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Text of the page (random words):
cies that strengthen the reliance on credit we need to rely on non credit money to maintain economic activity in the existing economy and we need to use credit to expand the economy we need to use credit for growth not for everything it must be obvious by now and it must be policy when you put finance people in charge of policy they cannot see debt as a problem posted by the arthurian at 12 00 pm 0 comments rock and hard place smoke and mirrors gene hayward writes who is more selfish senior citizens who won t take reduced benefits to help young people financially or young people who won t pay more taxes to help old people financially good luck with that question gene s question and it s not just gene s question creates a front between young and old as though there is enough money for only one of the two groups and well yeah that is how it looks but if that s how it really is it s because we ve used the wrong economic policies and by economic policies i don t mean just the level of government spending and taxes that s the only part of policy that gets examined but it s not where the problem lies not long ago we were the richest country in the world if we re no longer on top we re still close to the top therefore there should be no reason we cannot afford both social security benefits and reasonable taxes all around no reason but bad policy earlier i covered a macromania post that set up a similar front on the one hand taxes sufficient to balance the federal budget while expanding stimulus spending on the other hand taxes sufficient to eventually balance the budget while expanding stimulus spending no we should not be lining up and taking sides on ridiculous issues like the timing of the tax increases needed to balance the budget we should be calling for policies to reduce the private sector debt that inhibits economic growth but we ll never even get to the discussion of private sector debt if we insist on focusing on trivia like taxing now versus taxing later posted by the arthurian at 9 00 am 8 comments no solution over at macromania david andolfatto takes a look at robert shiller s droll article on the balanced budget multiplier here is a christmas gift andolfatto writes to those of us who have been primed since youth to be receptive to this sort of message stimulus without more debt i point out david s remark because i m just a little too old and anti social to have got the message regarding the urgent need to avoid government debt 1 i took a course in macro back in 1977 using the 1975 edition of a textbook first published in 1963 there was a world of difference between the economy of the early 1960s and that of the latter 1970s the economics 101 i learned was from a time before the solutions arising since the mid 1970s had worked their way into the curriculum our final for the course was to look at the economic problems of the time and write up an analysis and some policy recommendations i ve been doing that ever since while economists and policymakers started inventing new stories about rational behavior and reinterpreting the words of david ricardo and such i was in the library searching through statistical abstracts photocopying data tables at 25 cents a page calculating ratios with a slide rule and creating graphs with pencil and paper when i read i read maynard keynes and adam smith i was pretty well isolated from the new ideas of the developing horde of new thinkers andolfatto quotes shiller on the idea of increasing taxes enough to cover enhanced stimulus spending an idea shiller supports in his article then andolfatto rejects a specific part of shiller s idea and offers an alternative what i have a problem with is in using some silly theory to support the notion for example that taxes should be raised to finance a large public capital expenditure now i m no expert in finance but it seems to me that a large capital expenditure should be financed with debt the debt service could be supported by toll revenue on bridges and roads and user fees in general taxes are distortionary and to the extent that they are needed to support public spending they should be spread out over time shiller defends the idea of using increased government spending as a stimulus to be paid by increasing taxes enough to keep the budget continuously in balance andolfatto defends the idea of using increased government spending as a stimulus to be paid by increasing taxes or fees at a more leisurely rate to bring the budget into balance but not immediately all very nice however only six times in the past 50 years have we been able to bring the federal budget into balance now or later both shiller s idea and andolfatto s are unrealistic and unattainable at least to the mind of this isolated thinker as it appears to me the whole notion of solving our economic problems by balancing the federal budget is unrealistic and unattainable as it appears to me the whole line of reasoning that first emerged in the 1970s is just bad economics to be blunt i don t think you can develop an economic argument piecemeal with tiny contributions from dozens or hundreds of individual economists i think what you get is a piecemeal patchwork argument held together largely by constant repetition what you get is a different argument for every little piece of the problem there is no overview no overall coherence and no viable solution notes 1 it s not that i favor expanding government debt not at all rather i do not let public debt cloud my judgment the way almost everyone else does return posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments tuesday december 28 2010 the friedman factor this is a straightforward version of the roundabout calculation milton friedman used to make his graphs show similarity between money and prices milton friedman s famous graphs seem to show that inflation a general increase of prices is caused by an increase in the quantity of money relative to output i ll tell ya how he made the graphs look like that step 1 you take the total amount of money that we actually have in this country in people s pockets and in their checking accounts and also in their savings accounts step 2 you take the total purchase price of all the goods and services we produce in a year or in other words the total we paid to buy all that stuff step 3 then you take the money number from step one there and divide it by the gdp number from step two step 4 and then you take the answer from step three and times it by the consumer price index and you call this money relative to output when you graph the result from step four it looks a lot like the price trend because you factored the price trend into that result see also my exchange of comments with the secret economist beginning here a refresher on dividing by a fraction and my series on milton friedman s arithmetic posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 1 comments monday december 27 2010 is the fed printing money gene you write seems to me the banks have a second required reserves account that the qe credits are going into and do not become a part of the fractional banking system i take it you mean an unofficial second rr account a second account in effect as it were i take it you observe what has happened with bank reserves and compare it to what would happen if a second layer of rr accounts had been set up for the qe funds if that s not what you mean i must have missed something here are excerpts and my initial reactions to the wsj post that you linked is the federal reserve printing money to finance its bond buying or isn t it ben bernanke has given inconsistent answers at times saying it is and at times saying it isn t it s a sad day when the fate of our economy rests in the hands of people who try to reduce the problem as bill clinton did with the line it depends on what the meaning of the word is is on the other hand maybe bernanke s doubletalk is the appropriate response to the trivial aggressions phrased as questions to which he has been subject i suspect that even after a lobotomy bernanke would be a better economic thinker than all of congress hooked up in parallel in the wsj post in the first paragraph after the words here is an attempt to sort it out one finds this little bit of wisdom the fed can do something else it has the power to electronically credit money to the bank accounts of sellers who in turn sell government securities or mortgage backed securities to the fed i do not understand why that is considered news if you look at a dollar right across the top there it says federal reserve note that means the dollar was issued by the federal reserve this has not been news since 1913 whether the money is created electronically or by printing or by stringing shells into wampum is only a matter of technology as far as the act itself creating money goes the technology is utterly insignificant who else would the money be paid to other than sellers there is nothing else in that excerpt so i have to approach the wsj article with an expectation of disappointment but as mr bernanke has been trying to emphasize lately perhaps clumsily most of the money that the fed has created isn t circulating much through the financial system it s mostly sitting idly often in deposits also known as reserves that banks keep with the fed itself definitely clumsily but i agree with the wsj that the money isn t causing prices to rise because the money isn t circulating as milton friedman tried to emphasize it is not the existence of money but the spending that influences prices further the money could circulate without causing prices to rise if the velocity of money were sufficiently slow the abrupt fall of velocity was the reason for the qe in the first place however economic recovery presupposes that velocity will return to some higher level the money is very likely to cause price increases at that time some people say that when new money is created the people who get it first have an advantage over the rest of us to me that s a little petty but maybe a better word for it would be micro as opposed to macro as things have turned out the new money is available to people who already have substantial assets and who are looking to protect their wealth either by getting into or by getting out of dollars when they get out of dollars they get into other assets increasing demand for these and raising asset prices if i have my current events right we can already see that happening the new money is not available to those of us already swamped with debt fair enough we d rather reduce our debt than increase it further but as a result at the consumer price index level prices are not rising so much yet as we see today with the cost of gasoline rising asset prices will trickle down through the manufacturing process pushing up costs and prices i should say this is just an intuitive analysis i wouldn t know an asset if i had one posted by the arthurian at 2 12 pm 0 comments the kucinich bill prohibits the creation of private money through the establishment of lending credit against depository receipts sometimes referred to as fractional reserve banking sec 402 f 2 page 41 of the pdf unrealistic i think to try to prohibit fractional reserve banking it is like trying to prohibit gunpowder or the spread of nuclear weapons or any technological advance it is like trying to prohibit the sunrise posted by the arthurian at 9 00 am 3 comments not using autocad we have two policy goals we want growth and we want stable prices we have two policy tools we have fiscal policy and monetary policy we have one arrangement of tools and goals that we use all the time we use monetary policy to fight inflation and fiscal policy to encourage growth to fight inflation monetary policy takes money out of circulation to encourage growth fiscal policy encourages spending and credit use our policies remove money from circulation but encourage spending and credit use because of these policies nobody has much money and everybody has a lot of debt this problem is about as difficult to solve as the problem i talked about yesterday in the autocad post that problem was a typo this one is a failure to notice a conflict in policy the mistakes are not similar but neither is difficult to fix posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday december 26 2010 emphasis added a remark by jake of econompic from the story of income and outlays slowing growth not a downturn in growth is all it takes for a levered financial system to be strained let s make it slowing growth is all it takes for an excessively levered financial system to be strained it is a way in hindsight to determine whether our economy was safely or excessively levered finance fractional reserve banking risk debt capitalism the use of other people s money all these things are essential in any but the most primitive economy but excessive application of these essentials too often threatens to return our economy to a most primitive state update 17 jan 2011 from steve keen s debtwatch the 16 december 2010 post it was to me and many other non neoclassical economists all too evident that at some stage this growth of private debt would have to cease when it did the mere fact that its rate of growth had slowed would cause a major recession posted by the arthurian at 9 00 am 0 comments using autocad so i have in mind to stick a block in my drawing a block is just another drawing usually not a very complicated one it could show a tree or a toilet or a road sign or whatever you need to show often in the drawings that you do you can drag and drop to bring the tree block or any block into your main drawing or you can insert a block using the insert command or you can do what i like to do and write a program in vba to handle the insertion and whatever else i want to do with that block i have in mind to stick a block in my drawing an info block that will hold info about the drawing my infoblock is just some text inside a rectangle on the noprint layer because i don t want to see it on the plotted drawing told ya blocks are simple it s definitely the kind of thing i want to automate as much as i can stick the block in the drawing automatically fill out the info as much as i can automatically look up that info when i need it automatically and make design and drafting decisions based on that info automatically that s the idea but it starts as you might expect with a first step i put the infoblock into my test drawing by hand drag and drop so the first step then was to be able to find it automatically that s where the vba code comes in i have a bunch of useful routines already written i put em in a commonproject file which is available to any other project i m working on i just use tools references from the vba menu to select the commonproject and the common code is accessible of course i don t have the infoblock code figured out yet so it s not in my commonproject yet among the routines in my commonproject is ssselect i use it to create selectio...
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