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description= 15 posts published by Lars Syll during July 2017;
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the (480), and (227), that (157), are (84), not (63), for (60), debt (57), economics (48), with (48), have (45), but (43), they (40), this (39), public (39), has (37), #theory (36), more (35), och (33), real (33), jul (32), was (31), will (30), 2017 (29), one (29), models (28), att (28), what (27), can (27), may (26), from (26), there (25), economic (23), jan (22), som (22), when (22), their (22), would (21), which (21), economists (21), our (21), world (21), comments (20), empirical (20), some (19), its (19), about (19), government (18), these (18), problem (18), only (17), det (17), all (17), mar (16), apr (16), jun (16), posted (16), been (16), than (16), since (16), assumptions (16), experiments (16), till (16), other (15), aug (15), sep (15), oct (15), nov (15), dec (15), feb (15), how (15), market (15), prices (15), course (15), debts (15), new (15), har (15), time (14), increase (14), most (14), med (14), target (14), made (14), finance (14), 2014 (13), 2016 (13), house (13), 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elf evidently relevant for such a discipline for although the economist himself implicitly claims that his axiom is universally accepted as true and in now need of proof that is in no way a justified reason for the rest of us to simpliciter accept the claim when applying deductivist thinking to economics neoclassical economists usually set up as if models based on a set of tight axiomatic assumptions from which consistent and precise inferences are made the beauty of this procedure is of course that if the axiomatic premises are true the conclusions necessarily follow the snag is that if the models are to be relevant we also have to argue that their precision and rigour still holds when they are applied to real world situations they often don t when addressing real economies the idealizations and abstractions necessary for the deductivist machinery to work simply don t hold the logic of idealization is a marvellous tool in mathematics and axiomatic deductivist systems but a poor guide for real world systems as hans albert has it on the neoclassical style of thought science progresses through the gradual elimination of errors from a large offering of rivalling ideas the truth of which no one can know from the outset the question of which of the many theoretical schemes will finally prove to be especially productive and will be maintained after empirical investigation cannot be decided a priori yet to be useful at all it is necessary that they are initially formulated so as to be subject to the risk of being revealed as errors thus one cannot attempt to preserve them from failure at every price a theory is scientifically relevant first of all because of its possible explanatory power its performance which is coupled with its informational content clearly it is possible to interpret the presuppositions of a theoretical system not as hypotheses but simply as limitations to the area of application of the system in question since a relationship to reality is usually ensured by the language used in economic statements in this case the impression is generated that a content laden statement about reality is being made although the system is fully immunized and thus without content in my view that is often a source of self deception in pure economic thought most mainstream economic models are abstract unrealistic and presenting mostly non testable hypotheses how then are they supposed to tell us anything about the world we live in confronted with the massive empirical failures of their models and theories mainstream economists often retreat into looking upon their models and theories as some kind of conceptual exploration and give up any hopes pretenses whatsoever of relating their theories and models to the real world instead of trying to bridge the gap between models and the world one decides to look the other way to me this kind of scientific defeatism is equivalent to giving up on our search for understanding the world we live in it can t be enough to prove or deduce things in a model world if theories and models do not directly or indirectly tell us anything of the world we live in then why should we waste any of our precious time on them are methodological discussions risky 14 jul 2017 at 13 53 posted in economics 2 comments most mainstream economists are reluctant to have a methodological discussion they usually think it s too risky well maybe it is but on the other hand if we re not prepared to take that risk economics can t progress as tony lawson forcefully argues in his essays on the nature and state of modern economics twenty common myths and or fallacies of modern economics 1 the widely observed crisis of the modern economics discipline turns on problems that originate at the level of economic theory and or policy it does not the basic problems mostly originate at the level of methodology and in particular with the current emphasis on methods of mathematical modelling the latter emphasis is an error given the lack of match of the methods in question to the conditions in which they are applied so long as the critical focus remains only or even mainly at the level of substantive economic theory and or policy matters then no amount of alternative text books popular monographs introductory pocketbooks journal or magazine articles or whatever are going to get at the nub of the problems and so have the wherewithal to help make economics a sufficiently relevant discipline it is the methods and manner of their use that are the basic problem if scientific progress in economics as robert lucas and other latter days followers of milton friedman seem to think lies in our ability to tell better and better stories one would of course expect economics journal being filled with articles supporting the stories with empirical evidence confirming the predictions however i would argue that the journals still show a striking and embarrassing paucity of empirical studies that try to substantiate these predictive claims equally amazing is how little one has to say about the relationship between the model and real world target systems it is as though thinking explicit discussion argumentation and justification on the subject isn t considered required if the ultimate criteria of success of a deductivist system is to what extent it predicts and coheres with parts of reality modern mainstream economics seems to be a hopeless misallocation of scientific resources to focus scientific endeavours on proving things in models is a gross misapprehension of what an economic theory ought to be about deductivist models and methods disconnected from reality are not relevant to predict explain or understand real world economies no matter how precise and rigorous the analysis is and no matter how hard one tries to cast the argument in modern mathematical form they do not push economic science forwards one millimeter if they do not stand the acid test of relevance to the target no matter how clear precise rigorous or certain the inferences delivered inside these models are they do not per se say anything about real world economies mer naket än så här blir det inte 14 jul 2017 at 11 20 posted in varia comments off on mer naket än så här blir det inte den här videon golvade mig fullständigt när jag första gången såg den år 1987 naket och självutlämnande ur hjärtats mörker peter lemarc imponerade för trettio år sedan med sin nakna ärlighet det gör han fortfarande is there a eu housing bubble 13 jul 2017 at 16 14 posted in economics 5 comments low interest rates are criticized by some economists as these should encourage asset price bubbles houses are our most important asset are house prices in the eu at this moment increasing too fast not yet in southern europe however swedish prices are of the chart dutch prices are rapidly increasing and continued to do so during the first six months of 2017 german prices have by now increased with a third house ownership in germany is less common than in many other countries but the increase means that there will quite soon be a push to sell houses to renters who of course have to borrow from the big banks yes there is a northern european bubble and it is rapidly inflating during the last six months not in the graph prices have continued to increase house prices show continued increases which are way higher than the increases of nominal income of households actions have to be taken a gradual increase with clear forward guidance of land value taxes the money raised has to be used to lower vat on labor a gradual decrease of loan to value ratio s with clear forward guidance and a gradual banishment of tax deductions of interest paid with clear forward guidance it won t happen merijn knibbe yes indeed house prices are increasing fast in eu and more so in sweden than in any other member state sweden s house price boom started in mid 1990s and looking at the development of real house prices during the last three decades there are reasons to be deeply worried the indebtedness of the swedish household sector has also risen to alarmingly high levels in its latest report on sweden the european commission warns sweden about rising house prices and spiralling household debts the government s 22 point housing market plan addresses some underlying factors for housing shortage including measures to increase the amount of available land for construction reduce construction costs and shorten planning process lead times however some other structural inefficiencies including weak competition in the construction sector do not receive appropriate attention the housing shortage is exacerbated by barriers hindering the efficient use of the existing housing stock sweden s tightly regulated rental market creates lock in and insider outsider effects but no significant policy action has been taken to introduce more flexibility in setting rents in the owner occupancy market relatively high capital gains taxes reduce homeowner mobility a temporary reform of the deferral rules for capital gains taxes on property transaction was introduced but this will probably have limited effect lack of available and affordable housing can also limit labour market mobility and the effective integration of migrants into the labour market and contribute to intergenerational inequality yours truly has been trying to argue with very serious people that it s really high time to take away the punch bowl mostly i have felt like the voice of one calling in the desert where do housing bubbles come from there are of course many different explanations but one of the more fundamental mechanisms at work is easy to explain with the following arbitrage argument assume you have a sum of money a that you want to invest you can put the money in a bank and receive a yearly interest r on the money disregarding for the sake of simplicity risks asset depreciations and transaction costs that may possibly be present ra should equal the income you would alternatively receive if instead you buy a house with a down payment a and let it out during a year with a rent h plus changes in house price dhp i e ra h dhp dividing both sides of the equation with the house price hp we get hp h r a hp dhp hp if you expect house prices hp to increase house prices will increase it s this kind of self generating cumulative process à la wicksell myrdal that is the core of the housing bubble unlike the usual commodities markets where demand curves usually point downwards on asset markets they often point upwards and therefore give rise to this kind of instability and the greater the leverage the lower a hp the greater the increase in prices the swedish housing market is living on borrowed time it s really high time to take away the punch bowl what is especially worrying is that although the aggregate net asset position of the swedish households is still on the solid side an increasing proportion of those assets is illiquid when the inevitable drop in house prices hits the banking sector and the rest of the economy the consequences will be enormous it hurts when bubbles burst next page recent posts the greatest country on earth statistics and causality risksamhällets konturer arbetslöshetssiffran som styr den ekonomiska politiken 50 år efter studenten personal finding the late student stuff love s secret stein s paradox a lesson on precision and unbiasedness audioholic summer research ett välförtjänt bottenrekord arbetslösheten inte statsskulden är problemet how credible is the credibility revolution in econometrics randomness and representativeness are not the same lönebildning och arbetslöshet i sverige nancy cartwright s contributions to the philosophy of science comments policy i like comments follow netiquette comments especially anonymous ones with pseudo argumentations abusive language or irrelevant links will not be posted and please remember being a full time professor leaves only limited time to respond to comments recent 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