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become golden pillows that are best to nimble at them only to stuff more feathers hard lessons learnt for destroying past pillows in 2008 due to greed know what is enough and control greed got to work harder to look out for next pillow posted by createwealth8888 at 09 01 0 comments labels noble stock market is war part 1 if stock market is war so are you aware of the art of war sun tzu the art of war the oldest military treatise in the world the priciples of warfare calculations sun tzu said warfare is a great matter to a nation it is the ground of death and of life it is the way of survival and of destruction and must be examined therefore go through it by means of five factors compare them by means of calculation and determine their statuses one way two heaven three ground four general five law 1 the way is what causes the people to have the same thinking as their superiors they may be given death or they may be given life but there is no fear of danger and betrayal 2 heaven is dark and light cold and hot and the seasonal constraints 3 ground is high and low far and near obstructed and easy wide and narrow and dangerous and safe 4 general is wisdom credibility benevolence courage and discipline 5 law is organization the chain of command logistics and the control of expenses all these five no general has not heard one who knows them is victorious one who does not know them is not victorious therefore compare them by means of calculation and determine their statuses when you come to invest or trade in the stock market you are the general and so are you aware of the art of war there are two books available in nlb sun tzu on investing by curtis j montgomery the 36 strategies of the chinese for financial traders by daryl guppy posted by createwealth8888 at 08 17 0 comments labels education trading market wednesday 23 september 2009 will we see a sti butterfly today sti hit 13 month high 2 685 63 on tuesday closing posted by createwealth8888 at 07 19 0 comments labels sti tuesday 22 september 2009 active investing passive investing and active monitoring investopedia explains active investing active investing is highly involved unlike passive investors who invest in a stock when they believe in its potential for long term appreciation active investors will typically look at the price movements of their stocks many times a day typically active investors are seeking short term profits what does active investing mean an investment strategy involving ongoing buying and selling actions by the investor active investors purchase investments and continuously monitor their activity in order to exploit profitable conditions what does passive investing mean an investment strategy involving limited ongoing buying and selling actions passive investors will purchase investments with the intention of long term appreciation and limited maintenance investopedia explains passive investing also known as a buy and hold or couch potato st rategy passive investing requires good initial research patience and a well diversified portfolio unlike active investors passive investors buy a security and typically don t actively attempt to profit from short term price fluctuations passive investors instead rely on their belief that in the long term the investment will be profitable some value investors think that by active monitoring of their portfolio made them active investors when actually they are not posted by createwealth8888 at 21 53 1 comments labels education trading style can they comfortably afford them very often we hear some people saying these 1 when they are sick they need private medical care 2 when their child is sick they need paediatrician 3 when their wife is pregnant they need car are these real needs can they comfortably afford them trust me some 22 years have passed i happily went through without them maybe you need them badly i don t know posted by createwealth8888 at 13 27 0 comments labels education financial noble cic as new investor seoul singapore the noble group said on tuesday it had agreed to place 573 million shares for a total of approximately us 850 million to china investment corporation cic at a price of s 2 1137 per share posted by createwealth8888 at 07 56 0 comments labels news noble monday 21 september 2009 the story of the duck imagine that there were 100 people participating in a guessing game of only 3 probabilities the richest and smartest amongst them played the banker the rest of the 99 were just players the 99 players had to board a huge machine that the banker had control over the players had to guess which direction the banker would move the machine either up down or still to make the guessing easier for the players the banker gave them one hint and the rest was up to them each of the players had only to pay 50 to join the game for a grand prize of 1 000 each if they guessed correctly after analysing and weighing the odds they were all convinced it was a pretty good deal the hint went this there is a duck in the middle of a pond floating peacefully an alligator is coming silently from behind it how do you think the duck would react said the banker the players were laughing inside their hearts thinking what a straightforward hint everyone was busy writing down their answers on pieces of paper provided to them earlier ok time s up please raise your answers so that i can see them clearly instructed the banker they all displayed their answers joyfully 80 of them chose up 15 of them chose still and only 4 chose down the banker looked at their answers and gathered that in order to win he had to move the machine down so that 95 of them would lose and only 4 would win and so he moved the machine down the 80 of them who chose up became furious because they found the answer ridiculous they stood up voicing their objections even the stupidest duck would fly for its life the other 15 joined the opposition weren t you trying to fool us with a plastic duck why would a duck dive into the water knowing very well it would never out swim an alligator the banker answered smilingly i quite agree with all of your theories and analyses but unfortunately the duck was at the moment unaware of the approaching alligator and so happened to dive into the water to catch its meal a fish moral of the story the market s predator have learned understand and now know very clearly the habits and weakness of their ever naive they are just like a fisherman who knows exactly where he can find his fish the various baits he should use for different type of fish and the best time to fish by observing the tides to ensure a fruitful trip full of catch no matter how many times he goes back to the same place with the same bait the same load of fish fall into his net createwealth8888 the market makers play the role of the bankers and especially true for markets such as covered warrants and retail forex the market sharks are also waiting at major technical charting points turning points or levels and they have all the resources and expertise to know the charts better than anyone here and we are so naive to think that we can beat the market sharks at their game so just open your eyes wide and understand why sometime market moves unexpectedly in the opposite direction the sharks are in action posted by createwealth8888 at 13 18 0 comments labels education trading market investing in stock market as your business or your pension fund do you invest in stock market as your business or pension fund most value investors are likely to treat investing in stock market as pension fund the objective of a pension fund is long term investment and hopefully with regular dividend income re investing dividend income and capital appreciation for future draw down but if you treat investing in stock market as business as i do the approach to investing is completely different as a business owner you have to actively manage revenue stock inventories and cash flow you have to set average monthly revenue target to ensure that you can meet the yearly revenue target sometime to meet the average monthly revenue target you have to trim the inventory level by doing a clearance sale on stocks for lesser realized profit than expected you may have to maintain sufficient inventories to meet your short mid and long term business goals or even change the mix of inventories by disposing slow moving stocks that are not going anywhere or stock up with more exciting stocks you are very active on cash flow management to ensure that you have sufficient purchasing power to pick up your inventories when discounted assets are available for sales in the market as a business owner your main objective is to keep expanding the business further and to achieve higher and higher revenues as possible and to ensure future business growth is achieved within your risks management to meet your final investment goals posted by createwealth8888 at 09 54 0 comments labels education trading biz be far better at selling than at buying samuel johnson between falsehood and useless truth there is little difference as gold which he cannot spend will make no man rich so knowledge which he cannot apply will make no man wise knowing what is enough for us will help to set profit target and understanding that paper profit will make no one rich so we have to be far better at selling than at buying realized profit is real money and can be used to buy more stocks when stocks pullback or buy more lower price stocks to achieve compounding effects when stocks are more volatile it is even more important to learn the art of selling and to overcome seller s remorse and price volatility may actually help to provide us with good opportunity for buying and selling posted by createwealth8888 at 07 56 0 comments labels education trading selling sunday 20 september 2009 understanding prospect theory by albert phung traditionally it is believed the net effect of the gains and losses involved with each choice are combined to present an overall evaluation of whether a choice is desirable academics tend to use utility to describe enjoyment and contend that we prefer instances that maximize our utility endif however research has found that we don t actually process information in such a rational way in 1979 kahneman and tversky presented an idea called prospect theory which contends that people value gains and losses differently and as such will base decisions on perceived gains rather than perceived losses thus if a person were given two equal choices one expressed in terms of possible gains and the other in possible losses people would choose the former even when they achieve the same economic end result according to prospect theory losses have more emotional impact than an equivalent amount of gains for example in a traditional way of thinking the amount of utility gained from receiving 50 should be equal to a situation in which you gained 100 and then lost 50 in both situations the end result is a net gain of 50 however despite the fact that you still end up with a 50 gain in either case most people view a single gain of 50 more favorably than gaining 100 and then losing 50 evidence for irrational behavior kahneman and tversky conducted a series of studies in which subjects answered questions that involved making judgments between two monetary decisions that involved prospective losses and gains for example the following questions were used in their study you have 1 000 and you must pick one of the following choices choice a you have a 50 chance of gaining 1 000 and a 50 chance of gaining 0 choice b you have a 100 chance of gaining 500 you have 2 000 and you must pick one of the following choices choice a you have a 50 chance of losing 1 000 and 50 of losing 0 choice b you have a 100 chance of losing 500 if the subjects had answered logically they would pick either a or b in both situations people choosing b would be more risk adverse than those choosing a however the results of this study showed that an overwhelming majority of people chose b for question 1 and a for question 2 the implication is that people are willing to settle for a reasonable level of gains even if they have a reasonable chance of earning more but are willing to engage in risk seeking behaviors where they can limit their losses in other words losses are weighted more heavily than an equivalent amount of gains it is this line of thinking that created the asymmetric value function this function is a representation of the difference in utility amount of pain or joy that is achieved as a result of a certain amount of gain or loss it is key to note that not everyone would have a value function that looks exactly like this this is the general trend the most evident feature is how a loss creates a greater feeling of pain compared to the joy created by an equivalent gain for example the absolute joy felt in finding 50 is a lot less than the absolute pain caused by losing 50 consequently when multiple gain loss events happen each event is valued separately and then combined to create a cumulative feeling for example according to the value function if you find 50 but then lose it soon after this would cause an overall effect of 40 units of utility finding the 50 causes 10 points of utility joy but losing the 50 causes 50 points of utility pain to most of us this makes sense it is a fair bet that you d be kicking yourself over losing the 50 that you just found financial relevance the prospect theory can be used to explain quite a few illogical financial behaviors for example there are people who do not wish to put their money in the bank to earn interest or who refuse to work overtime because they don t want to pay more taxes although these people would benefit financially from the additional after tax income prospect theory suggests that the benefit or utility gained from the extra money is not enough to overcome the feelings of loss incurred by paying taxes prospect theory also explains the occurrence of the disposition effect which is the tendency for investors to hold on to losing stocks for too long and sell winning stocks too soon the most logical course of action would be to hold on to winning stocks in order to further gains and to sell losing stocks in order to prevent escalating losses when it comes to selling winning stocks prematurely consider kahneman and tversky s study in which people were willing to settle for a lower guaranteed gain of 500 compared to choosing a riskier option that either yields a gain of 1 000 or 0 t his explains why investors realize the gains of winning stocks too soon in each situation both the subjects in the study and investors seek to cash in on the amount of gains that have already been guaranteed the flip side of the coin is investors that hold on to losing stocks for too long like the study s subjects investors are willing to assume a higher level of risk in order to avoid the negative utility of a prospective loss unfortu...
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