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ce mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman a prediction of vigor 11 sept 2015 in comments household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income and now that the decline in debt service seems to be bottoming out i am willing to say we might be ready to begin a period of good times of approximately the same duration as the decline t he cost of debt has only just become low so now conditions will be able to improve 13 sept 2015 2½ times longer and 2½ times deeper debt service we could soon get a few years when the economy seems pretty good again while debt races upward even faster than it did before the crisis if we have the stomach for it right now though nobody expects a few good years i don t either 3 march 2016 we are at the bottom now ready to go up dpd we re right there right now dpd is ready to go up right now remember when the downtrend turns and an uptrend begins the economy for a while is very very good this is not going to be your typical anemic recovery this is going to be the full tilt rapid output growth rapid productivity growth high performance boom if only they would use the accelerated repayment of debt as their main tool for fighting inflation we could have that permanent quasi boom 7 april 2016 way ahead of ya steve i predict a boom of golden age vigor beginning in 2016 and lasting eight to ten years it has already begun in two years everyone will be predicting it but i hate to see the mess of debt we ll be in ten years from now if congress doesn t create some incentives to accelerate the repayment of debt and soon 25 april 2016 april update we are at the bottom debt per dollar for the most part projections look like this month s new york fed staff forecast rgdp growth slowing from 2½ in 2014 to 2 in 2015 holding at 2 in 2016 and slowing to 1¾ in 2017 sluggishness on top of sluggishness they predict no improvement they are assuming that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely 1 june 2016 fear of debt total debt total debt relative to base the trend line bottoms out in the first quarter of 2016 just a few months ago the trend shows increase since that time this trend line turning upward this is a big deal if you read economic history in terms of debt relative to base you know that when the trend bottoms out and starts to go up economic growth gets vigorous 2 august 2016 is anyone still predicting recession yes in fact monthly rgdp with hp trend line in practice a friend says we assume that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change i would now add that if you are not intently focused on debt credit and money then you are looking at the wrong graphs and you won t have reasons to expect a change 7 august 2016 about the vigor created by our next president debt growth money growth dpd debt service the stage has already been set for the vigor that will be attributed to our next president 21 august 2016 potential productivity productivity debt service both i expect that debt service will soon rise sharply productivity will improve just as happened in the mid 1990s and the economy will again be vigorous 22 august 2016 debt service and labor productivity projections debt service labor productivity by the time we get to 2020 the economy will be great the person we elect president in 2016 will be easily re elected in 2020 and we ll all be happy again for a while until debt goes too high once again and we have another financial disaster 26 october 2016 taylor s laundry no graphs quoting john b taylor in several key ways the us economy resembles an economy at the bottom of a recession ready for a restart 5 november 2016 about the vigor created by our next president debt growth money growth dpd debt service reblogged from august 16 november 2016 checking the revised debt service numbers debt service i stand by my prediction growth and vigor becoming obvious in 2018 17 november 2016 why labor productivity is low a pictorial debt service labor productivity we are in a transition now that will soon give way to a more vigorous economy debt service is beginning to increase and productivity will soon be on the rise 18 december 2016 federal debt held by federal reserve banks as a percent of debt other than federal federal debt held by federal reserve banks relative to the federal debt i am not suggesting that we should introduce policies that reduce new borrowing not yet at least new borrowing gives life to our economy i am proposing that after we borrow and spend the money we should pay off the loan faster this will slow or stop the growth of accumulated private debt and that will be a good thing if it means policy must reverse the tendency toward inequality boosting median income so that people can afford to pay down debt so much the better 2016 2017 28 january 2017 it s productivity and cost not productivity and labor cost debt service labor productivity labor productivity i have pointed out that productivity reliably goes high after financial costs go low for two decades after the second world war and again for most of a decade after 1995 when productivity goes high again over the next few years it will confirm my hypothesis though donald trump may get all the credit 11 february 2017 robert shiller fleshes out expectations with narrative economics meanwhile dpd debt service private public debt ratio i think not 27 march 2017 economic potential and the growth of debt private non financial debt this last graph does show what it takes to make the economy good it takes an adequate growth of credit without an excessive accumulation of debt 29 march 2017 comment on the promise of vigor debt service the uptick at the end of graph 4 seems to have fizzled out as of the end of 2016 however there is a lot more talk now about things picking up 6 august 2017 indications no graphs quoting reuters u s employers hired more workers than expected in july and raised their wages 26 august 2017 where we stand dpd three measures of rgdp growth it won t be long djt will be telling us he has succeeded in making america great again because we got good growth don t believe it we were going to get good growth anyway 8 september 2017 remember alan greenspan in 1995 talking about anecdotal evidence core pce inflation i just want to remind you that the latter 1990s were pretty good for employment and income and real gdp growth not just for price stability economists consider that a fluke though they refuse to consider that it could happen again 9 september 2017 don t look now bloomberg says but productivity is finally rising no graphs i told you so 11 september 2017 does not contradict my prediction of booming rgdp capacity utilization and because recent patterns of debt and debt service are comparable to those of the 1990s we should expect a sustained high in capacity utilization and in economic growth as in the 90s maybe longer as the fall of debt was deeper and people are more cautious now about adding to their debt this would be the perfect time for policymakers to create tax incentives designed to accelerate the repayment of private debt 13 september 2017 it s not a coincidence no graphs quoting bloomberg the conventional wisdom did not work in the 1990s and it is not working now said allen sinai chief executive officer of decision economics in new york 16 september 2017 when palley and taylor agree federal funds rate palley didn t know it in july of 1996 but the economy was strong enough then to withstand a series of interest rate hikes and move ahead with vigor nonetheless we don t know it yet but the economy today is probably strong enough again to withstand a series of interest rate hikes and still move ahead with vigor and strong enough for the same reasons 26 september 2017 a burst of renewed growth steven kopits no graphs gavin davies and steven kopits are predicting vigor 12 october 2017 comment on we are at the bottom now ready to go up no graphs in comment quoting the wall street journal of 10 october the international monetary fund s world economic outlook report forecasts growth of 3 6 this year and 3 7 next year and us growth below 2 5 for 2017 and 2018 3 november 2017 comment on steady economic growth continues no graphs quoting cnbc of 1 november the trump administration has promised to spur gdp growth to 3 percent a year or more most economists private think a sustained 3 percent growth rate is optimistic 4 november 2017 excerpts no graphs quoting a bls news release dated 2 november 2017 nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3 0 percent during the third quarter 8 november 2017 slowly people are recognizing that the economy is improving no graphs 30 aug 2017 trump s hope for 3 growth no longer looks so far fetched at cnbc 8 sept 2017 two signs the us economy really is getting better from world economic forum 27 october 2017 us economy on solid growth path from dw com 17 november 2017 comment on way ahead of ya steve no graphs in comment quoting edward harrison of 1 november yesterday i promised you to look at individual economic data points and tell you why i think they bolster the case for optimism about the economic trajectory 17 november 2017 comment on way ahead of ya steve no graphs in comment quoting tim duy of 13 november conditions are fast approaching those the late 90 s i believe the economy will sustain enough momentum to hit that point within the next six months 4 december 2017 24 years borio says it s not a coincidence debt per dollar shows 24 years we must make debt grow more slowly that s crucial as a bonus a policy that gets us paying down debt faster is a policy that fights inflation why should interest rates have to do all the work 2017 2018 26 feb 2018 the fed an assessment of the u s economy by randal k quarles real gross domestic product gdp growth through the final three quarters of 2017 averaged almost 3 percent a considerable step up over the 2 percent average annual pace recorded over the previous eight years 22 march 2018 i called it two years ago household debt service if you look at the debt service plot it seems to be going up after 2016 q1 look for gdp growth to be better than 3 next year productivity will be going up too maybe this year 24 may 2018 similarities in wage growth the 1990 91 recession and the great recession growth of average hourly earnings i agree with john taylor that in 2016 our economy resembled an economy at the bottom of a recession ready for a restart in the last two years our economy has been preparing for that restart as graph 4 shows it is now ready prepare to be astounded by the vigor 26 may 2018 john cochrane says the economy has finally recovered from the 2008 recesion 28 august 2018 u s consumer confidence rises to highest in almost 18 years at bloomberg they do point out that the consumer sentiment index disagrees with all the good news but hey there s good news now 4 sept 2018 u s factory activity hits 14 year high supply constraints rising at reuters u s manufacturing activity accelerated to more than a 14 year high in august boosted by a surge in new orders but increasing bottlenecks in the supply chain because of a robust economy and import tariffs could restrain further growth bottlenecks in production will support inflation but the constraints have yet to become overly binding said ryan sweet a senior economist at moody s 4 september 2018 atlanta fed lifts u s third quarter gdp view to 4 7 percent the u s economy is growing at a 4 7 percent annualized rate in the third quarter the atlanta federal reserve s gdpnow forecast model showed on tuesday this was faster than the 4 1 percent gdp growth pace calculated by the regional fed s forecast program on aug 30 6 sept 2018 layoffs just reached a half century low at wsj the number of americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell at the end of august to a nearly five decade low 7 sept 2018 economy adds more jobs than expected in august and wage growth hits post recession high at cnbc 12 sept 2018 what s going on with the economy it s the stimulus stupid productivity is going up john cassidy quoting kevin hassett the chairman of the council of economic advisers 25 sept 2018 u s consumer confidence unexpectedly jumps to 18 year high u s consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to the highest in 18 years in september a...
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