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n which even a large increase in the quantity of money may exert a comparatively small influence on the rate of interest for a large increase in the quantity of money may cause so much uncertainty about the future that liquidity preferences due to the precautionary motive may be strengthened whilst opinion about the future of the rate of interest may be so unanimous that a small change in present rates may cause a mass movement into cash it is interesting that the stability of the system and its sensitiveness to changes in the quantity of money should be so dependent on the existence of a variety of opinion about what is uncertain best of all that we should know the future but if not then if we are to control the activity of the economic system by changing the quantity of money it is important that opinions should differ posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday january 26 2015 phases of the business cycle something i found while looking through my old notes on the schumpeter essay in readings in business cycle theory from a file i wrote or last edited back in 1996 schumpeter writing in 1935 described a cycle in four phases we speak today of four phases as well but they are not the same today we speak of a period of growth a peak a period of recession and a trough pronounced to rhyme with cow or low point schumpeter by way of contrast emphasized the importance of the smoothed trend line about which the cycle varied he described a period of prosperity followed by a period of recession both above the trend line then depression as the decline continued below the trend line and finally a period of revival as the economy climbed back toward its trend line for schumpeter all four phases are time periods with duration for us today two of the phases have duration and two are turning points for schumpeter the cycle is like a sine wave beginning and ending at its average value for us the cycle is measured peak to peak like a cosine wave or trough to trough bottom to bottom posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday january 25 2015 getting the story straight the marxists internet archive long my source when quoting keynes also offers geoffrey pilling s the crisis of keynesian economics i just looked at it for the first time i didn t read much but this stood out right away writing of the decade following the end of the war j k galbraith said within a decade after 1945 the belief that the modern economy was subject to a deficiency in demand and that offsetting government action would be required was close to becoming the new orthodoxy that s geoffrey pilling s date in brackets there not mine by 1950 then give or take the idea that aggregate demand was insufficient was pretty well accepted among economists and galbraith adds economists thought offsetting government action was required that s important because it explains why federal spending remained high it explains why government spending did not drop back to a low level as it was before the great depression and two world wars graph 1 from brad delong s fiscal policy in the shadow of the great depression pdf 21 pages the increase in federal spending from less than five percent of gdp to near 20 percent was not an accident nor was it a conspiracy liberal or otherwise it was economic policy designed to boost economic performance and to create both jobs and profits through free market processes golly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday january 24 2015 comparative economic policy outcomes tom hickey links to russia capital outflow is actually companies reducing debt at russia insider due to sanctions instead of rolling over their debt like everyone else does russian companies are forced to repay it also means that unlike everyone else they re going to have very little debt and from the article central bank of russia released full year 2014 capital outflows figures prompting cheerful chatter from the us officials and academics gleefully loading the demise of the russian economy in simple terms usd 118 billion or 78 percent of the catastrophic capital flight out of russia in 2014 was down due to debt redemptions in banking and corporate sectors not investors fleeing or depositors taking a run but partially forced debt repayments m ost of the capital flight that western analysts decry goes to improve russian balance sheets and reduce russian external debt that can t be too bad right not too bad i don t know why hey external debt can be a problem sure any debt can be a problem if there s too much of it but i don t know why the emphasis is always on external debt or government debt and never on private debt never on the big one tom s link caught my eye just the other day i made a prediction the first of the great powers to reduce private debt will be the world s next hegemon could it be russia don t laugh i know you want to laugh it s a natural response given the cheerful chatter and the gleeful gloating we ve been exposed to from the idiots in our idiot boxes just remember it remember you want to laugh at the thought that russia could be the world s next hegemon see where china is today remember where china was when nixon decided to be friends it would be like taking candy from a baby doing business with china not any more russia i don t know i don t make predictions i never make predictions that was a fluke that one anyway it wasn t so much a prediction as a way to present a concept maybe the russian economy will get bogged down in its own internal debt as we have as japan did as china yet may it s a very common fate maybe russia will be crushed by debt maybe they won t you want to know who will be the hegemon i want you to know that it depends on comparative policy outcomes and debt minimization the first to reduce private debt becomes the first that is ready for vigorous growth posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments friday january 23 2015 go billy bill mitchell 6 the fire sector is the the most commonly cited source of wealth for billionaires on this list in other words the wealth has been predominantly accumulated through non productive activities i like that bold terminology posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday january 22 2015 disputations from discourse on method at adelaide edu i have never observed that any truth before unknown has been brought to light by the disputations that are practised in the schools for while each strives for the victory each is much more occupied in making the best of mere verisimilitude than in weighing the reasons on both sides of the question verisimilitude the appearance of being true or real posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday january 21 2015 ebooks adelaide i recently found ebooks at adelaide edu turned up in a google search https ebooks adelaide edu au nicely formatted a pleasure to have on the screen recommended posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday january 20 2015 methods versus premisses syll says the university of greenwich shows the way he quotes sara gorgoni from the rethinking economics blog but syll omitted gorgoni s opening the 24th of november was an important day for the economists at the university of greenwich when four programmes were successfully reviewed the revised programmes were commended for the enthusiasm and development of new material by the teaching team showing a flexible and responsive approach to the current environment as well as taking a leading role in the sector that is they were praised for leading changes in the way economics is taught they were praised for changing the way economics is taught is that the key do you think was that maynard s focus in the general theory there s nothing wrong with what economists teach it s just the way that they teach it i don t think so no it goes much deeper as gorgoni writes students themselves have recognised that the tools and theories they learn don t enable them to make sense of the world they live in maynard dealt with difficult questions of theory not how questions were asked but what questions and what was wrong with the answers what was wrong he said was not the superstructure but the premisses change enough premisses and the whole structure falls like jenga keynes wrote moreover the characteristics of the special case assumed by the classical theory happen not to be those of the economic society in which we actually live with the result that its teaching is misleading and disastrous if we attempt to apply it to the facts of experience sounds like what gorgoni s students are saying posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday january 19 2015 human nature from duke today a new study from duke university finds that people will evaluate scientific evidence based on whether they view its policy implications as politically desirable the goal was to test in a scientifically controlled manner the question does the desirability of a solution affect beliefs in the existence of the associated problem in other words does what we call solution aversion exist campbell said we found the answer is yes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments sunday january 18 2015 toward clarity you will notice that i am using strong language i am prepared to admit right away that i may be dead wrong in my judgements but there is no point in pussyfooting bluntness may lead to an interesting discussion robert solow posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday january 17 2015 from the standup economist at philip greenspun s weblog posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday january 16 2015 steve keen exactly right steve keen a private debt crisis can t be solved simply by increasing public debt if deleveraging is to really occur and allow a real private sector revival then private debt has to be substantially reduced by deliberate government policy a lot of people who should readily accept keen s view get tangled up instead in what they think keynes would do they want to do the keynesian thing they want to increase government spending they think that s solution enough they forget that we have been relying on the keynesian solution since the great depression we did increase government spending and it worked it kept us going far past the point when the burden of private debt should have brought the economy crashing down unfortunately this means that the burden of private debt today is far beyond anything that could be called sustainable what is necessary is to restore balance between public and private debt the solution this time around is not further increase in government debt but a reduction of private debt but we are a nation that uses credit for growth and we have created advanced institutions and advanced technologies that further the growth of credit what this means is that every time the government boosts spending by a dollar we boost private credit use and private debt by more than a dollar or we did until it created the crisis graph 1 change in private debt per dollar of change in federal debt by sector until about 2008 households and nonfinancial corporate business and financial business each of them tended to create more than a dollar of new debt for each new dollar of federal debt total up those private components and it is even easier to see private debt growing faster than federal debt since the crisis private debt has been growing more slowly than federal debt perhaps this suggests that we don t need deliberate government policy to substantially reduce private sector debt but if that solution works if increased public spending and debt works if it restores the health of our economy then private debt will grow faster again in a growing economy we use lots of credit private debt will grow faster than federal debt monetary imbalance will grow worse again and the problem will not have been solved to solve the problem we have to prevent the future expansion of private debt we can do that easily by setting up incentives that accelerate the repayment of private debt and by using those incentives as a way to fight inflation instead of always and everywhere relying on the mind numbingly stupid policy of raising interest rates but that is a problem for the future that is a problem for a time after our economy has been restored to health meanwhile the quickest way to restore our economy is to set up those incentives today to reduce private debt today to reduce financial cost today to encourage the growth of the non financial economy today think of it as a deliberate government policy yes certainly policy must provide more money so the economy can function that s where federal spending comes in but maybe and this is something to think about maybe there is enough federal debt already if we reduce the growth of private debt we must reduce private debt because it creates a financial cost that undermines profit income and aggregate demand we must provide an alternative money one that does not carry such cost let the federal government spend if need be and see to it that the federal reserve buys up enough federal debt to push up the amount of low cost money in our economy to bring down the ratio of costly money or credit in use or debt relative to money that does not cost interest and need not be repaid this is the key ratio high cost money relative to low cost money it determines whether times are good or hard it determines the state of economic health and vigor it determines whether we survive as a nation and as a civilization posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday january 15 2015 a prediction the first of the great powers to reduce private debt will be the world s next hegemon posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 24 comments wednesday january 14 2015 yes and you find the same problem in private debt oilfield trash alerts us to steve keen s outlook 2015 pdf 20 pages lots of graphs from the pdf figure 1 private debt bubbles everywhere want evidence that debt is the problem note that private debt in japan peaks 20 years before private debt in europe china australia and the united states look a lot of people say no debt s not the problem the problem is inequality here s the thing we have to stop saying no i want you to stop saying no debt s not the problem i want you to start saying yes and you find the same problem in inequality it s the same problem inequality is how it shows up among people debt is how it shows up in economic data it s not two different problems we don t need to fight about that if you want to think of inequality as the problem and think of debt as evidence of the inequality problem that s fine with me but we have to stop saying no we have to start agreeing with each other otherwise the people who disagree with both of us will win the day posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments tuesday january 13 2015 nutting could be finer rex nutting the income of the top 0 01 of earners the top 1 in 10 000 has increased at a 6 annual rate since 197...
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