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description= Commentary on monetary policy in the spirit of R. G. Hawtrey;
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tuations for instance problems of secular trend or cyclical problems in other countries or periods in the same way although one would not expect with the same exactness in which the law of gravitation explains celestial and terrestrial phenomena alike this point has particular relevance with regard to the different situations expected to arise in an impending future period of the same country that has been studied behavior patterns are subject to change gradually through changing habits and tastes urbanization and industrialization gradually or unevenly through technological change abruptly through economic policies or the economic effects of political events while one particular behavior pattern may be deemed fairly stable over a certain period a much greater risk is involved in assuming that a whole system of structural equations is stable over time an observed regularity not traced to underlying behavior patterns institutional rules and laws of production is therefore an instrument of unknown reliability the predictions it yields cannot be qualified with the help even of known trends in behavior or technology it is of no help whatever in assessing the probable effects of stated economic policies or institutional changes there is no sign in the book of an awareness of the problems of determining the identifiability of and measuring structural equations as a prerequisite to the practically important types of prediction measurable effects of economic actions are scrutinized to all appearance in almost complete detachment from any knowledge we may have of the motives of such actions the movements of economic variables are studied as if they were the eruptions of a mysterious volcano whose boiling caldron can never be penetrated there is no explicit discussion at all of the problem of prediction its possibilities and limitations with or without structural change although surely the history of the volcano is important primarily as a key to its future activities there is no discussion whatever as to what bearing the methods used and the provisional results reached may have on questions of economic policy this then is my second argument against the empiricist position without resort to theory in the sense indicated conclusions relevant to the guidance of economic policies cannot be drawn t c koopmans measurement without theory the review of economics and statistics 29 3 161 72 pp 166 67 mattei misjudges hawtrey published december 25 2023 1920 21 depression clara mattei gold standard gold exchange standard great depression keynes r g hawtrey world war i 1 comment clara mattei associate professor of economics at the new school for social research recently published a book the capital order how economists invented austerity and paved the way to fascism university of chicago press in which she argues that the fiscal and monetary austerity imposed on great britain after world war i to restore the gold standard at the prewar parity of pound to the dollar provided a model for austerity policies imposed by mussolini in italy when he took control of the italian state in the early 1920s in making her argument mattei identifies hawtrey director of financial enquiries in the british treasury for the entire interwar period as the eminence grise behind the austerity policies implemented by the treasury and the bank of england to restore convertibility at the prewar parity mattei s ideological position is obviously left of center and her attempt to link british austerity policies during the 1920s with the rise of fascism in italy furthers her ideological agenda although that agenda is not mine my only interest here is to examine her claim that hawtrey was the intellectual architect of the austerity policies she deplores i leave it to others to assess her broader historical claims in her introductory chapter mattei p 10 justifies her attention to hawtrey by claiming that his texts and memoranda would serve as the guidelines for british austerity after world war i describing the treasury officials sir basil blackett and sir otto niemeyer under whom hawtrey served as working at his side as if they were hawtrey s subordinates rather than the other way around at the end of the chapter mattei p 20 writes i was riveted by the evidence of hawtrey s persuasion of the other two bureaucrats and in turn how the two bureaucrats neither one a trained economist came to be missionaries in campaigns to export the british austerity agenda to other countries around the globe in a later passage p 171 she elaborates in the face of unrelenting opposition niemeyer and blackett needed solid intellectual grounds to urge the chancellor of the exchequer to move for dear money and drastic cuts in public expenditures in examining the controllers confidential treasury files virtually the only direct source of information we have about their economic beliefs one is struck by the ubiquity and influence of the economist ralph g hawtrey the primary source of economic knowledge for blackett and especially for niemeyer in fact there is ample evidence that hawtreyan economics refined and strengthened the economic stance of the senior treasury officials so as to enable the emergence of a full blown austerity doctrine given her emphasis on the documentary record left by hawtrey during his nearly three decades as the in house economist at the treasury i would have expected to see more than just the few direct quotations and citations from the voluminous internal memos written by hawtrey to his treasury colleagues to which mattei makes general reference the references to hawtrey s communications with his colleagues provide few specifics while the more numerous citations to his writings seem to misinterpret misrepresent or mischaracterize hawtrey s theoretical and policy views it should also be noted that mattei s estimation of hawtrey s influence at the treasury is not shared by other researchers into hawtrey s life and career r d c black who wrote an admiring biographical essay on hawtrey for the british academy of which hawtrey became a member in 1935 wrote dismissively of hawtrey s influence at the treasury hawtrey drew up many and varied reports and memoranda on economic and financial matters which are now to be found among the papers of senior treasury officials of that period but the impression prevails that they did not receive much attention and that the financial enquiries branch under hawtrey was something of a backwater r d c black ralph george hawtrey 1879 1975 in proceedings of the british academy 1977 p 379 susan howson in her biographical essay on hawtrey believed that hawtrey was influential eary in his tenure as director of financial enquiries primarily because of his important role in drafting the financial resolutions for the genoa conference of 1922 about which more will be said below but that his influence declined subsequently mattei cites both black and howson in her book but does not engage with their assesment of hawtrey s influence at treasury mattei also cites the unpublished doctoral dissertation of alan gaukroger on hawtrey which focuses specifically on his service as director of financial enquiries at the treasury but does not engage with his detailed assement based on exhaustive reading of relevant treasury memoranda of hawtrey s influence on his treasury colleagues and superiors here is how gaukroger characterizes those memoranda in the case of hawtrey who was to some extent an outsider to the very small and closely knit group of influential policy makers the written memorandum was his method of attempting to break into and influence the powerful central group many of hawtrey s memoranda were unsolicited he produced them because he was critical of some spect of government policy in some of these memoranda there is a marked tone of anger this was particularly apparent during the late 1920s when the united kingdom had returned to the gold standard and hawtrey believed that the bank of england was pursuing a foolish and unnecessarily high interest rate policy at this time his memoranda critical of bank or even treasury policy could for such a mild mannered man be quite savage in tone often his memoranda were produced as a result of a specific request on a very small number of occasions they were produced as a result of a direct request for guidance or information from the chancellor of the exchequer at other times hawtrey prepared a memorandum as a result of a parliamentary question often a senior colleague wanted support in reparing a memorandum and would seek to use hawtrey s expertise particularly with regard to currency and foreign exchange hawtrey would invariably write an unsolicited memorandum after press criticism of treasury policy a gaukroger the director of financial enquiries ph d thesis university of huddersfield 2008 pp 29 32 in criticizing the austerity doctrines and policies of the british treasury and the bank of england in the decade after world war i mattei mounts a comprehensive attack on hawtrey s views or what she inaccurately represents to be his views to which she unlike other researchers ascribes immense influence she begins with the decision to restore the gold standard and the subsequent deflationary policy adopted in the1920 22 period to reverse the wartime and postwar inflations and subsequently to restore the gold standard at the prewar parity of the pound to the dollar 4 86 mattei s overestimation of hawtrey s influence is evidenced by her failure even to mention the 1918 interim report of the cunliffe commission headed by the former governor of the bank of england lord cunliffe recommending the prompt restoration of the gold standard in as close a form as possible to the prewar gold standard although no precise parity was specified the goal of minimizing the departure from the prewar gold standard except for not reintroducing a full bodied gold coinage made the prewar parity to the dollar restored in 1919 to its prewar gold parity of 20 67 ounce the obvious benchmark for restoration her next object of criticism is hawtrey s advocacy of deflation in his 1919 article the gold standard to reverse if only partially the inflation during and after the war that had cut the purchasing power of the pound by roughly 60 the inflation especially the postwar inflation had been deeply unsettling and there was undoubtedly strong political pressure on the government to halt the inflation although opposed to both inflation and deflation hawtrey believed that some deflation was needed to achieve stabilization especially given that the us which had restored convertibility of the dollar into gold in june 1919 would likely adopt a deflationary policy mattei cites hawtrey s approval of the april 1920 increase in bank rate by the bank of england to an unprecedented 7 to break the inflationary spiral then underway inflation was quickly tamed but a brutal deflation followed while bank rate remained at 7 for more than 12 months before a half a percent cut in april 1922 with further half percent cuts at bimonthly intervals till the rate was reduced to 3 in july 1922 hawtrey s support for deflation was less categorical and durable than mattei claims prices having risen much faster than wages since the war started hawtrey thought that deflation would cause prices to fall before downward pressure on wages started see g c peden the treasury and british public policy 1906 1959 oxford oxford university press p 154 once unemployment increased and wages came under significant downward pressure hawtrey began to call for easing of the dear money policy of the bank montague norman governor of the bank of england aware of hawtrey s criticisms of bank of england policy shared his annoyance with hawtrey in a letter to his counterpart at the federal reserve benjamin strong mentioning criticism from a leading light of the treasury who made it his particular business to quarrel with the policy of the treasury and the bank of england see g c peden id pp 155 56 hawtrey later articulated the basis for his criticism in 1920 it was justifiable to keep up bank rate so long as there was any uncertainty whether inflation had been successfully checked but even in the late summer of 1920 there was no real doubt that this was so and by november 1920 it was abundantly clear that the danger was in the opposite direction and was that of excessive deflation hawtrey a century of bank rate london longmans green and co 1938 p 133 mattei further attacks hawtrey for his central role in the genoa conference of 1922 which besides resolutions on other topics of international concern adopted resolutions aimed at restoring the international gold standard as early as in his 1919 article on the gold standard and in his important book currency and credit of the same year hawtrey was warning urgently that restoring the gold standard could cause severe possibly disastrous deflation unless countries rejoining the gold standard cooperated to moderate their demand for gold reserves when setting fixed parities between their currencies and gold hawtrey therefore proposed that countries other than the us and britain rejoin the gold standard by discharging their obligations in dollars or pound sterling which were either in the case of the dollar already convertible into gold or in the case of sterling likely to be convertible in the future by freeing national central banks from the need to hold actual gold reserves to discharge their obligations the genoa proposals aimed to limit the international demand for gold thereby moderating or eliminating the deflationary pressure otherwise entailed by restoring the gold standard additionally the resulting demand by central banks to hold sterling denominated liabilities would ease the pressure on the british balance of payments thereby making room for the bank of england to reduce bank rate ignoring hawtrey s anti deflationary intent in drafting those resolution mattei focuses on the legal independence for central banks proposed by the resolutions intended to insulate them from demands by national governments to print money to fund fiscal deficits money printing by governments or by banks under government pressure to do so having been historically a primary cause of inflation mattei further misrepresents hawtrey s call for monetary management to avoid the likely deflationary consequences of an unmanaged restoration of the prewar gold standard as evidence that hawtrey desired to impose an even more draconian austerity on british workers than an unmanaged restoration of the gold standard would have imposed thereby imputing to hawtrey an intention precisely the opposite of what he meant to accomplish mattei equates hawtrey s support for central bank independence in the genoa resolutions with hostility to democracy quoting from hawtrey s 1925 article currency and public administration which she suggests betrays a technocratic and anti democratic mindset...
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