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Text of the page (random words):
ewly created money is in no great rush to turn it into spending money note fred s title for the dataset shown in blue is all federal reserve banks total assets eliminations from consolidation it would have been simpler if they just called it all federal reserve banks total assets the word eliminations in there makes it seem that the blue line must show less than the total i don t think that s the case i think they add up or consolidate the holdings of the dozen fed banks and then eliminate some items to avoid double counting net instead of gross something like that one more bit from the moneyness quote above before we move on that seller or the next seller after will choose to do something real with the proceeds like buying a consumption good investing in real capital or hiring an employee the sorts of purchases that benefit the poor please don t call me poor almost done in the same post koning writes say we change where central banks inject new money instead of conducting qe with a select group of banks central banks now purchase directly from the populace and instead of buying financial assets they bid for stuff that regular folks own like cars houses and wedding rings no the trouble with qe was not that it bought the wrong assets asset buying by the federal reserve is the wrong solution no matter what they buy the trouble with qe was that it took the assets out of the economy and left the liabilities in it was the liabilities that created the problem to begin with excessive liabilities liabilities created by the unsustainable growth of debt the fed decided to buy up assets when the one thing that would have solved the problem quickly would have been to pay off the liabilities the asset holders would have got their money just the same but we would have found some relief from the costly burden of excessive debt and that is the key that would have allowed economic growth to resume with vigor but no the supply side mindset puts all the focus on the asset side with not a wisp of concern for the liability side of things therein lies the problem koning seems to have missed it completely posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday december 29 2014 no government in history has been known to evade this pattern governments if they endure always tend increasingly toward aristocratic forms no government in history has been known to evade this pattern and as the aristocracy develops government tends more and more to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class whether that class be hereditary royalty oligarchs of financial empires or entrenched bureaucracy frank herbert children of dune from frank herbert quotes at goodreads do me a favor take it as forewarning not prediction posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 28 2014 enabling him to pile up claims to enjoyment which he does not intend to exercise at any definite time from the conclusion of chapter 10 ancient egypt was doubly fortunate and doubtless owed to this its fabled wealth in that it possessed two activities namely pyramid building as well as the search for the precious metals the fruits of which since they could not serve the needs of man by being consumed did not stale with abundance the middle ages built cathedrals and sang dirges two pyramids two masses for the dead are twice as good as one but not so two railways from london to york thus we are so sensible have schooled ourselves to so close a semblance of prudent financiers taking careful thought before we add to the financial burdens of posterity by building them houses to live in that we have no such easy escape from the sufferings of unemployment we have to accept them as an inevitable result of applying to the conduct of the state the maxims which are best calculated to enrich an individual by enabling him to pile up claims to enjoyment which he does not intend to exercise at any definite time posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday december 27 2014 how monopoly finance capital produces stagnation and upheaval the image and the post title are from a book review by david fields at naked keynesianism the book is the endless crisis how monopoly finance capital produces stagnation and upheaval from the usa to china by john bellamy foster robert w mcchesney fields writes as such what has taken place is an historical transformation towards the process of financialization with an inability to absorb effectively economic surpluses concerning the promotion of rising wages along with productivity nfcs or non financial corporations are coerced to paying a larger share of their internal funds specifically via debt leveraging including consumers to financial institutions these financial institutions which are increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people have become some of the most powerful actors borrowers borrow savers save when borrowers repay some perhaps most of the payment stays in finance fewer funds circulate more borrowing is required more than before just to sustain the same level of economic activity as before the natural pattern that arises is that money accumulates in finance until the economy can no longer sustain economic growth and then we have a problem posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 11 comments thursday december 25 2014 getting new hardware is like having a lobotomy i managed to put microsoft office on this new computer as i had it on the piece of shit unusable netbook found a site with instructions http superuser com questions 606149 how do i transfer excel from one computer to another w o installation cd it sent me to get the free produkey utility and it gave me a download site the download wanted the product key and accepted the info i took from produkey we re in posted by the arthurian at 3 12 pm 0 comments tuesday december 23 2014 rgdp less the employment population ratio this is the third graph from yesterday graph 1 real gdp red and the employment population ratio blue i want to subtract the blue line from the red one and see the difference i couldn t figure how to have fred do that because showing percent change is fred s last step i need one more step after that the subtraction so download the values and do it in a spreadsheet why god gave us the internet then change the graph to make both series quarterly and download the data again rename the file and upload it to zoho again and discover the wrap text button delete the first few rows where the employment population ratio has no data delete the last row where there s as yet no data for the last three months of 2014 press ctrl home insert 5 columns and 20 rows the graph will go in the upper left of the sheet and the calculations that support it will go on rows below the graph maybe fewer new rows the dates in the fred download file are always formatted as 1953 01 01 yyyy mm dd i always want them as 1953q1 year and quarter number i always forget the calculation i always have to work it out again there it is but i won t remember next time i ll have to work it out again good thing it s simple anyway here s the graph well i have to look at that one for a while posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday december 22 2014 one two three take the employment population graph from 21 december and show all the years 1 compare it to the picture of inflation adjusted gdp 2 there s not much similarity to write home about however take those two series put em together on the same graph and look at percent change from year ago 3 the employment to population ratio runs generally lower but the two lines are similar now posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 21 2014 appears to flatten before onset of recession graph 1 payems divided by pop fred v3m the uptrend goes flat before the 1980 recession the 1982 recession the 1991 recession briefly but twice the 2001 recession and the 2009 recession does that mean it will necessarily happen again the next time no but is it interesting yes is the uptrend flattening now no is that interesting yes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels predicting recession saturday december 20 2014 like a digital signal turning off graph 1 the ratio of required reserves to total reserves the signal was on up near the value 1 0 for half a century or more suddenly it turned off dropping to zero you couldn t get a much better representation of a digital signal the shutdown occurs between august and november of 2008 i was shocked when i first saw that graph as i hope you are but when i caught my breath i realized what it shows is a change in policy it doesn t show that the whole economy changed in an instant it only shows the impact of a single policy decision or so i think if you look at economic data industrial production for example you see a more gradual change graph 2 graph 2 the ratio from graph 1 blue and the industrial production index red 2002 2014 the red line shows a pretty severe change but not instantaneous posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 4 comments friday december 19 2014 feynman on reading do not read so much look about you and think of what you see there richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday december 18 2014 feynman on assumptions whenever you see a sweeping statement that a tremendous amount can come from a very small number of assumptions you always find that it is false there are usually a large number of implied assumptions that are far from obvious if you think about them sufficiently carefully richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday december 17 2014 feynman on discovery the chance is high that the truth lies in the fashionable direction but on the off chance that it is in another direction a direction obvious from an unfashionable view of field theory who will find it only someone who has sacrificed himself by teaching himself quantum electrodynamics from a peculiar and unfashionable point of view one that he may have to invent for himself richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday december 16 2014 feynman on uncertainty people search for certainty but there is no certainty people are terrified how can you live and not know it is not odd at all you only think you know as a matter of fact and most of your actions are based on incomplete knowledge and you really don t know what it is all about or what the purpose of the world is or know a great deal of other things richard feynman posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday december 15 2014 velocity nber 14144 and satisfaction this is one of those posts where i don t so much have something to say as i have something to see for myself i didn t think it through before i wrote it i just had an idea and started investigating making notes along the way these are those notes so if the thing is unreadable don t say i didn t warn you if you can t read it skip to the end to check out the graphs i m happy how they worked out my suspicions were not unfounded this is new to me using nber data to chase down an answer the most interesting of the fred velocity series is the one that goes back into the 1800s from the notes on that series data were computed from wartime current prices divided by money which had been centered to june 30 for each year source simon kuznets nber this nber data series a14187 appears on the nber website in chapter 14 at http www nber org databases macrohistory contents chapter14 html nber indicator a14187 i clicked the chapter 14 link and came to a whole page of nber links on money and banking searched for a14187 found one db dat doc a14187 u s velocity of money stock 1869 1966 the three d links look to me to be database data and documentation i clicked doc and found this c var 0075 14187 velo ty 1r 869 966 md 1e 37 c ref 0075 loc 636 width 9 dk 10 col 71 79 c exp dec 3 c c velocity of money stock c c c nber series 14187 c area covered u s c units ratio c annual coverage 1869 1966 c quarterly coverage none c monthly coverage none c seasonal adjustment none c source simon kuznets nber c c notes data were computed from wartime current prices c divided by money which had been centered to june 30 for each c year c c checked manually no corrections necessary c c oh okay i backed out of that and did another search this time for money stock i found u s velocity of money stock 1869 1966 again and then u s money stock series m14144a this time the doc file captured my attention here s the body of it money stock commerical banks plus currency held by public seasonally adjusted nber series 14144 area covered u s units billions of dollars annual coverage none quarterly coverage none monthly coverage 05 1907 12 1946 seasonal adjustment seasonally adjusted by nber source data are computed by nber from the sum of series 14125 currency held by the public and series 14145 demand deposits adjusted and time deposits all commericial banks see friedman and schwartz monetary statistics of the united states nber 1970 notes series 14144 is presented here as four variables 1 seasonally adjusted data 1867 1906 2 seasonally adjusted data 1907 1946 3 original data 1955 1969 4 seasonally adjusted data 1947 1969 data are for the wednesday nearest the end of the month currency plus demand deposits plus time deposits friedman and schwartz four variables data back to 1867 and forward to 1969 i can use this i backed out of the doc and clicked the dat three columns of data year month and value in a textfile should be importable into a spreadsheet firefox let me save each dat page easily and oh there are only three 14144 pages and nothing going back into the 1800s hm i searched around a bit no luck well that s disappointing okay i ll go with what i found openoffice opened the dat file in writer crap maybe i can copy and paste it to the spreadsheet nope not in a useful way i need import maybe insert sheet from file fixed width detect special numbers ok yes rename the worksheet before importing the others okay got em all that went quick now document the data there is no header info in the nber dat files copy a few lines from the nber page paste to the blogger compose editor db dat doc m14144a u s money stock commerical banks plus currency held by public seasonally adjusted 05 1907 12 1946 db dat doc m14144b u s demand deposits adjusted time deposits all commericial banks plus currency held by the public 01 1955 09 1969 db dat doc m14144c u s demand deposits adjusted time deposits all commercial banks plus currency held by the public seasonally adjusted 01 1947 09 1969 the thing comes out as a fully formatted table sweet sometimes stuff just works i gave it the border and white background to dress it up i don t think i need the m14144b file the other two are both seasonally adjusted and b doesn t say it is anyway file a takes me from 1907 to the end of 1946 and file c picks up at the beginning of 1947 and goes to 1969 hm i started my senior year in college 1969 damn i wish...
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