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f nuclear weapons that s not on the table obama ill was responding to a question by the associated press about whether there was any circumstance in which he would be prepared or willing to use nuclear weapons in afghanistan and pakistan to defeat terrorism and bin laden there s been no discussion of using nuclear weapons and that s not a hypothetical that i m going to discuss obama said when asked whether his answer also applied to the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons he said it did by the afternoon clinton n y had responded with an implicit rebuke presidents should be careful at all times in discussing the use and nonuse of nuclear weapons she said adding that she would not answer hypothetical questions about the use of nuclear force but whether the obama policy ball eventually stops on black or on red upon the spinning wheel of political fortune colby s point about an emerging doctrine of expanded deterrence is probably a valid one here is the bluntest and most direct expression of the concept the words are from the hoover paper the emphasis is mine reports suggest that al qaeda is plotting wmd attacks against the west from its hideouts in the northwestern regions of pakistan the pakistani army has made halting ineffective efforts to track them down many in the area are likely hiding or at least complicit in hiding members of al qaeda yet perversely these individuals most likely either fear or sympathize more with al qaeda than the faraway americans and our apparently unintimidating sometime allies in the pakistani army how does it make sense that it is the american people rather than the relevant inhabitants of the frontier provinces of pakistan who must bear the risk of an attack launched by al qaeda elements sheltered in this very region expanding deterrence would redress this imbalance instead of permitting individuals and entities engaged in protecting or abetting terrorists to be bystanders this policy would force them to bear the risk of retaliation in the event of a catastrophic attack this would strongly incentivize those potentially implicated either to take action on our behalf or at least not cooperate in hostile activities the same logic would apply to those in the pakistani inter services intelligence agency and other elements in pakistan who have protected and fostered al qaeda in the event of a catastrophic al qaeda attack against the u s homeland the united states would having set out this policy therefore have the moral and strategic rationale to retaliate not only against al qaeda members themselves but also against those whose cooperation material support complicity or gross negligence made the killing of thousands of americans possible legitimate targets of american retaliation would now include supporters facilitators moneymen back office workers and onwards as well as infrastructure housing food and other supplies land political control over territory marks of prestige and so forth depending upon need and the degree of culpability american options would include detention capture confiscation disabling humiliation pressuring all the way up to but not necessarily emphasizing or even including military operations colby argues on classical grounds that for such a deterrent to be effective it has to be credible there has to be no doubt among allies who may shelter under the american nuclear umbrella and the enemy that america will carry out the threatened response but leaving obama aside can anybody in this politically correct world really believe it will be carried out colby himself has doubts the credibility of a deterrent threat is vital to its success yet the threat to expand our retaliation beyond those directly responsible might strike our opponents and others as incredible the hoover paper categorically rejects this policy as the threat of collective punishment describing it instead as a policy that carefully and reasonably expands the definition of guilt it is not a policy that targets the innocent readers of the belmont club will be familiar with posts which have dealt with the concepts discussed in the hoover paper such as the ghost of aq khan the return of danger and of course the granddaddy of them all the three conjectures there are two problems in particular which are not closely examined by the hoover paper the first which was raised by the three conjectures is whether there is any stable stopping point if a wmd exchange is initiated implicit in the hoover paper is the idea that terror and let s be frank here islamic terror can be restrained by its larger social milieu that somehow threatening supporters and marks of prestige can put the damper on osama bin laden and his ilk or at least incentivize the grand muftis of whatever mosque to cool their hotheads i hope that control exists but i will argue that it is far from clear that it does the second problem is what course small non nuclear states should follow in a world of deniable nuclear weapons singapore for example and germany according to some would be examples of countries which could be subjected to nuclear blackmail if expanded deterrence is good for america why should it not be good for singapore which the regional enemy of islamic terrorism and if america will have difficulty credibly threatening expanded deterrence in the event a us city is destroyed how can any country credibly threaten that america would retaliate on its behalf against supporters and marks of prestige in other words muslim populations and mecca in the event singapore or berlin is reduced to ash if the vatican were destroyed for example who could be counted on to carry out the threat of expanded deterrence i have long argued that the advent of the terrorist nuclear weapon would present the policymakers with an unpalatable and almost noxious set of options the menu is so unappetizing that i argued in three conjectures that it was time to pull out all the conventional stops to prevent being trapped in a dilemma where the only choices were watching one city after the other go up in nuclear car bombs or exercising expanded deterrence but if there is no stable stopping point if the muftis or imams can t slam on the brakes then expanded deterrence will proceed until it is maximally expanded we don t want to go there so while we have the chance to alter the destination let s not go there but proliferation i later realized will change the nature of deterrence itself if al qaeda can get nukes why should it stop there why not neo nazis why not small countries who are vulnerable to extortion i have argued that once terrorists acquire the ability to engineer repeatable nuclear explosions then every country which can beg borrow or steal a nuke will acquire them for example if singapore saudi arabia or taiwan were persuaded a terrorist could attack them they would not rely on an american umbrella to visit expanded retaliation on the usual suspects no head of state could accept a reliance on actions which an ally might not even be able to carry out on its own behalf they would therefore get their own nukes and use them accordingly i don t think expanded deterrence will actually be seriously considered until after an actual nuclear attack on some country however elbridge a colby s discussion at hoover is a useful first step in escaping from the prison of obsolete strategic concepts and thinking through the problems of maintaining the peace in the 21st century even if the clarity comes after the fact a well considered framework developed now will be useful in restraining the panicked survivors of the washington policy establishment as they peel the charred skin from their limbs and pick the glass shards from their eyes maybe the act of thinking about the unthinkable now will motivate them into conventional action now rather than wait for the very uncertain later the belmont club is supported largely by donations from its readers read more posted by wretchardthecat at 6 19 2008 02 53 00 pm 94 comments wednesday june 18 2008 prince of thieves the guardian featured an atmospheric piece on how the prince of marbella monzer al kassar a man on the most wanted list of iraq lived you could do worse the observer tracked him down to his lavish 15 suite residence designed like a renaissance palazzo overlooking puerto banus guards swing the gates open to allow guests into the estate where there is a swimming pool built like a four leaf clover three spanish mastiffs prowl during the night to deter uninvited guests inside the palace a grand piano is showcased at the bottom of a marble staircase under a domed skylight in the grand salon silk flowers are arranged in a giant chinese vase in front of a marble fireplace statues of servants holding lamps stand before the massive drapes and on the wall are murals of african servants in turbans carrying platters of fruit not bad for a man associated with the achille laura shipjacking whose walls are adorned with photographs of him shaking hands with uday hussein members of the somali aideed clan abu abbas up on hashish smuggling charges in the uk mentioned in connection with iran contra said to have sold anti ship missiles to teheran and with supposed side businesses supplying terror groups in latin america and iran backed militias while some might to object to his choice of friends monzer al kassar is cheerfully broadminded kassar admits that a lifetime in the arms business has led to a variety of acquaintances i met interesting people good people bad people how do i know who s good and who s bad this is a matter of opinion the bad people for you may be the good people for me who s good and who s bad if you weren t good to monzer it was definitely bad for you the pbs blog tells this droll story of what happened when mere policemen tried to put the collar on the prince of marbella in 1992 spain arrested al kassar on charges of piracy and providing the arms to the abu abbas led plf terrorists who hijacked the achille lauro cruise ship and murdered american leon klinghoffer western intelligence agencies concluded that al kassar flew abbas to safety aboard one of his private planes after the hijackers surrendered one prosecution witness ahmed al assadi while spending time in vercelli prison for participating in the hijacking changed his story and refused to go to spain to identify al kassar as the person who supplied the hijackers weapons after al kassar s arrest another accuser ismail jalid fell to his death from a fifth story window in marbella spain in what the coroner called an alcoholic coma during the 1995 trial in a highly publicized standoff with police a third witness s children were kidnapped by colombian drug traffickers shortly before he testified the witness blamed al kassar who denied involvement and stated i have nothing to do with the kidnapping and i hope that it is over as soon as possible children are sacred for arabs no one not even your worst enemy deserves this al kassar was later acquitted of all charges the really interesting thing about the underworld life is how often coincidences routinely happen how many people do you know who will stagger up from an alcoholic coma and pitch themselves out of five story windows fortunately for most of us civilians there are people who don t believe in coincidences and a lot of them apparently work at the dea who asked themselves now what kind of person would monzer al kasser hang out with the answer they came up with was the kind of people looking to buy uranium among the more explosive revelations from the laptops of the late farc leader raul reyes is the allegation that the farc was trafficking in radioactive materials and according to colombia s vice president was planning to build a dirty bomb that meant farc had money to burn and monzer was going after some of it after all castles in spain don t come cheap and a man s got to make a living according to the drug enforcement agency s press release international arms trafficker extraordinaire victor bout was arrested for plotting to sell weapons to the farc not knowing that the reputed farc representatives were in fact working for the dea only nine months ago another notorious international arms dealer monzer al kasser was arrested for conspiring to sell weapons and trainers to the farc when in fact the farc buyers were in fact dea operatives for al kasser who has been linked to the palestine liberation front the group responsible for the achille lauro hijacking as well as leading baathist figures from syria and iraq it was more than just business he offered to raise an army to assist the farc al kasser seems to have had a passion for his work the details of monzer s tender to farc make interesting reading a dea release is a tale of ships missiles and mercenaries during their consensually recorded meetings kassar ghazi and moreno godoy provided the css with among other things 1 a schematic of the vessel to be used to transport the weapons 2 specifications for the sams they agreed to sell to the farc and 3 bank accounts in spain and lebanon that were ultimately used to conceal more than 400 000 from dea undercover accounts that the css represented and kassar ghazi and moreno godoy believed were farc drug proceeds for the weapons deal during their meetings with the css kassar ghazi and moreno godoy reviewed nicaraguan end user certificates that were used to make the weapons deal appear legitimate kassar also promised to provide the farc with ton quantities of c4 explosives as well as expert trainers from lebanon to teach the farc how to effectively use c4 and improvised explosive devices commonly referred to as ieds in addition kassar offered to send a thousand men to fight with the farc against united states military officers in colombia he offered to supply strela 2m manpads that could be used against us helicopter assets operating in support presumably of the colombian government farc is a major insurgency and controls or influences an area larger than some european countries the dea documents suggest it was planning some major fireworks even so what developments pushed farc into planning its buildup just now was it fantasy or a serious plan had they acquired major new allies internationally or in the region when monzer and bout s trial opens the public may get to find out the belmont club is supported largely by donations from its readers read more posted by wretchardthecat at 6 18 2008 06 58 00 pm 42 comments chumchumal just why exactly did barack obama suddenly become concerned with providing security for iraqi reconstruction in april 2004 i look at the question at pajamas media here s obama in april 2004 what exactly happened at around that time that might be of interest here s what i think and try to document in the pajamas media article the shifts in barack obama s policy toward iraq show a remarkable correlation with the rise and fall of tony rezko s business prospects in the chamchamal power plant as the story...