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flies every species is affected in different ways by changes in the environment and it cannot be inferred that there is a consistent decrease across different insect groups when conditions change some species adapt easily to the change while others struggle to survive 27 a march 2019 statement by the entomological society of america said there was not yet sufficient data to predict an imminent mass extinction of insects and that some of the extrapolated predictions might have been extended well past the limits of the data or have been otherwise over hyped 28 for some insect groups such as some butterflies moths bees and beetles declines in abundance and diversity have been documented in european studies these have generally led to an overall pattern of decline but there are variable trends for individual species within groups for instance a minority of british moths are becoming more common 29 other areas have shown increases in some insect species although trends in most regions are currently unknown it is difficult to assess long term trends in insect abundance or diversity because historical measurements are generally not known for many species robust data to assess at risk areas or species is especially lacking for arctic and tropical regions and a majority of the southern hemisphere 28 in march 2019 chris d thomas and other scientists wrote in response to the apocalyptic insectageddon predictions of sánchez bayo we respectfully suggest that accounts of the demise of insects may be slightly exaggerated they called for joined up thinking in responding to insect declines backed up by more robust data than was currently available 15 global estimates edit insects with population trends documented by the international union for conservation of nature for orders collembola hymenoptera lepidoptera odonata and orthoptera a 2020 meta analysis found that globally terrestrial insects appear to be declining in abundance at a rate of about 9 per decade while the abundance of freshwater insects appears to be increasing by 11 per decade the study analysed 166 long term studies involving 1676 different sites across the world it found considerable variations in insect decline depending on locality the authors considered this a hopeful sign as it suggests local factors including conservation efforts can make a big difference the article stated that the increase in freshwater insects may in part be due to efforts to clean up lakes and rivers and may also relate to global warming and enhanced primary productivity driven by increased nutrient inputs 12 however the data selection and methodology of the article were criticised in several publications 16 17 30 and the article now has an editorial expression of concern 31 in 2022 66 researchers conducted a survey of 3331 biodiversity experts meaning scientists who published a study on the subject of biodiversity over the past decade this included 629 experts in terrestrial and freshwater invertebrates on average they believed that around 30 with an uncertainty range between 20 and 50 of these species are or have been threatened with extinction including the species which had already gone extinct since 1500 as insects account for the vast majority of the world s invertebrates this figure by extension applies to them as well 13 a 2019 survey of 24 entomologists working on six continents found that on a scale of 0 to 10 with 10 being the worst all the scientists rated the severity of the insect decline crisis as being between 8 10 32 global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services edit main article global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services the intergovernmental science policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services reported its assessment of global biodiversity in 2019 its summary for insect life was that global trends in insect populations are not known but rapid declines have been well documented in some places local declines of insect populations such as wild bees and butterflies have often been reported and insect abundance has declined very rapidly in some places even without large scale land use change but the global extent of such declines is not known the proportion of insect species threatened with extinction is a key uncertainty but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10 percent 11 in 2022 some researchers had expressed concern about the apparent mismatch between this tentative ipbes estimate and that of 629 experts on invertebrate biodiversity they surveyed which was closer to 30 they argued that more investigations into insects and other hyperdiverse and understudied taxa are urgently required to clarify the matter 13 causes edit see also environmental impact of pesticides destruction and pollution edit the causes of the declines in insect populations and their relative importance are not fully understood they are likely to vary between different insect groups and geographical regions 33 a study placed these causes in the order of importance as follows i habitat loss and conversion to intensive agriculture and urbanization ii pollution 34 mainly that by synthetic pesticides and fertilisers iii biological factors including pathogens and introduced species and iv climate change 35 light pollution also plays a role 7 8 9 other factors that are thought to be important are anthropogenic noise introduced species 36 6 and eutrophication from fertilisers the use of increased quantities of insecticides and herbicides on crops have affected not only non target insect species but also the plants on which they feed for example a review in 2017 commented on a large study in germany about insect population decline as follows the authors of the german study were not able to link the observed decline to climate change or pesticide use although agricultural intensification and the practices associated with it were however suggested as likely to be involved in some way 4 climate change edit climate change and the introduction of exotic species see climate change and invasive species that compete with the indigenous ones put the native species under stress and as a result they are more likely to succumb to pathogens and parasites 27 plants grow faster in presence of increased co 2 due to the co 2 fertilisation effect but the resulting plant biomass contains fewer nutrients 37 while some species such as flies and cockroaches might increase as a result 6 the total biomass of insects is estimated to be decreasing by between about 0 9 to 2 5 per year 38 12 this section is an excerpt from extinction risk from climate change insects edit insects account for the vast majority of invertebrate species a 2018 science magazine paper estimated that at 1 5 c 2 7 f 2 c 3 6 f and 3 2 c 5 8 f over half of climatically determined geographic range would be lost by 6 18 and 49 of insect species with this loss corresponding to 20 likelihood of extinction over the next 10 100 years according to the iucn criteria 39 40 a 2020 long term study of more than 60 bee species published in the journal science found that climate change causes drastic declines in the population and diversity of bumblebees across the two continents studied independent of land use change and at rates consistent with a mass extinction when 1901 1974 baseline period was compared with the 2000 to 2014 recent period then north america s bumblebee populations were found to have fallen by 46 while europe s population fell by 14 the strongest effects were seen in the southern regions where rapid increases in frequency of extreme warm years had exceeded the species historical temperature ranges 41 42 in 2024 a major review paper projected likely extinctions of 14 to 27 insects under rcp 4 5 by the year 2070 and 23 to 31 under rcp8 5 43 methodology edit three principal metrics are used to capture and report on insect declines abundance simply put the numerical total of individual insects depending on context it can refer to the number of insects in a particular assembly in a geographical area or the sum total of insects globally regardless of which species the individuals belong to biomass the total weight of insects again regardless of species biodiversity the number of extant insect species depending on context a reduction in biodiversity can mean certain species of insects have vanished locally though it may mean species have gone totally extinct across the entire planet 44 12 6 most of the individual studies tracking insect declines report just abundance others just on biomass some on both and yet others report on all three metrics data directly related to diversity loss at global level is more sparse than for abundance or biomass declines estimates for diversity loss at a planetary level tend to involve extrapolating from abundance or biomass data while studies sometimes show local extirpation of an insect species actual world wide extinctions are challenging to discern in a 2019 review david wagner noted that currently the holocene extinction is seeing animal species loss at about 100 1 000 times the planet s normal background rate and that various studies found a similar or possibly even faster extinction rate for insects wagner opines that serious though this biodiversity loss is it is the decline in abundance that will have the most serious ecological impact 44 12 6 45 in theory it is possible for the three metrics to be independent for instance a decline in biomass might not involve a decrease in abundance or diversity if all that was happening was that typical insects were getting smaller in practice though abundance and biomass tend to be closely related typically showing a similar level of decline change in biodiversity is often though not always directly proportional to the other two metrics 12 6 some studies find cases where in certain locations change in biodiversity is inversely proportional to the other metrics for example a 42 year study of insects in the pristine breitenbach stream near schlitz which is believed to have been unaffected by anthropogenic decline related causes except for climate change found that while abundance of insects decreased biodiversity actually rose especially during the first half of the study 46 survey results for specific regions edit united kingdom edit the rothamsted insect survey at rothamsted research harpenden england began monitoring insect suction traps across the uk in 1964 according to the group these have produced the most comprehensive standardised long term data on insects in the world 47 the traps are effectively upside down hoovers running 24 7 continually sampling the air for migrating insects according to james bell the survey leader in an interview in 2017 with the journal science 10 between 1970 and 2002 the insect biomass caught in the traps declined by over two thirds in southern scotland although it remained stable in england the scientists speculate that insect abundance was already lost in england by 1970 figures in scotland were higher than in england when the survey began or that aphids and other pests increased there in the absence of their insect predators 10 a 2014 review noted of all insects with iucn documented population trends 203 insect species in five orders 33 are declining with strong variation among orders in the uk 30 to 60 of species per order have declining ranges insect pollinators needed for 75 of all the world s food crops appear to be strongly declining globally in both abundance and diversity which has been linked in northern europe to the decline of plant species that rely on them the study referred to the human caused loss of vertebrates and invertebrates as the anthropocene defaunation 45 25 anecdotal evidence for insect decline has been offered by those who recall apparently greater insect abundance in the 20th century entomologist simon leather recalls that in the 1970s windows of yorkshire houses he visited on his early morning paper round would be plastered with tiger moths attracted by the house s lighting during the night tiger moths have now largely disappeared from the area 48 another anecdote is recalled by environmentalist michael mccarthy concerning the vanishing of the moth snowstorms a relatively common sight in the uk in the 1970s and earlier moth snowstorms occurred when moths congregated with such density that they could appear like a blizzard in the beam of automobile headlights 49 in 2004 the royal society for the protection of birds organised a big bug count issuing splatometers to about 40 000 volunteers to help count the number of insects colliding with their number plates they found an average of one insect per 5 miles 8 km which was less than expected 50 51 germany edit malaise traps in german nature reserves 1 in 2013 the krefeld entomological society reported a huge reduction in the biomass of insects 4 caught in malaise traps in 63 nature reserves in germany 57 in nordrhein westfalen one in rheinland pfalz and one in brandenburg 52 53 a reanalysis published in 2017 suggested that in 1989 2016 there had been a seasonal decline of 76 and mid summer decline of 82 in flying insect biomass over the 27 years of study the decline was apparent regardless of habitat type and could not be explained by changes in weather land use and habitat characteristics the authors suggested that not only butterflies moths and wild bees appear to be in decline as previous studies indicated but the flying insect community as a whole 1 4 54 55 56 scientists stated in 2019 in 2017 a 27 year long population monitoring study revealed a shocking 76 decline in flying insect biomass at several of germany s protected areas hallmann et al 2017 this represents an average 2 8 loss in insect biomass per year in habitats subject to rather low levels of human disturbance which could either be undetectable or regarded statistically non significant if measurements were carried out over shorter time frames worryingly the study shows a steady declining trend over nearly three decades 6 according to the economist the study was the third most frequently cited scientific study of all kinds in the media in 2017 it pushed the governments of germany and the netherlands into setting up programmes to protect insect diversity 57 the british entomologist simon leather said that he hoped media reports following the study of an ecological armageddon had been exaggerated he argued that the krefeld and other studies should be a wake up call and that more funding is needed to support long term studies 4 26 58 the krefeld study s authors were not able to link the decline to climate change or pesticides he wrote but they suggested that intensive farming was involved while agreeing with their conclusions he cautioned that the data are based on biomass not species and the sites were not sampled continuously and are not globally representative puerto rico edit a 2018 study of the el yunque national forest in puerto rico reported a ...