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being ground zero for the housing bubble california is essentially ungovernable now tax raises require a 2 3 vote and state finances are tied up in a number of proposition measures that were passed by referendum posted by purple at 8 06 pm no comments friday january 23 2009 plans to use military during civil unrest persistent stories about deploying the u s military on american soil if i didn t know better i would say it almost feels like the rollout of a product or floating an idea to get the public s reaction the stories have been published or based in the border regions of the south west and often center around mexico s spiraling drug war and its potential for spillover yet their origin an army college report titled known unknowns places a military deployment in the context of civil unrest that sounds more like protests or rioting not crime incidentally crime in u s is way down now on a per capita basis from the early 1990 s ap feds plan surge if mexican drug war spills over if mexican drug violence spills across the u s border homeland security officials say they have a contingency plan to assist border areas that includes bringing in the military it s a common sense extension of our continued work with our state local and tribal partners in securing the southwest border dhs spokeswoman amy kudwa said friday link el paso times unrest caused by bad economy may require military action report says a u s army war college report warns an economic crisis in the united states could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order retired army lt col nathan freir wrote the report known unknowns unconventional strategic shocks in defense strategy development which the army think tank in carlisle pa recently released link arizona business times ariz police say they are prepared as war college warns military must prep for unrest imf warns of economic riots nick dranias director of constitutional government at the libertarian goldwater institute said a declaration of marital law would be an extraordinary event and give military control over civilian authorities and institutions dranias said the posse comitatus act restricts the u s military s role in domestic law enforcement but he points to a 1994 u s defense department directive dodd 3025 he says allows military commanders to take emergency actions in domestic situations to save lives prevent suffering or mitigate great property damage link posted by purple at 1 23 am no comments thursday january 22 2009 yuan and dollar obama has long signaled his unhappiness with the valuation of the yuan relative to the dollar and his treasury nominee further emphasized that today timothy geithner president barack obama s nominee for treasury secretary said the new u s administration believes china is manipulating its currency as i wrote in an earlier post obama s political power base is different than other recent presidents being geographically located in the upper midwest and chicago economically this means agriculture domestic manufacturing and unions protectionism does not have a negative connotation in these circles it does seem there is a power struggle among the political class in regards to the american china relationship an editorial by the war criminal kissinger represents the view that the sino american relationship needs to be taken to a new level however if kissinger is writing editorials it indicates that he is on the outside looking in if international trade curtails substantially i think it s quite likely that china will attempt to establish a regional trading bloc with the yuan as the dominant currency it seems to be starting this process with the asean countries who surround a strategic choke point to the indian ocean kissinger mentions this in his editorial a frustrated china may take another look at an exclusive regional asian structure for which the nucleus already exists in the asean plus three concept the unwinding of the current over leveraged unbalanced model means that many countries will be looking twice at globalization posted by purple at 6 55 am no comments wednesday january 21 2009 no one could have known about the housing bubble and the over leveraged u s consumer the coming financial tsunami by george mullen june 9 2005 world economies including that of the united states have been built not only on a house of cards but on a foundation of beach sand as well the tide which had been going out for some time convinced us of the soundness of our financial structure and the brilliance of our government stewardship and individual decisions however the tide is now coming in again via the federal reserve and we are failing to grasp the magnitude of the danger before us it is a tsunami according to the national association of realtors 36 percent of all new homes purchased in 2004 were secondary homes either for investment 23 percent or vacation 13 percent this is evidence of rampant speculation i knew many middle class people in california that were buying houses as investments using cheap credit and the equity on their primary residence over the three years of this supposed economic recovery wages have increased a meager 4 percent a startling 10 percentage points behind the 14 percent average wage gain of the five preceding cyclical recoveries by february 2005 americans were carrying a record 803 billion in revolving credit card debt up 40 billion in the past year alone note debt levels typically do not increase in economic recovery periods long term wage stagnation is one of the key factors to this unwinding the only way to grow an economy with stagnant wages is to make credit cheap and accessible but eventually if the money is not paid back there will be a period of liquidation to cleanse the system this article is still one of the best primers for explaining the housing collapse and its domino effect on an over leveraged consumer and economy not a surprise that it was written from san diego which was probably the first housing market to peak and begin crashing posted by purple at 6 53 pm no comments tuesday january 20 2009 clean up crew for the inauguration after the party for those serving the general public however this author found that poverty wage day labor is being used to clean up the massive outdoor events the job description recruiting for this work seen through the window of a labor ready temporary staffing office in richmond virginia is worth quoting in full time to be in branch will know friday probably 5 am how long job lasts with travel time 15 hours plus please be aware travel time is not paid pay 7 55 an hour job duties trash pickup horse manure pickup no joke dress attire must dress warm gloves hats scarves extra liners jackets you will not be able to go if you don t dress warm long hours tedious work outside in freezing weather high security no bags allowed please be aware i have actually worked for the above organization but thankfully not for long in my experience they were bottom of the barrel for temp agencies in terms of wages conditions and how the workers were treated posted by purple at 3 11 pm monday january 19 2009 the new president the inauguration of obama is a milestone in the history of the united states one does feel a relaxing of racial tensions and an enthusiasm for the country and the political process that has been absent for the last number of years his presidency gives a measure of esteem and respect to people of oppressed cultures around the world a world even more divided by skin color than the united states but political popularity can turn quickly it was stunning to watch schwarzenegger s endorsed ballet propositions go down to defeat two years after his successful recall of grey davis and george w bush had a 75 approval rating for what seemed like a year only to see it fall to the lowest rating upon leaving office of any u s president leaving the pageantry of the next few weeks aside it is interesting to think about what obama s policies in the white house will be as he works with the democratic congress though as a politician he is brilliant in terms of policy obama is a fairly mainstream centrist liberal democrat chicago is the source of his political upbringing and a such he has a different power base than recent presidents chicago is a union town and the upper midwest in general is built around domestic manufacturing and agriculture unions and domestic manufacturing are pushing for protectionism against china and i expect obama will move in that direction in his first year i don t think just jawboning will be the approach of this administration rep sander levin a michigan democrat who chairs a key trade subcommittee in the house of representatives told reporters i think it will look at all options including a wto case including working through the imf including looking at present legislation levin said protectionism will fit the mood of the u s by the time late 2009 rolls around and obama will be hard for foreign leaders to demagogue but it does bring the risk of an international backlash as the global economy contracts and countries feel their backs against the wall on the issue of afghanistan obama has talked himself into a corner despite plans to send up to 30 000 additional u s troops to reinforce the 32 000 already in afghanistan of whom about half serve in the 50 000 strong nato led international security assistance force the prospect of routing the taliban is remote afghanistan is landlocked and more isolated than iraq has a longer history of successful rebellion and very little recent history as a functioning state obama has positioned it as the real fight in the so called war on terror but he risks sinking his presidency on what could be an interminable stalemate posted by purple at 6 32 pm sunday january 18 2009 space race part ii nasa has been officially independent of the u s military since its founding with a mission of science and space exploration there has always been spillover and sharing between the two organizations given the similarities in technology and personnel but i think the original distinction is important however obama might be merging many aspects of the two in the name of cost control and possibly to increase the military s influence his probable selection of a retired air force general to lead nasa also signals this merger the militarization of space has always seemed to me both like a bad idea and inevitable there also is a long term trajectory of increasing tensions between china and the united states which is worrisome posted by purple at 5 47 pm thursday january 15 2009 debt the economy is going to be moribund at best for a good long time the u s consumer is tapped out busted and deep in debt the total amount of debt can be debated but in my opinion a good amount of the world s economic growth since 2001 emanates from the burgeoning debt load of the united states looking at world trade figures for 2008 the u s current account deficit was around 700 billion dollars in second place was spain at about 166 billion the top three surplus countries of china 378 germany 266 and japan 176 just overtop the u s s deficit more than the numbers this fits with the facts on the ground it doesn t take unique insight to see that these three export dependent countries and their smaller satellites will face a dramatic unwinding as the u s consumer goes into deep freeze it also belies claims that the middle class in the bric countries japan or the e u was or is capable of soaking up the extra demand needed for world economic growth this is because of the dollar s reserve status and government policies in surplus countries that have been entrenched a very long time posted by purple at 4 28 pm no comments tuesday january 13 2009 south korean blogger arrested i don t think this has gotten enough play so to speak governments do this sort of thing as a warning to dissidents especially in times of economic vulnerability a south korean blogger pleaded not guilty saturday to charges that he spread false economic information on the internet a news report said in a case that drew heated debate over freedom of speech the blogger identified only by his surname park gained prominence among south koreans because some of his dire predictions about the global economy including the collapse of lehman brothers later proved to be correct i also find it interesting that he was largely self taught one can learn a lot with leisure time a library the internet and interest in a subject park described himself in web entries as a former securities firm employee with a master s degree earned in the united states and experience in the field of corporate acquisitions and takeovers according to local media his deeply analytical style and sometimes prescient forecasts made park a star on the web earning him the nickname economic president on the internet but prosecutors said park was an unemployed resident of seoul who studied economics on his own after graduating from a vocational high school and a junior college with a major in information and communication update it looks like this guy was acquitted which is great news posted by purple at 11 23 pm no comments monday january 12 2009 rowing across the pacific saw this last month and it caught my eye an italian adventurer who spent 10 months rowing more than 9 500 nautical miles across the pacific has been rescued a mere 65 nautical miles short of his goal australia after rough weather sapped him of his final shreds of energy alex bellini who began his voyage off peru in february contacted his wife friday to say he was too exhausted to row his 25 foot boat any further despite being nearly in sight of the eastern australian town of laurieton it reminds me tangentially of the polynesian mariners who were some of the greatest explorers in recent human history they settled the vast pacific ocean including the most remote islands in the world hawai i and easter island in long dugout canoes this was done without modern technology but rather accumulated knowledge passed through the generations a complex knowledge of the stars ocean currents animal migrations and weather patterns based on this it s not a huge leap to guess that small groups of polynesians landed in the americas and indeed it s a hypothesis from a single chicken bone recovered from the archaeological site of el arenal 1 on the arauco peninsula chile recent research of a radiocarbon date and an ancient dna sequence indicates that polynesian navigators may have reached the americas at least 100 years before europeans who arrived after 1500 ad introducing chickens to south america the need to explore invent and be creative is a fundamental element of human culture and has been going on a long time posted by purple at 8 39 pm no comments saturday january 10 2009 the bestest and the brightest princeton making budget cuts harvard s endowment down at least 22 none of the schools gave data...