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iting red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday january 31 2015 potential output varies with demand vernengo i think that there is significant evidence for the notion that potential output varies with demand posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday january 30 2015 what vernengo said if i was talking i d be tripping over my tongue but i m writing writing things out of sequence because i can t stop to organize my thoughts i have discovered matias vernengo discovered what fascinates him productivity and demand fascinates me too matias vernengo says technological determinism is widespread the solow model basically suggests that it is technological progress measured incorrectly as total factor productivity tfp that drives growth the same is true of schumpeterian models what is not discussed in most analyses of the technological determinism by conventional and more than a few heterodox authors is the role of demand in creating the conditions for technological change in that case technological change is not the cause of growth but the result as in adam smith s story it is the extent of the market demand that limits the division of labor productivity in modern parlance the idea is known as the kaldor verdoorn law sure enough vernengo says a demand driven story has space for the sort of external supply side effects that allow technology and innovations to thrive a demand driven story does not imply that supply side factors are irrelevant they are simply not the prime movers i think he s onto something that paragraph about technological change got me going reminded me of arnold j toynbee regarding the abandonment of the irrigation system in the tigris euphrates basin toynbee wrote this lapse in a matter of technique was in fact not the cause but the consequence of a decline in population and prosperity in other words the lapse was due to a lack of demand regarding the abandonment of roman roads toynbee wrote when a civilization is in decline it sometimes happens that a particular technique that has been both feasible and profitable during the growth stage now begins to encounter social obstacles and to yield diminishing economic returns if it becomes patently unremunerative it may be deliberately abandoned an obvious case in point is the abandonment of the roman roads in western europe matias vernengo says demand drives technology arnold j toynbee says the lack of demand drives the decline of technology these are two expressions of one thought posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments labels cycle of civilization verdoorn thursday january 29 2015 progress org interview with mason gaffney from 2007 interview with mason gaffney on corruption of economics excerpts the progress report in your latest book the corruption of economics you seem to be exposing an amazingly deep and long standing scandal around the study of economics within the american education system sum it up for us how why and by whom do you think the teaching of economics in america has been corrupted mason gaffney generically it goes back thousands of years every system that divides mankind into rentiers and proles requires a rationale those with leisure have time and resources to provide it sometimes directly but usually through hired guns the need became more acute in the usa during and after the progressive era with its development of the secret ballot and direct democracy voters could no longer be bought or intimidated directly they had to be brainwashed the device used was to replace the older classical political economy quesnay adam smith ricardo mill and henry george with neo classical economics which blurred all distinctions between producers and rentiers tpr they were paid to keep quiet about the land question mg no more than anyone else they lived in a society dominated by landowners adam smith spent his life on the payroll of the duke of buccleuch as tutor for his grace s son landowners were so very secure some of them could let their house intellectuals tweak their noses with radical ideas probably found it entertaining it was later after universal manhood suffrage that the landowners got nasty and conspiratorial and defensive tpr do you believe this purchasing of economic theory still going on today and if so what well known economists do you suspect of being involved with it mg it pervades the culture of the profession most members are looking for grants and promotions to put frosting on their cake they call it responding to the incentive structure giggle nervously and shuffle the blame onto the system it s partly a matter of coopting people by dangling money before them and partly a matter of selecting and supporting those whose ideas are already more simpatico to the major grantors it s hard to tell the difference so it s hard to say who s been corrupted and who corrupted himself at an early age tpr how can my readers find out if what you re saying is really true name the most widely used economics textbooks in american universities right now and what they teach that is an obvious lie for the benefit of landed interests mg i no longer use textbooks much paul samuelson robert solow peter mieszkowski theodore schultz and edwin mills for example casually pronounce that land rent is only 5 or so of total income so a single land tax could not support government as we know it they offer no support for this except to echo each other they simply ignore the few careful studies of the matter as by michael hudson allen manvel myself and steven cord that show much higher figures tpr how do you like our chances professor do you think earth is going to be a loser planet or will the good guys somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat mg a bit of each keep hassling and things will be a bit better than if you gave up again i left a lot out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday january 28 2015 mason gaffney the canal boom google led me to the u s canal boom and bust 1820 1842 notes by mason gaffney from may 1993 updated 2009 the canal boom which crested in 1836 37 was one of several in u s history forming roughly an 18 year cycle the slump when it came was synchronized nationwide the ensuing slump and crash even more so indeed the cycle was worldwide although the data included herein is only for the u s after the manic peak of 1836 depression was communicated everywhere through some universal medium the synchronization was remarkable considering this was before even the telegraph this synchronizing medium was the capital market which turns booms on and off by advancing or denying funds after 1836 momentum carried some works forward regardless of crashing demand and tight funds by 1842 most building had ground to a halt following the trough of 1842 production and employment slowly picked up new steam railroads were the new magic aided along by federal land grants after 1850 before long it all built up to a new peak and crash in 1857 i left a lot out posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday january 27 2015 the spice of life maynard writes nevertheless circumstances can develop in which even a large increase in the quantity of money may exert a comparatively small influence on the rate of interest for a large increase in the quantity of money may cause so much uncertainty about the future that liquidity preferences due to the precautionary motive may be strengthened whilst opinion about the future of the rate of interest may be so unanimous that a small change in present rates may cause a mass movement into cash it is interesting that the stability of the system and its sensitiveness to changes in the quantity of money should be so dependent on the existence of a variety of opinion about what is uncertain best of all that we should know the future but if not then if we are to control the activity of the economic system by changing the quantity of money it is important that opinions should differ posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments monday january 26 2015 phases of the business cycle something i found while looking through my old notes on the schumpeter essay in readings in business cycle theory from a file i wrote or last edited back in 1996 schumpeter writing in 1935 described a cycle in four phases we speak today of four phases as well but they are not the same today we speak of a period of growth a peak a period of recession and a trough pronounced to rhyme with cow or low point schumpeter by way of contrast emphasized the importance of the smoothed trend line about which the cycle varied he described a period of prosperity followed by a period of recession both above the trend line then depression as the decline continued below the trend line and finally a period of revival as the economy climbed back toward its trend line for schumpeter all four phases are time periods with duration for us today two of the phases have duration and two are turning points for schumpeter the cycle is like a sine wave beginning and ending at its average value for us the cycle is measured peak to peak like a cosine wave or trough to trough bottom to bottom posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday january 25 2015 getting the story straight the marxists internet archive long my source when quoting keynes also offers geoffrey pilling s the crisis of keynesian economics i just looked at it for the first time i didn t read much but this stood out right away writing of the decade following the end of the war j k galbraith said within a decade after 1945 the belief that the modern economy was subject to a deficiency in demand and that offsetting government action would be required was close to becoming the new orthodoxy that s geoffrey pilling s date in brackets there not mine by 1950 then give or take the idea that aggregate demand was insufficient was pretty well accepted among economists and galbraith adds economists thought offsetting government action was required that s important because it explains why federal spending remained high it explains why government spending did not drop back to a low level as it was before the great depression and two world wars graph 1 from brad delong s fiscal policy in the shadow of the great depression pdf 21 pages the increase in federal spending from less than five percent of gdp to near 20 percent was not an accident nor was it a conspiracy liberal or otherwise it was economic policy designed to boost economic performance and to create both jobs and profits through free market processes golly posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday january 24 2015 comparative economic policy outcomes tom hickey links to russia capital outflow is actually companies reducing debt at russia insider due to sanctions instead of rolling over their debt like everyone else does russian companies are forced to repay it also means that unlike everyone else they re going to have very little debt and from the article central bank of russia released full year 2014 capital outflows figures prompting cheerful chatter from the us officials and academics gleefully loading the demise of the russian economy in simple terms usd 118 billion or 78 percent of the catastrophic capital flight out of russia in 2014 was down due to debt redemptions in banking and corporate sectors not investors fleeing or depositors taking a run but partially forced debt repayments m ost of the capital flight that western analysts decry goes to improve russian balance sheets and reduce russian external debt that can t be too bad right not too bad i don t know why hey external debt can be a problem sure any debt can be a problem if there s too much of it but i don t know why the emphasis is always on external debt or government debt and never on private debt never on the big one tom s link caught my eye just the other day i made a prediction the first of the great powers to reduce private debt will be the world s next hegemon could it be russia don t laugh i know you want to laugh it s a natural response given the cheerful chatter and the gleeful gloating we ve been exposed to from the idiots in our idiot boxes just remember it remember you want to laugh at the thought that russia could be the world s next hegemon see where china is today remember where china was when nixon decided to be friends it would be like taking candy from a baby doing business with china not any more russia i don t know i don t make predictions i never make predictions that was a fluke that one anyway it wasn t so much a prediction as a way to present a concept maybe the russian economy will get bogged down in its own internal debt as we have as japan did as china yet may it s a very common fate maybe russia will be crushed by debt maybe they won t you want to know who will be the hegemon i want you to know that it depends on comparative policy outcomes and debt minimization the first to reduce private debt becomes the first that is ready for vigorous growth posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments friday january 23 2015 go billy bill mitchell 6 the fire sector is the the most commonly cited source of wealth for billionaires on this list in other words the wealth has been predominantly accumulated through non productive activities i like that bold terminology posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday january 22 2015 disputations from discourse on method at adelaide edu i have never observed that any truth before unknown has been brought to light by the disputations that are practised in the schools for while each strives for the victory each is much more occupied in making the best of mere verisimilitude than in weighing the reasons on both sides of the question verisimilitude the appearance of being true or real posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday january 21 2015 ebooks adelaide i recently found ebooks at adelaide edu turned up in a google search https ebooks adelaide edu au nicely formatted a pleasure to have on the screen recommended posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday january 20 2015 methods versus premisses syll says the university of greenwich shows the way he quotes sara gorgoni from the rethinking economics blog but syll omitted gorgoni s opening the 24th of november was an important day for the economists at the university of greenwich when four programmes were successfully reviewed the revised programmes were commended for the enthusiasm and development of new material by the teac...
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