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et a list with only one item on it ophnfb for some reason they design software these days to give inconsistent responses maybe the reason is some kind of corner cutting to save money but it seems to me the reason is just pure stupidity well that s out of the way i hope it s not my stupidity it took me fifteen minutes to duplicate the list with three results so i could write this post when you re old as i am 15 minutes is a big chunk of time remaining the three series offer the data as an index 2009 100 as percent change at annual rate and as percent change from quarter one year ago if i start with the index i can get percent change from quarter one year ago easily i can also get percent change though not at an annual rate usually i just use the index in whatever form i need without a thought today for some reason there was a thought i can compare the percent change at annual rate series to the index in its percent change form and i can see whether they just multiply by four or if they do something more complicated to get the at annual rate thing so i divided the percent change at annual rate series by the percent change form of the index graph 1 nope not just multiplied by four they do something more complicated of course it s close to four it would have to be and maybe you could multiply by four and no one would ever know the difference but it wouldn t be right okay the dallas fed has a page that shows the calculation annualizing data i printed the dallas fed page as a pdf file two pages and made it available for download posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments monday october 24 2016 some gossip about alan greenspan from thoughts on teaching economics after the crash at medium com by karl whelan professor of economics at university college dublin greenspan s model alan greenspan was not an academic he was a consultant who leveraged his substantial washington connections into an appointment as fed chairman and his positions on economics were very far from the mainstream i worked for alan greenspan from 1996 to 2002 and met him quite a few times he is a man of many talents but it s an understatement to say that his approach to economics was idiosyncratic it was an interesting combination of obsessive analysis of high frequency economic data and extreme right wing views picked up from his time as part of ayn rand s inner circle hard to believe as it may be the most powerful economist in the world held views that were very far from those taught in mainstream economics degrees from is yellen starting a civil war at the fed by monetary watch greenspan more or less ruled the fomc with an iron fist as recounted by frederick sheehan in his book panderer to power greenspan himself controlled everything about the fomc s messaging and he drafted the fomc statements that were to be issued after the meeting without any input from the committee even yellen herself who had served on the committee in the 1990s said being a fed governor was a great job if you like to travel around the country reading speeches written by staff posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday october 23 2016 change in debt and change in gdp if you take the ratio of two change in values the change in this divided by the change in that usually you get a graph with a few very large spikes and everything else too small to see i try to avoid graphs like that but sometimes you have to look here is the change in tcmdo debt relative to the change in gdp from fred graph 1 change in debt relative to change in gdp doesn t show me anything but one tall spike i ve been thinking about using the hodrick prescott filter to soften the changes in two change in series so i can look at the ratio of filtered values can t do hodrick prescotts at fred i brought the numbers into excel it s quarterly data but for extra smoothing i used the bigger smoothing constant that s a default for monthly data here s what i got graph 2 i still have that tall spike but instead of being a momentary phenomenon it looks like it lasted 20 years that s a little silly what s interesting though apart from the spike is that there seems to be a persistent upward trend from the 1950s to the present day apart from the spike and some possible wiggles i reduced the smoothing to a low number and took another look graph 3 the spike is still there now spread over only a few years and there are lots of little ups and downs probably related to recessions look how small the wiggle is between 2006 and 2009 that s the crisis that tall spike of 2001 is really something of an anomaly looks like there was a particularly small increase in gdp and a good size increase in debt at the same time in the source data i have the value 2 53 for the second quarter of 2001 665 07 for the third quarter and 9 25 for the fourth quarter that third quarter number is a fluke i deleted the third quarter value and left the cell blank in the spreadsheet the hp function reads it as zero and i changed the smoothing factor back to the number i started with here s how the graph came out this time graph 4 now we re getting somewhere there is a definite up trend with some wiggle to it for the whole period shown there are exceptional lows centered on 1991 and 2009 you will recognize the 2009 event as our crisis and the great recession even though the smoothing factor pushes the peak back before 2003 maybe we could say that the smoothing merged a normal wiggle the 2001 recession with the large decline of the great recession just a thought i try to be flexible reading these things the other low 1991 i think i know what that one is there was a general slowdown in the growth of debt that lasted from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s i looked at that slowdown before note the rapid increase following the 1991 low that increase was made possible by the big decline that preceded it and the rapid increase in debt to gdp provided the funds that allowed the growth of spending that created the good years of the 1990s so why have we not had comparable good years after the 2009 low i don t know yet but i have some thoughts to explore 1 the uptrend after 2009 starts at a much higher level there s a lot more debt now than in the 1990s 2 the uptrend after 2009 is less steep so there is more of a delay before the good years this time and those years might not be as good 3 the uptrend after 2009 has not yet reached its peak there is still time the good years may yet come the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday october 22 2016 unexplained posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 2 comments friday october 21 2016 unexpected posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday october 20 2016 at least congress could say their hands are clean at wall street on parade the fed has been winging it for eight years it s time for congress to step up since the wall street crash in 2008 the article says things have not been good they point out that capacity utilization is lower now than it was in 2007 and they mention the sharp decline since november 2014 they show this graph to which i ve added a bright red line since 2008 i think they miss the bigger picture here s the opening paragraph since the wall street crash in 2008 crippled the u s economy congress has played the role of a spectator at a big league baseball game munching on popcorn and licking its greasy fingers soiled with corporate campaign loot as the real players on the field the federal reserve controlled the action and the final paragraph it s long past the time for congress to wash off those greasy fingers and do its job but other than the washing of hands there is no specific suggestion as to what should be done the best i can suppose is that the article calls for a change of emphasis from monetary policy to fiscal yet as they point out since the crash the federal debt has doubled to 19 4 trillion so i m not sure what they have in mind perhaps they are saying you can tell by current conditions that the doubling was clearly insufficient yeah i think they mean the federal debt has only doubled to 19 4 trillion while the balance sheet of the fed has more than quadrupled i guess they want the federal debt to double again to get it up in the quadruple range too but then scott sumner would say you can tell by current conditions that the quadrupling of the fed s balance sheet was clearly insufficient so maybe people will soon be calling for an octupling of debt and balance sheets and after that a 16 tupling maybe myself i think fixing the economy requires a little more finesse of thought posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments wednesday october 19 2016 what if we tax corporate interest expense this is the effective corporate income tax rate graph 1 effective corporate income tax rate we looked at it recently the graph today shows annual not quarterly data this is the money corporations paid out as interest expense graph 2 the cost of interest to corporations interest is a tax deductible business expense what if it wasn t if interest wasn t tax deductible the corporations would have to pay tax on the money they spend paying interest how much would the tax have been to find out we can multiply the interest cost shown on graph 2 by the tax rate shown on graph 1 graph 3 additional tax paid by corporations if interest was not deductible for the most recent year the tax rate is a little over 25 the interest expense is a little over 800 billion and the tax on that amount comes to a little over 200 billion assuming that everything else stays the same what if we take this additional tax that corporations would have paid and see what happens to the federal deficits when the extra revenue is added in graph 4 actual deficit red and deficit reduced by taxing interest expense blue assuming that everything else stays the same the federal budget goes to surplus in the 1970s it goes to surplus in the 1980s it goes to surplus in the 1990s it even goes to surplus in the 2000s of course everything else would not stay the same corporations would borrow less adjustments would have to be made perhaps there would be fewer mergers and acquisitions perhaps policy would be forced to shift away from the reliance on credit i can t tell you specifically what would change i can tell you though that there would be less debt and less credit use and i can tell you that our economy can function on less credit there was far less credit in use in the 1960s for example than there is today and the economy was good posted by the arthurian at 4 48 am 2 comments tuesday october 18 2016 the corporate tax burden what does everybody complain about all the time taxes this graph shows the corporate income tax in red graph 1 corporate income tax in red and corporate interest cost in blue corporate income tax in red and corporate interest cost in blue and what do they complain about taxes posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 3 comments monday october 17 2016 the personal income tax back to soi for more statistics on income table 8 personal income per national income and product accounts nipa and taxable income and individual income tax per statistics of income soi 1950 2012 the file is histab8 xls it gives personal income taxable income and taxable income as a percent of personal income it gives the total income tax in billions and as a percent of personal income and as a percent of taxable income i m just looking for those last two yesterday we looked at the corporate income tax as a percent of taxable corporate income profits and as a percent of gross corporate income i want to do the same now for personal income graph 1 the tax amounts to about 10 of gross personal income or about 20 of taxable the personal tax is lower than the corporate tax as a percent of taxable income but the personal tax is much higher than the corporate as a percent of gross graph 2 now you know the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments sunday october 16 2016 the corporate income tax take the taxes paid on corporate income divide by corporate profits before tax this gives a measure of the effective corporate income tax rate graph 1 the effective corporate income tax rate this graph is comparable to the one at wikipedia both show for example the rise during the first half of the 1980s and the fall around 2000 the effective rate runs from a high around 50 in 1951 to a low around 25 today you want to remember though that the corporate income tax is a tax on profits not gross income corporate profits essentially are the part of gross income that is not spent corporations don t pay income tax on the income they spend that s why businesses always collect receipts for their spending they document that spending so they can subtract it from their taxable the corporate income tax only applies to corporate income that is not sunk back into the business i m probably making tax accounts heads explode by saying this because it s a crude generalization but it gives you the idea the spending corporations do is about twice the size of gdp the gross income of u s corporations is the total of the income they spend plus the income they don t spend we can estimate this gross income by taking gdp multiplying by two and adding corporate profits roughly then this graph shows taxes paid on corporate income as a percent of gross corporate income graph 2 the effective income tax rate on gross corporate income roughly 1 of gross income since the 1980s suppose we make it easier to compare graphs 1 and 2 by putting the two lines together on one graph graph 3 corporate income tax as a percent of profit blue and gross income red the red line shows the tax as a percent of gross corporate income the blue line shows the tax as a percent of taxable corporate income posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments saturday october 15 2016 the extent of business total receipts note than in the data file i ve been using they list both total receipts and business receipts for businesses categories of receipts they also list different forms of business including all businesses and corporations i want to avoid confusion between business receipts of corporations and the receipts of all businesses i think it makes best sense to put the category of receipts first and the form of business last this is what i get total receipts of all businesses business receipts of all businesses total receipts of corporations business receipts of corporations just to avoid confusion so anyway i took total receipts for the two forms of business and put them together on a graph graph 1 for corporations the 1980 2012 average is 1 9 times the size of gdp for all businesses the average is 2 2 times gdp the excel file posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments friday october 14 2016 something i did not know stable at 90 thru 1995 decline thereafter something in the tax code posted by the arthurian at 4 00 am 0 comments thursday october 13 2016 getting corporate tax data is like pulling ...
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