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如果仲係唔相信政治關經濟事, 咁無話可說, 呢幾日都已經無咩心機去理個股市, 因為而家連家園都無, 563, 002, 1744085253364357767, 946476, 料中期純利顯著下降, 呢單新聞, 其實都唔係咩咁出奇, 因為東亞一直都係大陸做好多的貸款生意, 而大家如果有留意上面的經濟的話都知呢幾年係差左好多, 趁仲未通過要講壊話就好講晒佢, 無論係國企銀行定係民營銀行, 壊帳都已經成為重點, 更何況東亞呢間外資, 點可能可以同上面其他銀行鬥, 要做到生意就唯有做其他銀行唔做的生意, 但因此個風險都大好多, 今次就話因為貸款減值損失而預期中期業績會出現顯著下降, 預期減值損失, 而佢上年中期業績股東應佔溢利都只係唔夠, 咁姐係話有可能上半年無錢賺, 咁當然而家就未肯定最後個, 減值損失係幾多, 話可能最後無咁多, 但個市場又點會只係睇你而家呢一筆, 更重要係其他係大陸的貸款情況係點, 由其東亞有四成貸款係大陸, 650, 1115, 372, 東亞2018年報, www3, 0328, ltn20190328489_c, 946619, 美銀美林下調東亞, 目標價至, 對內地信貸風險憂慮持續, 946663, 中金下調東亞, 評級至, 降目標價至, 當然東亞都有講到一級資本預期, 月底都仲有, 話高過要求, 簡單一句姐係無問題, 但派息方面就當然無講會唔會影響, 而其他貸款係點又當然隻字不提, 呢樣野先至係令人最擔心, 出文個日東亞就跌左, 唔止穿晒, 周低位, 年年頭個陣個價, 無眼睇, 361, 241571310193140206, 一路好走, 血債血償, 紀念烈士, 297, 7593975879496430457, 上一篇講左東亞就發左盈警, 個陣blog主都已經有講到東亞派息好有可能會因貸款減值損失而影響, 點知今日就講到東亞有機會要注資落東亞中國, 947231, 不時檢討東亞中國資本狀況, 如有需要會注資, 簡單黎講姐係個仔無錢要老豆磅水, 咁對老豆的現金就當然會少左, 咁的話派息的機會又細左, 又或者要減派息, blog主一直都無買過銀行股, 因為銀行股本身係海嘯之後都已經唔同晒, 一黎受到唔同的監管, 二黎本身業務都無咩大增長, 而東亞就更加係好有問題的一間本地銀行股, 周不時就有股權分爭, 又或者業務出問題, 因此blog主對東亞都只係保持食花生的心態去留意, 有線財經都有講到東亞, 大家可以去睇下市場點睇東亞, 當blog主呢個九流之輩都見到有問題, 中環班人又點會唔開火攻擊, 18t22, 087, 18t19, 5639026238258910303, 今次要短評的股, 主之前都已經寫過佢, 也都有講過佢呢一個業務一直都係表現唔太好, 到左而家最終都係出事, 搞到要盈警, 隻股票就係中電, msohyperlink, 料中期因澳洲業務商譽減值而錄虧損, 主係之前拆解中電業務個陣, 2018, 傳送門, 已經有講到澳洲的業務一直都比唔到應有的盈利, 一直都只不過係得個做, 年中電就已經做過一次減值, 個陣就減左, 年後就再黎多一次減值, 預期就要減, 原因就話澳洲聯邦政府管制個電價, 而再加埋發電量因, 為煤炭供應, 電廠維修, 而下降, 但原來呢樣野係今年, 月公佈的, 年季度簡報, 已經有講到, 仲講到明會重大影響到未來的收入, 530, 670, 506, 2019年季度簡報, 1月至3月, 而更重要的資料, 就當然又唔係一般的文件或者新聞到搵到, 而係中電同分析員的電話會議的講稿, 呢篇英文稿, clpgroup, investors, information, site, anaylst, 20brief, 20document, transcript_20190620, 就好值得大家去睇下到底而家澳洲的情況係點, 主就唔一一, copy, 晒出黎, 關於本地業務同埋整體公司業績, 主就想節錄出黎比大家睇下, 等大家唔會係中電出中期業績個陣嚇親, dennis, daiwa, securities, finally, much, probably, happening, would, massively, impacted, energyaustralia, thank, ceo, your, third, was, recall, implications, clearly, looked, whole, seeing, permitted, return, india, sell, cdpq, taken, consideration, confidence, increase, end, first, quarter, cannot, any, statements, behalf, board, when, materiality, totality, impairment, quite, number, leave, judge, relatively, small, overall, 講到香港同印度的盈利都有下跌, 但股息就會有, 的增長, 仲話今次的減值唔會對整體業務唔會有大影響, wilson, ling, hsbc, actually, past, couple, engaged, achieved, fy18, due, change, could, mean, taking, step, back, meaning, possibly, roic, generated, ask, about, things, maybe, keep, growing, segment, having, base, ability, operate, two, main, south, wales, victoria, where, generating, portfolio, sized, those, businesses, structurally, with, provide, natural, hedge, robust, model, approach, than, three, since, 2015, possible, shape, improve, costs, operating, efficiently, everything, retain, develop, through, efficiency, remains, objective, welcomed, regulators, caused, shortage, supply, sees, extreme, weather, putting, pressure, electricity, penetration, renewables, system, means, does, investments, made, stabilise, reduce, volatility, key, essentially, good, 姐係唔好期, 澳洲係短期內會有咩重大的盈利增長, 而早前推展的, 就要再等下先至會見到, 更重要的係最尾個句, 幾年仲要投資落澳洲先至可以令業務回復, 而今日明報就有篇新聞以, 去形容中電係澳洲的業務, 準確不過, 20190621, s00004, 1561055562999, 慶幸的係一班大行對中電都手下留情, 只係下調目標價, 無改變個評級, 咁當然佢的股價就當然都受番咁上下沽壓, 但對於中電呢隻收息股出盈警, 市場都算仁慈, 可能而家只係影響個面數, 派息唔會有即時影響, 今次的短評就去到呢到, 下次再搵其他股票同大家分享, 中電發盈警, 223, 7936749018227165416, 952995, 00066, 上半年需為紅磡事件及屯馬線費用撥備約20億元, 唔可以話估唔到, 但當然都係唔想呢篇文出現, 港鐵終於都要為沙中線撥備, 0718, ltn20190718138_c, 份公告, 入面有幾點可以講下, 分階段啟用屯馬綫的建議, 第一階段涉及屯馬綫大圍站至啟德站的商業服務, 目標開通時間為, 年第一季, 呢點就應該無咩大突出, 因為大圍至啟德一直都無咩問題, 而家最終都係分部開通, 本公司將會在不影響其法律責任的原則為基礎支付紅磡事件所產生的費用以及與分階段啟用屯馬綫, 段所述, 相關的若干費用, 同時就最終承擔相關費用責任一事上保留其權利, 本公司現時對該等費用的最佳估計為合共約, 億港元, 有鑒於此, 本公司將於截至, 日止六個月的綜合損益表內作出一項, 億港元的撥備, 該撥備金額並無計算可向任何其他人士提出的任何潛在追討在內, 本公司與政府將繼續進行磋商, 務求就紅磡事件及雙方各自就沙田至中環綫項目的造價及紅磡事件所產生的費用以及與分階段啟用屯馬綫相關的若干費用的付款責任達成整體, 解決方案, 沙中線的模式係服務經營權模式, 政府出錢比港鐵, 港鐵再搵唔同的建築商興建, 呢到所講的20億無講到係比邊方面, 但好肯定的係20億唔會係最終數字, 因為港鐵同政府仲要傾點計數, 而中間紅磡站的問題到底係港鐵定係樓下的建築商要負責, 到而家都肯定唔會有答案, 港鐵作為項目管理人, 今次一定唔會收足錢, 但會收少左幾多, 港鐵使唔使因紅磡站而負法律責任, 港鐵會唔會追建築商, 有可能, 睇左份公告, blog主可以講的就係港鐵都唔知將來點, 不論係第二段幾時開通, 定係同政府點拆條數, 一律無答案, blog主都唔知仲可以講咩, 唯一可以講就係派息政策就已經係公告入面講左不變, 等睇聽日股價點反映, 港鐵發盈警, 447, 7586790551174078337, 最終國泰都係要玩lcc, low, cost, carrier, 收購香港快運航空, 0719, ltn201907191021_c, 國泰係19年上半年, 貨運跌左唔少, blog主相信呢個係其中一個原因令到管理層最後都要開辦廉航, 而家就無公佈到個作價係幾多, 而且由於已經過左上半年, 呢單收購應該都趕唔到係半年結份報告到寫呢單deal, 而家就唯有等國泰遲下開記招個陣公佈更多消息, 當然而家改唔改名仲係早, 由其港龍都過左好多年先至正式改名, 同埋相信國泰都係想分番開兩個brand營運, 咁就唔使洗錢去提升香港快運個image, 國泰航空, 國泰港龍, 國泰快運, 183, 756444413572514469, 好耐無係呢到寫過文, 特意今日update下, 政經不分, 由其公司的業務係唔同國家都有生意, 中國最叻的就係用經濟手段去要脅其他, 包括國家同公司, 台灣如是, 公司都如是, 六月之後, 香港唔再係以前的香港, 係之前blog主寫國泰的業績, 最多都只係話佢的業務好左定差左, 而家估唔到佢最大的問題竟然係政治部分, blog主特登搵番國泰2018年年報, 入面無一部分係有提及到政治因素, 政治不確定對股票市場係一個極不明朗因素, 但blog主更加知道, 香港獨特的法治先至可以令到香港唔同中國其他地區, 外國投資者除左研究單一股票外, 整個市場都會係研究之內, 市場不同會為整個市場內的股票提供折扣或者溢價, 而近排香港本身的溢價就開始下跌, 最明顯的就係煤氣, 當然佢的業績係差, 但唔同以前跌到咁上下就會有人買貨, 而家係唔多見到個價有承接, 以前一直都有好多人經常話政治唔關佢事, 相信而家已經無人會再咁講, 唔好再話香港無左中國會死, 無左香港中國可能根本唔存在, bloomberg就有篇文講香港到底對中國幾重要, articles, 916, 6084909218790303696, 今日香港財經界最大單新聞, 都好有可能係近年來最離譜的事, 首先你要知的係咩係現貨同期貨, 以下係最簡單的例子話比大家知, 唔係到同大家講咩到期又交收又點, 現貨就姐係股票, 期貨就包括左大家聽得多的牛熊窩輪, 同期權, 就姐係期貨, 就姐係期權, 點解會話係最大單新聞, 因為期貨係金融市場向來都係好重要, 無論係炒家定係莊家都係期貨而唔係現貨玩, 因此期貨一死就可以講係等同無大戶係個市場, 再者期貨唔同現貨, 交易時間係去到凌晨, 咁投資者就可以再係香港現貨收市後跟據歐美市場而去炒賣同對沖, blog主起身個陣係大約係香港時間下午2點, 提番讀者大家blog主人在外地, 已經係咁收到push話死機, 但個陣其實仲未停期貨交易, 係再之後先至話真正停止, 聽日重開, 咁一眾期貨投資者就眼白白睇住個市無得平倉, 又或者轉去黑期, 姐係轉去新加坡做買賣, 而點解話係近年來最離譜的事, 因為blog主近五六年都無聽過呢d咁的野係香港發生, 美國就間唔中出現, 但因為美國有好多個交易所, 所以就無咩問題, 無論係英國脫歐定係trump成功當選, 個陣全球個市場都好動盪, 點動盪法, 上一分鐘就升300點, 下一分鐘就可以跌300, 脫歐個日恆指最高係21034, 最低係19662, 但香港個股票市場都無事, 完全提供到穩定股票市場比大家, 金管局仲出黎話交易正常, 而家就竟然會發生咁的事, 仲要係發生左之後港交所無停期貨, 更加唔好講停現貨, 夜晚港交所出左通告話聽日照常開市, 但唔敢包聽日會無事, 而且聽朝一定有大把炒家要平倉, 聽朝相信都會好亂, 聽日比番, 比大家, 但又會唔會等於無事, 2288588548068132, futures, options, today, 377, 134541350130345632, 今次唔講股票, 而係講金融術語, 而呢個term大家係近排都時不時會聽到, 就係孳息曲線, 首先就介紹大家睇左由vox所製作的片, 雖然係英文但已經好簡單介紹左咩係孳息曲線, xiihjrewxni, chart, predicts, recessions, disclamer, 假設你已經知道一般債券的模式, 運作同term, 如果唔識的話睇落去會辛苦d, 公司要集資, 主要就係上市同發債, 而政府就當然只有發債呢一條路, 而美國政府貴為借錢大國, 當然就發左好多債, 當中唔同的債有唔同的到期時間, 孳息曲線就係一條曲線去表示美國債券係唔同年期的收益率, 美債的年期有分三個大類, 一年期以內, bills, 一至十年, notes, 同埋十年至三十年, 美國政府仲未cls到發行一百年債券, 不過好似話又再研究, 咁當然唔同年期就會唔同的yield, 基本上年期越長, 個利率就越高, 但有時候長年期的利率低過短年期的利率, 呢個現象就稱為利率倒掛, 一般市場主要睇住的係兩年同十年相差, 以下條link就清楚顯示到兩個年期係過往的相差, fred, stlouisfed, org, series, t10y2y, minus, federal, reserve, bank, louis, 如果大家拉長時間黎睇, 就幾清楚見到每次衰退前都會出現一個特別現象, 就係兩年收益率比十年為高, 因此市場一直都用呢個指標去預測黎緊個金融市場會唔會出現衰退, vox條片就已經提供左一個原因點解, 早排八月就出現左兩年期同十年期倒掛, 市場就即出現大跌, crash, blamed, 800, point, 過去幾十年呢個現象雖然只係出現左幾次, 但衰退都會係幾年後出現, 咁今次倒掛之後黎緊幾年係未都會出現衰退, 有人話會有人話唔會, 會的就當然指出過往歷史已經證明左, 唔會的話現時債券市場受到qe影響, 利率已經唔可以用以前個一套理論去解釋, 例如負利率的出現, 但blog主想講的係金融市場經常講this, time, different, 但到最後history, repeats, itself, 可能現時仲未出現衰退, 但唔可以忽略傳統的學說, 而且債券市場好多時都係唔錯的指標去監測股票市場, 大家都係要多留意下呢一條曲線, 孳息曲線, 132, 7718329092590992155, 四個月前的六四, 因為黃台仰同李東昇係流亡後首次公開出現, 特登去左柏林, 個日接受一個記者的訪問, 我指出五十年不變, 去到第幾年就會不再存在, 原來個答案係下一年, 人在海外, 可以做的野就只有文宣, 有份幫手928, 929其中一個海外地點的活動, 也都當然受到某些人的問候, 幸好只係普通口角並無肢體, 也都唔使叫警察幫手, 係同香港的動物完全唔同, 有人睇住再加提供直線電話, 只可以叫大家小心, 983, 102813360704708536, 終於都完成晒我的論文之旅, 代表終於都有番時間比番大家, 之前都有唔少人想我寫唔同的股票, 係時候找數, 但今次個post就首先跟進番以前的一個post, 話說國泰係今年年頭出左18年的盈喜, 但到左近掛就相反晒係咁話市場環境艱難重重, yahoo, 8c7, 205400952, 國泰變相盈警, 下半年無起色, 9月載客量跌7, 訪港預訂遠遜往時, 正如之前都有講過, 國泰每個月都會公佈客貨運的數字, 因此blog主今日就特登搵晒國泰由17年起每個月的數字, 比大家可以睇到佢係19年係點樣下滑, 由其係6月之後係北美跌得好勁, 852, 睇唔到的話可以download幅圖之後再睇, 跟住如果同個股價放埋一齊睇就會明白到點解近排到又再跌過, avvxseij, 0ju_sisfzxhx_zn5nkxermx8kjvmgmsz1z0czg4ldjqhlgmxo6ke1pgwy0r5khboaakurtarozc10tiny2fytmtcqkcw4pphordryymxj5_ile9kgtti3twp7p9pon4i41sr, rvj7q, 613, 1111, 352, 為左拎過去咁多個月的數據, 特登寫左python去抄佢每個月公佈的數據, 如果你有興趣想要數據的話留言話我知點比你, 國泰過去三年客貨運數據, 499, 1511632111468044924, 一隻期權, 一隻牛熊可以一日就死, 但原來一隻股都可以一日內跌過九成半, 今日香港的股票市場又衝出國際, 講緊的係3313雅高控股, 雅高控股, 03313, 技術分析, technical, 加權移動平均線, wma, 移動平均線, sma, 指數移動平均線, ema, 保力加通道, bollinger, 相對強弱指數, rsi, 436, servlet, fontsize, 15mindelay, titlestyle, vol, 100, chartwidth, 880, chartheight, 600, stockid, 003313, type, logostyle, 仲可以有咩講, 只可以食花生, 引爆個炸彈的原因就係因為入唔到msci中國指數, 一隻股一日可以跌幾多, 373, 3435733427412273725, 今日見到呢單新聞, 其實並唔係咩突發野, 也都唔係咩咁驚人, 因為根本一直都發生緊, 只不過係個主角出名所以先至引起話題, 1495954, 20191204, 羅家聰稱, 或與過往涉反修例言論有關, 因為blog主屋企有裝到有線, 因此周不時都會見到羅家聰, 簡稱kc, 做節目, 一直睇開佢都係交銀的首席經濟師, 而到左今日金融時報就有佢的訪問, 被指因為同交銀的合作空間唔再存在, 因此被離職, 銀行或者金融業根本一直都係到換緊血, 開頭中資一直都搵本地或者外國人坐鎮, 因為上面根本就無咁的人才, 90年代初有唔少的香港人幫手北上發展金融業, 但到左而家唔少的中國海歸完左學業就入呢d中資直接坐正, 佢地可能只係有學歷而無實際經驗, 而且做事手法都同香港人或者外國人完全唔同, 因此唔少做左好多年的人都被迫離開, 有d就去左做fintech, 而有d就直接離開香港, kc呢類極高層的職位除左大貓或者少量外資投行之外, 中資根本唔會再有本地人出現, 全部都係空降, 係咁的情況下間公司的管治都會同上面掛鉤, 好快唔止呢d高層位, 連中層的位都只會係由上面的人做, 之前就唔比分析師唱衰中國的經濟, 而家就因言論方向不同而被離職, 咁你可以諗下將來香港的金融業會變成點, 好快遲下返工第一件事要做的就係唱國歌, 唔係願榮光歸香港, 羅家聰, 3652086739055563793, a044, normal, 曾經問過朋友, 如果要你做一個2019年香港大事回顧, 但唔包括同送中條例有關的新聞, 你會點做, 0521, 諗左好耐我都諗唔到有咩其他的新聞, 最後睇番蘋果昔日先至記得番d, bd6c, 以下為部分我搵到較為重點的新聞, cfc3, cdn, medium, 1000, imagecaption, rel, noopener, 沙中綫造假, c601, 港鐵行駛中列車相撞, 5281, 戴耀廷, 陳健民, 邵家臻, 黃浩銘佔中判刑, eb73, 旺角騷亂判刑, c073, 黃台仰, 李東昇在德國獲難民庇護, 5da0, 鄭若驊無申報物業, 3e53, 豬隻發現非洲豬瘟, 9c5c, 曾蔭權獲終審法院裁定上訴得直, f5cf, 港鐵撞石屎躉出軌, empty, ae6c, 6px, 240px, position, absolute, 256px, hidden, 33px, describedby, alertdialog, 70px, opacity, 284px, visible, host, 400px, min, 200px, label, close, button, arrowup, 240, 5px, arrowimplbefore, arrowimplafter, 2019年香港大事回顧, 不包含逃犯條例版, 369, 8359067212086261166, 好耐無係到update, 更加好耐無寫過長文, 唔知到底仲有幾多人有睇呢個blog, 近呢幾個月都因為返左實習後忙左好多, 都無咩時間去寫長文, 本身仲寫緊一直都拖住的恆地, 但到左而家都已經要重新再寫過, 2020年, 當各香港人都希望會更好個陣, 點都估唔到17年前的事件又再發生, 而香港係比17年前表現更加荒謬, 身處海外的我, 當開始知道又有可能爆發類似沙士, 香港已經係到開始搶口罩, 搶口罩呢樣野係17年前係無咁嚴重, 而當我屋企人都問我呢邊有無口罩, 就已經知道有幾嚴重, 最後都寄左一箱速遞返香港, 而香港的經濟就係仲未有好轉的情況再受打擊, 好肯定嚴重過03年沙士, 當年過左dot, 後都有短暫的回復先至到沙士, 今次係完全雙重打擊, 而且香港的經濟就比以前更加依賴中國, 好大程度就係因為沙士後推行的自遊行, 服務業死晒, 就算其他行業都因為不同程度的後備方案而影響, 唔少friend係農曆新年後都無返過公司, 可能有d人唔記得, 但沙士後其實香港都受過幾次疫症影響, 例如豬流感, 當年一下子封左間酒店隔離7日, 好多人話反應過敏, 但起碼香港唔會好似而家咁個個2盒tax, 股票方面, 大家係時候留意番自己的股票有無機會受到影響, 到左3月相信唔少都會出通告指出個影響, 首先就當然係隻國泰, 293, 上年買左快運, 仲諗住攻打廉航, 點知而家整個航空死晒, 相信國泰近排的炒人仲未夠, 但點炒都唔會對盤數有咩實質幫手, 另一行業就係能源股, 好似港華燃氣, 1083, 而家中國已經停晒工業, 港華燃氣有一半係供應比工商業, 售氣量會受到打擊, 間接類股就當然有零售收租股, 有睇新聞都知已經要減租留客, 最後要講的係九倉系, 之前有寫過九倉分拆, 到左今日就終於等到第二步, 但呢一步就相信好少人估到, blog主都估唔到, 睇番各大報紙都係無一個有估中, 因為竟然係吳光正家族私有化會德豐, 而市場, 包括埋blog主, 到停牌個陣都係估會德豐收購九倉, 分拆九置就係為左會德豐唔使食整間九倉咁大件, blog主仲未睇過個deal, 但經過有線一彼, 相信一定唔會係對小股東公平, 大家可以繼續睇戲咁留意發展, 相信都無咩人會持有會德豐, like, share, 戴頭盔時間, 0px, 本人並非持牌人士, 本人意見純屬分享, 本文章不應視為任何投資之建議或邀請, 投資涉及風險, 如有疑問請諮詢專業投資意見, 188, 8285229363545550429, 746, vix再次去到50, 417, 783, 美國yield, curve一年變化, 841, 1274, 422, 希臘10年債息, 753, 300, 美國長債etf今年價格變動, 622, 734, 542, 中石油宣布天然氣進口遭遇不可抗力, 488, 1219, 254, 期油今年價格變動, 圖片說故事, 102, 5793813873095047343, 早一兩個禮拜有朋友問我點睇個股市, 當時我仲話只係個股市下跌, 仲未見到個件事件出現, 話應該唔會有咩嚴重事情發生, 估唔到只係隔左幾日就已經發生, 所講的就係流動性風險, 簡單黎講姐係市場無錢, 要睇市場有無流動性風險, 簡單可以睇幾個指標, 美國的話係睇repo, repurchase, agreement, 隔夜回購利率, 唔知咩黎就可以睇下呢條, investopedia, repurchaseagreement, asp, link, 三月頭就開始上升, usa, idusl1n2aw0lk, 香港就可以睇hibor, 通常睇隔夜至一個禮拜, 渣打香港, 企業提早借貸或導致短期市場資金較緊張, 而更重要的係美國fed竟然係三月短短兩個禮拜就將個利率減左1, 第二次仲要係禮拜日美國時間下午, 原因係除左減息之外仲同埋另外幾間央行聯手合作增加流動性, 而日本央行係其中一間, 因此好有可能要係日本開市前出statement, 只可惜的係fed連三日都等唔到要係禮拜日突然減息加qe, blog主一見到新聞都嚇左一下, 而黑期個市都只係比左幾個鐘的升市, 之後係點大家都知, blog主聽到fed又玩qe個陣好自然問左一個問題, 就係d錢會泵去邊, 當年08就因為銀行出事所以qe注資入金融, 但今次係整個經濟都有問題, 多左錢唔會令個疫情消失, 而且盲目qe只係會令效果事倍工半, 要增加流動性blog主覺得暫時只要各大央行聯手support再減息都已經夠, 只係希望blog主能力差睇唔到更背後的問題, 寫呢篇文的前一晚美國就黎個跌三千點比大家睇, 有今生無來世, 大家可以做的就係諗下點樣保住份工, 香港的失業率終於都升, 而且肯定只係個開始, 399, 8709460766551032692, 900, 430, 1207, 228, 呢兩幅圖, 可以話比美股又跌停更為震撼, 因為證明市場完全唔要任何資產, 只要美金, 因此都出現埋以下兩個奇景, 353, 1214, 186, 397, 1209, 210, 金股債三樣一齊跌再加美金抽升, 一句講晒, 729, 7498358448923441301, 618, 547, 566, 今日fed突然黎一招無限qe, 要係現今市場搵到最接近的情況, 就係日本的qe政策, 一直都係到買日本市場的etf同埋公司股票, 令到日本政府係唔少公司的大股東, 仲買到市場無晒etf, 正如round1個陣講, 而家就算點qe都救唔到個疫情, 而整個經濟唔止係金融部分流通性緊張, 而係直頭根本性所有行業倒退, 市場已經睇淡到話美國失業率會去到30, 當然如果係咁的話香港就一定死得仲快, 再講多次, 而家最重要的就係保住份工, 身邊有fd所開的公司都已經要炒一半人, 而且而家都只係個開始, 727, 004, 3084698409402347691, 近排中國不斷就話武漢肺炎的影響已經完結, 已經開始復工, 但唔少投行同經濟分析師都覺得只係宣傳為主, 當然blog主都唔太相信中國已經可以全面復工, 但點先可以知道實際情況, 以下幾個係bolg主建議大家可以留意的數據, 選擇佢地係因為可以間接反映最基層的工業情況, 而且好難做假, 第一個係煤炭用量, 呢個就可以睇中國神華, 1088, 每個月都公佈的運營數據, 可以係披露易搵到, 658, 788, 534, 0319, 2020031901309_c, 神華作為中國最大的煤炭生產公司, 佢出產幾多煤可以反映中國用煤情況, 而因為中國發電主要都仲係用煤, 所以簡接睇到中國的用電量, 用電量係同工業運作好有相關, 所以出廠幾多煤就可以睇到工業情況, 咁你可能會話咁神煤可以做假數姐, 假設性情況, 並唔係真, 又點可以睇到所有情況, 因此就推薦第二個數據, 秦皇島海運價格, 秦皇島位於河北省, 而佢對經濟好重要的原因就係佢係海運煤炭到南方的出發點, 想知更多的就可以睇以下段片的開頭, 海運煤價就好好咁反映到中國主要城市的用電需求多與少, 需求大就自然運費高, 相反都一樣, 498, 1063, 上面幅圖就係過去一年海運煤的走勢, 而最後一個數據就係lme的銅以及鋁價, 因為呢兩樣金屬好多都用係工業, 而中國的工業都用唔少, 兩者的價格就反映到中國對於原材料的需要有幾大, 580, 947, 390, 597, 973, 392, 上面幅圖就係過去一年兩隻金屬價格的走勢, 幾時復甦, 至少可以答你唔係而家, 中國幾時復工, 218, 3325255483888290941, edition, coronavirus, covid, index, disappeared, slashes, after, flying, 582, people, day, 沙士個陣相信都無咩少, 國泰可以頂到幾耐真係唔知, 等緊3月數據出爐再計下佢收入有幾多, 國泰有幾慘, 500, 5542149580966830598, 正如上一篇所講, 想睇下國泰三月情況會係點, 今日就出左數據, 當然就好嚇人, 更嚴重的係國泰自己講左係四月十二號呢個禮拜中有一日載客量只係302人, 對blog主黎講係一個諗唔到的數字, 姐係一架巴士一日載客量都多乘客過國泰整個機隊, 下面幅圖就係三月同埋ytd的數據, 894, 767, s400, 341, 0416, 2020041600191_c, 二零二零年三月份客, 貨運量數據, 第一樣野就睇到到底好幾恐怖, 客運yoy就跌九成, 真係靠外國回港的學生頂住, 中國同埋東南等同死晒, 第二樣野就國泰已經將可載客量cut左七成, 但係運載率都仲只係唔夠五成, 仲有一半架機係空, 慘不忍睹, 最重要的一樣野係內文到, 在四月和五月, 我們只會營運少數基本的客運航班, 相當於正常運力的, 簡單黎講姐係無客運, 得番貨運, 但係貨運都係要跌三成半, 而且唔少貨運都係用客機載貨, 而家無客運就會連累埋貨運, blog主而家擔心的係國泰到底有無錢營運落去, 因為已經係無晒客運收入, 而且旅客不斷取消機票, 對佢的現金流好有影響, 有無錢還債都成問題, 以下黎個簡單的計算, 19年國泰加港龍客運收入720億, 佔所有收入的七成, 貨運就210億, 假設個收入係每一個月都係咁的表現, 咁一個月客運收入60億, 貨運就18億, 2020年三個月的客運, 一月大約持平, 二月跌六成, 三月跌九成, 而四五月就跌九成七, 假設埋六月好好彩只係跌七成, 咁大約上半年客運收入就只係得番112億, 再假設埋因為大需求國泰可以加到五成票價, 都只係168億, 貨運方面, 一月跌5, 二月跌7, 三月跌三成, 假設剩番三個月都係跌三成, 再計大五成收入, 咁個收入就會係124億, 國泰加港龍上半年客貨運收入就只係292億, 集團19年係營業帶黎的現金流有185億, 係總收入的17, 用呢個比例去計的話咁上半年的現金流就有5億, 集團19年流動資金有149億, 再加上信貸最高可以去到204億, 但係20年到期的債就有415億, 姐係話本身已經唔夠現金流還2020年的債, 而家再加埋上半年得番幾億的現金流, 好肯定國泰會有事情發生, 最簡單未延長債務, 又或者再問銀行借, 但咁的時勢仲有幾多銀行肯借, 因此blog主認為會出現以下其中一個事情, 要供股, 但係大股東太古自身都難保, 係石油業務都蝕唔少, 賣左手上的國航, 國泰而家手上有國航18, 值41億, 當然以上兩個option都係好大膽的預計, 但國泰唔似其他flag, carrier的航空公司有政府出手補助, 頂唔頂到個疫情係一大問題, 國泰三月數據, 435, 5810142605112814684, 苗僑偉, 我告訴你, 你今天贏的機會是零, 香港網絡大典, fandom, 310, vignette, wikia, nocookie, net, evchk, michael02, revision, latest, scale, 20070108200749, 利率跌穿0已經係難以相信, 點知尋日仲要打破埋另一個不可能, 五月的期油一路跌落去, 1蚊1蚊咁跌落去, blog主cap圖都cap唔切, 當cap到0, 01個陣仲以為好勁, 點知一下就穿0, 最後去到, 37收市, 當然你可以話無咩參考價值, 但可以肯定的係油價已經唔再正常, 無位存放呢個情況唔會突然消失, 要消耗快過產出好多先得, 如果唔係, 呢個情況就只會不斷係結算前出現, 而當你知道個價係結算前好大機會跌到負數, 作為交易員就一定係月頭不斷開油的淡倉, 令油價再加劇下跌, 一句講晒就唔好去買咩3175, 死的速度同牛熊差唔多, 一講到油又會拎埋國泰出黎, 今次佢真係死得好慘, 已經減緊燃油對沖, 但竟然都會奶野, 仲要係奶晒野, edit, gmt, 寫呢篇個陣油價仲係11蚊, 點知即日就試過落到7蚊樓下, 相信黎緊都不斷出現咁的情況, 22t02, 823, 136014473512763864, 103, 90後打工一族, 一直渴望有生之年唔再靠打工搵食, 努力學習投資, 寫文只望能令一眾後生仔對投資了解更多, 唔洗再一味死打工, 記錄自己的投資, 分享投資入門, 90後講投資賺股息, 2024, 15t12,

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ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 年季度簡報 span span style mso fareast language zh hk a href https www1 hkexnews hk listedco listconews sehk 2019 0507 ltn20190507245_c pdf span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 連結 span a span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 已經有講到 仲講到明會重大影響到未來的收入 span span style mso fareast language zh hk o p o p span span div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin br span span div div class separator style clear both text align center a href https blogger googleusercontent com img b r29vz2xl avvxseiewtnpxnfjh2u0gkzx0wsrkfsglh7aejs7n2ddxrzhzgnkpup7zlfjvj1v4gzz ojvutafmudptunk4nd_5hgxzidfbp_jofxssbn8vrbghtfetvepk2x50qie t34wcnloci4zclqihy s1600 1 jpg imageanchor 1 style margin left 1em margin right 1em img border 0 data original height 530 data original width 670 height 506 src https blogger googleusercontent com img b r29vz2xl avvxseiewtnpxnfjh2u0gkzx0wsrkfsglh7aejs7n2ddxrzhzgnkpup7zlfjvj1v4gzz ojvutafmudptunk4nd_5hgxzidfbp_jofxssbn8vrbghtfetvepk2x50qie t34wcnloci4zclqihy s640 1 jpg width 640 a div div class msonormal br div div class msonormal style text align center br div div class msonormal style text align center span style font size large 來源 2019年季度簡報 1月至3月 span a href https www1 hkexnews hk listedco listconews sehk 2019 0507 ltn20190507245_c pdf style font size x large target _blank 連結 a div div class msonormal br div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 而更重要的資料 就當然又唔係一般的文件或者新聞到搵到 而係中電同分析員的電話會議的講稿 呢篇英文稿 span span style mso fareast language zh hk a href https www clpgroup com en investors information site anaylst 20brief 20document transcript_20190620 pdf span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 連結 span a span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 就好值得大家去睇下到底而家澳洲的情況係點 span span style mso fareast language zh hk blog span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 主就唔一一 span span style mso fareast language zh hk copy span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 晒出黎 相反 關於本地業務同埋整體公司業績 span span style mso fareast language zh hk blog span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 主就想節錄出黎比大家睇下 等大家唔會係中電出中期業績個陣嚇親 span span style mso fareast language zh hk o p o p span span div div class msonormal br div div class msonormal span style font size large dennis ip daiwa securities finally i understand that there is not much cash impact and the only impact probably will be the loss of the retail earnings happening in the future i just want to make sure that our dividend policy would not be massively impacted by this retail business in energyaustralia thank you o p o p span div div class msonormal span style font size large br span div div class msonormal span style font size large span style mso fareast language zh hk richard lancaster span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 中電 span span style mso fareast language zh hk ceo your third question was i recall on the dividend and the implications for the dividend clearly we have looked at 2019 and if you look at the business as a whole we will be seeing a reduction in earnings from our hong kong business because of the lower permitted return we also will see a reduction in india because of the sell down to cdpq we had taken all of that into consideration and yet we still had the confidence to increase our dividend at the end of first quarter at 3 now i cannot make any statements on behalf of the board but when you look at the materiality of this in the totality of our business whilst the impairment is quite a large number it is non cash i will leave it to you to judge but in terms of the cash impact on our business it is relatively small in the overall scheme of our business o p o p span span div div class msonormal span style font size large span style mso fareast language zh hk br span span div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 講到香港同印度的盈利都有下跌 但股息就會有 span span style mso fareast language zh hk 3 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 的增長 span span style mso fareast language zh hk 17 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 到 span span style mso fareast language zh hk 18 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 年整 span span lang zh tw style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 體 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 係 span 3 span style mso fareast language zh hk 7 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 增長 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 仲話今次的減值唔會對整體業務唔會有大影響 span span style mso fareast language zh hk o p o p span span div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin br span span div div class msonormal span style font size large wilson ling hsbc just one question actually for the past couple of years clp has been engaged in a value restoration strategy in australia which clp has achieved by fy18 but due to this policy change in australia it could mean that we are taking a step back from that meaning possibly a lower roic generated i just want to ask about the strategy in australia going forward what are the things that clp is going to do maybe to keep on growing in the segment o p o p span div div class msonormal span style font size large br span div div class msonormal span style mso fareast language zh hk span style font size large richard lancaster we do still see the value that we have in having a large customer base in australia the ability to operate in two main markets in new south wales and victoria where we have not only a strong retail business but also a wholesale generating portfolio that is right sized for those retail businesses so structurally with a retail and wholesale business that provide that natural hedge we do see this being a robust business model our approach for more than three years now since 2015 is to get our business in the best possible shape improve customer service lower our costs get our business operating as efficiently as we can and make sure we are doing everything we can to retain customers and develop our margin through improvements in efficiency and improvements in customer service that remains our objective in australia going forward a period of high prices is not going to be welcomed by customers or by regulators we can see that and we understand that high prices had been caused by a shortage of supply in a market which sees extreme weather putting pressure on electricity demand high penetration of renewables coming into the system means there does need to be some investments made to stabilise prices to reduce some of the volatility so whilst our strategy of value restoration is still key the principles of that are essentially the principles of doing good business in a retail business but we do also see a need for some investment over the coming years that will help the business in the longer term o p o p span span div div class msonormal span style mso fareast language zh hk span style font size large br span span div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 簡單 span span style mso fareast language zh hk d span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 講 姐係唔好期 span span lang zh tw style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 望 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 澳洲係短期內會有咩重大的盈利增長 而早前推展的 span value restoration strategy span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 就要再等下先至會見到 更重要的係最尾個句 span span lang zh hk style mso fareast language zh hk span span style mso fareast language zh hk span span style mso fareast language zh hk but we do also see a need for some investment over the coming years that will help the business in the longer term span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 未 span span lang zh tw style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 來 span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 幾年仲要投資落澳洲先至可以令業務回復 span span style mso fareast language zh hk o p o p span span div div class msonormal br div div class msonormal span style font size large span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 而今日明報就有篇新聞以 span span lang zh hk style mso fareast language zh hk span span style mso fareast language zh hk span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri mso ascii theme font minor latin mso fareast font family pmingliu mso fareast language zh hk mso fareast theme font minor fareast mso hansi font family calibri mso hansi theme font minor latin 當地投資 多災多難 span span lang zh hk style mso fareast language zh hk span span lang zh hk style font family pmingliu serif mso ascii font family calibri m...