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vators of olives and vines these wealthy families were a clear minority of the people but they held most of the fertile land in the attic plains while the small farmers generally lived on the poorer land in the hills the nobility firmly entrenched in the security of their political power and their bonds of kinship cult and neighbourhood and so far not yet seriously affected by the slow rise of the peasantry were to face an economic and social crisis which not only undermined their own power but also severely shook the whole community the enmities among the noble families and the blood bath that ended the cylonian affair were symptoms rather than causes of general conditions otherwise hardly known to us after that aristotle writes there was for a long time civic struggle between the nobles and the people in general the lower classes were in a sorry plight what their situation exactly was depends on some facts which cannot be regarded as clearly established one thing we do know is that down to solon money economy hardly began to exert any influence at athens it was a question of land and its produce solon seems to have given a law to prevent the unlimited accumulation of land the fact that the plight of the peasantry was so widespread and also that athens did not send out colonies makes it likely that there was no bar to dividing the ordinary lot except that it may frequently have been too small for further division thus the number of very small farms would increase and make it more likely that so many peasants fell into debt aristotle maintains that loans were on the security of the persons of the debtor and his family sale into slavery was the ultimate consequence of that rule when a peasant tried to get help from a wealthy neighbour it was quite common as solon expressly states for the rich to make the most unfair use of their opportunities solon reproached them for avarice and arrogance thus condemning on moral grounds what he knows was at the same time a grave social danger solon was elected archon for the year 594 593 and was given full power the foremost thing he did was to free the debtors and their land he did this by cancelling all debts and this was called seisachtheia the shaking off of burdens it certainly was a radical measure but the loss for the creditors did not touch the substance of their wealth at the same time he forbade for the future all loans on the security of the person so that never again could a man or his wife and family be enslaved for debt it is possible that he cancelled thereby a law of dracon s solon was a man of the middle road that will have been a trend of his nature but it was also the result of a reasoned approach to politics rather than an a priori principle solon learnt the wisdom that in great things it is hard to please everybody he proudly claimed to the demos i have given such honour as is sufficient neither taking away nor granting them more for those who had power and were great in riches i equally cared that they should suffer nothing wrong thus i stood holding my strong shield over both and i did not allow either side to prevail over justice posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments saturday february 14 2015 greece now and then article 50 of the consolidated treaty on european union 1 any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements 2 a member state which decides to withdraw shall notify the european council of its intention in the light of the guidelines provided by the european council the union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that state setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the union that agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with article 218 3 of the treaty on the functioning of the european union it shall be concluded on behalf of the union by the council acting by a qualified majority after obtaining the consent of the european parliament 3 the treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or failing that two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2 unless the european council in agreement with the member state concerned unanimously decides to extend this period 4 for the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3 the member of the european council or of the council representing the withdrawing member state shall not participate in the discussions of the european council or council or in decisions concerning it a qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with article 238 3 b of the treaty on the functioning of the european union 5 if a state which has withdrawn from the union asks to rejoin its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in article 49 here are three points made by article 50 the eu shall set out the arrangements for a member state s withdrawal the withdrawal agreement shall be negotiated by the council after obtaining the consent of the european parliament in other words if the parliament does not consent there can be no withdrawal agreement and evidently no withdrawal the treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question that is the withdrawing state is no longer a member of the eu as soon as the withdrawal agreement takes effect or failing that two years after the state notifies the union of its intent to withdraw unless the european council decides to extend this period wikipedia delian league encarta 96 delian league delian league federation of city states of ancient greece whose main purpose at the time was to prepare against a possible renewal of aggression by persia the league sometimes called confederation of delos was founded in 478 bc after the failure of a persian attempt to invade greece because it appeared probable that persian aggression might come by sea rather than by land athens as the greatest sea power in greece became the leading member of the league the confederation had its headquarters on the island of delos and each of the member states which at one time numbered more than 200 made a contribution in manpower and equipment in proportion to its resources as time passed fewer of the allies in the league contributed men and ships most of them substituting money payments which became in effect tribute to athens as this trend continued the program of the league gradually changed from one of defense against persia to that of strengthening athens when several members were restrained by force from seceding the alliance of sovereign states was transformed into what modern scholars call the athenian empire wikipedia greco persian wars the allies of athens were not released from their obligations to provide either money or ships despite the cessation of hostilities h g wells the outline of history and it was chiefly the poorer citizens of athens who sustained this empire by their most vigorous and incessant personal service every citizen was liable to military service at home or abroad between the ages of eighteen and sixty sometimes on purely athenian affairs and sometimes in defence of the cities of the empire whose citizens had bought themselves off posted by the arthurian at 11 17 am 0 comments friday february 13 2015 your choice you can dismiss this graph because it shows something called the money multiplier graph 1 the money multiplier or you can look at the damn thing and see what you can discover your choice here s what i might do put a line on the graph graph 2 the red line shows the low edge of a trend channel my red line just by eye shows the trend of the first few years after the january 1987 peak in the multiplier remarkably that same red line makes a good fit to the lows of the blue line 20 years later midway between those two periods the blue line runs very close to the red for a good four years punching thru it just once at the end of 1999 it is as if something set a minimum a downtrending boundary below which the money multiplier could not fall except by waiting for the passage of time to push that boundary lower an interesting notion but there is more there are stories there must be stories behind those disturbances where the blue line runs up and away from the red in the early 1990s then again in the 2000s and returns to the red line once gradually once suddenly there must be stories the sudden return to red in the midst of the 2009 recession that s crisis related bernanke related that s an obvious one but how about the eight years before that sudden drop that is almost the whole decade of the 2000s and all that time the money multiplier was running nearly flat there was a stiff resistance to downtrend in the multiplier at that time now that s interesting and that was during the bush years explain that s the second of the two disturbances the other the first begins just after the 1990 recession peaks at the end of 1993 and returns to red by around mid 1997 can you explain this one i think i can the blue trend away from red from early 1991 to late 1993 matches up with a unique downtrend in the debt per dollar dpd ratio and the blue return to red from late 1993 to mid 1997 and then further to the end of 1999 matches up with the return to trend of the dpd i went back and started with the blue line again the money multiplier from graph 1 i added my debt per dollar ratio in green graph 3 the money multiplier blue and total debt per dollar green both of these ratios use fred s m1sl data series this may account for some of the similarity that will soon become apparent the blue line divides m1sl by the monetary base ambsl the green line divides accumulated public and private debt tcmdo by m1sl next i eyeballed two trend lines red for the money multiplier and black for debt per dollar graph 4 the multiplier and dpd with trend lines on graph 4 between the years 1990 and 2000 you see the disturbance where the blue line moves away from the red and then gradually returns this is the disturbance noted above that i said i can explain for the same 1990 2000 period you can see a disturbance where the green line moves away from the black and then gradually returns these two disturbances the blue and the green occur at the same time and display similar shapes except the one is the mirror opposite of the other i took graph 4 and highlighted the disturbance areas graph 5 the multiplier and dpd with the disturbances highlighted i think that s pretty interesting what does it mean i don t know but i don t need to know what it means today i never looked at the money multiplier this way before today i don t want to jump to any conclusions we have the beginning years the middle years and the ending years of the money multiplier all fitting themselves to that down trending red line and we have explained the first disturbance the disturbance of the 1990s all that remains is the second disturbance the bush years disturbance oh but you were going to explain that one but hey it s the money multiplier we re looking at here so maybe you should just dismiss it it s your choice posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 5 comments thursday february 12 2015 what would you do the money multiplier graph 1 the fred series mult the money multiplier people say there s no such thing as the money multiplier but of course there is i just showed it to you it goes down on their notes tab fred says the m1 multiplier is the ratio of m1 to the st louis adjusted monetary base there is a data series for m1 and there is a series for the base and we can divide the one by the other to get the ratio doing that the ratio goes farther back in time than the mid 1980s graph 2 the money multiplier going back to 1959 it still goes down it goes down from 1959 to the mid 1980s jumps up just a bit and then wanders downhill more rapidly than before it s not what you d call stable if you were the fed you could put a dollar into the economy and see it become 3 50 or so but that worked only briefly in the 1960s your dollar would have become 3 if you did it sometime in the 1970s 2 50 briefly in the mid 90s then 2 around the year 2000 and then a little over a buck and a half just before the crisis then it dropped straight down to the 1 0 level where the fed adding a dollar to the economy resulted in no further increase at all and now it is below 1 0 so that when the fed adds a dollar to the economy only about 75 cents actually makes it into the economy the monetary multiplier has fallen to less than one people argue about the fiscal multiplier and whether it s greater than one people who favor government spending say yes people who oppose government spending say no they argue i guess because there s no clear evidence but there is clear evidence for the monetary multiplier and it is clearly less than one monetary stimulus in other words is most definitely not working the money multiplier is less than one okay so we know that monetary policy is not working but there is no clear evidence regarding fiscal policy what should we do what would you do i know what policymakers do they rely on monetary policy because the fiscal multiplier is low posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday february 11 2015 arnold j toynbee on the big endogenous social cycle from the somervell abridgement of a study of history in studying the growths of civilizations we found that they could be analysed into successions of performances of the drama of challenge and response and that the reason why one performance followed another was because each of the responses was not only successful in answering the particular challenge by which it had been evoked but was also instrumental in provoking a fresh challenge which arose each time out of the new situation that the successful response had brought about this repetitiveness or recurrency of challenge is likewise implied in the concept of disintegration but in this case the responses fail in consequence instead of a series of challenges each different in character from a predecessor which has been successfully met and relegated to past history we have the same challenge presented again and again when the outcome of each successive encounter is not victory but defeat the unanswered challenge can never be disposed of and is bound to present itself again and again until it either receives some tardy and imperfect answer or else brings about the destruction of the society which has shown itself inveterately incapable of responding to it effectively posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday february 10 2015 callahan and hoffmann on endogenous social cycles via la bocca della verità the ssrn download page for gene callahan and andreas hoffman s two population social cycle theories from the abstract discerning family resemblances in the world of theories can be useful for several reasons for one thing noticing that two theories share the traits of a family of theories may help us to understand each of t...
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