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e views of it and the most important thing here s a longer look at the debt problem here s a short one on economic policy some surprising trends and a few unusual policy recommendations how d we get into this mess read policy venn and policies of the venn overlap still with me read a matter of life and death and for an overview download my 12 page pdf art s vigor page debt accumulation two new versions of an economic model showing how accumulating debt hurts economic growth 1 jerry s stand alone php version 2 my googledocs file mine brings up a preview window click the use this template button to open it introductory post google translate blog archive 2018 31 january 31 2017 274 december 31 november 26 october 21 september 23 august 27 july 21 june 17 may 21 april 13 march 25 february 25 january 24 2016 318 december 26 november 20 october 30 september 27 august 29 july 17 june 30 may 24 april 30 march 30 february 30 january 25 2015 283 december 7 november 11 october 21 september 23 august 26 july 27 june 26 may 30 april 25 march 28 february 27 long story live long and prosper i think cyclical burping it up again labor and nonlabor costs excellent excellent on the decline of international competitiveness rousseau wachtel 2008 it s not that complicated credit use is good for growth but accumulated debt the mortgage forgiveness debt relief act and debt victor ehrenberg from solon to socrates greece now and then your choice what would you do arnold j toynbee on the big endogenous social cycle callahan and hoffmann on endogenous social cycles like the grave of a zombie after this morning s drubbing of milton friedman wasting our time new puppy the politics of what if the decrease in price does him no good because t a pretty pebble debt forgiveness in croatia there and back again he s not sure which but it doesn t matter january 32 2014 374 december 25 november 25 october 26 september 30 august 34 july 35 june 32 may 34 april 33 march 35 february 28 january 37 2013 412 december 33 november 31 october 35 september 32 august 33 july 36 june 31 may 36 april 39 march 40 february 31 january 35 2012 476 december 38 november 35 october 51 september 41 august 35 july 39 june 37 may 31 april 38 march 36 february 44 january 51 2011 571 december 44 november 38 october 41 september 53 august 54 july 52 june 50 may 45 april 54 march 46 february 37 january 57 2010 361 december 51 november 43 october 47 september 43 august 35 july 39 june 31 may 9 april 8 march 12 february 23 january 20 2009 79 december 17 november 10 october 14 september 20 august 3 july 7 june 4 april 1 march 1 february 1 january 1 links the 12 pages pdf html scribd money as credit paul krugman john mason gavin kennedy crisis timeline 1 crisis timeline 2 statistical abstracts measuringworth bea economic accounts bls inflation jobs flow of funds debt st louis fed fred money stock 1947 58 economagic usgovernmentspending top tax rates recession dates corp taxes 2006 irs tax data pk sources historicalstatistics org historical charts perot charts mark wieczorek the secret economist econompic john williams sgs crystal bull aquinum s razor flavianopolis william f hummell ecometry the l curve businomics blog on banking crises cybereconomics tim duy like a father to me worthwhile canadian the skeptical optimist nextblog better of thought action the troublesome economist the candid blogger blended purple frozen arctic tundra truth addicts anon jbpeebles mayday books dredd blog dolor s rants the 40 year old freshman thinking on the margin redonomics broad oak unsettling economics irrational expectations theory2life prac spoiler tips vin s read more faq s image host a very nice menu www w3 schools bloogger help image test and t2 blogger sentral html color codes google translate link within a page supreme court jester dave ross 1 dave ross 2 organize your stuff interesting jim kardi teknomo numerical ignorance mental workout g scaled data g normalized data tufte data analysis arthurian website about me contact labels real is a calculation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1966 1970s growth 1986 2000 2013 revision 400k smoothing a call for better argument a little r n r accelerated repayment of debt accidental discoveries adjusting debt for inflation artish b is greater than a b h finte behavioral ec best put downs bullard s earthquake c d of wealth calculating labor share civ civilization coinage coping cost and productivity cost push cost push inflation credit efficiency crisis chronicles cycle of civilization debasement debt debt and context debt and inflation debt and recovery debt bulge debt good and bad debt is not credit debt productivity debt to gdp debt to gdp in comments def credit def debt def economic activity def financial cost def gdp def general equilibrium def inflation def inside money def investment def issue and reissue def laffer limit def outside money deflation demand pull inflation disarray dpd echoes economic forces economics v the economy eroc erosion of debt evolution of the excuse expectations factors failure s embrace fallacy of composition fcm fed policy federal spending feedback loops final spending financial cost financialization five words five digit years forget about debt fpi fred free banking era full disclosure fun with the mpc gang8 gds gold shortage gresham s law gross domestic spending growth rate calc growth phase growth historical revisionism hoarding hodrick prescott household debt hover craft how to pay for it humor because you might not know if i didn t say i couldn t sleep iceberg inflation introduction is it ego captain jerry says krugman laffer curve limits long and variable loops malaise matched set fekete math problems medium of account military spending milton friedman mmt money multiplier more debt than money is policy motives moving average new tools of policy non linear not only household debt oil parameters for debt pfi policy predicting recession price controls printing vs spending problem x productivity questions r reading and writing red and green reduction reviews scott sumner sequence 2 serfdom simulacron simulated evidence slack special report spreadsheeting stagflation standard deviation star trek stimulus sumner symmetry in deception taxes taylor rule the difference between debt and credit the economy is transaction the k r shift the long decline the supply side the tint knob they don t know timeline tongue in cheek tot ulc umic unsustainable urgency verdoorn waste fraud abuse withering shoots zoho the new arthurian economics copyright 2010 2018 arthur shipman saturday february 28 2015 long story a month ago back at the end of january my blogger preview display suddenly picked up a huge delay like fifty little alligators it s no longer useable i griped about it briefly figuring it would go away but it hasn t i just no longer use it last night i was pretty sad about the passing of leonard nimoy i spent a couple hours reading news articles and looking for an image or two to put up on the blog around 8pm i settled on two images uploaded them to the blog and posted the thing felt a little better then not much but a little it was like mourning time i swear i think nimoy s passing affected me more than the assassination of jfk thankfully spock lives on anyway this morning between three and four am the puppy has to go out at all hours so i m awake i came up with an interesting fred graph i tried to prepare a new post to display the graph but i couldn t get the image to load basically what happened was this everything worked right up until the end when i had to click ok to complete the last step and load the image the ok button just wouldn t work the button depressed and popped back up but nothing happened of course the cancel button worked fine that was four o clock this morning i googled the problem somebody had a similar problem a year ago and you know the responses were typical they want to know what browser you re using and what operating system like you re some kind of idiot the thing worked at 8pm and then it didn t work at 4am don t ask me stupid questions check to see if somebody was working on the image upload code and check to see if they screwed it up don t bullshit me so i read a bunch of the follow up comments and it seemed that maybe if i switched from firefox to chrome the problem would go away okay first i tried refreshing firefox that was quick and easy and it didn t work so then i downloaded chrome you know the google product you trust google right i did that was my mistake i was just ever so slightly careless playing 20 questions no i don t want to download this no i don t want to download that i just want chrome but then there was a message about fixing errors in windows and i said yeah okay that was my mistake i installed reimage repair that was my mistake the damned thing wasn t even done loading yet and i got three flashing windows with warnings about other problems and offers to download other wonderful things i shut it down pressed the power button and kept it pressed till the thing shut down turned it back on after a minute and started the browser and those three flashing windows came back again i shut it down and started up in safe mode somehow i remembered pressing f8 gives me safe mode in safe mode the help came up it said i could try system restore so i clicked it after a few moments i clicked it again then a window came up that said system restore is already running but there was no evidence that system restore was running so i didn t know if it was true or if it was reimage repair messing with my head i tried a few more times and got the same message then i took the puppy out again when i came back the system restore window was open it recommended i guess the most recent restore point 5 am this morning which was from just before a windows update i said okay i gave it a few minutes when i came back that friggin reimage repair was out of my system and everything was working except of course blogger s image upload thing so i figured i d write this story turns out before i was done writing the image upload started working again so that s how you got to see the choose a layout form above and that s how you get to see the puppy again lexi naps on the couch oh and jesus don t trust chrome and don t trust google any more it s a sad day thankfully spock lives on posted by the arthurian at 12 03 pm 0 comments friday february 27 2015 live long and prosper posted by the arthurian at 8 26 pm 0 comments i think cyclical there are two ways of looking at the economy one way is to see it as a barrel full of loose ends and disconnected acts the other is to see the economy s behavior as cyclical when i read ferdinand lot in the seventh century the right of coinage the royal prerogative par excellence passed over to the episcopal or monastic churches or to private persons the treasury perhaps still collected part of the profits of coining mints multiplied in the cities chateau castra vici and even mere villas the history of the coinage shows in a striking fashion the disintegration of the royal power i think fall of rome decentralization of power dark age i think those who don t learn from history are doomed to repeat it i think cyclical when i read jp koning let s gradually privatize the issuance of paper currency if anyone can make cash relevant again it s innovators in the private sector koning sees the world as loose ends and disconnected acts i think fall of rome posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments labels cycle of civilization thursday february 26 2015 burping it up again this is an old one from 7 september 2014 i think it s good and worth repeating let s draw a conclusion at fred blog how much money is the fed printing to answer that question they look at currency in circulation two graphs first graph graph 1 quantity of money in natural log values before 1960 flat after 1960 straight line increase the graph uses natural log values to show growth rates as the fred post says if the slope is the same for two years the growth rate is the same a more upward slope is faster growth a less upward slope is slower growth the fred post says the values are indeed increasing but there is no indication that it is accelerating in other words the line goes up yes but after the early 1960s it doesn t curve up second graph graph 2 quantity of money relative to gdp graph 2 shows the same money as graph 1 but shows it a different way no log numbers instead the graph compares the quantity of money to gdp on graph 2 we have downtrend to about 1985 and then uptrend the currency component of m1 grew more slowly than gdp in the early years and more quickly than gdp in the late years i want to say the change occured around 1985 leave out the years before 1960 where graph 1 has the flat trend look at the years since 1960 where 1 shows a straight line uptrend from 1960 to 1985 the trend is down on graph 2 after 1985 the trend is up and yet as the fred blog says graph 1 shows no acceleration graph 1 shows that currency growth did not change graph 2 shows that either currency growth or gdp growth did change we have to put the two facts together in our head either currency growth or gdp growth did change but currency growth did not change therefore gdp growth changed voila to confirm i took a quick look at the numbers during the 25 years from 1960 to 1985 currency in circulation increased by a factor of 5 6 during the 25 years from 1985 to 2010 currency in circulation increased by a factor of 5 5 almost exactly the same so a straight line increase it is as fred said during the first 25 years gdp increased by a factor of 8 0 that s faster than currency growth so the line on graph 2 goes down between 1960 and 1985 during the second 25 years gdp increased by a factor of 3 4 that s slower than currency growth so the line on graph 2 goes up between 1985 and 2010 currency growth was the same for the two periods even though the great inflation is entirely contained in the earlier period currency growth was the same but gdp growth was different gdp growth was much faster in the early period and much slower in the second posted by the arthurian at 4 37 am 0 comments tuesday february 24 2015 labor and nonlabor costs the best match i could find is for nonfinancial corporations unit labor costs and unit nonlabor costs for nonfinancial corporations these two series graph 1 unit labor costs red and unit nonlabor costs blue bls points out that unit nonlabor costs include consumption of fixed capital taxes on production and imports less subsidies net interest and miscellaneous payments and business current transfer payments both data series are indexed to 2009 100 that s why the two lines meet in 2009 on graph 1 and that s why their ratio has the value 1 0 in 2009 on graph 2 graph 2 unit labor costs relative to unit nonlabor costs graph 2 shows unit labor costs falling relative to unit nonlabor costs it s all downhill by the end labor costs are about half what...
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