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Text of the page (random words):
e editor at any time to be considered for publication your submission must be complete not a pitch those get you blocked as a spammer include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day all submissions become the property of the market ticker considering sending spam read this first 2026 06 26 07 00 by karl denninger in federal government 11 references what s this most of the supremes can read comments enabled first up is this the question in this case is when an alien who seeks to enter the united states from mexico arrives in the united states within the meaning of that phrase in two key ina provisions 8 u s c 1158 a 1 and 1225 a 1 when the alien is standing in mexico at the border or only when the alien crosses the border and enters the country well the ina is clear arrives means what it says so held an alien standing in mexico does not arriv e in the united states by attempting and failing to set foot in this country an alien arrives in the united states only when he crosses the border the ina thus neither entitles an alien standing in mexico to apply for asylum nor requires an immigration officer to inspect him pp 7 18 in other words arrives means arrives go figure arrive means to reach a destination and in means within the limits bounds or area of none of which you are if you re not physically inside the united states sotomayer kagan and jackson apparently believe words do not mean what they actually do mean nor what s clearly in the ina go figure i thought reading was fundamental and then of course we have a second instance in which the supremes demonstrated well most of them anyway for a second time they could read this time in the first title of the statute and controversy in question tps the question presented is whether respondents who challenge the termination of temporary protected status tps for aliens from syria and haiti are entitled to orders postponing the terminations during litigation congress created tps in 1990 to provide short term humanitarian relief for aliens who cannot safely return to their home countries although designed to afford temporary relief tps designations in practice have often lasted for decades so right up front the question posed points out the problem while designed for temporary relief the purpose has been perverted to effectively become an open ended program without regard to the actual law itself and once again we find the majority can read 1 the tps statute bars judicial review of non constitutional claims pp 12 18 a section 1254a b 5 a provides that t here is no judicial review of any determination of the secretary of homeland security with respect to the designation or termination or extension of a designation of a foreign state the term determination may mean either an individual decision or the process leading to a decision under either understanding 1254a b 5 a bars all of respondents non constitutional claims the law itself bars any judicial review and thus due process claims except on constitutional grounds and the secretary of homeland security has under said statute both the right to institute such a protection and to remove it the conferred processes are equal and one is not more burdened than the other and of course once again we have three justices who either cannot parse plain english or simply don t care doesn t matter in both instances they lost and thus 1 those who claimed protected status despite not actually being examined by immigration agents when entering the us and 2 those who claimed that tps could not be revoked as easily as it was implemented have as of today lost said patently unlawful extensions of their ability to be and remain in the united states words in statutes mean what they say view this entry with comments opens new window 2026 06 23 14 28 by karl denninger in potd 10 references mountains the mountains 55 8 10 view this entry with comments opens new window 2026 06 23 14 26 by karl denninger in consumer 39 references what a prime jamjob it is comments enabled one day in front of prime day i stuck a handful of things in my amazon cart but did not check out then during prime days today i went back to it the prices on all of them had gone up one by roughly a third prime day deals eh if i wanted that sort of deal i d have bought a big jar of personal lubricant first no thanks view this entry with comments opens new window 2026 06 23 07 00 by karl denninger in market musings 430 references no george it is not going back to what it was comments enabled you need to look at this for however long it takes until you realize what it means that s the 10 year treasury rate unfortunately it only goes back to 1962 on fred but if you were to keep looking backward you would see that it has a roughly 80 year period through history this is a kondratieff cycle which is roughly correlated with human lifespan that is when the last person who went through the previous one is dead then the same cycle tends to repeat in this case we re talking borrowing rates the general shape of them has been for 40 years from the upper left to the lower right i pointed this out in leverage and that it was not possible for it continue forever because rates below zero are in fact simply confiscating wealth from the lender in all cases and thus will never be permitted on any sort of durable basis the trend reached its terminus in 2020 we now have roughly forty years of increasing rates on a long term basis in front of us about five of those years have already occurred and there are 35 more to go like it or not in generally decreasing rate environments note that it wasn t a straight line in either direction in the past you can roll over borrowing at decreasing interest cost this in turn encourages ever higher leverage yes small busts occur when you bottom tick one of the declining points and then rates go higher for a little while gee you don t see that just before 2000 and 2008 do you but the longer term trend is down the opposite occurs when the trend is the other way you can get lucky and catch a counter trend move but that s exactly what happened and what you did if you believe that s a longer term thing or durable you get it in the shorts because it is not corporate and personal behavior have been molded by this for the last 40 years effectively no corporate borrowing has ever been paid off during the last 40 years because it has always been cheaper to roll it over than it was the last time it therefore appears stupid to retain earnings and pay it down but when the turn comes and it clearly has now every turn comes with higher interest expense instead of lower and now if you don t retain earnings and pay it off you risk bankruptcy incidentally the same applies to national finance it appears to be free to continue to accumulate national debt in a declining rate environment but when that long cycle turns and it now has you must not only reduce deficit spending it must be less than economic expansion or the ever increasing cost of borrowing will inevitably go vertical on inflation and destroy the nation and its citizens the same is true for the fed funds rate the previous 40 ish year cycle is over folks and the upward swing is now occurring it has roughly three to four decades to run before it turns the other way the market is ignoring this that s idiotic and it is precisely that which leads to very serious market and economic dislocations the detonation hasn t happened yet because corporations tend to take out roughly 10 year paper thus the serious rollover problems are just beginning to happen now and the same is true for much of the federal debt as treasury aggressively and stupidly as i pointed out when it began during the gfc rolled down maturities when short rates were near zero to suppress the visible interest rate expense and deficits at the time thus the vertical acceleration in federal interest expense is already well under way that same acceleration is going to hit every single corporation that has borrowed on a rollover basis during the last forty years all of them their acceleration point will come at different times as most did not roll aggressively down on maturity as did the federal government but it will come with certainty and for most corporations that is roughly ten years we re five into the turn more or less so yes its starting now and will continue no neither ai or anything else will or can change this and yes they tried in 2020 as we all know by slamming rates back to zero the result was hideous inflation which there is no way to stop except to drain liquidity and or collapse demand from the economy as a whole e g ejecting people from the nation who are least capable and can be ejected as they are not citizens as of this point in the fiscal year we re 8 12 or 2 3ds of the way through and have a 1 246 trillion deficit annualized that is 1 869 trillion on book in reality its worse because the total public debt as of may 31st is 39 207 759 598 302 62 which less that of october 1st 37 864 059 502 725 70 is 1 344 trillion annualized that is 2 02 trillion or against 32 trillion current gdp roughly 6 31 the short end of the rate curve must be higher by some amount say 50 or 100 basis points than the federal deficit as a percentage of gdp less productivity this in the current deficit environment means to stop the inflationary runaway the short end must be around 5 5 as of the present time and federal spending must be cut as otherwise interest expense will continue to consume more and more of the budget the only way to stop the exponential acceleration of interest expense in real dollars accounting for productivity improvements is for the deficit to be less than said increase in productivity that is the only path that will shrink interest payments in real terms over time to d o this given the current long term productivity trend the deficit must be less than approximately 2 a reduction of somewhat more than 2 3ds what it is today there is no way to stop the acceleration of inflation other than for borrowing to have a positive cost vs the dollars emitted via deficit spending and there is no way to control the otherwise runaway federal interest expenses other than to dramatically cut deficit spending itself which both stops accumulating more interest expense and allows rates to increase at a slower pace as i ve pointed out repeatedly for the last 20 years the only place we can resolve this in the federal budget simply on where the money is spent is by going after the medical system and its cost generally not insurance or similar tripe but cost there is simply no other place in the budget where you can generate the required difference but even with those steps which are necessary to prevent a full on catastrophe rates will generally be higher for the next three decades yes there will be periods of time when rates go up and down but the general trend is now higher rather than lower and you are crazy if you do not believe that will be the case for 30 more years as these longer term cycles have always been present thus the only rational expectation is that all of the premium generated by that compounding of debt into lower rates that is in all asset classes including real estate and stocks from that prior 40 year trend is going to come back out that s at least 50 in real estate on an average basis and much more in some areas and almost certainly 75 or more in leveraged that is stocks asset markets since equities are inherently leveraged to operating income even without margin borrowing and similar shenanigans and no those adjustments once they occur will not be recovered to prior prices on any reasonably short term basis either when does it become impossible for the market to ignore and thus those outcomes occur when the duration is exceeded for what was taken before and it must be either paid off which there is no money to do or rolled over at materially higher interest rates if you re thinking that any of the formulas that used debt as a successful tool for other than financing some element of consumption or production to be paid in full e g a house to live in with no expectation of profit from its eventual sale or an industrial building and equipment to make a product with sufficient cash flow to pay it off on the original terms you are going to be wrong for the next three decades unless by pure happenstance you hit the window of one of the short term cycles that allows you to exit by paying off the principal on one further rollover without being ruined none of the schemes from the 1980s forward are going to work otherwise until another 30 years pass you cannot evade the laws of mathematics view this entry with comments opens new window 2026 06 22 09 04 by karl denninger in consumer 28 references so having hit the solstice comments enabled technically it was yesterday sunday at 4 24 am eastern but ok whatever close enough here s your summer home maintenance checklist stuff all of which is a good idea to do at this time of year because its easier and more reasonable comfort and such wise both of these can be springtime maintenance items and arguably that s the best time once you re not worried about cold weather and or snow but if not here s a reminder water heater tank flush turn off the power or gas if its a gas heater there s a hose connection and valve on the bottom connect a hose run it somewhere safe e g outdoors open it up and let it run for a couple of minutes why because water heaters if there is any sort of mineral content in the water at all build up crystals in them in hard water areas over the years you won t believe how much white crystal material will build up in there they damage efficiency especially in a gas fired unit due to where the highest heat transfer is on those and if you let it build up too much will reach the lower element in an electric one and cause the element to burn out once a year flush it and you avoid most but not all of this in really bad hard water areas you may need to do this twice a year if so do it spring and fall winter is a pain for obvious reasons in terms of running the hose outside btw if you have a really badly neglected one i have a procedure to get all that crap out of it sound off in the comments if you want to know what it is water heater anode since the power is already off with the hose still running outside shut off the inlet to the heater and open a hot water faucet let a decent amount of the water drain out of the heater a few gallons so there is air space at the top look on the top and there should be a large brass hex bolt note that pipe square drive plugs are almost always the wrong one and there may be one or more of those the correct one is almost always a 1 1 16 socket you will need an impact to get it out the first time and you want one anyway because if you put the sort of force on it you ll need the tank may move and damage your plumbing connec...