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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2018;
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the (110), and (50), that (38), och (34), not (34), aug (31), 2018 (28), may (26), are (21), with (20), #comments (18), you (17), att (17), mar (16), apr (16), jun (16), jan (16), posted (16), jul (15), sep (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), som (15), this (14), lönebildning (14), arbetslöshet (14), det (14), den (13), new (13), from (13), lars (12), 2012 (12), 2013 (12), 2014 (12), 2015 (12), 2016 (12), 2017 (12), 2019 (12), 2020 (12), 2021 (12), 2022 (12), 2023 (12), 2024 (12), 2025 (12), share (12), opens (12), window (12), randomization (12), have (11), causal (11), för (11), man (11), 2011 (10), economics (10), for (10), about (10), real (10), off (10), but (9), models (9), when (9), med (9), only (8), what (8), does (8), bluesky (8), facebook (8), which (8), vad (8), die (8), other (7), science (7), made (7), often (7), one (7), effect (7), rational (7), expectations (7), view (6), 2026 (6), econometrics (6), being (6), model (6), economic (6), its (6), can (6), world 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inte väljer de bäst anpassade läromedlen och undervisningsmetoderna utan istället prioriterar de som är billigare även om konkurrens om eleverna har vissa positiva effekter finns det också anledning att ifrågasätta om regelverket verkligen förmår hantera de negativa konsekvenser som konkurrensen om eleverna kan ge upphov till och om stark konkurrens är förenlig med skolans myndighetsroll när man på 1990 talet påbörjade systemskiftet inom välfärdssektorn anfördes ofta som argument för privatiseringarna att man skulle slippa den byråkratiska logikens kostnader i form av regelverk kontroller och uppföljningar konkurrensen denna marknadsfundamentalismens panacé skulle göra driften effektivare och höja verksamheternas kvalitet marknadslogiken skulle tvinga bort de byråkratiska och tungrodda offentliga verksamheterna och kvar skulle bara finnas de bra företagen som valfriheten möjliggjort när den panglossianska privatiseringsvåtdrömmen visar sig vara en mardröm tror tyvärr våra politiker att just det som man ville bli av med regelverk och byråkratisk tillsyn och kontroll skulle vara lösningen man tar sig för pannan och det av många skäl för ska man genomföra de åtgärdspaket som förs fram undrar man ju hur det går med den där effektivitetsvinsten kontroller uppdragsspecifikationer inspektioner m m kostar ju pengar och hur mycket överskott blir det då av privatiseringarna när dessa kostnader också ska räknas hem i kostnads intäktsanalysen och hur mycket värd är den där valfriheten när vi ser hur den gång på gång bara resulterar i verksamhet där vinst genereras genom kostnadsnedskärningar och sänkt kvalitet beslutet att släppa in vinstdrivande företag i välfärdssektorn har varit ett dyrköpt misstag i chile satte man på skolområdet stopp för detta för ett par år sedan sverige är nu det enda land i världen som accepterar vinstintresse i skattefinansierade skolor men kan chile rätta till misstag så borde vi också kunna grundfrågan är inte om skattefinansierade privata företag ska få göra vinstuttag eller om det krävs hårdare tag i form av kontroll och inspektion grundfrågan är om det är marknadens och privatiseringarnas logik som ska styra våra välfärdsinrättningar eller om det ska ske via demokratins och politikens logik grundfrågan handlar om den gemensamma välfärdssektorn ska styras av demokrati och politik eller av marknaden share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky after the crisis business as usual 31 aug 2018 at 10 15 posted in economics comments off on after the crisis business as usual in contrast to the experience of the great depression which led to the emergence and acceptance of novel theoretical concepts on a large scale the financial crisis and its consequences have by and large been rationalized with reference to existing theoretical concepts although we do observe a slight shift away from the idea that financial markets are efficient by default and prices only follow random walks the basic conceptualization of financial markets as being efficient and equilibrating in principle seems unquestioned on the contrary the rising prominence of the concept of liquidity understood as the availability of funds to absorb financial assets to be sold in the aftermath of the crisis indicates that the financial crisis is seen by economists as a major external shock unforeseen because of the limits imposed on rational behavior by asymmetric information and not as something intrinsic to the economic process similarly our analysis of the reception of major crisis related books shows an only temporary increase of interest in classic contributions dealing with financial and economic instability which was even weaker for more distinguished journals these observations signify a key difference in terms of the lessons learned from past crises when compared to the great depression which gave rise to a broad consensus that capitalist economies are not self sustaining a consensus that eventually helped to forge the mixed economies dominating the richer parts of the planet e aigler m aistleitner f glötzl j kapeller when did you last hear an economist say something like this 30 aug 2018 at 22 22 posted in economics 1 comment if the observations of the red shift in the spectra of massive stars don t come out quantitatively in accordance with the principles of general relativity then my theory will be dust and ashes albert einstein 1920 the gambler s ruin wonkish 30 aug 2018 at 16 22 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on the gambler s ruin wonkish in case you re curious what happens if you start out with 25 but we change the probabilities from 0 50 0 50 into e g 0 49 0 51 you can check this out easily with e g gretl matrix b 1 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 49 0 0 0 51 0 0 49 0 0 0 1 matrix v25 0 1 0 0 matrix x v25 b 50 x which gives x 0 68 0 00 0 00 0 32 vad har vi för glädje av ekonomer 30 aug 2018 at 14 29 posted in varia comments off on vad har vi för glädje av ekonomer die risikogesellschaft 30 aug 2018 at 13 06 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on die risikogesellschaft schlechte wissenschaft 30 aug 2018 at 08 33 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on schlechte wissenschaft wenn wissenschaftler etwas herausgefunden haben wann kann man sich auch tatsächlich darauf verlassen eine antwort lautet wenn fachkollegen die studie überprüft haben eine andere wenn sie in einer renommierten fachzeitschrift veröffentlicht wurde doch manchmal reicht auch beides zusammen nicht aus wie forscher jetzt gezeigt haben und zwar auf die beste und aufwendigste art sie haben die zugrundeliegenden experimente wiederholt und geschaut ob noch einmal dasselbe dabei herauskommt es ging um 21 sozialwissenschaftliche studien aus den journalen nature und science mehr renommee geht nicht und natürlich werden dort eingereichte arbeiten von experten geprüft peer review trotzdem kam in fast 40 prozent der fälle nicht noch einmal dasselbe heraus sondern meistens gar nichts selbst wenn bei wiederholung der experimente ähnliche effekte auftraten waren diese merklich kleiner als im original durchschnittlich nur dreiviertel so groß wenn man die nicht replizierbaren studien einrechnet schrumpft der durchschnittliche effekt aller wiederholungen sogar auf die hälfte deshalb sagt forschungskritiker john ioannidis wenn man einen artikel über ein sozialwissenschaftliches experiment in nature oder science liest muss man den effekt gleich halbieren die zeit vem fan äger vad 29 aug 2018 at 20 05 posted in varia comments off on vem fan äger vad tillägnad maggan i horn min och barnens östgötska kioskfavorit jimmie åkesson bekräftar vad vi länge anat 29 aug 2018 at 15 59 posted in politics society comments off on jimmie åkesson bekräftar vad vi länge anat när jimmie åkesson tidigare idag intervjuades av p3 s morgonpasset inledde han med att såga hela kanalen hade jag varit chef här hade jag lagt ner p3 direkt jag tycker det är vänsterliberal smörja sade åkesson att p3 är en skitkanal kan nog många av oss hålla med om en massa tyckmyckentrutade ordbajsare som mellan ordkaskader spelar skvalmusik att detta skulle vara vänsterliberalt är nog dock lite svårare att svälja men intervjun var intressant så tillvida att den bekräftade vad vi länge anat åkesson är i likhet med med den amerikanske fake news presidenten donald trump beredd att använd politisk makt för att likt diktatorer stänga ner medier han inte gillar påminner faktikt också lite grand om vad en tysk snubbe höll på med på 1930 talet och snart är det val the calibration hoax 29 aug 2018 at 08 34 posted in economics 4 comments there are many kinds of useless economics held in high regard within mainstream economics establishment today few if any are less deserved than the macroeconomic theory method mostly connected with nobel laureates finn kydland robert lucas edward prescott and thomas sargent called calibration in physics it may possibly not be straining credulity too much to model processes as ergodic where time and history do not really matter but in social and historical sciences it is obviously ridiculous if societies and economies were ergodic worlds why do econometricians fervently discuss things such as structural breaks and regime shifts that they do is an indication of the unrealisticness of treating open systems as analyzable with ergodic concepts the future is not reducible to a known set of prospects it is not like sitting at the roulette table and calculating what the future outcomes of spinning the wheel will be reading sargent and other calibrationists one comes to think of robert clower s apt remark that much economics is so far removed from anything that remotely resembles the real world that it s often difficult for economists to take their own subject seriously instead of just assuming calibration and rational expectations to be right one ought to confront the hypothesis with the available evidence it is not enough to construct models anyone can construct models to be seriously interesting models have to come with an aim they have to have an intended use if the intention of calibration and rational expectations is to help us explain real economies it has to be evaluated from that perspective a model or hypothesis without a specific applicability is not really deserving of our interest to say as edward prescott that one can only test if some theory whether it incorporates rational expectations or for that matter irrational expectations is or is not consistent with observations is not enough without strong evidence all kinds of absurd claims and nonsense may pretend to be science we have to demand more of a justification than this rather watered down version of anything goes when it comes to rationality postulates if one proposes rational expectations one also has to support its underlying assumptions none is given which makes it rather puzzling how rational expectations has become the standard modelling assumption made in much of modern macroeconomics perhaps the reason is as paul krugman has it that economists often mistake beauty clad in impressive looking mathematics for truth but i think prescott s view is also the reason why calibration economists are not particularly interested in empirical examinations of how real choices and decisions are made in real economies in the hands of lucas prescott and sargent rational expectations has been transformed from an in principle testable hypothesis to an irrefutable proposition irrefutable propositions may be comfortable like religious convictions or ideological dogmas but it is not science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky when you are old personal 28 aug 2018 at 19 45 posted in varia 1 comment deutschland ungleichland 28 aug 2018 at 17 05 posted in politics society comments off on deutschland ungleichland some common misunderstandings about randomization 28 aug 2018 at 14 22 posted in statistics econometrics comments off on some common misunderstandings about randomization randomization is an alternative when we do not know enough to control but is generally inferior to good control when we do we suspect that at least some of the popular and professional enthusiasm for rcts as well as the belief that they are precise by construction comes from misunderstandings about random or realized confounding on the one hand and confounding in expectation on the other the rct strategy is only successful if we are happy with estimates that are arbitrarily far from the truth just so long as the errors cancel out over a series of imaginary experiments in reality the causality that is being attributed to the treatment might in fact be coming from an imbalance in some other cause in our particular trial limiting this requires serious thought about possible covariates angus deaton nancy cartwright the point of making a randomized experiment is often said to be that it ensures that any correlation between a supposed cause and effect indicates a causal relation this is believed to hold since randomization allegedly ensures that a supposed causal variable does not correlate with other variables that may influence the effect the problem with that simplistic view on randomization is that the claims made are both exaggerated and false even if you manage to do the assignment to treatment and control groups ideally random the sample selection certainly is except in extremely rare cases not random even if we make a proper randomized assignment if we apply the results to a biased sample there is always the risk that the experimental findings will not apply what works there does not work here randomization hence does not guarantee or ensure making the right causal claim although randomization may help us rule out certain possible causal claims randomization per se does not guarantee anything even if both sampling and assignment are made in an ideal random way performing standard randomized experiments only give you averages the problem here is that although we may get an estimate of the true average causal effect this may mask important heterogeneous effects of a causal nature although we get the right answer of the average causal effect being 0 those who are treated may have causal effects equal to 100 and those not treated may have causal effects equal to 100 contemplating being treated or not most people would probably be interested in knowing about this underlying heterogeneity and would not consider the average effect particularly enlightening there is almost always a trade off between bias and precision in real world settings a little bias often does not overtrump greater precision and most importantly in case we have a population with sizeable heterogeneity the average treatment effect of the sample may differ substantially from the average treatment effect in the population if so the value of any extrapolating inferences made from trial samples to other populations is highly questionable since most real world experiments and trials build on performing a single randomization what would happen if you kept on randomizing forever does not help you to ensure or guarantee that you do not make false causal conclusions in the one particular randomized experiment you actually do perform it is indeed difficult to see why thinking about what you know you will never do would make you happy about what you actually do randomization is not a panacea it is not the best method for all questions and circumstances proponents of randomization make claims about its ability to deliver causal knowledge that are simply wrong there are good reasons to be sceptical of the now popular and ill informed view that randomization is the only valid and best method on the market it is not share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on 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