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date on accuracy for 2012 guru forecast at 31 dec 12 market closing price kep corp 10 27 this one is createwealth8888 s all time favourite stock 11 00 7 2 m1 2 55 2 71 6 3 comfortdelgro 1 445 1 78 23 2 q m 0 84 0 35 58 3 ezion 0 71 1 69 138 super 1 39 2 34 134 if you have followed guru from share investment you huat ah in 2012 next in 2013 will createwealth8888 huat in 2013 createwealth8888 also has the following stocks at 31 dec 12 market closing price biosensors 1 205 dbs 14 84 keppel corp 11 00 ocbc research chun bo read do you still believe in financial experts or gurus forecast and calls 2013 posted by createwealth8888 at 16 04 0 comments labels stocks forecast fisher s eight investment principles 1 buy companies that have disciplined plans for achieving dramatic long range profit growth and have inherent quailities making it difficult for newcomers to share in that growth 2 buy companies when they are out of favour 3 hold a stock until either a there has been a fundamentall change in its nature e g big management changes or b it has grown to a point where it no longer will be growing faster than economy as a whole 4 de emphasize the importance of dividends cw8888 we should be looking at both dividend and dividend payout ratio at the same time and not just based on dividend alone high dividend payout ratio will return high dividend yield it is expected and nothing extraordinary about it this is how market works in the long run 5 recognise that making some mistakes is an inherent cost of investment taking small profits in good investments and letting losses grow in bad ones is a sign of abominable investment judgement 6 accept the fact that only a relatively small number of companies are tryuly outstanding therefore concentrate your funds in the most desirable opportunities any holding of over twenty stocks is a sign of a financial incompetence 7 never accept blindly whatever may be the dominant current opinion in the financial community nor should you reject the prevailing view just for the sake of being contrary 8 understand that success greatly depends on a combination of hard intelligence and honesty posted by createwealth8888 at 15 39 0 comments labels education trading experts sunday 30 december 2012 happy 2013 new year to all cw8888 s blog visitors and readers happy new year to you what is your investment plan for 2013 how can you up your investing skills and knowledge a man only learns in two ways one by reading and the other by association with smarter people will roger posted by createwealth8888 at 15 58 1 comments labels news greeting occam s razor in ta and fa 2 read occam s razor in ta and fa what is in fa fixed numbers the financial numbers and ratios that are presented at quarterly financial reports or annual report are fixed you as investors cannot suka suka change them you analyse these numbers and ratios and decide whether you are still comfortable and happy with the reported numbers value investing is the way to do it for fa it is you see what you see what is in ta too many school of thoughts with too many adjustable parameters every ta school claims success btw who lose their money in market then with so many adjustable parameters for ta indicators it is you see what you like to see by adjusting these parameters to tell your own story and convince yourself that you are right each telling their own story no bluffing yourself or what posted by createwealth8888 at 09 30 0 comments labels education trading laws donkey dog and monkey years just for laugh the nice story that i read after the earth was created god in his wisdom decided to grant all creatures a thirty year life span but the donkey realising how much work that would mean was horrified and immediately negotiated an eighteen year reduction the dog was none too happy either fearing it would be useless and unwanted in old age kick from pillar to post so god agreed to reduce its life span as well then the monkey also pleaded for a reduction and god agreed to remove ten years from its busy and precious life but the humans were shocked to have given so little time especially as they considered themselves to be by far the most superior part of creation so god gave them the donkey s eighteen years but still the humans were dissatisfied so god gave them the extra years taken from the dog and still they complained so god added the monkey s unwanted ten years too and that s why human beings live in health and happiness for the first twenty or so years of their long lives for that s their natural span but after that the serious work starts and they carry the heavy burden of working from dawn to dusk to pay for their home to bring up their children and to service the pension that s necessary to sustain them through so many years of life slaves to their masters they ll put up with almost anything to get through their donkey years after that come the years of the dog when they sit by the fireside grumbling and grousing irritated by their offspring and scratching at itches finally they enter their monkey years dementia where as everyone knows they do whatever the hell they like posted by createwealth8888 at 08 47 3 comments labels just for laugh saturday 29 december 2012 my war room 7 the lost years read my war room 6 the lost years uncle8888 has learnt and became wiser not to chase the last mile read chasing the last 100k last mile and may fall hard significant changes in mindset in 2007 2008 and 2011 2012 spot the difference posted by createwealth8888 at 10 27 3 comments labels performance war room full year 2012 investment performance report read q3 2012 investment performance report a goal based investing approach i use a goal based investing approach by setting a 10 year goals target to achieve for each year from 2012 to 2021 full year 2012 result achieved 63 of 2012 goal portfolio xirr track measure and visualise without doing it how to revise investing strategies and improve year on year investing performance my portfolio xirr includes all investible cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 28 dec 2012 since one year ago 2 6 since 1 nov 2008 10 2 since 1 jan 2003 11 5 since 1 jan 2000 10 2 from the above multi years xirr value i believe my investing performance is rather consistent riding the market cycles of bull and bear higher low at market correction was noted and still waiting for the next bear if the bull continues to charge forward a new all time high record breaking can be expected how is my investing skills contributing to my net worth and towards my financial independence dream liquidity and permanency liquidity of capital for the next bear and permanency of staying invested for the next bull having taken back 100 of investing capital as war chest for the next bear it is like year 2000 all over again but this time uncle8888 is armed with master degree in stock market and going for phd in stock market it is going to be more exciting this time regular readers will be able to watch full time actions on how investing lessons for phd course are conducted here in the last two courses readers could only manage to watch half time actions as uncle8888 started to blog in 2006 mr bear do come quickly in 2013 2014 for the 1st semester btw someone asked one question i wanted to ask you is there a reason you upkeeping create wealth blog is it an avenue for you to track market progress and put up interesting articles just out of curiosity answer is you will never know it may make a difference in someone s life or thinking 3 posted by createwealth8888 at 09 45 0 comments labels performance dow 12 938 11 down 158 20 1 21 cliff monday posted by createwealth8888 at 07 47 3 comments labels charts dow friday 28 december 2012 secret behind uncle8888 s top pick kep corp just for thinking what is the secret behind uncle8888 s top pick kep corp superior fundamental analysis no no no superior technical analysis no no no actually it was uncle8888 made money from watching lky s lips he said singapore had too many finance companies uncle8888 listened and bought keppel finance and tat lee finance guess what happened uncle8888 made xx xxx when smaller finance companies were taken private and disappeared some years later uncle8888 made money again from watching lky s lips he said singapore had too many banks uncle8888 listened and bought keppel bank guess what happened uncle8888 made xx xxx when keppel bank also disappeared by then uncle8888 loved keppel brand when the opportunity in sep 2011 came keppel corp was the natural choice in uncle8888 s mind right the rest is history posted by createwealth8888 at 19 57 1 comments labels just for thinking investing thursday 27 december 2012 keppel s new contracts bring total 2012 order wins to s 9 9 billion keppel offshore marine ltd s keppel o m subsidiaries have secured three new contracts worth a combined value of s 420 million to bring the group s total order wins for 2012 to s 9 9 billion mr tong chong heong chief executive officer of keppel o m said with the strong confidence and support of new and repeat customers keppel o m continues to be the provider of choice for a broad range of offshore and marine projects 2013 will be a busy year for us as we continue to focus on the quality execution of all our projects we are committed to ensure that they are delivered safely promptly and to high customer satisfaction we will also enhance our capabilities and so extend our range of value added services keppel singmarine pte ltd keppel singmarine secured two of the three new contracts with the third new contract won by keppel shipyard ltd keppel shipyard one of keppel singmarine s two new contracts is from hydro marine services inc a subsidiary of mcdermott international inc mcdermott for the construction of a high specification deepwater pipelay s lay vessel developed by keppel s marine technology development mtd this vessel is designed to support advanced pipelay operations in which pipelines are installed to depths of up to 10 000 feet it is also capable of achieving efficient pipelay rates for long trunklines operating in severe weather conditions and providing significant thrust output and power distribution works for the pipelay vessel is scheduled to commence in 1q 2013 and is expected to complete in approximately two and a half years this contract will become effective after both parties have fulfilled certain conditions precedent by january 2013 keppel singmarine s other new contract is from australia based bhagwan marine pty ltd bhagwan marine to build a catamaran air dive support vessel dsv when completed in 1q 2014 the dsv will be deployed in the north west of western australia to support the operations of apache energy ltd designed by incat crowther pty ltd the dsv is of twin hull configuration catamaran specialised units such as pipelay vessels and dsvs form part of keppel singmarine s growing track record keppel singmarine has also worked together with keppel shipyard to bring to the market saipem s castorone one of the world s largest and most capable pipelay vessels presently keppel singmarine s projects include a multi purpose dive support construction vessel for sbm offshore n v sbm offshore keppel shipyard s new contract is from emas offshore construction and production pte ltd emas offshore to modify and upgrade an existing floating production storage and offloading fpso facility lewek arunothai the yard s workscope includes the installation of new structures piping systems and deck crane refurbishment of the living quarters as well as the fabrication and installation of the rigid arm and external turret mooring systems when completed in 2q 2013 the fpso will be deployed as an early production system in the kamelia field which is located in the malaysia thailand joint development area jda in the north malay basin the upgraded fpso will be capable of handling 100 million standard cubic feet per day mmscfd of gas 1000 barrels per day bpd of condensates and 500bpd of water the above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of keppel corporation limited for the current financial year createwealth8888 s tracking of kep corp order book however market is still worry of margin squeeze the next 2 3 quarters will be clearer whether margin really kena squeeze or not posted by createwealth8888 at 20 21 0 comments labels news keppel corp dow 13 114 59 down 24 49 0 19 posted by createwealth8888 at 08 14 0 comments labels charts dow wednesday 26 december 2012 sti 3 180 81 up 12 24 0 39 posted by createwealth8888 at 18 54 0 comments labels charts sti tuesday 25 december 2012 12 years of christmas and two lessons in investing 12 years of christmas two lessons in investing liquidity and permanency lesson 1 liquidity liquidity for expenses investment axiom always invest what you can to afford to lose but how many retail investors have discipline for this when chasing the bull market it always look silly for any extra cash to be rotting in the bank earning tiny returns the lure of the bull will be so strong that we will soon begin to deploy these extra cash temporary into the market no worry we will know how to take them back soon but the truth market can turn faster than our self denial the moment we have accepted the truth and overcome our self denial it is often too late big negative returns are locked once we have liquidated our investment at market low or near market low in jan 2009 uncle8888 finally realised the liquidity for expenses issue and accepted the truth that the daily bombardment of great depression 2 0 news might be real what about losing his job living expenses how what about his two kids university fund starting from jul 2009 taking a gamble he bited the bullet and liquidated them at big losses to maintain liquidity for expenses and locked in negative returns painful lesson learnt when market recovered two months later never never invest money that may be needed in few years even when the bull market is running fast risk is the permanent loss of capital and not price stock volatility we really cannot take stock price volatility anymore when we really need the money soon what warren buffet said is so right what is risk the conventional definition of risk in finance literature is price volatility but to super investor warren buffett risk is the permanent loss of capital lesson 2 permanency of staying invested at all times market volatility is something we as investors have to live with it across market cycle of bulls and bears it is hard for us to exactly time the market to execute meaningful and significant exits and entries of our positions in the market but we must always remember that for every 365 days of liquidity of cash in the bank we are eroding the value of these idle cash at the rate of inflation over long term can we afford to lose them to inflation permanency of staying invested to fight inflation get it...
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