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s price stability we had achieved since the 80s at december 08 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest wednesday december 7 2022 the way the cookie crumbles below the footnotes of the 1968 article the threat of wage and price controls at fee dot org there is this brief thought from irving s olds the price of price controls the whole recorded history of man is strewn with the wreckage of the great civilizations which have crumbled under price controls and in forty centuries of human experience there has never been so far as i can discover a single case where such controls have stopped or even curbed for long the forces of inflation on the contrary in every instance i can find they have discouraged production created shortages and aggravated the very evils they were intended to cure irving s olds caught my attention because of the end of civilizations thing but the emphasis on price controls is misplaced i looked the guy up irving sands olds 1887 1963 was an american lawyer and philanthropist he served as chairman of the board and chief executive officer of u s steel from 1940 to 1952 and was partner at white case ceo of us steel perhaps his remarks on price controls were in response to the wage price guideposts of the kennedy era which were established after the us steel price hike of 1962 kennedy had been told us steel would not raise prices ten years earlier truman had nationalized the steel industry and the supreme court shot that down i make three brief points and focus on the third civilizations don t crumble because of price controls civilizations don t crumble because of the inflation that gives rise to price controls civilizations crumble because that unrelenting inflation is cost push the kind of inflation that undermines economic growth civilizations crumble when economic growth is undermined because like a shark civilization must keep moving forward or it will die toynbee said as much page 10 why did the barbarians ultimately break through because when a frontier between a more highly and a less highly civilized society ceases to advance the balance does not settle down to a stable equilibrium but inclines with the passage of time in the more backward society s favour so did quigley page 141 after centuries of expansion our society is now organized so that it cannot subsist it must expand or it will collapse and keynes in his toast to economists economists who are the trustees not of civilization but of the possibility of civilization perhaps old irv olds was just saying the same but i don t think so at december 07 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest tuesday december 6 2022 lindblom i think highly of the social reformer not of course the crank with his panacea but the imaginative thinker who combines a concern for the general welfare with a conviction that man within limits can intelligently plan his social structure charles lindblom in unions and capitalism 1949 at december 06 2022 no comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest saturday december 3 2022 an insufficiently studied phenomenon inflation is probably the most studied topic in all of economics how inflation gets started must be the least studied topic at december 03 2022 1 comment email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest friday december 2 2022 a better dream in wage policy in recovery by h b shaffer june 21 1961 under the heading risks in reviving a protectionist trade policy we read competition from foreign producers encourages affected business and labor groups to press for higher tariff barriers and more rigorous import restrictions of other kinds to protect the domestic market yielding to such pressure to any significant extent would run counter to the longstanding american policy of encouraging freer trade among non communist countries would invite reprisals restrictive of american sales abroad and would complicate u s participation in the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and in the organization for economic cooperation and development a newly formed 20 nation economic alliance scheduled to begin operations next september what shaffer is reporting as the source of this problem as i see it is the longstanding american policy of encouraging freer trade free trade in other words is not good enough it has to be freer and we have to encourage that we can not abandon the policy or even tone it down a bit because that would interfere with our freer trade plans for the general agreement on tariffs and trade and the oecd the reason we cannot tone down those plans in other words is that we don t want to that was in 1961 but things haven t changed much since then we use policy to encourage certain things and those things generally come about if our economy grows worse as a result perhaps it is because the people who decide what to encourage do so based only on what is best for themselves or maybe they re just wrong i am reminded of a better plan proposed by hayek neither an omnipotent super state nor a loose association of free nations but a community of nations of free men must be our goal i am reminded also of the strategy that would let the hayek plan succeed if nations can learn to provide themselves with full employment by their domestic policy and we must add if they can also attain equilibrium in the trend of their population there need be no important economic forces calculated to set the interest of one country against that of its neighbours free trade as we know it today promotes the merging of nation states into economic communities like the european union such communities in principle are lovely but we are finding out the hard way that economic community is not enough to make the plan work political unification is also required so behind the scenes the culture is modified until people begin to think in terms of the super state to think in terms of europe rather than france to think of themselves as europeans rather than frenchmen people are being manipulated to facilitate the progress of the super state the super state is promoted as better for the economy that is a crock if you can t fix the economy of a nation state you damn sure will not be able to fix the economy of the super state if we cannot learn to provide ourselves with adequate employment by our domestic policy at the nation state level surely we will never achieve it at the super state level the whole concept of the super state in my uneducated opinion is the product of the mealy minds of the already super wealthy whose further accumulations are in some small degree hindered by national boundaries and the economic policies they contain the concept is supported by lesser wealth holders with unrealistic dreams of super size wealth and by those with neither wealth nor a better dream to turn to the omnipotent super state that hayek rejects i should add is the same as the universal state of arnold j toynbee and the universal empire of carroll quigley this super state appears late in the cycle of civilization shortly before the dark age which brings the cycle to completion is this dire prediction no it is only a way of looking at the world i suppose we could just wait to see if it turns out again to be true unless you have something better to do like calling for change in the policies that promote our continuing decline at december 02 2022 2 comments email this blogthis share to x share to facebook share to pinterest labels too much opinion and not enough econ newer posts older posts home subscribe to posts atom why economists must think in terms of the cycle of civilization i ve been hearing the phrase late capitalism for so long that i m forced to conclude that the very concept of late cap looks like vigor to me went to harbor freight the other day when i left there was so much traffic i had to fight my way out of the parking lot at one p m on let s see if this one gets me into trouble as i write this it is mid october in an even numbered year elections are weeks away yesterday i saw republican candidates heavily adver not the rate of interest but the cost of finance not inflation but the decline of growth it is surely true that the price level cannot rise without a corresponding increase in the quantity of money or velocity or use of credit the most important difference between cost push and demand pull inflation i m not a fan of diagrams in economics but sometimes this is a screen capture of slide 36 from a slideshare presentatio federal debt is the measure of economic troubles in the private sector not the cause of them the cause is excessive private sector debt private debt is too big and too costly it slows the economy it slows income growth it makes decent jobs scarce we lost our greatness to excessive private sector debt we can regain american greatness by reducing private debt if we do so before china has all the greatness note that we have many policies to encourage the use of credit and no policies to encourage repayment of debt selected fred data free ebooks forever fadedpage levy institute publications art s old vigor page click folder tab to view contents quick quotes on debt sbt hover for the quote click for the source steve keen sbe thomas palley sbe palley again same source sbe arthurian spontaneous sbe arthurian sbe id a j toynbee a study of history unabridged vol 1 page 1 abridgement vol 1 thru 10 id mostly old cost push stuff 1937 the general theory of employment 1958 the phillips curve paper 1959 charles schultze recent inflation in the united states 1960 richard lipsey on the phillips curve 1960 samuelson and solow problem of achieving and maintaining a stable price level 1962 arthur okun potential gdp its measurement and significance 1968 friedman s presidential address the role of monetary policy or alt link 1970 milton friedman the counter revolution in monetary theory 1974 f a hayek prize lecture the pretense of knowledge 1977 thomas m humphrey on cost push theories of inflation in the pre war monetary literature id papers by johannes a schwarzer sbt samuelson and solow on the phillips curve and the menu of choice a retrospective 2013 sbe growth as an objective of economic policy in the early 1960s the role of aggregate demand 2014 sbe price stability versus full employment the phillips curve dilemma reconsidered 2016 sbe retrospectives cost push and demand pull inflation milton friedman and the cruel dilemma 2018 sbe id papers by norikazu takami 1950s cost push sbt baffling inflation cost push inflation theories in the late 1950s united states 2014 sbe the baffling new inflation how cost push inflation theories influenced policy debate in the late 1950s united states 2015 sbe id archive org links sbt archive org home sbe note at archive org the upper right corner search is for all of archive org to search the open book click the search icon on the left side of the window and use quotes around search phrases sbe historical statistics thru 1970 part 1 arrighi g the long twentieth century dalio r economic principles how the economic machine works delong h a profile of mathematical logic r c k ensor england 1870 1914 finley m i the ancient economy friedman m free to choose friedman m money mischief kissinger h the meaning of history reflections on spengler toynbee and kant leuchtenburg w franklin d roosevelt and the new deal leuchtenburg w the perils of prosperity lot ferdinand the end of the ancient world and the beginnings of the middle ages montagu a toynbee and history critical essays and reviews mullineux a w business cycles and financial crises quigley the evolution of civilizations rostovtzeff the social and economic history of the roman empire terborgh george the new economics tooke thomas an inquiry into the currency principle toynbee aj a study of history volumes i vi abridged wanniski jude the way the world works sbe id timelines industrial capitalism sbe mercantile capitalism sbe 10000 years of economy sbe id blog themes and on the pedestal these words appear my name is ozymandias king of kings look on my works ye mighty and despair nothing beside remains shelley toynbee maintained that the fate of civilizations is determined by their response to the challenges facing them stefan zenker the ideas of economists and political philosophers both when they are right and when they are wrong are more powerful than is commonly understood indeed the world is ruled by little else j m keynes economic policy encourages credit use and discourages the repayment of debt that s how we in the private sector got so indebted nathan becker attempts to describe complex interactions in the economy with overly simple adages can lead to incorrect conclusions meyer and tasci i remarked that a plurality of suffrages is no guarantee of truth where it is at all of difficult discovery as in such cases it is much more likely that it will be found by one than by many descartes i have thought it important not only to explain my own point of view but also to show in what respects it departs from the prevailing theory j m keynes blogthemes blog archive 2025 136 october 4 september 19 august 12 july 6 june 10 may 11 april 23 march 19 february 11 january 21 2024 100 december 15 november 9 october 14 september 10 august 7 july 12 june 7 may 3 march 13 february 7 january 3 2023 118 december 6 november 15 october 8 september 8 august 4 july 3 june 16 may 15 april 12 march 8 february 12 january 11 2022 159 december 22 the theory of problematic debt a response to do entrepreneurs constitute a class six moments arthurian debt policy friends and family the nubs of finance the words interest payments in google books 180 the importance of the interest item surprise family income by source 1988 the true meaning of capital all that remains where no output is produced one sector s gain is and finance was growing the whole time cost pressure a quick look at household debt cost push inflation cost push cost pressure you d have to wrinkle your nose when you say it t the way the cookie crumbles lindblom an insufficiently studied phenomenon a better dream november 17 october 13 september 6 august 4 july 9 june 12 may 4 april 11 march 22 february 15 january 24 2021 204 december 8 november 21 october 15 september 17 august 11 july 13 june 22 may 19 april 17 march 22 february 18 january 21 2020 139 december 20 november 20 october 8 september 11 august 13 july 8 may 2 april 18 march 16 february 19 january 4 2019 202 december 9 november 13 october 18 september 15 august 16 july 20 june 18 may 15 april 27 march 25 february 12 january 14 2018 202 december 12 november 13 october 20 september 11 august 8 july 8 june 19 may 20 april 30 march 31 february 30 labels gothedistance 1966 3 inflation target 400k smoothing an alternative to the wage push inflation thesis apr13 arnold j toynbee attitude brooks adams civilization and decay calculating lab...