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affney mason gaffney the canal boom the spice of life phases of the business cycle getting the story straight comparative economic policy outcomes go billy disputations ebooks adelaide methods versus premisses human nature toward clarity from the standup economist steve keen exactly right a prediction yes and you find the same problem in private debt nutting could be finer a word from john kenneth galbraith financial business debt business debt household debt gross federal debt failures and tcmdo growth failures u k prices since 1209 measuringworth reductions in the growth of private debt have bee it also explains why the fiscal multiplier is low fdr and the hodgepodge story their way of thinking bots 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday january 31 2015 potential output varies with demand vernengo i think that there is significant evidence for the notion that potential output varies with demand posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday january 30 2015 what vernengo said if i was talking i d be tripping over my tongue but i m writing writing things out of sequence because i can t stop to organize my thoughts i have discovered matias vernengo discovered what fascinates him productivity and demand fascinates me too matias vernengo says technological determinism is widespread the solow model basically suggests that it is technological progress measured incorrectly as total factor productivity tfp that drives growth the same is true of schumpeterian models what is not discussed in most analyses of the technological determinism by conventional and more than a few heterodox authors is the role of demand in creating the conditions for technological change in that case technological change is not the cause of growth but the result as in adam smith s story it is the extent of the market demand that limits the division of labor productivity in modern parlance the idea is known as the kaldor verdoorn law sure enough vernengo says a demand driven story has space for the sort of external supply side effects that allow technology and innovations to thrive a demand driven story does not imply that supply side factors are irrelevant they are simply not the prime movers i think he s onto something that paragraph about technological change got me going reminded me of arnold j toynbee regarding the abandonment of the irrigation system in the tigris euphrates basin toynbee wrote this lapse in a matter of technique was in fact not the cause but the consequence of a decline in population and prosperity in other words the lapse was due to a lack of demand regarding the abandonment of roman roads toynbee wrote when a civilization is in decline it sometimes happens that a particular technique that has been both feasible and profitable during the growth stage now begins to encounter social obstacles and to yield diminishing economic returns if it becomes patently unremunerative it may be deliberately abandoned an obvious case in point is the abandonment of the roman roads in western europe matias vernengo says demand drives technology arnold j toynbee says the lack of demand drives the decline of technology these are two expressions of one thought posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels cycle of civilization verdoorn thursday january 29 2015 progress org interview with mason gaffney from 2007 interview with mason gaffney on corruption of economics excerpts the progress report in your latest book the corruption of economics you seem to be exposing an amazingly deep and long standing scandal around the study of economics within the american education system sum it up for us how why and by whom do you think the teaching of economics in america has been corrupted mason gaffney generically it goes back thousands of years every system that divides mankind into rentiers and proles requires a rationale those with leisure have time and resources to provide it sometimes directly but usually through hired guns the need became more acute in the usa during and after the progressive era with its development of the secret ballot and direct democracy voters could no longer be bought or intimidated directly they had to be brainwashed the device used was to replace the older classical political economy quesnay adam smith ricardo mill and henry george with neo classical economics which blurred all distinctions between producers and rentiers tpr they were paid to keep quiet about the land question mg no more than anyone else they lived in a society dominated by landowners adam smith spent his life on the payroll of the duke of buccleuch as tutor for his grace s son landowners were so very secure some of them could let their house intellectuals tweak their noses with radical ideas probably found it entertaining it was later after universal manhood suffrage that the landowners got nasty and conspiratorial and defensive tpr do you believe this purchasing of economic theory still going on today and if so what well known economists do you suspect of being involved with it mg it pervades the culture of the profession most members are looking for grants and promotions to put frosting on their cake they call it responding to the incentive structure giggle nervously and shuffle the blame onto the system it s partly a matter of coopting people by dangling money before them and partly a matter of selecting and supporting those whose ideas are already more simpatico to the major grantors it s hard to tell the difference so it s hard to say who s been corrupted and who corrupted himself at an early age tpr how can my readers find out if what you re saying is really true name the most widely used economics textbooks in american universities right now and what they teach that is an obvious lie for the benefit of landed interests mg i no longer use textbooks much paul samuelson robert solow peter mieszkowski theodore schultz and edwin mills for example casually pronounce that land rent is only 5 or so of total income so a single land tax could not support government as we know it they offer no support for this except to echo each other they simply ignore the few careful studies of the matter as by michael hudson allen manvel myself and steven cord that show much higher figures tpr how do you like our chances professor do you think earth is going to be a loser planet or will the good guys somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat mg a bit of each keep hassling and things will be a bit better than if you gave up again i left a lot out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday january 28 2015 mason gaffney the canal boom google led me to the u s canal boom and bust 1820 1842 notes by mason gaffney from may 1993 updated 2009 the canal boom which crested in 1836 37 was one of several in u s history forming roughly an 18 year cycle the slump when it came was synchronized nationwide the ensuing slump and crash even more so indeed the cycle was worldwide although the data included herein is only for the u s after the manic peak of 1836 depression was communicated everywhere through some universal medium the synchronization was remarkable considering this was before even the telegraph this synchronizing medium was the capital market which turns booms on and off by advancing or denying funds after 1836 momentum carried some works forward regardless of crashing demand and tight funds by 1842 most building had ground to a halt following the trough of 1842 production and employment slowly picked up new steam railroads were the new magic aided along by federal land grants after 1850 before long it all built up to a new peak and crash in 1857 i left a lot out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday january 27 2015 the spice of life maynard writes nevertheless circumstances can develop in which even a large increase in the quantity of money may exert a comparatively small influence on the rate of interest for a large increase in the quantity of money may cause so much uncertainty about the future that liquidity preferences due to the precautionary motive may be strengthened whilst opinion about the future of the rate of interest may be so unanimous that a small change in present rates may cause a mass movement into cash it is interesting that the stability of the system and its sensitiveness to changes in the quantity of money should be so dependent on the existence of a variety of opinion about what is uncertain best of all that we should know the future but if not then if we are to control the activity of the economic system by changing the quantity of money it is important that opinions should differ posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday january 26 2015 phases of the business cycle something i found while looking through my old notes on the schumpeter essay in readings in business cycle theory from a file i wrote or last edited back in 1996 schumpeter writing in 1935 described a cycle in four phases we speak today of four phases as well but they are not the same today we speak of a period of growth a peak a period of recession and a trough pronounced to rhyme with cow or low point schumpeter by way of contrast emphasized the importance of the smoothed trend line about which the cycle varied he described a period of prosperity followed by a period of recession both above the trend line then depression as the decline continued below the trend line and finally a period of revival as the economy climbed back toward its trend line for schumpeter all four phases are time periods with duration for us today two of the phases have duration and two are turning points for schumpeter the cycle is like a sine wave beginning and ending at its average value for us the cycle is measured peak to peak like a cosine wave or trough to trough bottom to bottom posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday january 25 2015 getting the story straight the marxists internet archive long my source when quoting keynes also offers geoffrey pilling s the crisis of keynesian economics i just looked at it for the first time i didn t read much but this stood out right away writing of the decade following the end of the war j k galbraith said within a decade after 1945 the belief that the modern economy was subject to a deficiency in demand and that offsetting...
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