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s coming at last 16 comments 3a news and comments 3b the svensmark hypothesis tagged climate change cosmic rays henrik svensmark ipcc lars oxfeldt mortensen paradigm shift roy spencer permalink posted by calderup sun still sulks 20 06 2010 pick of the pics and climate change news and comments the sun still sulks two magnetograms from the esa nasa soho spacecraft contrast the sun s liveliness of exactly 10 years ago 20 june 2000 on the left with its feeble performance today 20 june 2010 on the right in these images made with stanford s michelson doppler interferometer north magnetic polarity is white south magnetic polarity is black solstice sunrise over stonehenge 2005 credit user solipsist as many thousands flock to stonehenge for tomorrow s summer solstice this is a moment to ask for the umpteenth time what the sun is up to the mean sunspot number in june 2000 was 119 today it is 28 with the spots clustered in the northern region showing most magnetic activity since 2004 there have been 803 days with no sunspots at all 35 in 2010 260 in 2009 during a typical sunspot minimum there are fewer than 500 spotless days in the current issue of the royal astronomical society s magazine astronomy and geophysics nigel weiss of cambridge considers the long term variability of the sun and alternative theories about it especially concerning grand maxima in activity like that in the 20th century and grand minima like the maunder minimum of 300 years ago associated with the little ice age weiss s conclusion is that there s a 40 chance the current grand maximum will be followed by a grand minimum as for the climatic implications weiss and i agreed to differ some years ago although we both say that the intergovernmental panel on climate change underestimates the influence of the sun weiss thinks it can t compete with man made global warming his article ends even if the sun does enter a new maunder like grand minimum any cooling effect will be small compared with the warming produced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases contrast that with henrik svensmark s conclusion in an article for the danish newspaper jyllands posten that the sun might now fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by solar scientists at a meeting in kiruna in sweden two years ago so when nigel calder and i updated our book the chilling stars we wrote a little provocatively that we are advising our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts in fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning mojib latif from the university of kiel argued at the recent un world climate conference in geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years his explanation was a natural change in the north atlantic circulation not in solar activity but no matter how you interpret them natural variations in climate are making a comeback the outcome may be that the sun itself will demonstrate its importance for climate and so challenge the theories of global warming no climate model has predicted a cooling of the earth quite the contrary and this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable a forecast saying it may be either warmer or colder for 50 years is not very useful and science is not yet able to predict solar activity so in many ways we stand at a crossroads the near future will be extremely interesting i think it is important to accept that nature pays no heed to what we humans think about it will the greenhouse theory survive a significant cooling of the earth not in its current dominant form unfortunately tomorrow s climate challenges will be quite different from the greenhouse theory s predictions perhaps it will become fashionable again to investigate the sun s impact on our climate references n weiss modulation of the sunspot cycle astronomy and geophysics vol 51 pp 3 9 3 15 2010 h svensmark while the sun sleeps in danish j yllands posten 9 september 2009 for a related post on this blog see https calderup wordpress com 2010 05 12 puzzling sun postscript on the song of the sun i see that sheffield solar physicists now generate music from observations of the magnetic coronal loops read about it and hear it http www telegraph co uk science space 7840201 music of the sun recorded by scientists html for an earlier song of the sun using its internal vibrations seen by soho s mdi click on the second item here but beware it s about 18 mb with visuals http www esa int esasc semlajwo4hd_index_0 html leave a comment 3a news and comments 5 pick of the pics tagged astronomy and geophysics climate change grand maxima grand minima henrik svensmark ipcc jyllands posten little ice age maunder minimum mdi mojib latif nigel calder nigel weiss soho spacecraft solar activity song of sun stonehenge sunspot number the chilling stars permalink posted by calderup soil h2o from space 06 06 2010 pick of the pics climate change news and comments soil moisture around the amazon gauged from space a plot of microwave brightness temperatures measures the water content of the soil around the lower amazon this is an early result from europe s soil moisture and ocean salinity satellite smos launched in november 2009 and formally operational since late may 2010 it s a sample of what is now becoming available globally every 3 days and smos should help to fill a huge gap in human knowledge of the water cycle credit esa smos despite repeated claims that the weather system is known well enough for making multi decade forecasts of the changing climate the ignorance can be truly profound the global water cycle is a key theme where understanding is poor and reliable data are notoriously scanty the intergovernmental panel on climate change avoids forthright language that might dismay those who want to treat its findings as gospel yet in relevant parts of working group i s 2007 report there are hints of desperation see section 3 3 changes in surface climate precipitation drought and surface hydrology available here http www ipcc ch publications_and_data ar4 wg1 en ch3s3 3 html soil moisture is crucial as a climate factor in its own right vital for natural and cultivated plant growth and for the management of water resources as a strong influence on the global carbon cycle by its contribution to terrestrial photosynthesis as a way station in the hydrological system s non stop traffic between rainfall evaporation transpiration from plants and run off into streams and rivers if you want ever to model the water cycle accurately you really must know the soil moisture content the european space agency claims for smos an accuracy of 4 comparable to detecting one teaspoon of water mixed into a handful of soil from an altitude of 760 km a calculation gives the water content in soil to a depth of 1 2 metres the root zone how s it done the presence of water affects the electromagnetic behaviour of soil and hence the intensity of radio microwaves that it radiates but the long wavelength about 20 cm of the most useful microwaves implies that you need a large radio telescope in space to observe them well smos pictured by esa the l band radiometer on smos called miras uses the radio astronomers technique of aperture synthesis it simulates a much bigger antenna with 69 small antennas strung out along three arms arranged in a y and so resolves areas 50 km wide within a hexagon on the earth s surface about 1000 km across the same instrument on smos gauges the saltiness of sea water using the electromagnetic contrast between pure water and salty water hence ocean salinity in the mission s name but that s another story good luck to mission manager susanne mecklenburg mission scientist matthias drusch and all the smos team leave a comment 3a news and comments 5 pick of the pics tagged amazon river carbon cycle esa ipcc miras smos soil moisture water cycle permalink posted by calderup climate change intro 01 05 2010 climate change introduction this section of calder s updates is unavoidably a battleground but within reason it will stick to the physics and dodge the propaganda that surrounds climate research headings in this section news and comments watching developments the svensmark hypothesis outlining the science fal sification tests digging deeper into the physics updating the chilling stars with evolving stories in 1997 the manic sun by nigel calder was the first book to describe a new wonder of nature namely henrik svensmark s discovery that the effect of cosmic rays on clouds amplifies the influence of the sun on the earth s climate ten years of progress with the physics led to a second book the chilling stars in 2007 co authored with svensmark i was also a script consultant to mortensen film for the tv programme about svensmark s work the cloud mystery despite plenty of time to re consider the story if it had turned out to be foolish the evidence looks better and better as the years pass yet most climate scientists still ignore or reject svensmark s findings from observations of the real world physics experiments and theoretical analyses scoffing or vehement objections come from supporters of the man made global warming hypothesis who realise that the svensmark hypothesis offers the strongest challenge to the assumptions in their climate models that predict climatic catastrophe the customary give and take arguments among experts about which scientific theory fits the facts better would be fair enough but since climate physics became a political issue the involvement of governments funding agencies scientific journals and the media in propagating a particular view of climate change has made rational debate difficult here s a comment from svensmark in an interview by discover magazine july 2007 question in 1996 when you reported that changes in the sun s activity could explain most or all of the recent rise in earth s temperature the chairman of the united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change called your announcement extremely naive and irresponsible how did you react svensmark i was just stunned i remember being shocked by how many thought what i was doing was terrible i couldn t understand it because when you are a physicist you are trained that when you find something that cannot be explained something that doesn t fit that is what you are excited about if there is a possibility that you might have an explanation that is something that everybody thinks is what you should pursue here was exactly the opposite reaction it was as though people were saying to me this is something that you should not have done that was very strange for me and it has been more or less like that ever since to me calder as a reporter of major discoveries that went on to win nobel prizes in several different fields the contrast between flimsy conjecture and creative brainpower backed by real evidence is fairly obvious being a generalist rather than a specialist reporter of climate science also helps to keep me objective but i m not inexperienced or ignorant in this field it can be irritating when warmist journalists and campaigners with no relevant training of their own try to question my competence hey i ve even published a couple of formal scientific papers of my own calder s writing and editing on climate related subjects 2007 updated 2008 book the chilling stars a new theory of climate change j oint author with henrik svensmark 2003 book magic universe the oxford guide to modern science topics include biosphere from space carbon cycle climate change cosmic rays cryosphere earthshine earth system el niño ocean currents solar wind and volcanic explosions 1999 scientific paper the carbon dioxide thermometer energy environment 1999 vol 10 pp 1 18 on how co 2 seems to respond to climate change rather than the other way around 1997 book the manic sun weather theories confounded about the sun climate including svensmark s initial discovery about cosmic rays and clouds 1991 book and related tv series spaceship earth about earth observation including space observations of clouds storms temperatures ice oceans bioproductivity land use and deforestation 1990 book scientific europe editor for foundation scientific europe it includes climate articles by hermann flohn bert bolin paul crutzen and lennart bengtsson 1983 book timescale an atlas of the fourth dimension among many other topics it traces climate change from the first ice ages 2300 million years ago to the little ice age ending in 1850 1974 book and related 2 hour tv programme the weather machine these included the first public reports of the confirmation of the milankovitch ice age hypothesis participants on tv include hubert lamb nicholas shackleton john imbrie willi dansgaard george kukla syukuro manabe and bert bolin 1974 scientific paper the arithmetic of ice ages nature vol 2 52 pp 216 18 with the first formal confirmation of the milankovitch effect done with a pocket calculator to legitimize what we were saying in the weather machine 1973 book nature in the round a guide to environmental science editor includes articles on climate change by l p smith and grahame clark 1968 book unless peace comes e ditor includes g ordon macdonald on weather and climate modification as weapons of war 1965 book the world in 1984 editor for new scientist among about 100 commissioned 20 yr forecasts contributions on weather climate came from graham sutton fred singer d a davies roger revelle calder has often spoken about climate change in lectures and on tv and radio including an interview 2007 for the great global warming swindle wagtv s production for channel 4 h e has published articles on the subject since 1961 leave a comment 3 climate change tagged clouds cosmic rays ipcc man made global warming hypothesis solar variability svensmark hypothesis the chilling stars the cloud mystery henrik svensmark the manic sun permalink posted by calderup categories 1 mother nature 1a magic universe 1b einstein s universe 1c comets 2 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