Meta tags:
Headings (most frequently used words):
to, movement, and, the, daily, news, resources, iran, of, campaign, war, on, is, urgent, end, year, fundraising, stop, venezuela, for, coast, we, trump, reckless, threatening, global, economic, collapse, featured, podcasts, transcript, call, action, us, israeli, defend, sovereignty, return, stolen, wealth, full, quake, recovery, support, political, prisoners, president, nicolas, maduro, first, lady, cilia, flores, new, targets, wealthy, increasing, use, private, jets, ukraine, demonstrates, it, mercenary, western, imperialism, from, people, say, no, surveillance, infrastructure, uss, lincoln, carrier, crew, relatives, rage, at, pentagon, bosses, know, what, must, do, protect, planet, trade, unionists, launch, solidarity, organization, with, filipino, labor, don, blame, victim, saudi, arabia, forms, 14, state, coalition, ansar, allah, decolonizing, thanksgiving, supporting, indigenous, peoples,
Text of the page (most frequently used words):
the (530), and (262), that (175), they (79), this (76), are (75), iran (66), but (58), not (52), war (50), has (48), for (47), have (44), was (43), you (42), from (33), trump (31), all (31), going (31), what (30), with (30), been (30), there (28), think (28), states (27), about (27), will (26), because (25), just (25), now (21), out (21), oil (21), united (20), saudi (20), which (20), these (19), resistance (18), hedges (18), their (18), israel (17), much (17), region (17), very (17), how (16), more (16), chris (16), into (16), would (16), hormuz (16), also (15), say (15), mean (15), sort (15), some (15), like (14), our (14), america (14), alastair (14), really (14), crooke (14), missiles (14), news (13), years (13), crisis (13), arabia (13), state (13), military (13), can (13), iraq (13), could (13), west (13), its (13), one (13), time (13), between (13), said (13), were (12), back (12), want (12), see (12), trying (12), pressure (11), attack (11), two (10), end (10), economy (10), people (10), washington (10), saying (10), bank (10), any (10), gulf (10), whole (10), other (10), iraqi (10), new (9), over (9), who (9), put (9), hashd (9), big (9), iranians (9), long (9), houthis (9), sea (9), then (9), middle (9), markets (9), control (9), daily (8), don (8), through (8), resources (8), them (8), iranian (8), course (8), part (8), come (8), quite (8), had (8), strait (8), agreement (8), after (8), being (7), before (7), too (7), donate (7), attacks (7), administration (7), change (7), syria (7), infrastructure (7), palestinians (7), off (7), report (7), won (7), air (7), let (7), destroyed (7), only (7), well (7), clear (7), deal (7), completely (7), even (7), forces (7), sense (7), attacked (7), little (7), red (7), used (7), east (7), way (7), media (6), movement (6), popular (6), global (6), newsletter (6), world (6), gaza (6), wars (6), stop (6), killing (6), election (6), taking (6), when (6), another (6), things (6), water (6), weapons (6), without (6), many (6), lebanon (6), possible (6), point (6), actually (6), something (6), try (6), where (6), during (6), side (6), same (6), both (6), under (6), major (6), missile (6), still (6), level (6), vessels (6), negotiations (6), email (5), campaign (5), create (5), across (5), latin (5), venezuela (5), government (5), data (5), power (5), refinery (5), coast (5), podcasts (5), recent (5), place (5), why (5), make (5), fired (5), right (5), percent (5), wants (5), different (5), set (5), down (5), triggered (5), zero (5), moment (5), talk (5), process (5), threats (5), far (5), force (5), saudis (5), yes (5), his (5), oman (5), period (5), threatening (5), hegemony (5), able (5), japan (5), phase (5), talks (5), again (5), open (5), may (5), corridor (5), late (4), here (4), due (4), online (4), help (4), costs (4), year (4), organize (4), home (4), range (4), support (4), find (4), energy (4), finance (4), rights (4), surveillance (4), indigenous (4), russia (4), low (4), days (4), know (4), carrier (4), lincoln (4), brought (4), times (4), might (4), plants (4), provide (4), conflict (4), terms (4), refineries (4), small (4), country (4), moved (4), others (4), million (4), cities (4), already (4), either (4), egypt (4), matrix (4), yemen (4), situation (4), plan (4), main (4), become (4), getting (4), 000 (4), get (4), money (4), short (4), ship (4), saw (4), facilities (4), leader (4), behalf (4), hit (4), element (4), irgc (4), first (4), hours (4), mandeb (4), price (4), economic (4), preserving (4), understanding (4), proactive (4), passage (4), mou (4), petroleum (4), launched (4), school (4), wtf (4), caribbean (4), clearing (4), fog (4), independent (3), facebook (3), twitter (3), sign (3), digest (3), fiscal (3), sponsor (3), unable (3), nearly (3), your (3), cover (3), operating (3), keep (3), donations (3), strategize (3), educate (3), resist (3), provides (3), around (3), campaigns (3), use (3), instead (3), making (3), police (3), ten (3), day (3), doing (3), paid (3), corporate (3), building (3), private (3), 21st (3), century (3), centers (3), should (3), must (3), protect (3), planet (3), says (3), anti (3), activists (3), weekly (3), thought (3), disarm (3), hezbollah (3), thing (3), happen (3), entire (3), interconnected (3), happens (3), desalination (3), strike (3), fuel (3), purification (3), comes (3), easily (3), coming (3), along (3), border (3), kind (3), smotrich (3), call (3), finally (3), doesn (3), turned (3), agendas (3), seems (3), take (3), future (3), netanyahu (3), need (3), mentioned (3), influence (3), involved (3), fighting (3), past (3), abu (3), dhabi (3), hot (3), profound (3), supply (3), action (3), tanker (3), port (3), aramco (3), didn (3), shi (3), nationalists (3), supreme (3), fragile (3), security (3), wasn (3), groups (3), proxy (3), did (3), towards (3), interrupt (3), mercenaries (3), last (3), bit (3), effects (3), within (3), dollar (3), keeping (3), knows (3), japanese (3), yen (3), important (3), closure (3), bab (3), ground (3), those (3), inability (3), targets (3), estimated (3), 100 (3), overall (3), basically (3), distillates (3), aircraft (3), operation (3), closed (3), tankers (3), traffic (3), deceit (3), until (3), roman (3), stage (3), though (3), ceasefire (3), technical (3), president (3), route (3), allowed (3), since (3), bury (3), systems (3), strategic (3), latest (2), raise (2), funds (2), bills (2), pile (2), needed (2), monthly (2), alive (2), urgent (2), fundraising (2), tax (2), deductible (2), justice (2), consider (2), class (2), donald (2), elections (2), climate (2), china (2), strikes (2), system (2), human (2), ukraine (2), health (2), democracy (2), pipelines (2), imperialism (2), protests (2), criminal (2), worker (2), sanctions (2), feel (2), later (2), today (2), acknowledge (2), focus (2), pieces (2), taxpayers (2), subsidize (2), wages (2), giants (2), flock (2), mccarthyism (2), cuba (2), crosshairs (2), forms (2), coalition (2), ansar (2), allah (2), close (2), ice (2), face (2), growing (2), union (2), contract (2), run (2), eight (2), blame (2), victim (2), continue (2), indiana (2), win (2), inside (2), against (2), trade (2), labor (2), tent (2), house (2), seriously (2), calls (2), mutiny (2), aboard (2), abraham (2), uss (2), crew (2), relatives (2), rage (2), pentagon (2), bosses (2), events (2), receive (2), clean (2), popularresistance (2), org (2), becoming (2), soon (2), great (2), thank (2), produced (2), show (2), understood (2), attempt (2), threaten (2), done (2), complicated (2), binary (2), absolutely (2), parts (2), understand (2), decision (2), taken (2), stand (2), thrown (2), seventy (2), uae (2), took (2), throughout (2), does (2), destroy (2), longer (2), services (2), slow (2), tactical (2), nuclear (2), means (2), vulnerable (2), less (2), ways (2), exactly (2), match (2), somewhere (2), volatile (2), particularly (2), palestinian (2), consequences (2), bring (2), directly (2), striking (2), northern (2), territories (2), ready (2), include (2), prepared (2), effectively (2), structures (2), dispersed (2), egyptians (2), jordanians (2), prevent (2), push (2), jordan (2), available (2), smaller (2), separate (2), got (2), solution (2), type (2), lives (2), october (2), sides (2), certain (2), fire (2), talking (2), problem (2), look (2), happened (2), conflicts (2), haven (2), shia (2), sharia (2), potential (2), correctly (2), perhaps (2), mount (2), huge (2), defeat (2), ended (2), anyway (2), hasn (2), hotter (2), misjudgment (2), caspian (2), kurdish (2), leaders (2), attacking (2), reports (2), failed (2), kurds (2), seen (2), responsible (2), probably (2), numbers (2), sunnis (2), proportion (2), always (2), western (2), putting (2), february (2), death (2), religious (2), retribution (2), movements (2), maybe (2), ukrainian (2), struck (2), clearly (2), yet (2), running (2), believed (2), yanbu (2), quickly (2), pipeline (2), fields (2), signs (2), moving (2), borders (2), correct (2), chinese (2), described (2), everything (2), collapse (2), head (2), petrodollar (2), credit (2), finances (2), wall (2), street (2), next (2), threat (2), gone (2), financial (2), cheap (2), center (2), difficult (2), answer (2), bail (2), buy (2), treasuries (2), interest (2), rates (2), borrow (2), profits (2), zombie (2), ultimate (2), bond (2), market (2), therefore (2), ask (2), wondered (2), address (2), necessarily (2), increase (2), funeral (2), mood (2), changed (2), memory (2), civilizational (2), dominant (2), thousands (2), called (2), young (2), streets (2), ultimately (2), inevitable (2), better (2), position (2), than (2), realities (2), obvious (2), mountain (2), granite (2), american (2), bombing (2), leverage (2), second (2), idea (2), simply (2), words (2), while (2), increasingly (2), capacity (2), crucial (2), fees (2), billion (2), thinking (2), exporting (2), sees (2), light (2), almost (2), diesel (2), kerosene (2), 250 (2), believe (2), six (2), enter (2), leadership (2), real (2), law (2), facing (2), few (2), certainly (2), empire (2), emperors (2), loss (2), facts (2), introduction (2), rightly (2), complete (2), pattern (2), manipulation (2), exit (2), question (2), never (2), escalation (2), anything (2), posture (2), lifted (2), products (2), fully (2), passed (2), committee (2), discussing (2), irrelevant (2), mention (2), charge (2), straits (2), although (2), administered (2), omanis (2), produce (2), shipping (2), intention (2), opened (2), example (2), list (2), depleted (2), wanted (2), dominance (2), discuss (2), former (2), diplomat (2), served (2), hamas (2), islamic (2), threatened (2), essence (2), islamist (2), revolution (2), cannot (2), afford (2), israeli (2), routes (2), depletion (2), reserve (2), lowest (2), depletions (2), stockpile (2), ballistic (2), expended (2), large (2), munitions (2), asia (2), options (2), describes (2), rss (2), youtube (2), store (2), search (2), kevin (2), zeese (2), emerging (2), fund (2), subscribe, outlets, suppressed, dropped, corporations, google, miss, alliance, 225, 26th, suite, tucson, 85713, stream, participate, coalitions, broad, issues, advertising, underwriting, work, rely, please, donation, website, value, assetto, corsa, mods, struggle, canada, education, immigration, capitalism, covid, environment, legal, care, militarism, brutality, palestine, food, agriculture, prisons, racism, abuse, genocide, kingdom, history, jobs, joe, biden, unions, tag, cloud, lessons, occupy, reminds, struggles, distracts, decolonizing, thanksgiving, supporting, peoples, board, resisted, weaponized, development, excerpt, camp, aren, pushback, blue, chip, slot, attendants, landslide, nlrb, grassroots, revolt, carbon, capture, domestic, workers, built, philadelphia, unionists, launch, solidarity, organization, filipino, living, architecture, design, journalists, readers, started, pittsburgh, permanently, pedestrianise, central, belfast, following, festival, month, lockout, corona, queens, round, ups, greet, kamala, harris, noise, demo, featured, leave, field, empty, keeps, date, send, occasional, announces, profit, everyone, stay, touch, artist, activist, community, creative, notices, mines, containing, links, most, articles, review, videos, rebuilding, necessitates, forever, became, legally, unaccountable, earth, greatest, enemy, epstein, network, privatizing, diego, thomas, max, chrishedges, substack, com, themselves, okay, militia, complex, resolve, simple, silver, bullet, calculus, mind, hear, defeated, broken, uncertain, anywhere, mistaken, blow, interlinked, somehow, connected, throw, eighty, instantly, riyadh, instance, depends, humanitarian, wage, citizens, quote, demand, amounts, electricity, impossible, survive, break, incendiary, mass, else, erupt, south, galilee, expecting, expect, underline, often, misunderstand, strong, isn, israelis, centrally, located, concentrated, whereas, precisely, anticipation, sinai, ethnic, cleansing, openly, advocated, voluntary, transfer, decide, huddled, fetid, overcrowded, third, seized, play, confrontation, possibilities, together, makes, lebanese, syrian, circumstances, possibility, comprehensive, double, motive, provoke, fleeing, preparing, secret, existential, violencece, loggerheads, standing, aim, remember, ago, gave, likud, listen, arabs, implement, operational, encourage, disarmament, villages, lie, turkey, considerable, damascus, unopposed, reaction, near, mixed, black, swan, flying, hate, word, messianic, shall, bengvir, ben, gvir, temple, exodus, formidable, delivered, army, egyptian, soldiers, present, anxious, revenue, plate, ukrainians, nature, dynamic, kurdistan, assassinating, lines, ammunition, revive, invade, establish, mini, preemptive, gas, drones, intense, reason, blamed, exacerbate, kursk, erbil, listeners, approximately, exact, roughly, split, largest, referred, proxies, dispute, met, straightforwardly, strongly, mothership, ism, tagged, majority, accepted, followed, assassinated, 29th, source, emulation, marja, deeply, angry, given, leeway, contained, attach, importance, heating, mobilizing, sent, lies, adjacent, hearing, repaired, dancing, singing, terminal, pumping, transports, jahan, shaabi, denied, likely, celebration, solemn, marks, anniversary, begun, purge, name, corruption, group, onto, closer, contain, imam, hussein, karbala, arba, armed, funded, key, uncertainty, recurrence, hadhramaut, province, assembled, southern, images, fled, houthi, shaken, foundations, obviously, allies, consulted, launching, terrific, precision, carry, presumably, russian, satellites, intelligence, cat, bag, came, best, meeting, ever, wonderful, nail, structure, provision, underwrites, presence, fight, highest, priority, construct, financialized, plunked, monitor, amazon, recently, give, straight, quantitative, unknown, least, falling, precipitously, bessent, collapsing, currency, having, resort, sell, euros, order, trillion, strange, decades, such, boon, cheaply, lend, expensively, effortless, made, suddenly, rising, economies, enough, debts, bankrupt, calling, companies, showing, further, weakening, exercises, repayment, prop, prolonged, atmospherics, appetite, quick, reflected, treated, respect, discourtesy, scum, tough, mentality, amongst, revenge, shouting, gatherings, funerals, three, each, producing, four, five, mark, settled, predicament, trapped, pressures, bite, standoff, damage, pickaxe, whatever, buried, thousand, meters, bounce, bombs, wouldn, half, hour, afterwards, firing, site, shifting, seeing, stance, wait, till, lined, quiet, extending, extremely, him, explodes, adnok, company, stopped, response, feels, cards, charges, changing, looking, lacking, equation, supplying, fracking, permian, heaviest, tar, sitting, ones, drastically, asking, barrel, higher, backwardation, reasons, sure, takes, lot, aviation, 15s, 35s, consume, gallon, refueled, miles, barrels, load, stopping, exported, behind, widely, regarded, faction, regards, deliberately, purpose, signed, serious, intent, conclusion, block, respected, view, original, supposed, carried, phases, pretty, unprovoked, aggression, international, verified, reparations, frozen, assets, released, guarantee, midterms, poll, white, desperately, interim, limp, months, november, competing, concerns, accusations, insider, trading, suppose, gaul, germanic, tribes, beat, legions, triumphal, march, city, rome, shellacked, vein, reality, arrive, settlement, dismissive, using, laughing, setting, paper, futures, sold, monday, detailed, intended, document, develop, issue, forth, manipulating, concern, inflation, above, beginning, preparation, early, career, coaching, loser, winner, pointed, determination, start, require, commitments, upfront, advance, roy, cohn, none, according, established, blockade, export, regulations, supervises, finished, dilemma, accepts, accept, couple, secondly, seven, mooted, fines, stick, rules, discussions, whether, corridors, outward, inward, shut, goes, omani, shoreline, exits, mining, fact, morning, tried, damaged, passing, amount, passages, faced, proposal, controls, details, negotiating, team, remit, tehran, forbid, majlis, teams, undoubtedly, mediators, phone, opening, cost, cautiously, read, remarkable, achieved, degraded, capability, extent, utterly, represents, airspace, ability, carpet, bomb, enemies, freedom, wished, electronic, components, found, production, mosaic, effective, reading, underlines, contrast, achieve, joining, current, british, working, advisor, special, envoy, helping, lead, efforts, truces, jihad, instrumental, establishing, 2002, author, analyzes, ascendancy, begin, massive, once, retreated, sunny, assessment, nor, walking, apocalyptic, obliterate, april, 7th, civilization, die, tonight, immediately, imposed, deadline, backed, announcing, week, retreats, eroded, credibility, distanced, skeptical, proposed, assumes, trust, prolong, suffering, tremendous, fars, agency, reporting, parliamentary, reviewing, preliminary, bill, bar, hostile, transiting, jointly, formalized, waterway, whose, vital, research, shows, 1983, leaving, crude, add, wrest, measure, prosecute, intercept, cruise, 190, 370, 160, 360, thaad, 290, 300, patriot, 060, 430, canceled, planned, scale, cancellation, follows, quantities, critical, began, 28th, tomahawk, tomahawks, arsenal, apparently, jassam, prsm, virtually, exhausting, inventory, numbered, 410, transcript, numerous, pushing, ahead, untouched, positioning, troops, fate, millions, stake, scrambles, risks, refers, destruction, necessary, sustain, countries, scramble, adjust, sight, fall, expects, reliable, peace, significant, percentage, costing, tens, billions, dollars, lowered, reserves, forty, blocked, exports, previously, traded, transit, rocked, sending, debt, inflamed, authored, episode, explore, wide, reaching, geopolitical, ramifications, remain, forced, multiple, walk, forum, rumble, podcast, platforms, interview, breaks, conflagrations, seemingly, reckless, video, demonstrates, mercenary, wealthy, increasing, jets, political, prisoners, nicolas, maduro, lady, cilia, flores, return, stolen, wealth, full, quake, recovery, defend, sovereignty, skip, content,
Text of the page (random words):
ck on iran this cancellation follows reports that the u s has expended large quantities of critical munitions since the war began on february 28th these depletions include tomahawk long range missiles that are fired from sea at ground targets of the estimated 3 000 tomahawks in the u s arsenal 1 000 have apparently been used some 1 100 jassam air launched long range missiles out of about 4 000 have also been used in the war some 40 to 70 prsm ground launched long range missiles of which the u s only had 90 in its stockpile have been fired on iran virtually exhausting the entire inventory the ship launched ballistic sm 3 missile which costs 28 million numbered around 410 before the war the u s may have used as many as 250 the sm six also ship launched is used to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles somewhere between 190 and 370 have been used from a stockpile of 1 160 of the some 360 thaad anti ballistic missile systems as many as 290 have been fired on iran and finally of the estimated 2 300 patriot missiles between 1 060 and 1 430 have been expended the depletion of vital weapons systems is not the only problem facing the trump administration but also the depletion of the strategic petroleum oil reserve bank of america global research shows that the level of the u s strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since 1983 leaving the country with 43 days of crude oil supply add to these depletions the inability of the u s to wrest control of the strait of hormuz from iran and you have a war that by any measure the u s can no longer afford to prosecute iran s fars news agency is reporting that an iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar us israeli and other hostile vessels from transiting the strait iran and oman which now jointly control the strait said they had formalized shipping routes through the waterway whose closure has triggered of course the global energy crisis trump s sunny assessment of the war is not new nor is the walking back of apocalyptic threats to obliterate iran for example on april 7th he threatened that a whole civilization will die tonight never to be brought back again if iran did not immediately open the strait and then two hours later before his imposed deadline he backed down instead announcing a two week ceasefire this pattern of threats and retreats has eroded trump s credibility it has distanced an already skeptical iran from any proposed negotiations iran assumes correctly it cannot trust anything the president says and it also knows that the u s cannot afford to prolong the conflict without suffering tremendous military and economic costs joining me to discuss the state of the current war is alastair crooke a former british diplomat who served for many years in the middle east working as a security advisor to the eu special envoy to the middle east as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truces between hamas islamic jihad and other palestinian resistance groups he was instrumental in establishing the 2002 ceasefire between hamas and israel he is also the author of resistance the essence of the islamist revolution which analyzes the ascendancy of islamic movements in the middle east so alastair let s begin with where we are at this moment as i mentioned in the introduction trump had threatened a massive bombing campaign once again he retreated you have this agreement between oman and iran just set the stage for us if you can alastair crooke certainly i thought though one of the things was quite striking you read off this list of missiles and weapons that have been depleted during the course of the war and what is quite remarkable is how little that has achieved it has not degraded iran s missile capability to any great extent it has not brought a change in posture by iran it has failed utterly to change the war and it really i think represents the end of a way of fighting over the period we ve seen since the second world war the west has completely moved over to the idea of control of airspace control of ability to carpet bomb its enemies and believed it had complete freedom to go where it wanted when it wanted how it wished and that s come to an end and what has brought it to an end is basically cheap electronic components that have allowed states to produce missiles and so iran has actually found the answer to this you bury your missiles you bury the production systems you bury the leadership it was called a mosaic system but it s been very effective and i think you re reading off of that list underlines just how much it is both israel and the united states say that iran has the same capacity in terms of the missiles they don t have an air force but they have missile air dominance at this stage over the gulf and in contrast to the air dominance that the united states has not been able to fully achieve you ask where we are where we are is these talks they re really just to be absolutely clear they re just talks technical talks still at the moment they are the technical teams discussing the straits between oman america is not involved in it although undoubtedly certain mediators will be sort of on the phone all the time to the omanis but my understanding is basically this there s no intention on the part of iran to open hormuz in the sense of opening it to all traffic at zero cost there s no intention to do that it may be opened very cautiously for example to chinese vessels and tankers but it s not going to be opened in the sense of as it used to be secondly the iranians are going to charge fees seven percent is mooted and they are also going to charge 20 percent fines for any vessels that do not stick to the rules set by the new administration for the hormuz straits i think what we re going to see is and the discussions are about the question of whether there are two corridors or one corridor an outward corridor and an inward corridor at the moment there is if you like just one corridor because the iranians have shut the corridor that goes along the coast of the omani shoreline and exits that way by mining it so that one is effectively closed in fact i think just this morning an abu dhabi tanker tried to use that exit and was attacked with missiles and damaged and has turned back so that is still not operating the northern route is under irgc control i think some vessels are passing to china but the amount of passages is very few and so i think that what trump will be faced with is the proposal that iran controls hormuz that it will control passage in and out although passage may be administered by the omanis under irgc ultimate control in other words all the details of vessels will have to be passed to the irgc before they are allowed to enter this route and the process is still going to be completely administered and it is going to be closed this is not part of the negotiating team s remit the majlis in tehran seems to be saying that they are going to produce a law that would forbid in any future time after the war is over that shipping either from the united states or israel will not be allowed passage through hormuz my understanding is none of this is going to come into operation according to the iranians until after an agreement after the war is ended after it s been established that there really is a ceasefire that the us blockade is lifted after sanctions have been lifted on petroleum and oil products from iran for export only at that point will these new regulations fully come into being but this still hasn t been as my understanding put to the supreme leader and passed by the committee that supervises the security they re still discussing it at the technical level and so it may be a little while until the talks are finished but i think it will face mr trump with the very obvious dilemma i mean either he accepts that this is a loss maybe he can accept it we had mr president in just recent hours saying well hormuz it s actually irrelevant i mean in a couple of years we won t need hormuz anyway he didn t mention the red sea and he didn t mention bab el mandeb but he just said hormuz might be irrelevant is this the beginning of preparation for an exit it s too early to say who knows but the question is is trump able after his entire career after his coaching by roy cohn never be a loser you always must be a winner and is he able to stand this or will he try another military action even though as you rightly pointed out that it seems there is really not much point to another military escalation because it won t change anything in terms it won t change the posture of iran of its determination to control hormuz and they are not about to open it and even to start negotiations they would require from the united states that they make commitments upfront in advance and only then would negotiations be even possible but overall as you said in the introduction quite rightly that iran just doesn t believe it s possible to arrive at a complete settlement with mr trump with the administration it is dismissive of the mou it sees that the united states is just using this pattern of threats and then talk of a deal it s all about the markets it s all about manipulation of the oil price and the iranians are laughing at this now now they re setting out pieces of paper which show how many futures were sold just before monday and the whole manipulation is being detailed by the iranians and so for them the mou has become much less important because they see that it s really not intended to be a document from which negotiations could develop could issue forth because really it is all about manipulating markets because trump s main concern really now is markets and the oil price and inflation and above all the bond market chris hedges well you have all these accusations of insider trading within the trump administration it is possible i suppose that like the late roman empire the emperors in the late roman empire would go up to gaul and the germanic tribes would beat back the roman legions and then the emperors would just stage a triumphal march through the city of rome even though they d been shellacked that is very much in trump s vein so reality and loss and defeat may be facts but they re not necessarily facts that trump will acknowledge i want to talk a little bit about the agreement because the original agreement was supposed to be carried out in phases i think it s pretty clear that iran will not sign something like that again this was an unprovoked war it was a criminal war of aggression under international law and verified by the head of the un and others and iran wants reparations it wants its frozen assets about 100 billion released and that s the one side and then of course it wants a guarantee that it will not be attacked again and on the other side trump is facing the midterms his poll numbers are very low and i think it s clear the white house desperately wants even if it s an interim agreement some kind of an agreement that they can limp through with for the next few months certainly until november and i wondered if you can address those two competing concerns alastair crooke yes and i think what you described is almost a phase of the war that is now behind us in the sense that that mou is now widely regarded there s a small faction that doesn t see it in this way but overall the leadership regards the mou as a deceit it was a deceit that was deliberately done because the purpose of it was simply to get hormuz open as quickly as possible and so it was signed up without any real serious intent of taking it to any sort of conclusion so i mean there is no real sense that this is the building block towards an agreement that will be respected by trump it was in their view a deceit and therefore we are in a different phase i think that phase is to increase the pressure on trump by first of all in the markets in terms of the red sea is now closed the houthis again have been attacking saudi tankers that are trying to enter and go to the yanbu port in the red sea to load oil and stopping that so there s very little traffic it s open to other traffic but not to saudi tankers so the saudis i think this is the first time that they ve exported no oil at all during this period zero oil chris hedges and just to interrupt to interrupt alastair i believe the saudis were exporting about six million barrels a day through the red sea is that correct alastair crooke that s it and it s now down to zero overall it s now down to zero and the uae has not been exporting oil during this period either and so the main element is that iran sees it as leverage because you mentioned if you like the effects on the oil markets but actually what is so important is really the type of oil that is lacking that is crucial to their thinking in the equation because what iran and the hormuz strait was supplying were basically the middle distillates of oil not light oil america has light oil from the fracking fields and permian and so on and venezuela has the ultimately heaviest oil almost like tar sitting on the other side but the middle distillates are the ones that provide diesel and kerosene for aircraft and those are in drastically short supply the asking price in refineries to get a barrel today of middle distillates is much higher than in the future the markets are in backwardation the crisis is in diesel and in kerosene and that s one of the reasons i m not sure we d see a major attack on iran because aircraft if you re going to do a major air operation it takes a lot of aviation fuel to mount that sort of operation f 15s f 35s consume it by the gallon and have to be refueled after 250 miles or so so i think one part of this is going to be the leverage the second part that we re going to see and change is also the idea of being shifting and this is what we re seeing in this phase iran has moved to a more proactive stance they re not simply going to wait till the united states attacks and then consider or have already lined up the targets that it s going to attack in retribution they are keeping up a quiet level of proactive attacks on the united states on gulf states and at the moment israel is not involved but they are keeping up a level of military proactive force in other words extending the war making it extremely difficult for trump to say he s won the war to put pressure on him and at the same time not to go so far that it explodes the whole situation into a big war but to continue to attack vessels as i say abu dhabi tanker adnok the state oil company was attacked just in the recent hours while these talks are going on in oman they haven t stopped and it s not in response to an american attack so proactive attacks and the sense increasingly is that trump is under pressure and they think that iran feels it has the cards as trump calls it that they are in a better position and that they see that if they are going into a long war with the united st...
|
