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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during August 2021;
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purely logical relation between hypothesis and evidence or between law like rules and explananda in science we argue and try to substantiate our beliefs and hypotheses with reliable evidence propositional and predicate deductive logic on the other hand is not about reliability but the validity of the conclusions given that the premises are true share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky levels of aspiration among economists 31 aug 2021 at 10 10 posted in economics comments off on levels of aspiration among economists submission to observed or experimental data is the golden rule which dominates any scientific discipline any theory whatever if it is not verified by empirical evidence has no scientific value and should be rejected maurice allais formalistic deductive glasperlenspiel can be very impressive and seductive but in the realm of science it ought to be considered of little or no value to simply make claims about models and lose sight of reality mainstream economics has since long more or less given up on the real world and contents itself with proving things about thought up worlds empirical evidence still only plays a minor role in economic theory where models largely function as a substitute for empirical evidence hopefully humbled by the ever growing manifest failure of its theoretical pretences the one sided almost religious insistence on axiomatic deductivist modeling as the only scientific activity worthy of pursuing in economics will give way to methodological pluralism based on ontological considerations rather than formalistic tractability to have valid evidence is not enough what economics needs is sound evidence why simply because the premises of a valid argument do not have to be true but a sound argument on the other hand is not only valid but builds on premises that are true aiming only for validity without soundness is setting the economics aspiration level too low for developing a realist and relevant science share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky italian hours personal 28 aug 2021 at 19 14 posted in varia 2 comments with four of our kids the youngest linnea wasn t yet born in florence twenty years ago one of the most beautiful cities i ve ever lived in yours truly studied italian there back in 1987 share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky venice 28 aug 2021 at 17 54 posted in varia comments off on venice wonderful venice scenes from brideshead revisited television s greatest literary adaptation bar none share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky la liberté le principe et la realité 28 aug 2021 at 12 20 posted in politics society 1 comment dans de nombreux pays et particulièrement en france avec les nouvelles manifestations du samedi des oppositionnels se regroupent autour d un slogan clair et mobilisateur la défense de la liberté supposée menacée par la montée d un autoritarisme étatique voire pour certains d une dictature sanitaire j ai le droit de ne pas me faire vacciner c est ma liberté face à cette importante minorité ancrée dans ses convictions médecins scientifiques journalistes ou politiques malgré la solidité quasi irréfutable des arguments en faveur du vaccin non seulement ne parviennent pas à convaincre ceux qui ne veulent rien entendre mais de plus sont eux mêmes envahis par un malaise qui rend parfois leurs propos hésitants car il n est jamais aisé de prendre position contre la liberté individuelle dans une société qui l inscrit comme un principe fondateur les nouvelles conditions du débat dans la société des convictions personnelles portent au contraire à des prises de positions extrêmes intransigeantes et passionnées spécialement dans les mouvances complotistes antisystème or ceux qui croient ainsi lutter au nom de la liberté ne font qu accentuer les clivages et renforcer les tenants d un autoritarisme plus marqué il serait sans doute urgent de comprendre que ce si beau principe de la liberté individuelle s exerce en fait dans un périmètre infiniment plus étroit que ce que nous imaginons il faut arrêter de rêver et regarder la réalité en face jean claude kaufmann le monde share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky probability and rationality trickier than most people think 26 aug 2021 at 18 42 posted in statistics econometrics 5 comments the coin tossing problem my friend ben says that on the first day he got the following sequence of heads and tails when tossing a coin h h h h h h h h h h and on the second day he says that he got the following sequence h t t h h t t h t h which report makes you suspicious most people yours truly asks this question says the first report looks suspicious but actually both reports are equally probable every time you toss a fair coin there is the same probability 50 of getting h or t both days ben makes equally many tosses and every sequence is equally probable the linda problem linda is 40 years old single outspoken and very bright she majored in philosophy as a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in anti nuclear demonstrations which of the following two alternatives is more probable a linda is a bank teller b linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement rationally alternative b cannot be more likely than alternative a nonetheless amos tversky and daniel kahneman reported judgments of and by representativeness in d kahneman p slovic a tversky eds judgment under uncertainty heuristics and biases cambridge uk cambridge university press 1982 that more than 80 per cent of respondents said that it was why do we make such irrational judgments in both these cases tversky and kahneman argued that in making this kind of judgment we seek the closest resemblance between causes and effects in the linda problem between linda s personality and her behaviour rather than calculating probability and that this makes alternative b seem preferable by using a heuristic called representativeness statement b in the linda problem seems more representative of linda based on the description of her although from a probabilistic point of view it is clearly less likely share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky miles davis quintet teatro dell arte 1964 26 aug 2021 at 11 19 posted in varia 2 comments what a treasure share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky keynes was not a keynesian he was a post keynesian 24 aug 2021 at 20 37 posted in economics 1 comment but these more recent writers like their predecessors were still dealing with a system in which the amount of the factors employed was given and the other relevant facts were known more or less for certain this does not mean that they were dealing with a system in which change was ruled out or even one in which the disappointment of expectation was ruled out but at any given time facts and expectations were assumed to be given in a definite and calculable form and risks of which tho admitted not much notice was taken were supposed to be capable of an exact actuarial computation the calculus of probability tho mention of it was kept in the background was supposed to be capable of reducing uncertainty to the same calculable status as that of certainty itself thus the fact that our knowledge of the future is fluctuating vague and uncertain renders wealth a peculiarly unsuitable subject for the methods of the classical economic theory john maynard keynes and this emphasis on the importance of uncertainty is not even mentioned in is lm keynesianism share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky was kant a racist 22 aug 2021 at 12 28 posted in politics society 6 comments share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky civilisationskritiska reflektioner 21 aug 2021 at 21 55 posted in varia 1 comment yours truly var för några år sedan inbjuden till en debatt på handelshögskolan i göteborg temat var tillväxt och miljö jag vet inte om jag lyckades övertyga alla som lyssnade om att det faktiskt är möjligt att leva bra och fullvärdiga liv utan att överkonsumera de som till äventyrs inte övertygades av mina åberopade teoretiska inspirationskällor soddy georgeescu roegen och boulding kanske istället kan få sig åtminstone en tankeväckare av nina hedenius underbara och via svt s öppet arkiv numera nedladdningsbara dokumentärfilm gubben i stugan som handlar om den pensionerade skogsarbetaren ragnars enkla liv i dalarnas finnskogar i alla moderna människors liv behövs det tid för andhämtning och reflektion och ibland när alla möjliga och omöjliga måsten och krav från omgivningen bara blir för många och högljudda kan det vara skönt att dra sig undan lite grand och slå av på takten för en stund alla har vi väl olika sätt att göra det på själv brukar jag titta på just gubben i stugan enkel och vacker civilisationkritik och en lisa för själen share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky cancel culture an orwellian perspective 20 aug 2021 at 19 26 posted in politics society comments off on cancel culture an orwellian perspective share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky sapere aude 20 aug 2021 at 10 06 posted in politics society 1 comment enlightenment is man s emergence from his self imposed nonage nonage is the inability to use one s own understanding without another s guidance this nonage is self imposed if its cause lies not in lack of understanding but in indecision and lack of courage to use one s own mind without another s guidance sapere aude have the courage to use your own understanding is therefore the motto of the enlightenment laziness and cowardice are the reasons why such a large part of mankind gladly remain minors all their lives long after nature has freed them from external guidance those guardians who have kindly taken supervision upon themselves see to it that the overwhelming majority of mankind among them the entire fair sex should consider the step to maturity not only as hard but as extremely dangerous first these guardians make their domestic cattle stupid and carefully prevent the docile creatures from taking a single step without the leading strings to which they have fastened them then they show them the danger that would threaten them if they should try to walk by themselves now this danger is really not very great after stumbling a few times they would at last learn to walk however examples of such failures intimidate and generally discourage all further attempts dogmas and formulas these mechanical tools designed for reasonable use or rather abuse of his natural gifts are the fetters of an everlasting nonage enlightenment requires nothing but freedom and the most innocent of all that may be called freedom freedom to make public use of one s reason in all matters now i hear the cry from all sides do not argue the officer says do not argue drill the tax collector do not argue pay the pastor do not argue believe only one ruler in the world says argue as much as you please but obey we find restrictions on freedom everywhere but which restriction is harmful to enlightenment which restriction is innocent and which advances enlightenment i reply the public use of one s reason must be free at all times and this alone can bring enlightenment to mankind immanuel kant to all my brothers and sisters in afghanistan share on facebook opens in new window facebook share on x opens in new window x share on bluesky opens in new window bluesky behavioural economics and complexity economics 17 aug 2021 at 22 29 posted in economics 1 comment what is to take the place of neoclassical economics and its neoliberal policy offshoot there is no shortage of candidates grouped under the broad banner of economic heterodoxy some of these successor doctrines behavioral economics and complexity economics are examples of note take the neoclassical orthodoxies as a point of departure they therefore continue to define themselves in relation to those orthodoxies others avoided the gravitational pull altogether or as in the exceptional case of keynes made a long struggle to escape the behaviorists depart from neoclassicism by giving up strict assumptions of rational and maximizing behavior complexity theorists explore the dynamics of interacting agents and recursive functions both achieve a measure of academic reputability by remaining in close dialog with the orthodox mainstream neither pays more than a glancing tribute to earlier generations or other canons of economic thought the model is that of neoclassical offshoots new institutionalism new classical economics new keynesianism that make a vampire practice of colonizing older words and draining them of their previous meaning the dilemma of these offshoots lies in having accepted the false premise of the orthodoxy to which it proposes to serve as the alternative the conceit is of a dispassionate search for timeless truth once again pursued by relaxing restrictive assumptions in the interest of greater realism thus for example in complexity theories agents follow simple rules and end up generating intricate and unpredictable patterns nonlinear recursive functions give the same result the variance of returns turns out to be non normal and so forth but once the starting point is taken to be the neoclassical competitive general equilibrium model these exercises are largely drained of insight and relevance the behaviorists can tell us that real people do not appear to fit well into the portrait of autonomous selfish commodity obsessed pleasure seekers that is economic man the complexity theorists can tell us as arthur 2021 does is that a system constructed from confections of interacting agents may be unstable these things even the dimmest observer of real existing capitalism already knew james galbraith rwer although discounting empirical evidence cannot be the right way to solve economic issues there are still in my opinion a couple of weighty reasons why we just as galbraith perhaps shouldn t be too excited about the so called empirical or behavioural revolution in economics behavioural experiments and laboratory research face the same basic problem as theoretical models they are built on often rather artificial conditions and have...
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