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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during March 2025;
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lars (10), 2011 (10), theory (10), could (10), between (10), can (10), statistical (10), true (10), some (10), society (9), their (9), till (9), really (9), our (9), variables (9), will (8), only (8), also (8), problem (8), eine (8), most (8), these (8), econometric (8), rather (8), hope (8), probabilistic (8), view (7), already (7), other (7), politics (7), who (7), modern (7), cannot (7), which (7), mmt (7), was (7), sich (7), man (7), regression (7), give (7), just (7), approach (7), level (7), econometricians (7), modeller (7), prognoser (7), kan (7), eller (7), 2026 (6), science (6), statistics (6), like (6), being (6), student (6), ekonomiska (6), want (6), all (6), knowledge (6), those (6), wenn (6), study (6), when (6), relations (6), mechanisms (6), them (6), assumptions (6), stable (6), were (6), truth (6), make (6), kind (6), måste (6), vad (6), arbetslöshetssiffran (5), styr (5), does (5), stuff (5), social (5), system (5), possible (5), trump (5), uncertainty (5), wie (5), 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mycket låg omfördelning eller ännu hellre om alla hade en inkomst över genomsnittet vilket naturligtvis inte är möjligt de här studierna bygger således på resonemang som inte är logiskt giltiga eller som hansen 2022 s 74 sammanfattar d e är en övning i ren rappakalja det ät lätt att hålla med både tony johansson och peo hansen den här typen av ekonomiska kalkylmodeller av invandringens kostnader är ren och skär rappakalja de speglar inte de verkliga effekterna av immigration och ger en i grunden förfelad bild av immigrationens faktiska statsfinansiella kostnader i vårt land i ett sverige där man idag okritiskt uppfattar invandringen som en ekonomisk börda är denna katalysrapport väsentlig läsning som på faktabasis ifrågasätter den gängse bilden av invandringens ekonomiska kostnader kanske har migrationen rent av gjort oss ekonomiskt rikare share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky jürgen habermas 31 mar 2025 at 11 17 posted in politics society comments off on jürgen habermas share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky bob woodward on trump s america 30 mar 2025 at 22 32 posted in politics society comments off on bob woodward on trump s america share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky konjunkturinstitutet och ekonomiska prognoser 29 mar 2025 at 10 24 posted in economics comments off on konjunkturinstitutet och ekonomiska prognoser i veckans avsnitt av starta pressarna diskuteras varför det går så dåligt för svensk ekonomi och vad man eventuellt kan göra åt det för att reda ut frågor kring detta bjöd man in albin kainelainen chef för konjunkturinstitutet en statlig myndighet under finansdepartementet som i huvudsak ägnar sig åt att plocka fram prognoser som används som beslutsunderlag för den ekonomiska politiken i vårt land nationalekonomer hävdar ofta vanligtvis med hänvisning till milton friedman och hans metodologiska individualism att det inte gör så mycket om de antaganden som deras modeller bygger på är realistiska eller ej vad som betyder något är om de prognoser som modellerna resulterar i visar sig vara riktiga eller ej om det verkligen är så är den enda slutsats vi kan dra att dessa modeller och prognoser hör hemma i papperskorgen för oj vad fel de har haft både vad gäller konjunkturinstitutet och riksbanken har prognoserna de senaste tjugo åren gång på gång slagit rejält fel som de flesta andra prognosmakare missade man både finanskrisen år 2007 och dess allvarliga effekter men också under de senaste åren har t ex ränte och inflationsprognoser visat sig vara usla för några år sedan bjöd yours truly in fondförvaltaren alf riple med bakgrund som chefsanalytiker på nordea och rådgivare på norska finansdepartementet att föreläsa på min kurs finanskriser orsaker förlopp och konsekvenser enligt alf fanns det ingen anledning att vara speciellt förvånad över ekonomernas usla prognoser vad är värst en dålig prognos eller ingen prognos svaret är enkelt så fort du exponeras för en prognos är du i en sämre position än du var innan expertprognoser gör med all sannolikhet mer skada än nytta det är därför det lönar sig att snabbt bläddra förbi tidningsartiklar med rubriker som så kommer börsen gå i år tänk dig att du har som jobb att sköta ditt företags valutaväxlingar du måste bestämma att antingen säkra växelkursen redan nu eller vänta tills beloppet anländer och växla till den kurs som gäller då som tur är har du analytikernas dollarprognoser till hjälp de gör det inte ett dugg lättare att förutspå dollarkursen men de kan hjälpa dig ändå om du lyckas göra rätt spelar inte analyserna någon större roll men om dollarn faller som en sten och du har valt att inte säkra växelkursen kommer företagsledningen att vilja veta varför du har sumpat bort företagets pengar du kan dra en lång historia om historiska valutatrender ekonomisk tillväxt betalningbalans och ränteskillnader till slut kommer alla att hålla med om att du agerade rätt mot bakgrund av den information du hade på förhand analyserna gör att du kommer undan särskilt de som hade mest fel prognoserna har inget ekonomiskt värde vare sig för företaget eller samhället värdet är att de räddar ditt skinn med andra ord nationalekonomerna med sina rigorösa och precisa matematisk statistiska ekonometriska modeller har genomgående fel och det är alla vi andra som får betala för det ska vi kunna återskapa förtroendet för den nationalekonomiska vetenskapen måste vi sluta låtsas som om vi har exakta och riktiga svar på allting för det har vi inte vi bygger modeller och teorier där vi på hundradelars procent kan tala om vad värdet på räntan kommer att vara om tio år vi kan kalkylera investeringsrisker och göra exakta framtidsprognoser men detta bygger vi på matematiska och statistiska antaganden som ofta har väldigt lite med verkligheten att göra genom att inte låtsas om den avgörande skillnaden mellan modell och verklighet invaggar vi människor i en falsk trygghet av att vi har koll på läget det har vi inte det är denna falska trygghet som aktivt medverkar till återkommande finanskriser vi måste våga erkänna att vi ibland inte vet allt och att det finns saker som vi inte ens vet att vi inte vet all osäkerhet går inte att reducera till kalkylerbar risk på det ekonomisk politiska området måste vi sluta upp med att bygga modeller och prognoser på fullständigt verklighetsfrånvända modeller med robotliknande optimerande människor utrustade med rationella förväntningar detta är ren och skär nonsens vi måste bygga våra modeller på antaganden som inte står i uppenbar kontrast till verkligheten och i det arbetet måste vi vara ödmjuka nog att också inse att psykologi och andra beteendevetenskaper kan bidra med viktiga pusselbitar it is my view that most individuals underestimate the uncertainty of the world this is almost as true of economists and other specialists as it is of the lay public to me our knowledge of the way things work in society or in nature comes trailing clouds of vagueness experience during world war ii as a weather forecaster added the news that the natural world is also unpredictable an incident illustrates both uncertainty and the unwillingness to entertain it some of my colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long range weather forecasts i e for the following month the statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance the forecasters themselves were convinced and requested that the forecasts be discontinued the reply read approximately like this the commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good however he needs them for planning purposes kenneth arrow share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky econometrics a critical realist critique 28 mar 2025 at 22 30 posted in statistics econometrics 2 comments mainstream economists often hold the view that criticisms of econometrics are the conclusions of sadly misinformed and misguided people who dislike and do not understand much of it this is really a gross misapprehension to be careful and cautious is not the same as to dislike any perusal of the mathematical statistical and philosophical works of nancy cartwright chris chatfield hugo keuzenkamp john maynard keynes tony lawson asad zaman aris spanos duo qin and david freedman would show that the critique is put forward by respected authorities i would argue against common knowledge that they do not misunderstand the crucial issues at stake in the development of econometrics quite the contrary they just as yours truly know them all too well and are not satisfied with the validity and philosophical underpinning of the assumptions made for applying its methods let me try to do justice to the critical arguments on the logic of probabilistic induction and shortly elaborate mostly from a philosophy of science vantage point on some insights critical realism gives us on econometrics and its methodological foundations the methodological difference between an empiricist and a deductivist approach can also clearly be seen in econometrics the ordinary deductivist textbook approach views the modelling process as foremost an estimation problem since one at least implicitly assumes that the model provided by economic theory is a well specified and true model the more empiricist general to specific methodology often identified as the lse approach on the other hand views models as theoretically and empirically adequate representations approximations of a data generating process dgp diagnostics tests mostly some variant of the f test are used to ensure that the models are true or at least congruent representations of the dgp the modelling process is here more seen as a specification problem where poor diagnostics results may indicate possible misspecification requiring re specification of the model the objective is standardly to identify models that are structurally stable and valid across a large time space horizon the dgp is not seen as something we already know but rather something we discover in the process of modelling it considerable effort is put into testing to what extent the models are structurally stable and generalizable over space and time although i have sympathy for this approach in general there are still some unsolved problematics with its epistemological and ontological presuppositions there is e g an implicit assumption that the dgp fundamentally has an invariant property and that models that are structurally unstable just have not been able to get hold of that invariance but as already keynes maintained one cannot just presuppose or take for granted that kind of invariance it has to be argued and justified grounds have to be given for viewing reality as satisfying conditions of model closure it is as if the lack of closure that shows up in the form of structurally unstable models somehow could be solved by searching for more autonomous and invariable atomic uniformity but if reality is congruent to this analytical prerequisite has to be argued for and not simply taken for granted even granted that closures come in degrees we should not compromise on ontology some methods simply introduce improper closures closures that make the disjuncture between models and real world target systems inappropriately large garbage in garbage out underlying the search for these immutable fundamentals lays the implicit view of the world as consisting of material entities with their own separate and invariable effects these entities are thought of as being able to be treated as separate and addible causes thereby making it possible to infer complex interaction from knowledge of individual constituents with limited independent variety but again if this is a justified analytical procedure cannot be answered without confronting it with the nature of the objects the models are supposed to describe explain or predict keynes himself thought it generally inappropriate to apply the atomic hypothesis to such an open and organic entity as the real world as far as i can see these are still appropriate strictures all econometric approaches have to face grounds for believing otherwise have to be provided by the econometricians trygve haavelmo the father of modern probabilistic econometrics wrote that he and other econometricians could not build a complete bridge between our models and reality by logical operations alone but finally had to make a non logical jump 1943 15 a part of that jump consisted in that econometricians like to believe that the various a priori possible sequences would somehow cluster around some typical time shapes which if we knew them could be used for prediction 1943 16 but since we do not know the true distribution one has to look for the mechanisms processes that might rule the data and that hopefully persist so that predictions may be made of possible hypotheses on different time sequences samples in haavelmo s somewhat idiosyncratic vocabulary most had to be ruled out a priori by economic theory although one shall always remain in doubt as to the possibility of some outside hypothesis being the true one 1943 18 to haavelmo and his modern followers econometrics is not really in the truth business the explanations we can give of economic relations and structures based on econometric models are not hidden truths to be discovered but rather our own artificial inventions models are consequently perceived not as true representations of dgp but rather instrumentally conceived as if constructs their intrinsic closure is realized by searching for parameters showing a great degree of invariance or relative autonomy and the extrinsic closure by hoping that the practically decisive explanatory variables are relatively few so that one may proceed as if natural limitations of the number of relevant factors exist haavelmo 1944 29 haavelmo seems to believe that persistence and autonomy can only be found at the level of the individual since individual agents are seen as the ultimate determinants of the variables in the economic system but why the logically conceivable really should turn out to be the case is difficult to see at least if we are not satisfied with sheer hope as we have already noted keynes reacted against using unargued for and unjustified assumptions of complex structures in an open system being reducible to those of individuals in real economies it is unlikely that we find many autonomous relations and events and one could of course with keynes and from a critical realist point of view also raise the objection that to invoke a probabilistic approach to econometrics presupposes e g that we have to be able to describe the world in terms of risk rather than genuine uncertainty and that is exactly what haavelmo 1944 48 does to make this a rational problem of statistical inference we have to start out by an axiom postulating that every set of observable variables has associated with it one particular true but unknown probability law but to use this trick of our own and just assign a certain probability law to a system of observable variables however cannot just as little as hoping build a firm bridge between model and reality treating phenomena as if they essentially were stochastic processes is not the same as showing that they essentially are stochastic processes as hicks 1979 120 21 so neatly puts it things become more difficult when we turn to time series the econometrist who works in that field may claim that he is not treading on very shaky ground but if one asks him what he is really doing he will not find it easy even here to give a convincing answer h e must be treating the observations known to him as a sample of a larger population but what population i am bo...
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