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5 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 the schwartz previously on the new arthurian blog what if important stuff fractions the three little graphs no that s not true endogenous drivel the wrong war all in fun and while we re on the subject balancing act krugman again negative feedback september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday october 31 2009 the schwartz the name anna schwartz should ring a bell she wrote a very great book which i never read with milton friedman who was a very great man schwartz has some thoughts on the money supply here i have just a few remarks read more posted by the arthurian at 2 43 pm 2 comments labels cost push inflation demand pull inflation tuesday october 27 2009 previously on the new arthurian blog last time we looked at a typical money supply relative to output graph then i drew the graph again with the deflator inverted inverting the deflator flipped the blue line the line moved with the deflator i said this shows that the deflator the correction to output is the reason the typical graph mimics the cpi so closely people say it is the relation between money and output that mimics the cpi but when i inverted the deflator the blue line inverted in other words the line shows what the deflator is doing not what money relative to output is doing money and output play an insignificant role in the graph despite what people say what would happen if we left the deflator alone and flipped money and output read more posted by the arthurian at 9 01 pm 0 comments labels math problems monday october 26 2009 what if messin with the numbers okay let s do a typical money supply relative to output graph we take the gdp as it comes purchased at actual prices and total it up that s nominal output then we divide the gdp number by the price level to deflate the gdp down to what it would have been if there was no inflation this calculation gives us real output which is often just called output next we take the quantity of money m2 and divide it by the real output number this gives us the famous money supply relative to output then we index this number figure the average value for the whole series and divide each number in the series by the average the new values we get are the ones we will display on a graph we also grab the cpi which shows the level of prices and we index this series of numbers just as we indexed our money supply relative to output we index both sets of numbers as milton friedman said to make the two series comparable read more posted by the arthurian at 9 42 pm 0 comments labels math problems important stuff important to me anyhow the secret economist recently posted an evaluation of the taylor rule what s the taylor rule according to the wik the taylor rule stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate when inflation and economic growth wander from their targets long story short the secret economist became suspicious of the good match between the taylor numbers and the federal funds interest rate and decided to investigate the bold conclusion the taylor rule fits because it is an identity now wikipedia says an identity is an equality that remains true regardless of the values of any variables that appear within it so se s conclusion is that the taylor calculation will always give a good match to the interest rate suspicions justified but as arlo guthrie said that s not what i came to tell you about read more posted by the arthurian at 6 24 am 0 comments labels math problems saturday october 24 2009 fractions to divide by a fraction invert and multiply suppose we have a calculation like but we know that is a fraction and that in order to understand our calculation we can replace the in the calculation with the thing it equals thus it is evident now that in our calculation we are dividing by a fraction to divide by a fraction use the rule they teach in elementary school invert and multiply inverting the fraction gives us now multiply by the inverted fraction in this form our calculation is simpler because there is only one division it is okay to remove the parentheses and to rearrange terms we can add parentheses to show we do the division first all of this is valid arithmetic our new formula will produce the same result as our original calculation is the quantity of money is real output is output in actual prices is the price level the deflator in its final version our calculation divides the quantity of money by output in actual prices and multiplies the result by the price level the calculation we started with was used by milton friedman in money mischief to produce all those graphs that show how money relative to output follows the same trend line as prices his numbers follow the price trend because he multiplies by the price level you can mimic the price trend in many ways you don t have to use the quantity of money and output you can use any number you want pretty much just multiply by the price level and your answer takes on the shape of the price trend posted by the arthurian at 7 05 am 1 comments labels math problems friday october 23 2009 the three little graphs wow this was easy to do below is a google docs spreadsheet it contains three pages each page has calculations and a graph the graphs are off to the right near the top but you won t see them unless you go looking this post is mostly in the nature of a test probably not much here of interest this is the spreadsheet used to develop graphs for my comments at the secret economist posted by the arthurian at 6 04 am 1 comments labels math problems thursday october 22 2009 no that s not true mankiw again from chapter 2 of macroeconomics the goal of gdp is to summarize in a single number the dollar value of economic activity in a given period of time read more posted by the arthurian at 3 40 am 3 comments labels def economic activity def gdp final spending i couldn t sleep iceberg endogenous drivel and other big words looking thru n gregory mankiw s macroeconomics fourth edition 2000 he writes models have two kinds of variables endogenous variables and exogenous variables ooh i need this i don t know these big words i m interested in the economics but the big words are a problem for someone of little memory the big words are so troubling that i don t even notice mankiw uses the word variables three times in that sentence endogenous variables are those variables that a model tries to explain exogenous variables are those variables that a model takes as given the purpose of a model is to show how the exogenous variables affect the endogenous variables okay this is good i m looking at it like computer programming send some values to a function and get a return value the values i send are exogenous the return value calculated by the function based on the values i send is endogenous i get it mankiw continues in other words as figure 1 4 illustrates exogenous variables come from outside the model and serve as the model s input whereas endogenous variables are determined inside the model and are the model s output just like a function in c arguments come from outside the function and serve as the function s input while return values are determined inside the function and are the function s output okay arguments or parameters maybe i m not always clear on the big words anyway i wanna see his figure 1 4 read more posted by the arthurian at 2 37 am 0 comments labels i couldn t sleep saturday october 17 2009 the wrong war back in the early 1990s i was all gung ho for milton friedman prices go up because the quantity of money goes up always and everywhere amen and then i got a new job with a small steel warehouse the counter man wesley his name was once said something i never forgot he said we have to raise our prices because our costs are going up this wasn t milton friedman s explanation it was something else as i look back now it is clear to me that always and everywhere is not the same as only friedman said prices go up when the quantity of money goes up always and everywhere he didn t say that was the only reason prices go up when you raise your prices because your customers have too much money your good profit gets better when you raise your prices because you have to it s because your profit is being squeezed these two worlds are totally unlike one another milton friedman explained demand pull inflation wesley introduced me to cost push everybody today is familiar with wesley s problem our costs are going up health care costs gasoline and heating oil candy bars and coffee costs are going up and it s tough to make ends meet we have met the enemy and it is cost push inflation read more posted by the arthurian at 12 24 pm 3 comments labels cost push inflation demand pull inflation all in fun it s all fun and games until somebody gets hurt from krugman of 15 october 09 one thing that s hard to convey is how boring business seemed in the 1960s and 1970s i ve got just one word for you plastics but even a decade later it was the guys who went off to investment banks who were buying the third homes and it wasn t just the money business stopped being so boring and was even getting to be fun for some people i thought that was an interesting observation what else was happening at that time read more posted by the arthurian at 8 26 am 0 comments labels eroc wednesday october 14 2009 and while we re on the subject pandering to bad arithmetic the problems of our economy are often attributed to excessive government spending i have all kinds of problems with that but suppose it is true if excessive government spending is the cause of our economic problems then a lessening of the excess should reduce our economic troubles right read more posted by the arthurian at 6 20 am 1 comments labels federal spending monday october 12 2009 balancing act was it worth it bush the elder went into iraq with 500 000 troops bush the younger couldn t muster 200 000 in the intervening years bill clinton balanced the budget he did it by cutting the military read more posted by the arthurian at 6 39 am 2 comments labels military spending waste fraud abuse wednesday october 7 2009 krugman again i m not picking on him honest from pk s post of 7 october 09 everyone agrees that this is a stopgap and we want to get the fed out of the business of private lending over time but here s my question why does it have to be a return to shadow banking the banks don t need to sell securitized debt to make loans they could start lending out of all those excess reserves they currently hold or to put it differently by the numbers there s no obvious reason we shouldn t be seeking a return to traditional banking with banks making and holding loans as the way to restart credit markets yet the assumption at the fed seems to be that this isn t an option that the only way to go is back to the securitized debt market of the years just before the crisis why are we still convinced that securitization is a...
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