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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2014;
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n essential emblem and idol of those who sit in the top tier of the machine i think that they are immensely rash in their comfortable belief that nothing really serious ever happens nine times out of ten nothing really does happen merely a little distress to individuals or to groups but we run a risk of the tenth time and stupid into the bargain if we continue to apply the principles of an economics which was worked out on the hypothesis of laissez faire and free competition to a society which is rapidly abandoning these hypotheses so next time you want to come up with some new idea on how to solve our economic problems with a magic gold bullet remember new economic thinking starts with reading old books why not start with the best there are those written by john maynard keynes all cried out 26 aug 2014 at 08 15 posted in varia comments off on all cried out that voice still moves me everytime i hear it great expectations 25 aug 2014 at 17 32 posted in varia comments off on great expectations piketty ett rött skynke på dn s ledarsida 25 aug 2014 at 12 42 posted in economics 1 comment för några veckor sedan kunde vi läsa en söndagskrönika i sydsvenskan författad av förre ledarskribenten per t ohlsson om thomas piketty s capital in the twenty first century följande lilla stycke var belysande en svaghet med capital in the twenty first century är emellertid att pikettys alarmistiska slutsatser inte bygger på historiska data utan på teoretiska modeller lagar som han själv har konstruerat utifrån högst diskutabla antaganden om sparande och tillväxt dessutom bortser piketty från faktorer som bromsar den utbredning av ojämlikhet som han finner ödesbestämd till exempel utbildning och ny teknik flera tunga ekonomer har påpekat detta bland dem svensken per krusell tillsammans med kollegan tony smith från yale och idag kan vi på dn s ledarsida läsa att de slutsatser om ekonomins framtid som thomas piketty lägger fram i sin bok capital in the twenty first century vid en närmare granskning inte stämmer med verkligheten vad baserar sig denna slutsats på jo samma källa som per t ohlsson per krusell som läsare av denna blog kunnat konstatera under sommarens livliga forskardebatt kring pikettys bok se t ex här här och här är krusells illa underbyggda och i vissa avseenden direkt felaktiga modellantaganden långt ifrån med verkligheten överensstämmande krusell har som den amerikanske nationalekonomen brad delong övertygande visat en minst sagt dålig verklighetsförankring vad avser de numeriska värden han laborerar med i sina modellbaserade försök att vederlägga piketty as time passes it seems to me that a larger and larger fraction of piketty s critics are making arguments that really make no sense at all that i really do not understand how people can believe them or why anybody would think that anybody else would believe them today we have per krusell and tony smith assuming that the economy wide capital depreciation rate δ is not 0 03 or 0 05 but 0 1 and it does make a huge difference per krusell and tony smith piketty s second law of capitalism vs standard macro theory piketty s forecast does not rest primarily on an extrapolation of recent trends which is what one might have expected given that so much of the book is devoted to digging up and displaying reliable time series piketty s forecast rests primarily on economic theory we take issue two fundamental laws as piketty dubs them asserts that k y will in the long run equal s net g piketty argues s net g will rise rapidly in the future neither the textbook solow model nor a microfounded model of growth predicts anything like the drama implied by piketty s theory theory suggests that the wealth income ratio would increase only modestly as growth falls and if we go looking for why they believe that theory suggests that the wealth income ratio would increase only modestly as growth falls we find per krusell and tony smith is piketty s second law of capitalism fundamental in the textbook model the capital to income ratio is not s net g but rather s gross g δ where δ is the rate at which capital depreciates with the textbook formula growth approaching zero would increase the capital output ratio but only very marginally when growth falls all the way to zero the denominator would not go to zero but instead would go from say 0 12 with g around 0 02 and δ 0 1 as reasonable estimates to 0 1 but with an economy wide capital output ratio of 4 6 and a depreciation rate of 0 1 total depreciation the gap between ndp and gdp is not its actual 15 of gdp but rather 40 60 of gdp if the actual depreciation rate were what krussall and smith say it is fully half of our economy would be focused on replacing worn out capital it isn t that makes no sense at all for the entire economy one picks a depreciation rate of 0 02 or 0 03 or 0 05 rather than 0 10 i cannot understand how anybody who has ever looked at the nipa or thought about what our capital stock is made of would ever get the idea that the economy wide depreciation rate δ 0 1 and if you did think that for an instant you would then recognize that you have just committed yourself to the belief that ndp is only half of gdp and nobody thinks that except krusell and smith why do they think that where did their δ 0 1 estimate come from why didn t they immediately recognize that that deprecation estimate was in error and correct it why would anyone imagine that any growth model should ever be calibrated to such an extraordinarily high depreciation rate i really do not understand what is going on here at all brad delong när det kommer till kritan visar det sig att de tunga invändningarna mot piketty i själva verket väger mycket lätt thomas piketty har väckt viktiga frågor om hur vår ekonomi bäst tjänar mänskligheten och han ger till skillnad från dn s ledare som mot bättre vetande väljer att luta sig mot synpunkter framförda av en ekonom som sedan länge bemötts i forskarvärlden och visats vara dåligt underbyggda meningsfulla svar på dessa frågor och även om man inte är är övertygad om riktigheten av pikettys svar tål det att komma ihåg vad jesper roine skriver apropå sin nyligen på svenska utkomna sammanfattning av pikettys bok förhoppningen med att skriva denna sammanfattning har varit att den som inte hunnit läsa hela det engelska eller franska originalet snabbt ska kunna orientera sig kring resonemangen men framförallt att den ska locka fler att läsa pikettys bok och fundera på dessa frågor som larry summers mycket träffande uttryckte sig i en kommentar till pikettys bok böcker som ger det slutgiltiga svaret på en fråga är viktiga böcker som ställer nya frågor är viktigare för ekonomer krusell och andra kritiker av piketty verkar tro att frågan handlar om teori och att piketty på något sätt skulle ha felspecificerat standardtillväxtmodellen piketty talar i själva verket inte speciellt mycket om solows standardtillväxtmodell i boken men låt oss bara för skojs skull se vad en sådan neoklassisk tillväxtmodell säger anta att vi har en produktionsfunktion med homogenitetsgrad ett och obegränsad substituerbarhet exempelvis en standard cobb douglas produktionsfunktion med a som en given produktivitetsparameter och k som kvoten mellan kapital och arbete k l y akα med konstant investering λ av y och en konstant deprecieringskvot δ av kapital per arbete k där ackumulationskvoten för k δk λy δk är lika med δk λakα δk i steady state har vi λak α δk vilket ger λ δ k y och k λa δ 1 1 α sätter vi in detta värdet av k i produktions funktionen får vi en steady state output per arbete y ak α a1 1 α λ δ α 1 α under antagande av att vi har en exogen harrod neutral teknologiutveckling som ökar y med tillväxttakten g under antagande av nolltillväxt i arbete och y och k a fortiori omdefinierat som respektive y a och k a vilket ger produktionsfunktionen y kα får vi dk dt λy g δ k vilket i cobb douglas fallet dk dt λkα g δ k med steady state värdet k λ g δ 1 1 α och kapital outputkvoten k y k k α λ g δ om vi använder oss av den av piketty föredragna modellen där kapital och output ges i nettotermer efter depreciering måste vi ändra det senare uttrycket till k y k k α λ g λδ nu gör piketty förutsägelsen att g faller och att detta ökar kapital outputkvoten låt oss säga att δ 0 03 λ 0 1 och g 0 03 initialt detta ger en kapital outputkvot på ca 3 om g faller till 0 01 ökar kvoten till ca 7 7 vi får analoga resultat om vi använder en s k ces produktionsfunktion med en substitutionselasticitet σ 1 med σ 1 5 ökar kapitalandelen av outputen från 0 2 till 0 36 om förmögenhets inkomstkvoten går från 2 5 to 5 vilket enligt piketty är vad som faktiskt hände i de rika länderna under den senaste fyrtioårsperioden ricardian equivalence and dsge models 24 aug 2014 at 18 16 posted in economics 2 comments benchmark dsge models have paid little attention to the role of fiscal policy therefore minimising any possible interaction of fiscal policies with monetary policy this has been partly because of the assumption of ricardian equivalence as a result the distribution of taxes across time become irrelevant and aggregate financial wealth does not matter for the behavior of agents or for the dynamics of the economy because bonds do not represent net real wealth for households incorporating more meaningfully the role of fiscal policies requires abandoning frameworks with the ricardian equivalence the question is how to break the ricardian equivalence two possibilities are available the first is to move to an overlapping generations framework and the second which has been the most common way of handling the problem is to rely on an infinite horizon model with a type of liquidity constrained agents eg rule of thumb agents camillo tovar ricardian equivalence basically means that financing government expenditures through taxes or debts is equivalent since debt financing must be repaid with interest and agents equipped with rational expectations would only increase savings in order to be able to pay the higher taxes in the future thus leaving total expenditures unchanged there is of course no reason for us to believe in that fairy tale ricardo himself mirabile dictu didn t believe in ricardian equivalence in essay on the funding system 1820 he wrote but the people who paid the taxes never so estimate them and therefore do not manage their private affairs accordingly we are too apt to think that the war is burdensome only in proportion to what we are at the moment called to pay for it in taxes without reflecting on the probable duration of such taxes it would be difficult to convince a man possessed of 20 000 or any other sum that a perpetual payment of 50 per annum was equally burdensome with a single tax of 1000 and as one nobel prize laureate had it ricardian equivalence is taught in every graduate school in the country it is also sheer nonsense joseph e stiglitz twitter so i totally agree that macroeconomic models have to abandon ricardian equivalence nonsense but replacing it with overlapping generations and infinite horizon models isn t that in terms of realism and relevance just getting out of the frying pan into the fire share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky next page recent posts stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science what does randomisation guarantee nothing model reification in statistics and econometrics why democracy outperforms dictatorship tidöregeringens dårhusmässiga ekonomiska visdom rethinking the statistical toolkit så tycker väljarna om vinster i skolan the impact of winning a nobel 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