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this might cause a so called black swan of renminbi devaluation if the dollar continues strengthening 1 china says it may swing to trade deficits in next six months marketwatch oliver 2 migrant workers stay home china daily limin moody posted by purple at 12 36 am no comments thursday february 25 2010 the divergence between small business and mnc s while it appears many u s based multinational corporations have been able to maintain growth though expansion into emerging markets small businesses more reliant on the domestic economy are in a state of deep recession from sandra pianalto of cleveland federal reserve according to the most recent survey of the national federation of independent business or nfib january 2010 members cited poor sales as their single most important problem the latest american express open pulse survey also expresses a similar perspective small businesses create most of the jobs in the economy and as a sum are a more significant share of the total economy the importance of small businesses to our economy especially in the early stages of a recovery cannot be overstated they have generated 64 percent of net new jobs over the past 15 years during the initial years following each of the prior two recessions those in 1990 and 2001 the strongest expansion in employment came from very small firms those with less than 20 employees collectively these statistics tell us that small business is in fact big business and its impact is even greater because it remains one of the most innovative and flexible parts of the economy there are factions within any ruling class and that between mnc s and small business will become more pronounced if this type of economic divergence continues it could create splits in the current political architecture such as a new party or a right wing populist movement within the republican party 1 when the small stuff is anything but small cleveland fed sandra pianalto posted by purple at 10 43 am no comments wednesday february 24 2010 the housing bubble and jobs in an economy where manufacturing jobs are vanishing over the long term housing construction is an area that is still labor intensive and can t be outsourced it has a strong union presence and the wages aren t bad for an experienced worker the collapse of jobs in housing and construction means a lot of pain for workers who are deeply entrenched in these professions there are few other blue collar industries left that provide a large amount of jobs technology in high wage countries is making the human unnecessary for a wide range of tasks this should be a good thing but when capital is controlled by a very small group of people interested in profit it is means an unhealthy economy for the general population i suspect the housing bubble was allowed to balloon because elite policymakers know about this jobs quandary there was nothing to replace it within the economy as currently structured in the coming decades more technology should mean less work and more leisure time equally distributed not more work for a few with a large pool of unemployed serving as a threat posted by purple at 11 34 pm no comments keynes attacked income and wealth inequality the outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are its failure to provide for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes keynes chapter 24 of the general theory inequality in the developed world is as severe now as when keynes wrote if not more so it s curious that modern keynesians spend so much time justifying deficit spending while keynes supports it in many cases in the above passage an important one as it opens the last chapter it is not central inequality of income and wealth are avoid talking about income redistribution and one can avoid unpleasantness about increasing taxes on the wealthy and bond market rentiers are not displeased with government deficit spending as long as inflation is kept in check posted by purple at 10 19 am no comments toyota and japan from cnn growing in japan is an undercurrent of conspiracy theories that the u s government now majority owner of general motors the world s largest automaker before toyota took the throne last year has an interest in bringing down the reputation of the company and its leader i don t think it has much to do with the u s government s stake in gm but something does seem a bit off the same congress of health care and jobs gridlock is acting with ruthless efficiency when it comes to toyota after years of ignoring consumer complaints i do wonder if it has to do with the new government in japan and its stated desire to become more independent of washington though economically it remains a country very much reliant on the u s market the most prominent issue in dispute is the future of the u s military on okinawa and along those lines the top u s marine in the pacific said on friday that his forces needed to be based on the southern island of okinawa for strategic reasons as tokyo struggles to resolve a dispute with washington over relocating a base as an aside i recall a cnbc interview with billionaire wilbur ross when he mentioned worrying campaign promises coming out of japan shortly before hatoyama s democratic party came to power it was clearly something on the radar of at least one very wealthy person in the ruling class 1 japan inc s reputation rides on toyoda cnn voigt 2 top u s pacific marine says base must be in okinawa reuters posted by purple at 12 05 am no comments tuesday february 23 2010 bus drivers are the problem so says liberal gavin newsom who is a long time family friend of san francisco oil heir billionaire gordon getty gavin s various businesses were initially financed by getty and his father william newsom is the administrator of the getty family trust on the heals of yesterday s vote by transit workers union twu local 250 rank and file to reject the contract concessions negotiated by their president irwin lum and mayor gavin newsom and senior management at the san francisco mta mayor newsom expressed dismay and said he would support a november ballot initiative to force the issue with the union we ll go to the people of san francisco we ll get signatures collected immediately expect that to be done in the next week or two said newsom mayor newsom painted the issue as one between reducing twu salaries or raising the fares for seniors youth and disabled riders and he was confident the public would send a stern message to the union i don t think the riding public is going to accept a wage increase for the drivers at a time when their own wages are down and the fares are going to go up particularly seniors youth and disabled once again working class people will be turned against each other without a socialist left movement there really is no force in u s politics capable of combating these types of grotesque divide and rule measures the money is there and newsom knows where to find it he can ask his good friends 1 newsom upset at muni operators rejection threatens ballot measure sf streets blog 2 sf transit union rejects millions in concessions san jose mercury 3 bringing up baby gavin sf weekly posted by purple at 11 17 am no comments monday february 22 2010 leadership class solidarity is weaker david brooks in between raving and whining does put his finger on something the new establishment with its colossal fortunes has basically over run the old establishment but in its wake has created a kind of anarchy in the ruling class this makes it difficult to get things done one wonders where this will lead the protestant establishment was inbred on the other hand those social connections placed informal limits on strife personal scandals were hushed up now members of the leadership class are engaged in a perpetual state of war each side seeks daily advantage in ways that poison the long term reputations of everybody involved 1 the power elite david brooks nyt posted by purple at 11 50 am no comments the sociopaths among us john yoo bush s former legal guardian on massacres the architect of the bush administration s memos authorizing waterboarding and other enhanced interrogation techniques told investigators that the president of the united states has the power to order the massacre of civilians according to an internal justice department investigation released late friday included in what yoo dubbed the bad things opinion according to the documents was a section outlining the president s wartime powers what about ordering a village of resistants to be massacred an investigator asked yoo is that a power that the president could legally yeah yoo replied according to a transcript provided in the report to order a village of civilians to be exterminated the questioner replied sure yoo said 1 justice no misconduct in bush interrogation memos politico posted by purple at 9 38 am 1 comment why doesn t greed is good work asks jesse s café américain why doesn t greed is good work because rather than work harder a certain portion of the population not necessarily the most productive and intelligent will immediately seek rents and extraordinary income obtained by unnatural advantages by gaming the system by cheating and coercion by the subversion of the rule of law which will sap the vitality of the greater portion of the population which does in fact work harder until they can no longer sustain themselves and then the greedy seek to expand their venality and colonies and then empires are born a most excellent post 1 modern economic myths and the failure of financial engineering jesse s cafe americain posted by purple at 1 33 am no comments friday february 19 2010 a bit on private investment the collapse in private investment has been the principal drag on gdp growth since 2006 from 2006 through the end of 2009 it fell by 28 while the other three areas of gdp private consumption net trade and government spending all improved it has fallen from 18 to 11 of total economic activity as measured by gdp looking at private investment about 70 of the drop is from private structures housing and another 20 from equipment and software in terms of gdp stagnation the recession is almost entirely due to the collapse of investment in housing and the implosion of the housing bubble this is not a consumption led recession personal consumption has risen from 69 of gdp at the beginning of 2006 to 71 as of quarter 4 2009 consumption of services managed to grow every quarter even during the steepest part of gdp decline this suggest a few things housing isn t going to come back in a big way and folks who spent a good part of their careers building houses and working in real estate are going to have a hard time transitioning to another field second strength in services means the wealthy are doing just fine but the increase in private consumption in relation to gdp means the so called imbalances haven t gone away either in the u s or it looks like overseas posted by purple at 3 47 am no comments obama the weak he appoints a budget deficit committee to tell him what to do pretending to negotiate compromise between all parties i e the usual gang and going with the folks who have the biggest financial weapons so we can expect suggestions for harsh budget cuts in programs that benefit the under 250 000 crowd and higher taxes a vat tax seems to be in the offing perhaps this is the type of gumption it takes to get ahead in america as an anonymous poster at zero hedge wrote it s the fact that obama didn t have the balls to do it himself that is sad he creates a side committee to do his dirty work now he can say i didn t raise your taxes the committee did in observing day to day life weak people are usually the most dangerous due to their penchant for over compensation iran s leadership should remember that 1 white house s omb seems to remove all doubt sub 250 000 tax spree to commence zero hedge posted by purple at 3 11 am no comments thursday february 18 2010 links 1 in china shift to privatized healthcare brings long lines and frustration la times life expectancy growth in china has slowed in relation to other emerging economies over the last 20 years 2 california teachers pension fund faces 43 billion shortfall wsws org california teachers do not get social security credit for their work so this pension is their primary source of retirement stability 3 a danger in thin air counterpunch halligan on india china border disuptes 4 norway s yara to buy terra industries for 4 1b ap imagine the hysteria if a chinese swf had bought a major agricultural company in the heartland posted by purple at 9 55 am no comments tuesday february 16 2010 the u s has veto power in the imf so talk about a happy new capitalist world order is more than a bit premature see below unless people think washington is going to give up that veto power ever there s no reason to think that will happen rather it s more likely we will see a collapse of international agreements and a world of regional blocs more copenhangen s and doha s over this fragmentation the u s military will be charged with keeping order a task that looks increasingly difficult global economic power has shifted as suggested by a nice godfather parable by hulsman mitchell the united states is slipping we ve moved from a uni polar world to a multi polar globe the united states will remain the chairman of the board continuing to hold more imf votes than any other single country as well it should as the world s largest economic and biggest contributor to the imf but it will have to share power most notably with china and this will be the real long lasting change at the imf 1 when the shoe is on the other foot changes in global governance vreelander blog posted by purple at 11 26 pm no comments the logic of the libertarian most people don t have defined benefit pension plans therefore no one should have defined benefit pension plans most people have expensive health insurance that doesn t cover much therefore everyone should have expensive health insurance that doesn t cover much most people are working longer and harder for less therefore everyone should be working longer and harder for less note excludes billionaires and their intellectual head servants posted by purple at 10 27 pm no comments airborne lasers and algae jet fuel a high powered laser aboard a modified boeing co 747 jumbo jet shot down an in flight ballistic missile for the first time highlighting a new class of ray guns best known from science fiction 1 it s still unknown whether this will have any real world value but it does show that the u s is quite capable of dominating sectors which receive government support for the u s this is military equipment and weapons systems just read this and it s probably a better example the brains trust of the pentagon says it is just months away from producing a jet fuel from algae for the same cost as its fossil fuel equivalent the claim which comes...