial reserves of cryptocurrencies most often bitcoin as core balance sheet assets it appears to work this way suckers inc who may or may not have had a real business going on but certainly have a share price issue equity and use the money raised to buy say bitcoin to all extents and purposes they are just a pot of virtual money if the no arbitrage condition held there would be nothing of interest here if a company raised 1bn and just sat there with it its shares should collectively be worth 1bn right if there were 10million shares they should each trade for 100 however for reasons that passeth all understanding these weird ctcs went through a phase of trading at a massive premium to the value of their crypto shares of suckers inc would be collectively worth say 15bn when the bitcoin on its balance sheet would be worth only 10bn in other words there is an arbitrage and when there is an arbitrage there is an advantageous trade to be done an obvious one suckers inc would issue equity at that weirdly high price and use it to buy more bitcoin indeed if the management s job is maximize shareholder value then it has an obligation to do so for existing equity holders the fact of new equity holders offering to pay 50 over the market value it makes those existing holders richer to let them do so and more normally the same is true in reverse if a company is worth 10bn for whatever reason and its shares are trading as if it is worth just 8bn it would make sense to take over the whole company realise that 10bn of value and make a profit a great deal of corporate activity is premised on exactly that line of thinking but put all this together and you appear to have a machine that automatically enriches the insiders at the expense of the new outsiders all you need is to program the company with the instruction to issue shares buy crypto when there s a premium and do the reverse when there s a discount and it is some kind of automatic money maker for the original insiders if a premium develops grows then subsides the whole event will serve as a giant machine for taking money from the outside suckers and handing it to the insiders i decided to model this the company starts off with the premium at zero and the founder keeping 5 50 shares himself selling the other 95 to raise money to buy bitcoin that is originally at 20 000 a premium develops as the price of bitcoin itself rises and every month that there is a premium the company issues 50 more shares buys bitcoin with it i choose to imagine the premium rising and falling with the bitcoin price because while an utterly ridiculous phenomenon it makes sense to imagine it behaves in synch with crypto enthusiasm we get an excited bubb...
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