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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during September 2021;
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er unhelpful metaphors and metaphysics maintaining that economics is a science in the true knowledge business yours truly remains a skeptic of the pretenses and aspirations of new keynesian macroeconomics so far i cannot really see that it has yielded very much in terms of realistic and relevant economic knowledge keynes basically argued that it was inadmissible to project history on the future consequently an economic policy cannot presuppose that what has worked before will continue to do so in the future that macroeconomic models could get hold of correlations between different variables was not enough if they could not get at the causal structure that generated the data they were not really identified dynamic stochastic general euilibrium dsge macroeconomists including new keynesians has drawn the conclusion that the problem with unstable relations is to construct models with clear microfoundations where forward looking optimizing individuals and robust deep behavioural parameters are seen to be stable even to changes in economic policies as yours truly has argued in a couple of post e g here and here this however is a dead end here we are getting close to the heart of darkness in new keynesian macroeconomics where new keynesian economists think that they can rigorously deduce the aggregate effects of representative actors with their reductionist microfoundational methodology they have to put a blind eye on the emergent properties that characterize all open social systems including the economic system the interaction between animal spirits trust confidence institutions etc cannot be deduced or reduced to a question answerable on the individual level macroeconomic structures and phenomena have to be analyzed also on their own terms and although one may easily agree with e g paul krugman s emphasis on simple models the simplifications used may have to be simplifications adequate for macroeconomics and not those adequate for microeconomics in microeconomics we know that aggregation really presupposes homothetic an identical preferences something that almost never exist in real economies the results given by these assumptions are therefore not robust and do not capture the underlying mechanisms at work in any real economy and models that are critically based on particular and odd assumptions and are neither robust nor congruent to real world economies are of questionable value even if economies naturally presuppose individuals it does not follow that we can infer or explain macroeconomic phenomena solely from knowledge of these individuals macroeconomics is to a large extent emergent and cannot be reduced to a simple summation of micro phenomena moreover even these microfoundations aren t immutable the deep parameters of new keynesian dsge models tastes and technology are not really the bedrock of constancy that they believe pretend them to be so i cannot concur with paul krugman mike woodford greg mankiw and other sorta kinda new keynesians when they more or less try to reduce keynesian economics to intertemporal maximization modified with sticky prices and a few other deviations if there is one thing that distinguished keynes economic analysis from that of his predecessors it was his rejection of the idea of a unique full employment equilibrium to which a market economy will automatically return when it experiences a shock keynes argued that an economy could shift from a full employment equilibrium to a persistent slump as the result of the interaction between objective macroeconomic variables and the subjective animal spirits of investors and other decision makers it is this perspective that has been lost in the absorption of new keynesian macro into the dsge framework john quiggin share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky revisiting myrdal s solution to the problem of value bias 24 sep 2021 at 10 22 posted in theory of science methodology comments off on revisiting myrdal s solution to the problem of value bias recognition of the phenomena of rationalization and mystification as the effects of unconscious interference enables us to pinpoint the error in an influential solution to the problem of value bias authorized inter alia by myrdal on this solution recognizing that value neutrality is impossible all the social scientist needs to do is state his or her own value assumptions fully and explicitly at the beginning of some piece of work so as to put the reader and possibly also the writer on their guard it is not difficult to see that this solution begs the question for it presupposes that x knows what his or her values are that is it presupposes that s he has the kind of knowledge about him or herself that ex hypothesi in virtue of unconscious interference s he cannot have about society now for x to have such knowledge about him or herself s he would have had to become fully conscious of the formerly unconscious mode of interference in which case a statement of value assumptions is unnecessary because objectivity is now possible conversely if x is not conscious of the unconscious mode of interference then any statement of his or her professed value assumptions will be worthless moreover one cannot say in general whether any such statement will be more or less misleading thus consider for instance what often follows professions of the kind i m not prejudiced about or i m a tolerant sort of person true liberal good democrat mutatis mutandis similar considerations apply in the case of conscious and semi conscious modes of interference avowals are either unnecessary or potentially misleading share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky hume s fork 23 sep 2021 at 16 59 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky how is a philosophy of science possible 22 sep 2021 at 11 00 posted in theory of science methodology 1 comment what is the relation between science and philosophy do they compete with one another or speak of different worlds neither position is acceptable philosophy is distinguished by the kinds of considerations and arguments it employs it does not consider a world apart from that of the various sciences rather it considers just that world but from the standpoint of what can be established about it by a priori argument philosophy like science produces knowledge but it is knowledge of the necessary conditions for the production of knowledge second order knowledge if you like if philosophy is as i believe it can be a conceptual science then like any science it ought to be able to tell us something we did not already know it ought to be able to surprise us for as marx astutely observed all science would be superfluous if the outward appearances and essences of things directly coincided share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky probability and economics 21 sep 2021 at 18 44 posted in economics 2 comments modern mainstream economics relies to a large degree on the notion of probability to at all be amenable to applied economic analysis economic observations allegedly have to be conceived as random events that are analyzable within a probabilistic framework but is it really necessary to model the economic system as a system where randomness can only be analyzed and understood when based on an a priori notion of probability when attempting to convince us of the necessity of founding empirical economic analysis on probability models neoclassical economics actually forces us to implicitly interpret events as random variables generated by an underlying probability density function this is at odds with reality randomness obviously is a fact of the real world probability on the other hand attaches if at all to the world via intellectually constructed models and a fortiori is only a fact of a probability generating nomological machine or a well constructed experimental arrangement or chance set up just as there is no such thing as a free lunch there is no such thing as a free probability to be able at all to talk about probabilities you have to specify a model if there is no chance set up or model that generates the probabilistic outcomes or events in statistics one refers to any process where you observe or measure as an experiment rolling a die and the results obtained as the outcomes or events number of points rolled with the die being e g 3 or 5 of the experiment there strictly seen is no event at all probability is a relational element it always must come with a specification of the model from which it is calculated and then to be of any empirical scientific value it has to be shown to coincide with or at least converge to real data generating processes or structures something seldom or never done and this is the basic problem with economic data if you have a fair roulette wheel you can arguably specify probabilities and probability density distributions but how do you conceive of the analogous nomological machines for prices gross domestic product income distribution etc only by a leap of faith and that does not suffice you have to come up with some really good arguments if you want to persuade people into believing in the existence of socio economic structures that generate data with characteristics conceivable as stochastic events portrayed by probabilistic density distributions we simply have to admit that the socio economic states of nature that we talk of in most social sciences and certainly in economics are not amenable to analyze as probabilities simply because in the real world open systems there are no probabilities to be had the processes that generate socio economic data in the real world cannot just be assumed to always be adequately captured by a probability measure and so it cannot be maintained that it even should be mandatory to treat observations and data whether cross section time series or panel data as events generated by some probability model the important activities of most economic agents do not usually include throwing dice or spinning roulette wheels data generating processes at least outside of nomological machines like dice and roulette wheels are not self evidently best modeled with probability measures if we agree on this we also have to admit that much of modern mainstream economics lacks sound foundations when economists and econometricians often uncritically and without arguments simply assume that one can apply probability distributions from statistical theory on their own area of research they are really skating on thin ice this importantly also means that if you cannot show that data satisfies all the conditions of the probabilistic nomological machine then the statistical inferences made in mainstream economics lack sound foundations share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant 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