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Text of the page (random words):
ed economic slump one word housing economist dean baker writes about a recent research paper from the federal reserve bank of cleveland the study goes on to note the extraordinary weakness in housing in this recovery and point out that this weakness could explain much of the weakness of the recovery while the study notes that there are questions of causation a weak recovery could lead to weakness in housing there can be little doubt that if residential construction had returned to its pre recession level as had been the case by this point in all prior post war recoveries the economy would be back near full employment of course it is not hard to understand why housing has not recovered the massive over building of housing during the bubble years lead to an enormous over supply of housing which shows up in the data as a record vacancy rate in the years 2006 10 in the last couple of years the vacancy rate has begun to decline which can explain the recent uptick in housing over the last few quarters this housing story explains why we should have expected a long and drawn out recovery there is no easy way to replace the massive loss in demand associated with the collapse of the housing sector and it is hard to blame the collapse on president obama since the overbuilding took place in the years 2000 2006 and the collapse was already well underway at the point where he took office ultimately we will need an increase in foreign demand meaning a lower trade deficit to fill the gap this will require a lower valued dollar which will make u s goods more competitive internationally unfortunately neither candidate seems willing to make the case for a lower valued dollar which means that we can probably expect a weak economy for many years into the future regardless of who gets elected posted by james at 10 20 pm 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday may 29 2012 s p case shiller national home price index falls again in the first quarter of 2012 the s p case shiller national home price index fell 1 9 year over year data through march 2012 released today by s p indices for its s p case shiller home price indices the leading measure of u s home prices showed that all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post crisis lows the national composite fell by 2 0 in the first quarter of 2012 and was down 1 9 versus the first quarter of 2011 the 10 and 20 city composites posted respective annual returns of 2 8 and 2 6 in march 2012 month over month their changes were minimal average home prices in the 10 city composite fell by 0 1 compared to february and the 20 city remained basically unchanged in march over february however with these latest data all three composites still posted their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid 2006 the s p case shiller u s national home price index which covers all nine u s census divisions posted a 1 9 decline in the first quarter of 2012 over the first quarter of 2011 unfortunately crappy journalists at several different news organizations keep emphasizing the 20 city numbers instead of the national numbers why why would anyone think that an index that measures a random selection of 20 cities deserves more emphasis than an index that covers the overall country note the s p case shiller national home price index really only measures 70 of the country but that s still way more than just 20 cities posted by james at 9 57 am 4 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday may 23 2012 housing recovery a long way off in a cnbc editorial michael yoshikami argues that a housing market recovery is still a long way away housing starts were surprisingly strong this week while there was improving sentiment from home builders so should we start to breathe a sigh of relief that the housing market is returning to health the short answer is no the headlines say that housing is stabilizing and there are signs of life in the real estate sector this is true but is only part of the story signs of life is far different than a return to healthier times while kb homes and toll brothers are reporting sales increases this does not erase the fundamental problem with the real estate market today there are too many people wanting to sell and not enough buyers in some neighborhoods in the united states every other house is for sale and sitting stagnant with no takers but this is the obvious sign that the real estate market is troubled there are deeper problems below the surface what is more troubling is in every block in neighborhoods across the united states there are huge numbers of potential sellers that would sell their house if they could get the price they believe their house is worth this huge reserve of sellers creates a supply waiting to flood the market when any sign of recovery in real estate capital values returns additionally banks continue to hold huge inventories of foreclosed properties waiting for a rebound in the market before placing these properties into the real estate market in addition to supply issues the u s economy is far from healthy while we are in the midst of an uneven recovery unemployment remains stubbornly high and the prospects of a more normalized employment rate are far off in the distance posted by james at 5 36 am 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday april 28 2012 why did america s housing bubble decline more than in other countries much of the developed world especially america and europe had a housing bubble the economist asks why america s fell so much faster than the bubbles in europe perhaps the difference is institutional american banks had poorer lending standards and have been quicker to foreclose on properties borrowers have been readier to walk away from their homes in european countries owners have been able to sit tight in the hope that prices will recover european markets are certainly a lot less liquid irish transaction volumes dropped by 83 from their peak and spanish ones by 64 but american deals fell by just 46 europe is going in the same direction as america it is just getting there more slowly posted by james at 12 52 am 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest thursday april 19 2012 updated housing graphs i have updated my national housing bubble graphs to reflect the latest data available it covers home prices from 1970 2011 it looks like u s home prices are fairly valued although it varies by metro area as i said in the past i don t expect any significant overshooting nationally i stick by that prediction here the red line represents inflation adjusted housing prices and the blue line reflects nominal housing prices the graph below compares the change in home prices to the change in owner equivalent rents over time without any bubbles they should increase at roughly the same rate over time posted by james at 7 02 am 7 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 28 2012 s p case shiller national hpi shows 4 fall in home prices u s home prices fell 4 0 during 2011 data through december 2011 released today by s p indices for its s p case shiller home price indices the leading measure of u s home prices showed that all three headline composites ended 2011 at new index lows the national composite fell by 3 8 during the fourth quarter of 2011 and was down 4 0 versus the fourth quarter of 2010 both the 10 and 20 city composites fell by 1 1 in december over november and posted annual returns of 3 9 and 4 0 versus december 2010 respectively these are worse than the 3 8 respective annual rates both reported for november with these latest data all three composites are at their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid 2006 note only the national composite index really matters when measuring the national housing market ignore the 10 and 20 city indexes in addition to both composites 18 of the 20 msas saw monthly declines in december over november miami and phoenix were up 0 2 and 0 8 respectively at 12 8 atlanta continued to post the lowest annual return detroit was the only city to post a positive annual return 0 5 in december versus the same month in 2010 in addition to the three composites atlanta las vegas seattle and tampa each saw average home prices hit new lows translation washington dc metro area home prices fell too as i pointed out yesterday phoenix detroit and miami are dirt cheap so the prices should rise las vegas and tampa are also dirt cheap but apparently prices are still falling there in terms of prices the housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note says david m blitzer chairman of the index committee at s p indices with this month s report we saw all three composite hit new record lows while we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011 it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended after a prior three years of accelerated decline the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized up until today s report we had believed the crisis lows for the composites were behind us with the 10 city composite originally hitting a low in april 2009 and the 20 city composite in march 2011 now it looks like neither was the case as both hit new record lows in december 2011 the national composite fell by 3 8 in the fourth quarter alone and is down 33 8 from its 2nd quarter 2006 peak it also recorded a new record low in general most of the regions also posted weak data in december eighteen of the cities saw average home prices fall in december over november seventeen of the cities have seen monthly declines for at least three consecutive months in addition to both monthly composites 10 of the cities saw home prices fall by more than 1 0 during the month of december the pick up in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized if anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012 to paraphrase annie the bottom the bottom i love you the bottom you re always a year away posted by james at 1 05 pm 5 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest monday february 27 2012 warren buffett is a housing bull billionaire investor warren buffett believes housing is a better investment than stocks right now warren buffett says along with equities single family homes are a very attractive investment right now appearing live on cnbc s squawk box buffett tells becky quick he d buy up millions of single family homes if it were practical to do so if held for a long period of time and purchased at low rates buffett says houses are even better than stocks he advises buyers to take out a 30 year mortgage and refinance if rates go down his housing recommendation is likely based on the fact that mortgage rates are incredibly low right now nationally home prices are no cheaper than their pre bubble norm although it varies depending on where you live i believe that some housing markets are far better buys than others cities with very high unemployment rates have dirt cheap home prices right now places like las vegas phoenix detroit and most of florida have prices below their historical norms posted by james at 11 51 am 0 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday february 14 2012 happy valentine s day renters we get no respect no respect at all in a survey of 1 000 single people more than a third of women and 18 of men said they would much rather date a homeowner than a renter ouch only 2 of women said they preferred to date a man who rents while only 3 of men said they would choose a woman who rents over one that owns her home according to the survey which was conducted by harris interactive for real estate site trulia both sexes also clearly prefer it when there s no roommate in the picture 62 of survey respondents men and women prefer to date singles who live alone trulia also asked which home features are the biggest turn ons number one turned out to be a master bath men 64 love that private sanctum almost as much as women 75 do walk in closets were cited by 55 of men and 72 of women and gourmet kitchens got 51 of the male vote and 62 of the female hardwood floors outdoor decks and home theaters also came in high on the list posted by james at 6 22 am 6 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest older posts home subscribe to posts atom subscribe to bubble meter posts atom posts all comments atom all comments the bubble meter philosophy the best way to get the housing market thriving again is to drop prices to the point where supply equals demand home sellers might not like it but it s good for buyers and it s great for realtors for realtors the best way to make more money is to sell houses quickly and the best way to sell houses quickly is to convince the seller to drop the price bubble meter contributers david james my other blog loading housing prices since 1970 national housing sites the house bubble housing doom housing bubble paper economy a us real estate bubble blog redfin doctor housing bubble housingtracker matrix the real estate bloggers the mortgage lender implode o meter david lereah watch lawrence yun watch housing bubble graphs vanguard reit etf performance regional housing sites bay area real estate blog boston bubble burbed san francisco dc home prices flippers in trouble sacramento frankly realty virginia greater northern va housing bubble fallout irvine housing blog new jersey real estate report patrick net san francisco portland housing proffesor piggington san deigo sacramento land ing blog seattle bubble socal real estate bubble blog socket site san francisco vancouver condo info economic sites are you middle class credit score wiz policy economy my other blog zero hedge the mess that greenspan made nouriel roubini s blog news n economics mish s global economic trend analysis calculated risk big picture angry bear stoxford stock charts iacono research ad when will inflation adjusted dc area housing prices return to pre bubble levels are housing prices about to experience a double dip how should the u s government balance the budget check all that apply what is your political affiliation what sparked the housing bubble is the recession over who bears responsibility for the housing bubble check all that apply what is your living situation was subprime lending a cause or an effect of the housing bubble follow bubble meter bubble meter archive 2014 1 august 1 the investment performance of reits 2013 1 october 1 2012 14 august 1 may 2 april 2 february 3 january 6 2011 132 december 8 november 7 october 11 september 12 august 16 july 8 june 12 may 17 april 7 march 18 february 8...