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ction and imports less subsidies net interest and miscellaneous payments and business current transfer payments both data series are indexed to 2009 100 that s why the two lines meet in 2009 on graph 1 and that s why their ratio has the value 1 0 in 2009 on graph 2 graph 2 unit labor costs relative to unit nonlabor costs graph 2 shows unit labor costs falling relative to unit nonlabor costs it s all downhill by the end labor costs are about half what they were at the start as compared to nonlabor costs that s pretty outrageous i think especially considering that economists view increases in unit labor costs as an important indicator of potential inflation posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday february 23 2015 excellent excellent michael hudson how economic theory came to ignore the role of debt real world economics review issue no 57 6 september 2011 pp 2 24 http www paecon net paereview issue57 hudson57 pdf a credit based theory of pricing would start with the perception that debt service represents a rising share of the cost of producing and distributing goods and services excellent no meaningful analysis of demand or of the degree to which say s law applies can be drawn up without taking the volume of debt service into account excellent michael hudson how economic theory came to ignore the role of debt real world economics review issue no 57 6 september 2011 pp 2 24 http www paecon net paereview issue57 hudson57 pdf posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday february 22 2015 on the decline of international competitiveness from michael hudson s how economic theory came to ignore the role of debt pdf 23 pages an important predecessor of adam smith the merchant mathew decker emigrated from holland to settle in london in 1702 in the preface to his influential essay on the causes of the decline of the foreign trade published in 1744 he attributed the deterioration in britain s international competitiveness to the taxes levied to carry the interest charges on its public debt these taxes threatened to price its exports out of world markets by imposing a prodigious artificial value upon our goods to the hindrance of their sale abroad taxes on food and other essentials pushed up the subsistence wage level that employers were obliged to pay and hence the prices they had to charge as compared to those of less debt ridden nations the cost of finance in other words drove up taxes which drove up the cost of non financial goods and services this pushed up subsistence wages at home and reduced competitiveness in foreign markets mathew decker had in mind the costs associated with public debt but all debt has costs that similarly affect prices at home and abroad posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday february 19 2015 rousseau wachtel 2008 rousseau wachtel since the 1990s a burgeoning empirical literature has illustrated the importance of financial sector development for economic growth despite the growing consensus however we find that the link between finance and growth in cross country panel data has weakened considerably over time at the very time that financial sector liberalization spread around the world the influence of financial sector development on economic growth has diminished posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday february 18 2015 it s not that complicated the real effects of debt pdf 34 pages by stephen g cecchetti m s mohanty and fabrizio zampolli 2011 they evaluate government debt and non financial corporate debt and household debt the opening sentences of the abstract at moderate levels debt improves welfare and enhances growth but high levels can be damaging when does debt go from good to bad dammit no debt is not a flashing light that sometimes flashes red and other times green debt is always bad period debt is the cost that is associated with credit use credit use is always good and debt is always bad you may want to finesse that a bit and say credit use is sometimes good and sometimes bad and i won t argue with you but please understand i m saying it my way to emphasize a point credit use is demand credit use is spending and spending is demand but credit use doesn t cost anything while it s still just credit use it s like getting stuff for free that s why it s good that s why it boosts the economy but then a month or so after you use the credit you get the bill now it s not credit use anymore now it is debt and now it s like paying for something without getting anything that s why debt is always bad don t argue with me dammit i m trying to make an idea simple in the pdf they say moderate levels of debt improve growth but that s wrong it s the credit use that improves growth because credit use is demand it s debt that harms growth because the payment is disconnected from demand and with debt there is payment but no demand moderate levels of debt improve growth not really moderate levels of debt harm the economy less than high levels of debt moderate debt is easier to bear because moderate credit use can balance against it when you have high levels of debt it takes high levels of credit use to offset the drag from the debt to understand debt keep three principles in mind debt always hurts the economy credit use always helps the economy and credit use always creates debt posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments labels non linear the difference between debt and credit tuesday february 17 2015 credit use is good for growth but accumulated debt is not so the effect is non linear vox financial development and output growth in developing asia and latin america a comparative sectoral analysis by joshua aizenman yothin jinjarak donghyun park the global crisis put to the fore the possibility that the relationship between financial depth and output growth may be non linear the development of the financial sector may benefit the real sector but only up to a point 1 beyond that point further financial development may have no effect or even a negative effect on growth the evidence suggests that the level of service flow of financial sector is good only up to a point after which it becomes a drag on sectoral growth in the sample countries overall our evidence is consistent with the hypotheses we set forth at the outset in particular the non linear effect of financial development on growth and its uneven effect across sectors in addition we find that financial depth has a negative effect on manufacturing in east asia and a positive effect on finance insurance and real estate sector in latin america financial efficiency as measured by lending deposit interest spread is positively associated with the growth of finance insurance and real estate sector we also find some evidence of a financial dutch disease the faster the growth of financial services and the larger the lending deposit interest spread the slower the growth of the manufacturing sector footnotes 1 boyd and smith 1992 show that the quality of financial intermediation has first order effects on capital flows and economic growth providing a nice interpretation to the lucas paradox 1992 of capital flowing uphill a topic that gained even more attention in the context of the global imbalances in the 2000s see laura et al 2003 ju and wei 2011 and the references therein cecchetti and kharroubi 2012 study how financial development affects growth at both the country and industry level they find the level of financial development is good only up to a point after which it becomes a drag on growth these results are in line with rousseau and wachtel 2011 s vanishing effect i e credit has no statistically significant impact on gdp growth over the 1965 2004 period looking at the more recent data philippon and reshef 2013 concluded that at the very high end of financial development rapidly diminishing social returns may have set in aizenman et al 2013 found that periods of accelerated growth of the financial sector are more likely to be followed by abrupt financial contractions than are periods of slower financial sector growth though these studies do not identify the mechanisms associated with the vanishing effect of finance they are consistent with minsky 1974 s hypothesis over time that financial deepening may eventually divert financial resources from financing real activities into speculative and ultimately destabilising risky and bubbly yield seeking financial investments nonlinear sure the part i like best rousseau and wachtel in the footnote credit has no statistically significant impact on gdp growth over the 1965 2004 period yeah accumulated debt has been excessive since 1965 yeah from the list of references rousseau p and p wachtel 2011 what is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth economic inquiry 49 276 288 posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels non linear monday february 16 2015 the mortgage forgiveness debt relief act and debt cancellation irs the mortgage forgiveness debt relief act and debt cancellation if you owe a debt to someone else and they cancel or forgive that debt the canceled amount may be taxable if you borrow money and the lender later cancels or forgives the debt you may have to include the cancelled amount in income for tax purposes depending on the circumstances when you borrowed the money you were not required to include the loan proceeds in income because you had an obligation to repay the lender when that obligation is subsequently forgiven the amount you received as loan proceeds is normally reportable as income because you no longer have an obligation to repay the lender i have to say the last couple sentences there make perfect sense a loan doesn t count as income because i have to repay it so then if it turns out i don t have to repay it i guess it does have to count as income here s what doesn t make sense it doesn t make sense when everything that happens in the economy drives people to use more and more debt until suddenly debt breaks the camel s back and the economy practically shuts down it doesn t make sense to push accumulated debt to such a high level that the economy can no longer even grow and then turn around and say you have to pay income tax on any debt that s forgiven that makes no sense posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday february 15 2015 victor ehrenberg from solon to socrates from my old notes excerpts out of from solon to socrates greek history and civilization during the sixth and fifth centuries b c by victor ehrenberg london methuen co ltd 1968 from the introductory material the period between solon and socrates includes the sixth and fifth centuries b c that is to say the culmination and the end of the archaic age and the finest flowering of the classical age i do not include the fourth century in spite of plato and praxiteles because of the decline and change in politics during that period solon was a poet and a statesman he is the first greek politician who still speaks to us with socrates one epoch ends and another begins his execution was the first unforgivable crime of the restored democracy which traced its origins back to solon the two men solon and socrates neither of them an extremist tried to create new bonds between the extremes in society notes on solon from hesiod onward oppression and injustice were causes of growing complaint the community needed a stronger supreme authority a unified domestic and foreign policy and above all social peace and economic prosperity in various cities the opportunity was seized by individual leaders strong personalities who gained power by usurpation the greeks called them tyrants athenian pottery had flourished in the ninth and eighth centuries after that there is no evidence that athens was of importance till the time of solon the nobility were the large landowners mainly corn growers and to some extent cattle breeders later cultivators of olives and vines these wealthy families were a clear minority of the people but they held most of the fertile land in the attic plains while the small farmers generally lived on the poorer land in the hills the nobility firmly entrenched in the security of their political power and their bonds of kinship cult and neighbourhood and so far not yet seriously affected by the slow rise of the peasantry were to face an economic and social crisis which not only undermined their own power but also severely shook the whole community the enmities among the noble families and the blood bath that ended the cylonian affair were symptoms rather than causes of general conditions otherwise hardly known to us after that aristotle writes there was for a long time civic struggle between the nobles and the people in general the lower classes were in a sorry plight what their situation exactly was depends on some facts which cannot be regarded as clearly established one thing we do know is that down to solon money economy hardly began to exert any influence at athens it was a question of land and its produce solon seems to have given a law to prevent the unlimited accumulation of land the fact that the plight of the peasantry was so widespread and also that athens did not send out colonies makes it likely that there was no bar to dividing the ordinary lot except that it may frequently have been too small for further division thus the number of very small farms would increase and make it more likely that so many peasants fell into debt aristotle maintains that loans were on the security of the persons of the debtor and his family sale into slavery was the ultimate consequence of that rule when a peasant tried to get help from a wealthy neighbour it was quite common as solon expressly states for the rich to make the most unfair use of their opportunities solon reproached them for avarice and arrogance thus condemning on moral grounds what he knows was at the same time a grave social danger solon was elected archon for the year 594 593 and was given full power the foremost thing he did was to free the debtors and their land he did this by cancelling all debts and this was called seisachtheia the shaking off of burdens it certainly was a radical measure but the loss for the creditors did not touch the substance of their wealth at the same time he forbade for the future all loans on the security of the person so that never again could a man or his wife and family be enslaved for debt it is possible that he cancelled thereby a law of dracon s solon was a man of the middle road that will have been a trend of his nature but it was also the result of a reasoned approach to politics rather than an a priori principle solon learnt the wisdom that in great things it is hard to please everybody he proudly claimed to the demos i have given such honour as is sufficient neither taking away nor granting them more for those who had power and were great in riches i equally cared that they should suffer nothing wrong thus i stood holding my strong shield over ...
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