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description=8 posts published by Anna Renee, asabagna, and Black Women in Europe during February 2011;

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ciple stays true as well although interestingly over time the regimes seem to learn to spread the wealth a bit thus what emerged throughout the region were regimes and individuals who were classic kleptocrats more than anything if we want to define this wave of unrest particularly in north africa it is a rising against regimes and particularly individuals who have been in place for extraordinarily long periods of time and we can add to this that they are people who were planning to maintain family power and money by installing sons as their political heirs the same process with variations is under way in the arabian peninsula this is a rising against the revolutionaries of previous generations the revolutions have been coming for a long time the rising in tunisia particularly when it proved successful caused it to spread as in 1848 1968 and 1989 similar social and cultural conditions generate similar events and are triggered by the example of one country and then spread more broadly that has happened in 2011 and is continuing a uniquely sensitive region it is however happening in a region that is uniquely sensitive at the moment the u s jihadist war means that as with previous revolutionary waves there are broader potential geopolitical implications 1989 meant the end of the soviet empire for example in this case the question of greatest importance is not why these revolutions are taking place but who will take advantage of them we do not see these revolutions as a vast conspiracy by radical islamists to take control of the region a conspiracy that vast is easily detected and the security forces of the individual countries would have destroyed the conspiracies quickly no one organized the previous waves although there have been conspiracy theories about them as well they arose from certain conditions following the example of one incident but particular groups certainly tried with greater and lesser success to take advantage of them in this case whatever the cause of the risings there is no question that radical islamists will attempt to take advantage and control of them why wouldn t they it is a rational and logical course for them whether they will be able to do so is a more complex and important question but that they would want to and are trying to do so is obvious they are a broad transnational and disparate group brought up in conspiratorial methods this is their opportunity to create a broad international coalition thus as with traditional communists and the new left in the 1960s they did not create the rising but they would be fools not to try to take advantage of it i would add that there is little question but that the united states and other western countries are trying to influence the direction of the uprisings for both sides this is a difficult game to play but it is particularly difficult for the united states as outsiders to play this game compared to native islamists who know their country but while there is no question that islamists would like to take control of the revolution that does not mean that they will nor does it mean that these revolutions will be successful recall that 1848 and 1968 were failures and those who tried to take advantage of them had no vehicle to ride also recall that taking control of a revolution is no easy thing but as we saw in russia in 1917 it is not necessarily the more popular group that wins but the best organized and you frequently don t find out who is best organized until afterwards democratic revolutions have two phases the first is the establishment of democracy the second is the election of governments the example of hitler is useful as a caution on what kind of governments a young democracy can produce since he came to power through democratic and constitutional means and then abolished democracy to cheering crowds so there are three crosscurrents here the first is the reaction against corrupt regimes the second is the election itself and the third the united states needs to remember as it applauds the rise of democracy that the elected government may not be what one expected in any event the real issue is whether these revolutions will succeed in replacing existing regimes let s consider the process of revolution for the moment beginning by distinguishing a demonstration from an uprising a demonstration is merely the massing of people making speeches this can unsettle the regime and set the stage for more serious events but by itself it is not significant unless the demonstrations are large enough to paralyze a city they are symbolic events there have been many demonstrations in the muslim world that have led nowhere consider iran it is interesting here to note that the young frequently dominate revolutions like 1848 1969 and 1989 at first this is normal adults with families and maturity rarely go out on the streets to face guns and tanks it takes young people to have the courage or lack of judgment to risk their lives in what might be a hopeless cause however to succeed it is vital that at some point other classes of society join them in iran one of the key moments of the 1979 revolution was when the shopkeepers joined young people in the street a revolution only of the young as we saw in 1968 for example rarely succeeds a revolution requires a broader base than that and it must go beyond demonstrations the moment it goes beyond the demonstration is when it confronts troops and police if the demonstrators disperse there is no revolution if they confront the troops and police and if they carry on even after they are fired on then you are in a revolutionary phase thus pictures of peaceful demonstrators are not nearly as significant as the media will have you believe but pictures of demonstrators continuing to hold their ground after being fired on is very significant a revolution s key event this leads to the key event in the revolution the revolutionaries cannot defeat armed men but if those armed men in whole or part come over to the revolutionary side victory is possible and this is the key event in bahrain the troops fired on demonstrators and killed some the demonstrators dispersed and then were allowed to demonstrate with memories of the gunfire fresh this was a revolution contained in egypt the military and police opposed each other and the military sided with the demonstrators for complex reasons obviously personnel change if not regime change was inevitable in libya the military has split wide open when that happens you have reached a branch in the road if the split in the military is roughly equal and deep this could lead to civil war indeed one way for a revolution to succeed is to proceed to civil war turning the demonstrators into an army so to speak that s what mao did in china far more common is for the military to split if the split creates an overwhelming anti regime force this leads to the revolution s success always the point to look for is thus the police joining with the demonstrators this happened widely in 1989 but hardly at all in 1968 it happened occasionally in 1848 but the balance was always on the side of the state hence that revolution failed it is this act the military and police coming over to the side of the demonstrators that makes or breaks a revolution therefore to return to the earlier theme the most important question on the role of radical islamists is not their presence in the crowd but their penetration of the military and police if there were a conspiracy it would focus on joining the military waiting for demonstrations and then striking those who argue that these risings have nothing to do with radical islam may be correct in the sense that the demonstrators in the streets may well be students enamored with democracy but they miss the point that the students by themselves can t win they can only win if the regime wants them to as in egypt or if other classes and at least some of the police or military people armed with guns who know how to use them join them therefore looking at the students on tv tells you little watching the soldiers tells you much more the problem with revolutions is that the people who start them rarely finish them the idealist democrats around alexander kerensky in russia were not the ones who finished the revolution the thuggish bolsheviks did in these muslim countries the focus on the young demonstrators misses the point just as it did in tiananmen square it wasn t the demonstrators that mattered but the soldiers if they carried out orders there would be no revolution i don t know the degree of islamist penetration of the military in libya to pick one example of the unrest i suspect that tribalism is far more important than theology in egypt i suspect the regime has saved itself by buying time bahrain was more about iranian influence on the shiite population than sunni jihadists at work but just as the iranians are trying to latch on to the process so will the sunni jihadists the danger of chaos i suspect some regimes will fall mostly reducing the country in question to chaos the problem as we are seeing in tunisia is that frequently there is no one on the revolutionaries side equipped to take power the bolsheviks had an organized party in these revolutions the parties are trying to organize themselves during the revolution which is another way to say that the revolutionaries are in no position to govern the danger is not radical islam but chaos followed either by civil war the military taking control simply to stabilize the situation or the emergence of a radical islamic party to take control simply because they are the only ones in the crowd with a plan and an organization that s how minorities take control of revolutions all of this is speculation what we do know is that this is not the first wave of revolution in the world and most waves fail with their effects seen decades later in new regimes and political cultures only in the case of eastern europe do we see broad revolutionary success but that was against an empire in collapse so few lessons can be drawn from that for the muslim world in the meantime as you watch the region remember not to watch the demonstrators watch the men with the guns if they stand their ground for the state the demonstrators have failed if some come over there is some chance of victory and if victory comes and democracy is declared do not assume that what follows will in any way please the west democracy and pro western political culture do not mean the same thing the situation remains fluid and there are no broad certainties it is a country by country matter now with most regimes managing to stay in power to this point there are three possibilities one is that this is like 1848 a broad rising that will fail for lack of organization and coherence but that will resonate for decades the second is 1968 a revolution that overthrew no regime even temporarily and left some cultural remnants of minimal historical importance the third is 1989 a revolution that overthrew the political order in an entire region and created a new order in its place if i were to guess at this point i would guess that we are facing 1848 the muslim world will not experience massive regime change as in 1989 but neither will the effects be as ephemeral as 1968 like 1848 this revolution will fail to transform the muslim world or even just the arab world but it will plant seeds that will germinate in the coming decades i think those seeds will be democratic but not necessarily liberal in other words the democracies that eventually arise will produce regimes that will take their bearings from their own culture which means islam the west celebrates democracy it should be careful what it hopes for it might get it congrats museveni on tsunami like win by nkwazi mhango 26 saturday feb 2011 posted by asabagna in africa african elections african politics afrospear afrosphere corruption news nkwazi mhango uganda yoweri museveni 3 comments dear mr president of uganda yoweri kaguta tibuhaburwa museveni though i am not your voter i come from the same background like that of your humble voters i come from the country where voters and all hoi polloi are but sheepish beasts of burden for hoity toitty like in your country and they like this for playing this role is a great honour for them so too we share nexus in that when you were fighting for uganda you had your base and support in my country we supported you so as to punish our arch enemy idi amin who toppled our best friend milton obote i understand by being of the same origin politically there are a couple things we know about each other i am tanzanian by blood and water like uganda our country has been ruled by one party since independence just like your nrm has been doing though not since independence our good ruling party is infallible and holy so as not to be questioned or opposed so you can see that those accusing you of overstaying are making a grave mistake you are not alone in this clean game of enjoying power i heard your opponents complaining about vote rigging i was shocked to death didn t they know that without applying this golden rule no ruler would be in power in africa who is clean in east african community that did not do the same to cling unto power let he be the first to cast a stone for reminder as a precedent we did just this two months ago in tanzania you know what happened our money was stolen in the name of charade known as elections the good thing is elections were true and fair simply because the ruling junta won thanks to this science of duplicating and multiplying votes therefore it must be underscored rigging is not a crime in africa it is but a claim just like nepotism corruption cronyism nihilism rigging will be glorified by seating duck like rulers whose actions are only seen in rigging and robbing our treasury you are not among or one of them mr president you should not listen to opponents frog like noises they goofed and thought that voters can decide who should rule them the role of voters is to humbly vote but not to question the results even if they are cooked or their voters stolen first of all president cannot steal pieces of papers such president must be stupid and a dog do you remember this quote of yours you made just short time before elctions you said thus i like my cows better than this state house but no one is right to take over i cannot leave the country to these timewasters change from what from one weakness to another weakness this is not a beauty contest 2016 shall be decided according to the strength of africa so those daydreaming that this is your last term in office should think twice if an individual thanks to abusively using the power he stole from citizenry can tamper with the constitution to remain in power what is there to boot him out of the very power pieces of papers otherwise known as votes dare you not to daydream that power hungry wolves will let power go without going to tahrir square t...
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